Typhoon Tip

Right and we're still surfing the wave of over -application excitement that started pipe-curling back in the aughts... eventually it'll rumble to white noise and fade away into the table of just another in a plethora of available environmental factors. And then some other astrological awe of wonder will emerge and become the lever that propels someone's career and standing ..and then that'll get over applied...etc etc

The thing about SSW's ... not that anyone cares to know this, but my own observations have led me to downplay some of their significance. ( - per my own evaluation over the decades, now dating back to 2004 ..when I and anyone I'm leaving out first brought the phenomenon, along with the subsequent Arctic Oscillation forcing/correlations to the attention of Eastern) Or perhaps - they were more significant in the previous global paradigm? It just more in the way of informed conjecture so don't anyone that relies on them let it get your panties in a twist... Firstly, the data is readily available at CDC. There, and elsewhere by now, no doubt. But one can go look back to 1979 at that site ( at least), and observe every year since. One can see the thermal, wind flux in the U/V components, along with the wave functions that occurred during all winters. Now ...those that know how to identify SSWs: A, warm intrusion B, subsequent downward propagation of warm anomaly, and associated wind reversal ... will know that this "B" is perhaps the most important aspect in total manifold of SSW - those that actually correlate with the AO. Too many people see a warm flash up in the 10 mb level and set off these Tweet electrical storms and fluff their celebrity for the day .... wrong. Man.. it's mind-boggling that this propagation mechanical necessity can't seem to penetrate skulls ... C ...lastly, the correlation to the AO is lagged by as many as three weeks. Another key numeric/objectively demonstrated aspect that tends to not be included in the Tweeter's turn of phrasing.... Where was I going ... oh yeah, some observed aspects over the years: the SSWs that met the total 'checklist' above, correlated very well to -AO. One can identify the SSW, then ...go look at historic monthly AO (tabular or graphic -) and see the subsequent dip that took place. However, the din of the winter on whole, ...sort of hide the SSW/-AO consequences. I've seen -AO responses to SSWs take place in both predominating +AOs, and already saturated -AO winters. IF we are 'enjoying' the latter winter anyway, you almost don't see the temperature correlation even manifest at mid latitudes, because it's engulfed in an already cooler year. If the -AO happens during a +AO winter... yes, you'll see the -AO response more vividly due to deltas, ...but there is no clear way ( as far as I can see) to know if the -AO means cold more for Eurasia ... Europe, the western hemisphere. In fact, 2006-2007 demonstrated this sort of uncertainty. There was no SSW that year, yet the -AO crashed in late January anyway ... So what's the difference? It got cold and stormy at mid latitudes ... If an SSW preceded all that, ... it was going to do it either way. My recent sense of the SSW --> AO stuff is that it is just another factor that may help. If your in a miserable +AO winter... it may 'help' reverse fortune. There are enough SSW- AO winters in there that were more ghostly as an influence, though.

Interesting choice of pallet ...considering that both colors have been borrowed by modern vernacular to indicate machinery that won't work -

edited by Raymond -

What's it like there now? I can see the anvil canopy escaping E pretty quickly, but I'm not seeing a very convincing trend that what it reveals underneath will allow a lot of heating.. but, sometimes the sat can look worse than ground truth -

Ha... I looked at the mornong sat trends and just thought, ' ...not sure what guidance had for cloud products but this sucks'

I'm taking 70 -80/ 30 -20 blend of the operational Euro/GFS for this Monday through the middle of the week ...something like that. Both the 00z and 06z deterministic GFS solutions took a pretty hard step in the direction of the operational Euro's recent notions of non-hydrostatic hgt anomalies more E ~ along 100 -90W, as opposed to the previous notions of packing the -PNA ridge response back west toward what looked like a large error +PNAP orientation. I'm including more of these newer GFS trends in deference to climatology ... But also because there is 'panache' to recent hemisphere, as well as numerical realization combined, that argue for more jet exertion near the lower Ferrel latitudes - likely associated with early seasonality. So, slicing jetlets SE out of Quebec isn't a terrible idea ... perhaps delaying a Euro solution some. It's just that the GFS biases in this direction in the D5-8 range ... as far as I can tell, at all times. Makes that tricky. The GFS is also new to this idea of more -pNAP structure so it may still be 'waking up' With an 80/20 blend (E/G), does send an anomalous warm look into the OV/MA/NE regions. I don't know if that description's 'oh-my-godness' resonates with the present Kevin spin machine or not ... but, it doesn't look very autumn like. It looks down right summery. Noted that the operational Euro offers what looks like near historic high temperatures ..perhaps the 20th(Tuesday). But I don't know what records are in the area. Plus, this is D7 so..

It's been that way since 1994 as far back as I can recall, too - I mean, it may be better - I dunno.. Don't use the guidance much. It may boast good numbers or whatever, but it has this weird way of not doing so when one is using it for anything - or, apparently doing aMAzing when no one is looking ...

You know it's funny about this ice storm discussion .. I've often thought that the recent rather persistent speed surplus that's observable during these winter hemispheres, as being base-line favoring the icing phenomenon. Doesn't seem to be materializing that way. Or we're playing with it and are 'due' in the sense that we've dodged bullets. But, I also think that those longer duration ice storms ... the 1921 or 1998 ...or some of those in the TV last Century.. those are harder to set up because that velocity bias also tends to moving aspects along - it's harder to lock part of planetary wave space into an static overrunning scenario. Give and take in that sense.. I have seen an increase in those 8 hour icing events from fast moving flat waves - anecdotal.

Just a wild guess .. .but tomorrow looks like a low LCL spin risk to me. We got one of those diffused warm boundary smears passing through during the morning associated with the ejected Lakes trough/low. As that mess egresses through NNE during the day, that places a bit of a SRH anomaly through the region in the 0-3 km. Too bad the sun's weak sauce at this time of year. I haven't looked much beyond the synoptic basis, ... but the 500 and 700 mb streamlines suggest 0-6/bulk is more unidirectional in structure. But that low level looks veered in the typical regions of CT and east of the ORH topography. DPs are modeled into 72 F range - I dunno - SPC has marginal headline out as it is. Looks like jagged scud suck tending to twist to me. Surprised there's no thread - folks are grasping for excitement... nothin' else. Low risk for severe. Primary threat is damaging wind. But with high DP comes the built in notion that green tinting in rain shafts mean ponding in short order, too.

Ha ha! I was referring to the top graph on that site - which is actually an interesting metrical discussion in itself. Frequency of top time series relates ...well, its on the graph. AS for the other, I hadn't had my coffee yet, sue me

I was not referencing HC when I typed that paranthetical - the purpose, I have no shortage of imagination for hypothesis in general. Speaking of wading through humanities ... see how that works, Weatherwiz?

Nah ... the time serious is defined as the minimal TC (bottom) vs those TCs were > 64 kts.

Heh... right - You have to wade through a quagmire of humanities to before even analysis can begin. Everything now is knee-jerk assumed to be some device to leverage one's advantage, as oppose to sensing the virtue of their position. Personal successes may and/or may not be truly a part - but that's the rub.. One cannot presume, even though douchery is everywhere. Lol. Personal note: I think though that La Nina being prequel to the season, and the QBO ... those to leading projected metrics were objectively correlated to activity in the past. I think there is some decent basis for legitimacy re this season's predictive efforts. Easily encourages the notion along that the dearth of activity is related to other factors. I also think that the ACE slump since 2006 ... We should point out that the slump in ACE is surviving as an observation, straight through different QBO, as well as ENSO states. I don't know what these other contributing factors are.. ( I have willingness to off ideas), but in terms of what is proven. But that surviving observation - at minimum - proves the state of the art does not know every aspect that determines TC behavior.

thanks Scott! For the general reader, here are the series definitions: "...The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL. " Personal supposition, op/ed: Climate change impact on TC frequency and intensity is a fluid science ... still formulating. There are 'reasonable' posits out there, and papers are emerging. One has to choose to go dig those out and spend the time - one may have to roll up their sleeves and "learn how to learn" the material, as the vernacular and concepts are not necessarily pedestrian. From that same source above ... "In summary, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities have had a detectable impact on Atlantic basin hurricane activity, although increasing greenhouse gases are strongly linked to global warming... Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations." I personally lean in the not yet detectable side. There is no way that along these peregrinations of human scientific evolution, our species knows all that is involved in a causal inter-connectivity of a system that is pretty much non-resolvably complex. That's just prequel to even having the discussion. That obviousness dictates there are possibilities out there, merely yet to be objectively determined, that connect the dots between TC behavior and CC. Laughable. We are warming a system where TC are created and life-cycle: Does it really seem very likely those two phenomenon could co-exist in mutual exclusivity? From the same source above, there are hints that are pretty damning: "Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large-scale climate mechanisms including the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one-third of the overall calendar year global ACE." Two aspects that offer intrigue/ 'hooks' for science to spawn research, just within that bold text. The first is the 'historic low'. I don't like coincidences in this business, myself. When we are as general practice, in an era of 'never before records' falling like an avalanche, and attribution science routinely (objectively) constraining them to Climate Change, wending the globe to a status of historic low ACE becomes worth the inquest. The other is the reference to "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" That index has been stuck in the negative mode. The paraphrase article found here, https://phys.org/news/2022-06-systematic-pool-pacific-due-human.html ...discusses. If Dr. Armineh Barkhordarian's science is correct, we can not both have static -PDO attributed to CC, and PDO correlated to global TC behavior, and then say the TC behavior is not related to CC. Every time I open anything in the press and science community and read the latest and greatest.. .there are implications almost upon every turn of phrase that suggest everything, except no correlation - that is missing every time.

Do you by any chance know how to read this graph ? - I can see the y and x-coordinates, but I'm not sure how to interpret that double curve structure. Where do the top data points come from/mean. Same for the bottom. Obviously ...colorizing the difference between them bears significance, too ... but I figure I'd gather what that significance is if knew what top and bottom are. Maybe some basal state of the Hemisphere, then adding the TC's over top? We can clearly see the two lines move together so there's a relationship -duh

Really rather remarkable comparing it’s 12z run, to the Euro’s, for D9… just about as close to perfectly diametrical as could be physical achieved … and considering the enormous complexity that goes into both’s dynamical engines. It really almost can’t do that - yet … there it is

WPO/ N. Pacific circulation mode is trying to change out there in the secondary. Not sure if that's just seasonality stressing as physically exerting/detectable in the models, or if there's something of a real systemic reordering ( probably some of both) but that smacks as change. interesting... It would take awhile to transmit a signal around the way -

We had Earl and a couple of invests ...now, Earl's escaping and they've washed the basin bare. Nothing in the Basin imminent or invest-able, on September 10 is kinda odd

And at some point between the 15th of October and November 7 ... 55 degrees cooler with snow either in the air or easily air mass supported -

86/63 ... she's baaaack

I remember that event as moving too fast ... It was in an out in 8 hours. Synoptic wave with a ZR sounding around the N cyclonic arc. If I am not remembering that synoptic behavior right, I'm not remembering it right. But, I have seen a lot of those in the past 5 years... where we halted accretion about .1" below warning level, not because of warming but because the event ended. Certainly pretty, with llv pixie dust in the evening street lamps kissing the mood. Good ice storms require a quasi static synoptic set up .. protracted over days even. It would be very unlikely ( like a return rate of 1000::1) to observe the coveted dystopian fantasy of perpetuating 19 F while heavy liquid super cooled droplet water freezes with exceptional phase transition efficiency so high it's hard to measure much loss... fantasy. But ..it's about 'making up for it in the aggregate' - and time being a key factor. Ice storm mayhem enthusiasts should prefer reality, where is more apt to set up 29.8 F with somewhere between (light+moderate)/2 ZR. And the synoptic features are not moving fast. The big ones in history... usually the icing sounding scenario got stuck, "trapped" in the speed of planetary wave contention. Such that the wedging high imposed a steady state low level input of ( very important!) lower wet-bulb air. This latter factor cannot be underscored enough, as latent heat of phase change self destructs in-the-bank cold air to 32.1 There's two critical moving parts. However a region gets it done with the sounding structure ...that's 1. 2 is the ability to sustain it over an extended period. As far as 1 is concerned, ...that gets into local studies surrounding topographic and geographic features that augment in either direction. You're right that around here we have unique circumstance for rather intensely inverted soundings. The mountain orientation leaving a 'void' from D.E.M. to N NJ ( save for the ineffectually tall Watchusett region), 'sucks' the atmosphere back SW - usually this manifest in the 925 mb as a countering jet ...which we've talked about ad nauseam in the past. But that jet gets cranking and can impart -4C air in solid slab to the surface, with +8 at 800 mb...and that's actually too much ...you get micro inefficiencies in accretion due to weirdly warm particles, or you get PLs .. either direction depending on how deep the cold layer is. Point is, "relative" to a regions limitations or advantages, the over arc synoptic theme has to be compensating. I think there is a reason why places like SW over the continent are better ...because they don't have to have special compensating synoptics - they're are closer to an idealized flat surface rendering, while being circumstantially situated near the mean terminus of the wintertime polar boundary.

That -1 (2008) actually ruined that (or saved it depending upon one’s point of view) from being truly extraordinary.

https://phys.org/news/2022-09-multiple-climate-escalates-15c-global.html