Typhoon Tip

Just about right on the climo button for color-up around this are of Mass

"It doesn’t hurt here. I doesn't hurt here. It hurts riiight here"

Yeah if we decouple in time I think a pretty widespread frost in the interior it’s pretty likely early Saturday

Meh … drought in this area of the continental North America comes with an entirely different climate-base suggested connotation than it does in places like California ir the inter-mountain west or even in the interior southeast… We’ve been over this a million times but, we get dry episodes and it’s just something to occupy peoples time - I guess - while in wait for the preferred fanfare of winter to return. Yawner. that cold front coming tomorrow evening it’s gonna be a nasty whiplash… A behavior that is sort of in itself a hallmark that we are already change seasons because that is something that usually happens in winter. It may not show up in the sky or the trees or the air but I’m talking about the way the weather is actually behaving. Bit of a conceptual/spatial kind of take on matters but when you go from 70 to 75° to 49 … that steep of a corrections is impressive

We’re getting somekind of winter expression before the end of this very month it would more than merely seem. With say …, 60/40 or 40/60 of the GEFs EPS blend, respectively, would be unavoidable - we either snow and/or meaningfully load supportive whether the former actually takes place or not. Am aware the +AO but qualitative circumstance isn’t that clean nor simple. The hemisphere has been trying to enter the AA phase structure, during what appears to be an usually early and massive +PNA …(those indexes can become resonant in some cases) an aspect I’ve been seeing in the super synopsis, albeit vague/vestigial, since mid Sept …now it’s getting harder to ignore, in fact it’s actually coherent at this point. So I feel it’s time to mention. It’s not unprecedented and it’s no reach to assess snow plausibilities in Octobers… Particularly since 2000, the quantitative consideration has been proven relevant. Presently in the techniques, and the guidance envelope those are based upon … this is the most impressive early detection/expression for this autumn folding hemisphere phenomenon I’ve seen sine the era of October snow began - we’ll see where this goes without making any promises. Without it in the air … snow recreational industries may get a head start … This may also be gradient loaded with oscillatory behavior between transient near Indian Summer swaths replaced by rather -anomalous 850s relative to date The greater anomaly behavior being in the deltas. One of those loads probably favors eventually catching tweener disturbance in the open for snow hats on the pumpkin potential. airs of 1995 in the general abstraction

Yup. why they did away with the old format- Did the Trump administration hand a mandate down to suck balls? I want them sued and the Director of technology or whatever, that persons face to be smashed against a monitor until they’re an inch of consciousness. Having said that… What is “RadarScope”

I can’t stand that product… It’s got terrible resolution …horrible load times on regular PCs. The older format was better. But I’m not sure - I’m wondering if I’m not using the product correctly

Do you actually like NWS radar

It’ll be 74 Thurs at 3 heh just sayn

Yeah… Despite the meme- sentiment in here for 1995 and so forth… the thermal profile on the Nam looks like Thursday is gonna be a shocker - it may actually get above 75° with light SW wind under still tepidly warm October sun and no clouds. For places between New York City and Boston thatve been hung up between 47 and 55 in this April redux … that’s gonna be pretty sweet – Friday too

Lol, why not – autumn was dead

I was at UML at the time… Which obviously we know is in northeastern part of the state. Yeah 3 or 4” sleet snow mix actually My parents down in Acton was more like silver slush in patches. -gradient on that little minoring event. That smartly colder and as you intimated… Never turned back enough to melt back to bare ground around the campus. In fact I think there was another event before Thanksgiving it really sealed the earth under a sarcophagus of cryo-

Ho man … I’d be lying if I said I didn’t like the 1995 vibe to that extended GEFs that’s been sneakily emerging as of late

Same here dude, 'cept I haven't turned it on. House is actually 57 hah. Just back from a run and enjoying the cool, and then it's a evening sweater and bed by 10 or 11 ... If I can just get by through tomorrow, Thursday's gon' be 70, HFD-LWM and the windows go open. Must make the 15th -

Chill pockets getting pinched off from Canada early… It’s been a recurring theme over the past ten and in particular five years – don’t get used to it. Because it’s just as apt to fade into a winter paradigm that bears no resemblance to this, once the gradient of the hemisphere really kicks in and we set up a baseline Rossby signal. Or maybe we’ll just hold this and it will just get stormier and colder … I don’t know. Point is it hasn’t been very reliable to get cool air early. Not a very good indicator. Yeah I really should have the heat on in here my hands are getting cold but I have this thing every year where I try to get to October 15… I’ve lived in this house 10 years and I think this might be the second time I’ve considered doing so before that date.

But mid 40s here under cloud canopy and raw wind is a month too early. Granted it’s only 9 am but ew I’d like a sold week of upper 60s or 70 one last time before having to commit to this shit. With sun too. Man … looking at the NAM grids in the mid Atlantic tho … .2 to .7 every 6 hrs, none stop, for two days in life sucking chill … ‘nough said Let’s hope we can strand one of these deals in a December whence temps are well behaved.

Yeah perfect maple sapping wea - oh wait

I'd be encourage with that temp and prec distribution if I were a winter enthusiast ! Firstly ... that distribution suggests they are asking for a positive PNAP base-line stated ( that means more +PNAs than -PNAs) Secondly... that's likely to get compressed E as the most likely 'correction vector', nearing 40N and above latitudes. That would place the mean baroclinic alley of ill-repute right down our block of naughty affairs. Thirdly ... I'm proud of NCEP/CPC for having the courage to put out any kind of a chart containing the word 'below,' when in deference to either winter, or an outlook effort. That may in fact be the first time they've down that in 54 years ...kidding, but it is a rarer tact by them. Fourthly, ... just some supposition but ... they are bringing that look into the NP as far E as the western Lakes... despite whatever bias it is that preferentially keeps them banging out positive temperature outlooks as baser canvas. Without hitting the cafeteria at NCEP and opening a dialogue over lunch ... that's sort of implicating them as being bullish.

I had forgotten that event.. But now that I'm thinking about it, that storm was an under-performer up here along Rt 2/N Massachusetts. A singular event whose distribution served a microcosm of the season on whole. ...uh, I think? The 23.5" total at Boston and the yearly total ...belies the aggravation for winter enthusiasts - which ( lol ) cannot really be appeased... The distribution was odd, both in terms of spatial layout ( you know ..who got what/when), with most area not doing as well as a select few that were even above normal in some cases. That's the impression I had At a regional scale, I wonder how the winter did - taking all climate sites and inclusion of any validated ancillary data to give weight ..etc... I'm wondering if the winter was above or below average in both snow and temperature.

The resent wasn't directed at you or any one in particular. It was to address the vitriol, in general - I didn't frankly 'study' who said what and/or why and then filter it through the psycho-babble checklist of probable triggering motivations, intents and purposes LOL... I would like to contribute to a seasonal weather discussion - now that it is October - but came in here this morning and there's no real directive... blah blah

By the way, it's time for the new climate paradigm's October snow event watch ( read that with uneasy/unsure sarcasm -) There have been hints of this in the Euro as well. This is a trough specter that's been looming for several days, in the total Japan to Greenland side of the Hemisphere, in ens means and operational consistency and trends, in the time range below. Though it is awful ...awful early, the behavior is of greater importance to discussion - I think it likely that the bully anomaly aspect will correct/normalize some, while maintaining some semblance of a cold wave October style. We have competing concepts there... But, this 'behavior' should be watched for later this month -

I'm thinking skies and conditions will improve and be better for tomorrow ... just watching how this whole ordeal is behaving. It's already decaying the cloud tendency across upstate NY and C/NNE, and looping you can see it's suppression toward the S/SE albeit slowly. We've likely seen the worst this was ever going to offer. The wind may also be strongest nearer the coast, but once inland, ...a more suppressed PP exerting S will likely mean the easterly conveyor ends up S too, so places along the western side of the ORH hills (say) could end up with 57, lighter winds, partly sunny and actually on the plus side in terms of sensible weather. Sun's already carving through over NW CT ...and I don't see this going the other way. The large dominating synoptic circulation is going to overwhelm this thing. I'm also a little suspect about that latter sort of new cyclogen S of LI as impacting through mid week.

Ha ha. It gets worse? - you mean worse than "too late" ? Tongue in cheek: but too late's contextual sentiment should encapsulate a certain kind of ... "finality," beyond which ...there is no furthering existentially-based distinction LOL I don't know though. I think it's all an unkind numbers game, really. I mean, by the time this all comes to a head, we rabbit-humans will have bloated to 8 billion -altho, I've been reading that among 2nd and 1st world industrial societies, birthing rates are plummeting along multi-decadal scales. Seems to me, since these worlds are either directly or indirectly service/enabling most of that huge populations ... that tends to enter the argument that there are mechanism going that are capping [enter the ambrosia of reasons ] Most people have heard numbers that big when we audience to modern media's covering governmental fiduciaries ... or the elite 1% ... etc, but really? The average person does not dimensionalize just how big 7.5 or 8 BILLION BILLION BILLION ... really is. I'm babbling ... the point is, if the non-sustainability finally does topple all, numbers that big guarantees some survive - purely based on probability. The only way an 'absolute' realization, is to vaporize the planet - perhaps literally. Have the moon suddenly finish the collision event that began some 3.75 billion years ago, ...and technically is still happening ( in about a billion years, the moon's orbit will stop expanding ... and then slowly contract ...gradually accelerating, and 500 million years or so after that, will finish what Theia started ...) ... The sun will also be 10% hotter, too ... To mention, the shear probability of sustaining another billion years without a CRB in our local astronomical neighborhood truly scorching the Earth...and so on... It's all pointless. It's all over, already... But for the sake of here-and-now, and what we 'can' control - the pragmatic context is, do we annihilate our present way of living, ...sort of being confuses with whether humanity still has life. We don't need the above ad infinitum to force the former result. It's just after the after period of the aftermath.. .whatever gets around to still capable of fucking and borning babies... will probably just be much smaller numbers. Then, perhaps the sinusoidal nature of evolution will rise again into a favorable realm ...one that exists sans the present day's paradoxic tandem of insatiable self-servitude and glut being in conflict with ways and means by which it carries on. A future "utopia" ...

yeeeah, I get the teasing and fun - it's all good. Let's be clear, the Euro is not a bad model.

I've been monitoring this ... It's kind of both camps were right, and both camps were wrong. Not sure that means the GFS, nor the Euro/NAM tandem(blend) really deserve the win. In one sense, the GFS is likely to be right about the lower QPF totaling from N NJ to/throughout SNE, but the Euro and NAM were right about the extension of b-c leafing and what is actually "trying" to fall from ceiling. The rads been lit up with raging ... virga - (altho some is getting down) I think I recall the Euro doing this in a blizzard back ... oh, some 7 years ago. It was suddenly attempting to wall in 18" of snow through a 15F BL ...moving it along in a sustained 40kts of NNE trajectory over N Nj and NYC ... doing so with just 48 hours left before go time. Left NWS scrambling, because the NAM ( with it's typical NW bias that everyone ignores but apparently me for f sake -) was also agreeing with it... Nothing - oops. Oh, maybe they got a 1.4" of cryo-grits piled up along the base of telephone pools and parked car tires, in a general gelid gray tinted air, but it was an epic epic bust, because they really didn't have much choice but to buy-in. And so was foisted blizzard warnings. Maybe a little hyperbolic but something like that... Radar did have 20 even 30 DBZ returns fanning over top, that far west, but it wasn't saturating the BL. Anyway, this is not a winter situation, but in general... the Euro and NAM have a history of over playing the W-NW arcs of cyclonic influence. The NAM is actually the far worse of the two, though - On the flip side, I saw a lot of GFS runs with nothing into Massachusetts' latitude, and it had to bump N with at least measurable inside of 36 hour lead. That's not very good either.... I think it is right, however, in the suppressed behavior with the big high getting ready to pancake through CNE... Mooshing the PP will set us up ( by the way) good and proper for a nasty Sunday of 52 F with 32 mph E fetch gusts tossing soccer kids around the fields...