Typhoon Tip

why don't you clean this thread up so it is worth while to engage ? - along with some sort of statement that this isn't a tennis match for validating egos, much less any kind of venue for one to try and establish themselves/earn celebrity while we are at it. jeez

That’s quite impressive two day trend in both the EPS and GEFs … re the pacific relay into North America/circulation construct. And hopefully for cold weather enthusiast that happens next month and we get another snow in October … no doubt followed inevitably by a highly compressed fast sheared warmer than normal winter with maybe one snow storm to hang our hats on…(sardonic). In the meantime … if the CPC Tele connector does not come around to a stronger positive PNA analysis/computation by now then there’s something wrong with that system because there’s no way those mass fields in the ensemble means of either reflect a mere neutral PNA from D6 to 11

Try to process this and keep it in mind also heading into the winter that the Nam has a northwest bias in the west and north west Atlantic cyclone routes and always has, for beyond the short term

… Agreed. Ex, it’s one of the reasons why that 2003 December event was so prolific right down to the Bourne bridge almost. If one goes back and looks at the synoptics in the NCEP/library and check out the sfc pattern, that +PP could not have been more ideally placed. … Huge diabetic inclusion from the south running over normal to that low ageostrophic feed, with easterly components at 850 mbar… = smoked

We just got to get through the next three months and we’ll see 80 in February again …

It may be more hit and miss… I mean I know you’re talking about your region but down here we’ve pretty much not experienced all together very impressive winters… In fact rather uninspired and torpid, with lots of lighter events tending to be offset only by one single event that flagships the season. I’m sure that other people covet perspectives that may vary on that some …but just saying in general.

Yeah not a forecast but … there’s evidence already that we are doing the folded circulation thing You know …there’s a fastening paper out there right now about this. I think it came out of ….I’ll try to look it up. Team a giant craniums with pulsating temple vascularity performed a quantitatively analyses … utilizing mathematics untenable to our sphere of sentience … that demonstrated what happens with expanding HC whilst warming polar domain … basically what I’ve been crowing for years. There is increased folding in the circulations. And autumn‘s and springs are particularly vulnerable to dramatic variations – including those that can occur snowfall at unusually early and late times relative to either season. But it also doesn’t last during the winter itself when the hemisphere gradient increases - it slips into a new paradigm and so far we’ve been hosed more so than not in everyone of those I think since the big February 2015. There’s a lot of orbital perspectives/philosophy concepts in that but yeah … don’t be shocked if it happens in either October or November followed by some kind of regression to something else regardless of the multi faceted dizzyingly complex papers that some of us on these social media platforms rockstar seasonal outlooks, too. Lol

Oh OK then… I also thought you were talking about the shit coming up the coast that’s going to ruin the weekend

Yeah again I didn’t look. I just assumed. I was thinking like 63 or something out there lol. But even at 60 I mean that’s a long fetch - it’s not like it’s coming out of a curve trajectory from Western Nova Scotia barely overwater and then bending back west into Boston. I mean it’s a flat long flow off of the Atlantic and I bet you the models are probably just gonna be wrong with the dewpoint then as it’s mixing with that marine boundary layer and then being transported west. Meh my guess but you know what…? Who the fuck cares because we’re talking about the difference between putrescent1 or putrescent2: pick

I thought the water was warmer than 53…? I haven’t checked. that almost looks like it’s going to be milder in Boston and Providence Rhode Island then interior sections due to the fact that the ocean is still above 60° just based on climo I remember when I lived in Rockport we had a onshore flow with wind and waves in October once, and the water got warm enough due to piling we were able to go in up to our knees and bang around in the waves a bit… (this is back when the dinosaurs roamed ) I mean it might cool off overtime anyway because eventually things are going to go more north north east. But in the easterly phase of this putrescence-

It’s a slow moving apocalypse … then in an instant we realize it’s too late

wonder if we're heading for a 'pin prick eye' looks like Ian's almost stationary in recent sat loops. as it drifts nnw/n it will be approaching some of the highest integrated oceanic heat content, world over. If shear remains low and more importantly...outflow remains efficient, ...whatever is forecast for intensity, increase it

the Euro didn't "fail" jack shit at 144+ hours in the TC prognostic space - ...get a grip

take this and shift it west maybe ?

Needless to say we have a lot of municipal and/or school-related field sport programs that are going on, on Sundays, pretty much everywhere... So yeah - might be worth it. thing is ...doesn't take a but a 30 mph outflow pulse gust with nickle hail sweeping across a non-suspecting soccer tourney to be an issue. Don't have to be 'tornadoes' per se.

We decoupled here ..albeit shallowly, in the Nashoba Valley region. Dead calm at dawn and couldn't fall below 42 ..44s. I mentioned the moderating 850s myself, yesterday, in a drive-by post, and it began really overnight. I'm wondering if the radiative potential was cut down already - more might have helped decoupling and feed-back. Looks like after this week we may neutralize the hemisphere of these convolutions and 'quasi' blocks. The PNA is neggie at CPC and all three ensemble clusters, EPS/GEFS/GEPS are neutering the negative 500 non-hydrostatic layout by D10. Zonal too.. Not sure I completely buy that, but should we move that way we probably flip back to milder look for a week. WPO all the way around the horn flat-lines zonal, while the western N/A mountain torque ridge expression floods east across southern Canada ... Heh puts seasonal migration on hold. Not saying it'd last.. .just is what it is.

It’ll be 65-70 across the Tri-state/SNE tomorrow. High terrain lagging … in fact the coldest core of this shot-across-the-bow air mass is coming through now…. It’ll be warming off the deck overnight from the W-NW … not atypical exiting anomalies. But, we should decouple - where that happens a touch of frost in favored local study/climo sites.

Seasonal loss of sun is the culprit.

Man this is some seriously resistant BD scunge inside this latex paint spill on satellite.

I hope some person sets up a GoPro and records one of those squalls -... I mean, 'if' that comes to pass. I don't frankly/obviously believe it will but it would be something.

I like the thunder grapple ending in 1/4 mi vi before sun bursts back out look of the 240 Euro over S. Ontario - wow

I'm trying to figure out why we are getting such a resonance response from the western Pacific heat flux/typhoon injection, so much during this period. Am aware there is generic correlation there but if you loop the Pacific broad scope anomaly distribution through D10 ...you can clearly see the constructive feedback - and it's doing it with exceptional coherence. It may be just one of those things ... but I suspect that's the question we need to answer. Granted ...it is the models, and nothing's actually verified yet - I've already outlined some aspects of known biases in the models in the range, which could account for some of the amplitude.

You have some competing concepts going on out there along the long side of the middle range. In once sense, the models have an objective tendency to see that range through an amplifying lens ... presumably, suggesting some 20% normalization/correction by the user - with the caveat in mind, 'extremes sometimes still take place.' In the opposing sense, the N. Pacific is being jolted by recent and future excessive latent heat fluxing. This is readily observable looping the 500 mb anomalies. Aft of this present period, through this present period, and out through D6-10, that is sending wave disruption cue rippling down stream through N/A. The models are still sorting that out.. In the near term, the outside slider down the California coast is an impressive anomaly evolution in its own rights, but can be traced back as a quasi direct/indirect down stream effect. In the D4 6 range, the trough amplitude over SE Canada is as well... Despite one model bias aspect telling us to tone it down ( particularly in the D6 range), and one signal suggesting giving weight to a deeper event wrt to that... I believe those can operate inclusively. In other words ...there will be trough, but there is a limit to how deep it will be. By the time we get to eastern N/A, it's pretty far from the forcing source over the WPO - N. Pac; combining that with over amplitude biases, that all argues convincingly enough to go anomalous, but not crazy. The Euro takes it too far/deep. The GGEM for that matter is as well... The ensemble mean of the EPS and GEFS have 2-day trended more amplified, and we'll see how that goes as the D6 passes inside the D5 "bias horizon" Why does this analysis matter? Because the idea of freeze is being sold by the operational runs, so that's an event worth covering. Also, "Fiona" lurking there.

I hope we get this hurricane with no 7 days of a modeling cinema before hand - that'd be an interesting sociological observation/experiment