Typhoon Tip

It does... but the last three cycles it hasn't so much consecutively

Nah... I think "the ointment in poster dreams"

Not sure it will matter this time ... as much as the last cycle... But, yeah, otherwise the previous had the mean typically west of the operational. This run now has some other issues I suspect -

Well ... fiction aside... our own Diagnostic individuals put out (ironically) this statement between noon and 1pm, which speak directly to the Euro... They are focused on the 00z run, however, conceptually ..what they are describing as concerns are HUGELY exemplified in this run (imho, this Euro run is suspect - ): "..As expected models are trending toward a common solution in the larger scale but there remains substantial differences particularly in the smaller scale especially in the spacing between the digging northern stream and the undercutting short-wave pivoting through the Carolinas angling toward offshore New England. The largest difference at this time remains in the 00z ECMWF with this phasing/interaction across the Mid-Atlantic early Tues; where the northern stream remains slow (typical of the EC) reducing the interaction/spacing of the waves and therefore slowing the rapid-developing phase of the lower level cyclone along the eastern seaboard (and leading it to be east initially). This slowness has been a negative bias at this time step for the last year or so...eventually trending toward the coast. The 00z ECENS mean helps to depict this being a bit stronger and to the west. After 36hrs and the arrival of the northern stream...the rapid development shifts the track west and more in line with the better consolidating surface cluster (including ensemble solutions) making it a bit more favorable to include in the preference...."

Here's a wild science fiction plot ... Supposin' the time-change f'ed up that run. Their model does this 4-D correction scheming, which is intrinsically containing some sort of time consideration ... 'what if' their ingest got weird because we sent them our data at a time they forget/or erred in correcting their grids for - ...

Well I was certainly wrong .. I thought the higher probability was for this run to come west but a small amount ... sort of visualized it solidifying Barry's idea above really - This is so discordantly out of sync with everything else I almost feel it can't be trusted. I'm not sure... ( I don't include the UKMET in any assessment ) The Euro organization doesn't release statements that discuss model diagnostics...

Well ... the Euro should be rollin' on in here soon. Hopefully shed some confidence light on matters. That 03 KM NAM that folks seem to have a lot of fun with, it actually came signficantly east of the previous cycles. The system it is managing, however, is so ginormous it doesn't seem to really change the QPF layout; in part that may also be that the system it contains is also stronger on this cycle... 965 range as opposed 973 .. etc. Also, the center jumping may be related to convective distribution out there at sea - I don't have a lot of experience with this model but I can assure folks, lows that deep don't jump around by some 100 naut miles every 2 hours... So, mmm... I can already see one reason why this sort of tool is probably more for amusement and/or the imagination in general ... at least as far as its handling on THIS event. Now that the after glow of the 12z meso's is passe... the Euro may tick some NW and help expand the upper ranged concerns to perhaps the ORH Hills up through more of NH/eastern ME. One thing I have noticed over the past two days... whenever the meso's went back west, the Euro's ensuing run came in more aggressive. Not sure why that is...but that pattern of behavior suggests this run has a fair chance at doing the same based upon that pattern alone.

That's nutty ... that thing has like concentric deformation banding... Almost wonder if that's resolving restoring force/g-waves and causing alternating bands of up down omega off-sets ... interesting.

Know what's amazing ... the GFS isn't showing rain -

I would really like the Euro to tick west with some additional depth.. I think it may - it's own EPS trend is disconcerting... Three consecutive cycles of edging the mean west, while adding members into the western spread (some at RGEM pressure depths!!!) is nothing shy of alarming. But the higher resolution, fully integrated operational version being inside that camp would better, and boost this from median confidence right up into higher ranges.. We are getting solidly into short term; it's time to schit or get off the pot. As is, I am high confidence for SE ...now E zone warning impact (concerns therein..), to advisory west of perhaps eastern CT to roughly EEN ... Up in the mountains, ...there is a pig tone of instability associated with that mid U/A deep cold pool ...and the surface high pressure anchored in MN while all this is happening (is a also a teleconnector for ACK lows btw ), will "stretch" the easterly flow because of the arm that extends east into Ontario to the N. ... That takes storm related/conditionally saturated air and does a number of them due to oreographics/upsloping... I also stress that this is still an evolving scenario. As others have noted...we may not yet have seen the best proficiency in phasing, which could still be yet to come. By and large and so far this 12z run across the board is about an erg of force away from this thing stalling while the N/stream collocates ... if that happens, we start backing arcing bands of S/S+ with 50 mph N gale gusts right down the PHL ...certainly NYC that could be in play already. But for now, we are not seeing that degree of full on capture - and sobriety requires mentioning, this could all still yet collapse more E/SE again.. .

Yup... right down the line of them... More aggressive N/steam notable at 24 hours ... parlays to way more proficiency off the M/A latitudes and then carries onward from there...

There's so much to talk about where ... where does one begin... I was just looping the 500 mb wind/vorticity evolution as provided by the 06z RGEM run, and I have to say...that would result, I believe, in a truly historic situation. Like a lot of big systems of lore and annul, that system would likely stall when that capture sequencing completes ... perhaps along our just E of Cape Cod. From there, heaving bands of snow would beginning punch SW across SNE and would effectively back down into the upper M/A... If you go back and look at other notable subsume type phasing (and probably 1888 could be included in that... as well as 1978 ... and so others that did similarly but were less note-worthy for having less impact), that is common result; areas from PHL-LGA cash in off these backward pushing arcs of snow that with strong N flow and mid level "magic" ...they end up doing pretty well. If I lived in that area, I would keep tuned into this thing, ...because should the more proficient phase (which these runs are coming in more and more in favor of...), then we get into a concern that down in N NJ and NYC and also Albany ... those regions could get advisory if not low end warning wrap-back snows. I could just see this whole thing correcting toward a more whole-scale inclusion of regions if this trend toward more total phase continues.

OH! ahahaha he got me, as I most certainly failed to read that altogether - good one....

Yup ...completely agreed... You could see way back at hour 24's thru 30 that the N/stream was nosing down more aggressively... I pointed that/this out early myself... I also think the S/stream is a tad stronger on this run, though I am not sure that is altogether important as a difference maker - The key factor with this particular event for impact profiling is nailing down the stream interaction and the proficiency of phase therein... The "weather" a storm will form question is a ship that's sailed... But for whom. This run is back to more phasing...

wait a second... is that an accident? Like, they were in the process of setting it up and pre-published it by clicking something prematurely - haha Not sure I'm seeing that ... But, tell you what: the EPS mean trending west ... if it did so again one more interval with so many members, that does up the question that perhaps all operational models have been underperforming along that key factor ... even so, I that may be too much

Yeah it's a good but separate point though - ... let us all remember not to get sucked into the NAM for god's Like I joked last night: > 10" = gospel That is the E-MC2 of social weather related media

That NAM actually goes so far as to paint what would have to amount to sleet rocks going sideways from eastern LI to the lower Cape and Island... at like 60 mph! Pretty much scouring the skin off anything unfortunate enough to extend vertical off the ground

... seemed like it... Just bustin' nuggets but you said, "oh darn it escaped east.." or whatever, and others have sentiments similar to unfounded doubt...

Jesus you guys ... let it marinade - you're all knee-jerking these "oh god it's not happening" neurosis and ending up wrong every time...

LOL dude... I am painstakingly writing paragraphs to describe all this schit and you come ... "NAM looks better" ... Yeah, I guess that works too -

mmm... I don't believe that is what is happening there actually. The N/stream is establishing dominance ...hence the term, 'subsume' and that imposes a reduction in systemic support for the existence of the S/stream in lieu of the N... you can see a new nadir of heights and DPVA genesis S of LI/E of NJ ...and that is the relay taking place... It's more of an "abandonment" than and "escape" -

That is absolutely fascinating what that just did at 39 to 42 hour there off the M/A!!!!! WOW - ..mid level wind/vorticity handling It abandoned the S/stream and imploded a new nadir S of LI ... I suspect that is the exertion/stress of the more aggressive N stream beginning the subsume process of a much more pure phase - yes ...I used "much more" there. I don't typically like to engage in these play by plays with rollin' out model runs but ... this is a uniquely interesting situation we got brewin' here

Slightly .... yup. It is also about 100 mi east of the previous model's run per interval over that region of the TV ...which has a feedback of more cyclonic orientation (spatially) with respect to the 30 hour N/stream being more aggressive, too .. That all suggests this should be more proficiently phasing ...we'll see how much so

yeah... this run's going to be coming up with a higher impact scenario... May be tweaking my "SE primary threat" assessment here shortly... If so, I'll change the title of this still young-ish thread to reflect a more realistic scenario... we'll see -

Yup ...good work! Although, not sure I would describe that as "much more" ...but somewhat would do nicely. And, that somewhat may in fact be critical - I suspect it is. This whole stream interaction/phase potential is exceptionaly sensitive to small scale handling like 'somewhat' more or less of this and that... That little bit seems to exponentially (for lack of better word) impact the outcome of the eventual west Atlantic total evolution out in time, either way, as demonstrated by different modeling types/cycles therein over the last couple of days. Even the king Euro's ensemble mean being more amped than it ... that may be the reddest flag there is -