Typhoon Tip

averaging about .75 so far from this event around town, all of which has fallen since midnight. Just off the top the head that's the most in a 24-hr period since maybe the end of June. Someone S of the Pike near the border of NE CT is choking in a water boarding-

This always seems to happen to me. The prophetic 'water cooler,' seemingly innocuous statement meant purely in jest ends up just f'n happening. My neighbor and I were discussing the frivolity of "drought" in New England, not more than a week ago - prior to this ordeal even materializing in guidance. I said to the guy, "...Climate has a way of finding its way back to normal - right? whether that is done all at once, or over an extended series of events, some how some way, we always seem to end up where we're supposed to be" ... The impetus being, it is almost impossible to finish a year with only 5" of water Maybe this is taking the all at once road? Speaking of models, assuming this does go on to 4-7" and so forth, the Euro takes the prize for first awareness. Whether it vacillated after the fact ( they all do anyway ) that guidance picked this up pretty coherently last Thursday. Just sayn' I was on the fence with this in all honesty. I think I've expressed both ends of the pro and con... pretty much even in both directions. I never liked the general weak synoptic forcing. Models were jumping around with location/max too much, too - a continuity signal that sometimes means too much, just as often as it can be ominous. They also disagree. The Euro likes roughly SE VT to N.. RI for 2.5 to 3.5" ... while the GFS is insisting on nearly double those amounts, hammering much of CT/ HFD to NYC. The NAM? ...two runs in a row of 6-8" pretty much pan-dimensional HFD-PVD to CON NH is going to be a neat test - but that model takes synoptic 101 for audit anyway.. . Point being, these disparities are just glaring enough that this is a nerd's porn for model competition. It may be the common theme is that the models don't do as well in weaker synoptic mechanisms. They need that "loud" physical scaffolding to perform better. That does not mean no big event though... It's been a sneaky difficult forecast effort here. There's a gap there ... where big parameters coincide with weak forcing sometimes does, and some times does not bring hell. I do/did like the notion of PWAT pooling along a stationary boundary - those tend to overproduce. That thing in Kentucky several weeks ago is an example ... ( though that's not intended as an analog). These dense theta-e concurrent with slow moving and/or diffuse frontal convergence ...man, once triggered, it's sort of like the 'atmospheric dam' breaks.

I wondered about that Essex Co...

Lol... heh, I dunno about that, but I agree the 6-8" is ludicrous. What this is, is a modest synoptic forcing with convective modulation mixed in. The models can't pin point where those modulation points will be...but more than less 'recognize' the intrinsic potential. So someone walks by and slaps the side of the cray and that's all the trigger it needs in the super computer LOL. I can see 2-3" as the general potential, with the caveat in mind that this has a higher order for uncertainty than is normal for short duration lead. So if it is 1.5" or 4" that range is in (unfortunately) a broader envelope of possibilities.

The GFS is ironically loading Tolland CT in with the max band of 6 to 8"

Handful of 88/65ies out there... Feelin' it

kind of a neat feature here. you can see the cold air being favorably drawn down the Champlain Valley - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Vermont-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Yeah...looking at this more, kind of a duh factor pops out. Time. ...length thereof ... A miasma of thick mist with light rain falling through a PWAT saturated low level, with occasional embedded moderate bursts ...all lingering onward toward 30 hours would also add up. Sort of out of shape/rusty for durational QPF events given this last 6 months of life around here. Anyway, we'll see. I still don't like the Euro layout.

It's interesting that this product shows a clear preference to topography - That's fine, but it's not like a we have a standard deviation easterly long fetch of PWAT moisture coming headlong into those elevation bands... I don't like that the Euro is doing that without actually carrying along those necessary anomalous parameters. The flow/mechanics just seem too weak to manifest that kind of layout.. Not that anyone asked me but that layout appears too organized for this. The overwhelming/blend therein for this has been for a weak synoptic forcing. It's operating through a 2" (general) PWAT air mass, so just a little lift over the slow moving boundary ...yeah, it should fill in for time.

This may end up down in S. Pa and NJ

right ..it's 5

man you realize the entire state of Montana is in a red flag advisory.

It's not so much south comparing those two QPF layouts to my eyes. This 12z run's just less in areal coverage. The axis of heaviest is really unchanged. I think that may be "sorta" telling ? - the shrinking This whole ordeal lacks very strong synoptic forcing. The models see the instability with pooling PWAT along the boundary and so forth, but then the physical processing might be too sensitive in ending up with those heavier pervasive results out in time, because it's relaying process from the previous time interval that were overly fed-back. That's why as systems near, they sometimes "shrink" like that. This seems to be a candidate for modulating down as it gets nearer. But it's interesting.. .because, even though that may be true, PWAT pooling with a stalled boundary can then pig rain ...so you have competing offsets there a little bit. We could shrink the total areal coverage and still manifest local downpour proficiency.

Those fail-safe tech are closed circuited to the craft. There is no line of site - that's the easy "sci fi" there lol. But you're right about the manual control and "fear" factor.

Humanity just doesn't think outside the box enough. OR, they don't think morally responsibly - different gripe. But, it is within capability to outfit all locomotion conveyance means with automated shut down technology. Problem solved... Errant usage to accident prevention and back, from cars to rocket science, anything that demos uncontrolled or aberrant behavior, the stick freezes and in the case like this, the air plane's 'AI' shuts down manual control, takes over, finds the nearest landing facility and brings the fugger home. Tesla's close to succeeding in outfitting self-driving cars.... This wouldn't even take that same degree of complexity -

And it "only" took 20 years this time ... I'm sure we've all heard of the concept of copycat crime. Basically, some innovated deviant afflicts some new fresh hell upon some one or some thing and it catches the envy of the general background deviancy that is far more ubiquitous in society than society really understands.. Eventually, variations on the original deviant's opus start occurring. It was going to be a matter of time before 9/11 Kamikaze's would surface too. Probably would have happened sooner but ... heh, it's just a little harder of hijack air craft

I realize you said, "...One of the," because there are a handful of them out there - just so expectations are properly aligned with signaling. The Euro was approaching a historic D7-10 suggestion last night. It ejects a +20C 850 mb plume through NE during that time span amid a expansive circus tent heat bubble. And it does have at least conceptual backing by its EPS ens. We're losing the sun ...f'n fast now. wow. But I've seen it be 80 in early November from these sort of weird late seen heat release synoptics, ...to mention that happened in February's recently too... so I don't even know why I'm saying this... It can still get pig's bum sultry.

06z NAM blanks just about everyone NE of NYC

Well.. .that's 'potential' I'm not sure about the over ( personally..) The models tend to correct anomalies of this nature downward as they cross into the short range from the mid range. So I'd hit this a bit harder tomorrow if we get the benefit of consistency after having relayed .. That's my take on this. I worded it strongly in discussion write-up, saying the Euro's 6+" juggernaut yesterday was likely over -assessed ( not tough guess there..). But it did come down... This can come further. There is not a lot of mechanical forcing here so it's ....mmm a teeny weensy dubious.

and actually, that kind of belies this thing's potential. There's a pretty massive stripe just west of the SNE eastern end, that's 3 to 4" spanning much of N. PA and eastern NY... It's part of the same structure/synoptics doing this whole thing, so this isn't etched in stone. We could certainly crank that further east within model error climate.

it's only 1.6" or so though - I'm mean not to be a prig but this needs 4 times that haha

It is .. I'm also wondering if the ensemble means being shy of their operational version by a factor of ~ 4 should be a red flag, but this is also D4 at this point ( or less) and the operational runs are typically better in this range. hmm. Maybe this is just that sensitive so it needs a shorter term -

I knew it was just a matter of time before the GGEM tried to lure 'cane enthusiasts in ....

Bring it! ...I really want it. I do. I couldn't give a ratz azz about Labor Day...particularly when it's likely to be utopic through noon on Sunday. Who cares... But 5" of rain would go some corrective distance.

It's kind of a "shot before the shot across the bow" air mass.. But it's interesting how this segues into a week of +15 to +18 (at times) 850 mb thermal layout next week, after Monday's potential shits Which is really a nested anomaly. The larger circulation/super synoptic manifold is very much above normal while the worst of guidance depictions plays out from late Sunday through Tuesday. Speaking of which, jeez, the NAM? That's a Shawshanking. It has that BD mid 50s occasional light rain in a saturated misty gloom look ..rim to rim across Labor Day. I don't know what it is about the NAM - other than the fact that it is a piece of synoptic shit beyond about 10 minutes out in time ... But it somehow physically always manages to manifest the worst of all imaginary scenarios, within a plausibility framework in that time range. No matter what metric one is using it for Cold? it's the warmest model. Warmth? it's the coldest model. Nice weather? deepest boning of all guidance... It's weird. It's like NCEP created a perturbed turd just to like see what if ... ya know. Hell ..it could be right. If that high moving through Quebec is more or less weighty, probably determines if the front hangs up over Brian vs L.I. It seems Brian's screwed either way, which is certainly good... I guess ultimately I don't care. I'd really like to charge my lawn and the surrounding geology with a 2-3" dose at this point. Today through Sunday is fine and a reasonable compromise. Then next week we see if embedded/nested anomaly clears out in time to get one last run in with above normal.