Typhoon Tip

Heh now out of nowhere there’s actual TWs line up across Africa. This flirtation in recent guidance with MDR maybe the flurry?

Something bizarre is going on with these long range models

Pretty good anyway but doing so in August …

98?

Preeety sure tomorrow bumps 1911 to 3rd....

fwiw -

how could they resist ...what, with CAPE of 5 billion - That's what it takes for us to go from general to marginal, 5 billion CAPE. no j/k

Looping this COD rad product's reflectivity mode nicely detects the BD in Maine...

Yeah I figured so... and when I read that I thought, after tomorrow ... it will bump 1911 to 3rd, and become 2022 as sole owner of the 2nd rank... I don't think Wednesday has much chance of even making 90 from what i am looking at - I think we have milk cirrus capping over 86/63 ...If we got a ton more sun than I'm seeing - which I dunno...maybe - Logan makes 92 or something. I mean not that you asked..heh. Someone was saying that Wednesday still looks warm to hot so just 2-cents.

There's more than one street of TCU ...the first of which may skirt S of you. But you can see on sat/rad that the patterns loading up with new one up stream - that may have a better chance. Notwithstanding any rogues in between. These are not corrective though. In fact, they are fast moving and perhaps adding fresh additional theta e to an underwear already sticking to the back of ballz

If the NAM is wrong about the clouds but right about the thermal plumb, it's 101 tomorrow in Metro west/Logan... You can see it at LGA ... 30000504928 -0996 112414 81332415 The aggregate ceiling RH's are all < 50%, with a WSW trajectory and a T1 of 33 C ... The 2-meter is likely 37 or 38 in that. The only difference between BOS and LGA is that the RH levels are > 50% in the NAM solution, which probably atones for the T1 "ONLY" being 32C up this way.

Nice... 97 at BOS at 16:54

... I'm so sick of the heat right now if we crashed to 58 I'd be dancing through the fields naked like Sound Of Music

Actually ..I took a second look and it appears there is more scouring. There's two features criss-crossing though. There's bowing punch toward the SW along the coast, which tend to be more west moving inland - that appears to be the 'front' BD. But then there is a bowing S of a [probable] region of rain cooled pooling. There a clumb of more aggressive CU where the nexus - kind of interesting meso features. Anyway, we'll see how far that all gets SW. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds guidance by 50 miles though... whatever the standard error for BL blindness is...

It's super shallow judging by these hi res vis features... There's a tiny fog front bowing along the boundary there skirting the coast but the CU field is floating over top without decay - it quite shallow, otherwise it'd likely abase those CU. But like we said it's probably just going to extinguish some momentum.. It's an easy corrective guess though. Are pressures rising up the Maine coast? If so, it may continue to creep.

Already getting some impressive crispy towers up and down Rt 2 ... Almost like that thunderstorm complex late yesterday left some sort of high sensitive micro boundary.

it's funny looking at the larger regional COD loops of the NE.... the outflow bows are hammering into the heat from the west, while the Maine BD's are eroding from the NE... It's like a metaphoric setup for the Visigoths coming over the hills to take down the Roman Empire. Those inward of the fronts ... oblivious, were still drinking lead tainted wine and engaging "Caligulian" affairs and whatever distracting turpitude ... Unaware that the world was closing in around them.

yup ..that's about my call too - Also, it's really neat to look out along the arm/ strata bank that extends E of roughly Bar Harbor. The northern edge is shearing away toward the W, and the southern edge is shearing away toward the E. Nicely gives a cinema of the circulation manifold around the boundary... god i'm such a dork

I mean is it worth it to consider 'category return rates' ? Does that matter? Does a TS reset the dial to 30 years...etc. I've often thought about that. Like, we may get a Cat 3 impact, I dunno...every 30 years or so, unless you get caught in the cookie tin with a depression and that extends your sentence another 30 years. lol. And what constitutes an impact -there's that, too. Bob I thought was a cheater. It was a Category three that by virtue of striking primarily the Cape, ...gets to count and we don't get one for another 30 years. What a jip job for storm enthusiasts... It's been 30 years anyway, just sayn' ... It kind of exposes a silliness in linear statistical reliance. Because what counts and doesn't count in each bucket -you know. Like, these TS strength coastal rakes, or the one in 500 year Sandy total synopsis ( not so much the intensity of the cyclone at landfall)...etc, must they count the same. If they do, we are way over budget and are fact way UNDER due. Where do the statistics end and perception take over in that debate - the latter of course being entirely subjective. Another aspect to consider ... if these TC histrionic predictions of increased activity in a warming oceanic world are true, maybe that shrinks the return rate expectation - or should. Either way we look at it, Long Island and coastal R.I. and SE Massachusetts have not experience a 1938 scenario, since 1938... I time in which comparatively, there is an "order of magnitude" more at stake in terms of population, both material and life, in those regions, that have [apparently] neglected the lessons of 1938. It goes without saying ... but, 1938 redux during an integrated oceanic heat content era that likely CC-attributable exceeds that which existed 85 years ago, may even add to that dystopian projection. And it doesn't have to be Long Island Express. I mean, a Category 4 hurricane accelerating toward the NNW coming in ablate to the NJ shore, would jam a 40 foot storm seiche right up the Hudson... Sandy was far from any perfectly destructive scenario. It was a lot of deadly unfun - no doubt. But as incredible as the specter was - that's a piece of shit compared to what's out there.

If folks want to check out this COD loop while it lasts... Focus along the Maine Coast. There a pretty clear suggestion of something backing down the coast up there already and it looks aggressive - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

This is going to end. Can't wait.... I'm done. Cooked to the core and sated with summer lore, it's no longer just a summertime thing sought if perhaps for being missed - we do so in lesser "degrees" than this, anyway. I don't need 97's jammed down my throat like Homer Simpson strapped to a donut stuffing machine. Thankfully ... all synoptic techniques appear we are nearing the doorway that leads into a regime change. I'm not sure how confident it is ... but, if things work out this collapses south tomorrow from N to S ... possibly heralded along by convection quasi training along the boundary - that'd be a nice bonus. Thereafter... the flow is tricky, but sans the western heat releasing. It is also coinciding with the perennial exit of the solar max that happens this week. That's more of an "event horizon" ( one doesn't notice the difference passing through the boundary, but we aren't ever going back -). That muse means that the 'hot patterns' are not going to get the same wattage of insolation. If the erstwhile pattern should attempt to reestablish itself, it will be getting less energy from the sun - period. It's a slow reduction so you can cook of course, but it's nicely symbolic that we appear to exit both the pattern and the solar. So what's next? Looks to me like the trough at the end of the week is losing that typical over aggression that the GFS was selling. Euro too, just less egregiously. That said, it seems the subtropical footing, overall, is deflating some around this side of the hemisphere, which is interesting on its own. The westerlies are still focused N, garland around the 60th parallel - more +AO looking... yet, the flow has these meanders or more like "weaknesses" sagging into the regions where it was straight up 588+ dm heights spanning many recent weeks. I like referring still to the outmoded PSU E-wall granularity for this sort of example seeking, because by virtue of that coarseness it exposes canvases rather well That 'sagging' trough is not really a cold transport mechanism at a continental scale, nearly as much as it is more of relaxation in the +anomaly mode. The deeper annotation much farther N is the main westerlies core, very high ... in fact, even for summer I'd venture that is a bit higher in latitude than normal. So what all that means is, it's not abundantly clear if these changes --and the gist of this is agreed upon by all guidance/ens means for the time being - herald in the long slow seasonal change. Or that summer's back is straining. I wouldn't think so...? I think it more reflects an intra-seasonal relax; we should be mindful of reload at some point. But, it won't be as hot if that happens.

WOW did Logan respond quickly once that brief overcast interruption wafted away ... 88/72 as of the 13:30 ob - notwithstanding validation. 10 after 10 is already an interesting aspect at that site... FIT 88 as well

Oh they are... over there vitriol ( for whatever reason..) foments faster and is disrespectful ... Op ed: ...pushing decorum in a sub-forum that's lost a lot of the earlier years of "internet tact." A tact that was fragile to begin with - people were just sort of being polite because ( it seems..) they merely weren't sure how to engage... But given familiarity to the engagement? - made them brave. And with that ... truer colors of assholier-than-thou now tint the social-mediasphere of the Web, exposing that probably in reality some 80% or more people are in fact c*!Z when operating in anonymity. Maybe it's just part of the whole erosion of mores and civility that is patently, clearly becoming more than a high-brow criticism of modernity - digress. For some reason, the Tropical sub-genre takes that sort of charming sociologic emergence, and puts it on cocaine. I'm being someone whimsy and hyperbolic here but there is some truth to it. It's a curious volatility in there, and one wanders into a minefield, where mere curiosity based statements is apparently enough of a footfall. No thanks. I think it's pretty easy assessment though, as to why. I mean, you kinda sorta danced around why there. "...at least with winter weather we score bigger ticket events on a semi regular basis" Hurricane are roughly 10 to 25% of the areal impact of a typical mid latitude snowfall, with enough error in the latter that when a snow fall map and impact region is charted at D5, there is room to negotiate. Verification moves around often enough that if one is close, it "pacifies" their angst with a ZANAX dose of 'we still got a chance.' This is true with all other phenomenon, even convection. Because thunderstorms effect larger regions, where everyone still has a chance... etc. That's not so much the case with TCs... Being small, in an ever improving arena of modeling tech now making D5s not all-together terrible ... that sort of leaves a lot of people out of the party while maintaining them being close enough to here the band - so..there's a weird psychology of resentment that way.

Interesting test for '10 after 10' ... By trend, we should be knocking on the door of 90 already by the :54 read, but I've noticed these last couple of few days of this.. We seem to have a steeper slope in the curve between dawn and 9 or 9:30, then it tries to plateau with less d(t).. So, the rate of change may have a 2ndary negative delta making that less than an ideally linear projection. Yup ... lol, it's hot either way. It becomes a micro-meteorological 'OCD' dream with temperatures ... like, BED with an 85/77 ... seldom do we see an NWS site with a DP like that around this part of the country, outside of a rare tropical transporting synoptics, or very briefly after muggy thunderstorm. I figure this will prove the latter, and start mixing down ... but, we could see sites in that 94/74 range before they all correct to 69.4 while all home/Davis stations have 76... one of those layouts

Fwiw - that was a comment on the NAM... The hard numbers on the NAM grid were in fact the hottest of the stretch, for Tuesday, over Logan. Whether that materializes 2-m to 37 or not..I wasn't ready to render an opinion - it's the NAM ...still 42 hours out at the time, which isn't in that particular guidance' wheelhouse of never. The 850s were closer to 20C on the 00z run