Typhoon Tip

take this and shift it west maybe ?

Needless to say we have a lot of municipal and/or school-related field sport programs that are going on, on Sundays, pretty much everywhere... So yeah - might be worth it. thing is ...doesn't take a but a 30 mph outflow pulse gust with nickle hail sweeping across a non-suspecting soccer tourney to be an issue. Don't have to be 'tornadoes' per se.

We decoupled here ..albeit shallowly, in the Nashoba Valley region. Dead calm at dawn and couldn't fall below 42 ..44s. I mentioned the moderating 850s myself, yesterday, in a drive-by post, and it began really overnight. I'm wondering if the radiative potential was cut down already - more might have helped decoupling and feed-back. Looks like after this week we may neutralize the hemisphere of these convolutions and 'quasi' blocks. The PNA is neggie at CPC and all three ensemble clusters, EPS/GEFS/GEPS are neutering the negative 500 non-hydrostatic layout by D10. Zonal too.. Not sure I completely buy that, but should we move that way we probably flip back to milder look for a week. WPO all the way around the horn flat-lines zonal, while the western N/A mountain torque ridge expression floods east across southern Canada ... Heh puts seasonal migration on hold. Not saying it'd last.. .just is what it is.

It’ll be 65-70 across the Tri-state/SNE tomorrow. High terrain lagging … in fact the coldest core of this shot-across-the-bow air mass is coming through now…. It’ll be warming off the deck overnight from the W-NW … not atypical exiting anomalies. But, we should decouple - where that happens a touch of frost in favored local study/climo sites.

Seasonal loss of sun is the culprit.

Man this is some seriously resistant BD scunge inside this latex paint spill on satellite.

I hope some person sets up a GoPro and records one of those squalls -... I mean, 'if' that comes to pass. I don't frankly/obviously believe it will but it would be something.

I like the thunder grapple ending in 1/4 mi vi before sun bursts back out look of the 240 Euro over S. Ontario - wow

I'm trying to figure out why we are getting such a resonance response from the western Pacific heat flux/typhoon injection, so much during this period. Am aware there is generic correlation there but if you loop the Pacific broad scope anomaly distribution through D10 ...you can clearly see the constructive feedback - and it's doing it with exceptional coherence. It may be just one of those things ... but I suspect that's the question we need to answer. Granted ...it is the models, and nothing's actually verified yet - I've already outlined some aspects of known biases in the models in the range, which could account for some of the amplitude.

You have some competing concepts going on out there along the long side of the middle range. In once sense, the models have an objective tendency to see that range through an amplifying lens ... presumably, suggesting some 20% normalization/correction by the user - with the caveat in mind, 'extremes sometimes still take place.' In the opposing sense, the N. Pacific is being jolted by recent and future excessive latent heat fluxing. This is readily observable looping the 500 mb anomalies. Aft of this present period, through this present period, and out through D6-10, that is sending wave disruption cue rippling down stream through N/A. The models are still sorting that out.. In the near term, the outside slider down the California coast is an impressive anomaly evolution in its own rights, but can be traced back as a quasi direct/indirect down stream effect. In the D4 6 range, the trough amplitude over SE Canada is as well... Despite one model bias aspect telling us to tone it down ( particularly in the D6 range), and one signal suggesting giving weight to a deeper event wrt to that... I believe those can operate inclusively. In other words ...there will be trough, but there is a limit to how deep it will be. By the time we get to eastern N/A, it's pretty far from the forcing source over the WPO - N. Pac; combining that with over amplitude biases, that all argues convincingly enough to go anomalous, but not crazy. The Euro takes it too far/deep. The GGEM for that matter is as well... The ensemble mean of the EPS and GEFS have 2-day trended more amplified, and we'll see how that goes as the D6 passes inside the D5 "bias horizon" Why does this analysis matter? Because the idea of freeze is being sold by the operational runs, so that's an event worth covering. Also, "Fiona" lurking there.

I hope we get this hurricane with no 7 days of a modeling cinema before hand - that'd be an interesting sociological observation/experiment

The Euro still looks like it's fantasizing that trough amplitude across S-SE Canada D5 --> 6 ... Right on that relay seam, it seems to do that ...bestows anything in the field in that region with extra amplitude I can't really see where it comes from... Hm, I may be wrong about that. But I'm waiting for that to correct flatter.

Interesting... the trend line leaped out at me more so than those years back whence ...

The core just got ejected again ... Couple hours ago ( still is the case ) minoring anvil trajectories out ahead of Fiona were tending more toward the N as opposed to right at her - that implied lowering shear. But it doesn't appear the TC is responding to a more favorable environment - so the speculation may not be seeing some layers...

28 diurnal spread so far... not bad. 43 to 71. Incredible in situ 71/46

Now-obs: ...I'm seeing anvil trajectories out ahead of Fiona beginning to move more perpendicular to the storm's west motion - that may be a negation of shear taking place. Meanwhile, there is convection beginning to re associate with eastern/inner core region just in the last hour and half. These may or may not be related - I suspect they are. These might be signals for a better structure ensuing...

Nah... I was talking to you, friend. Trying to offer some reassurance. You don't have to answer to that sort of antic - if you don't want to. But it's wasting your time. Ray is making it all about him, which I don't care to be involved in - When I said that to you, I had 0 awareness that he was involved in the comments you were making. This is all I am going to say on this moving forward. Just letting you know.

That convection is quasi-disassociated from Fiona's core ... so that might atone for that behavior. Convection on its own that collapses often takes on subtle rotation - I've seen that do that both cyclonically and anti-cyclonically. I think it's just momentum distribution at the time the collapse occurs ...If it subtly favors one or the other, than the collapsing/DVM will briefly exaggerate that motion by centrifugal acceleration/conservation of angular momentum. Think ice-skater drawing their extremities inward, and they speed up rotation? When the mass collapses, it goes inward so if there is a tendency of momentum in ether direction, that will exhibit briefly..

ok, again - I didn't know you were in the motivation in that. The phenomenon I am talking about is right/correct - Whether that relates to you in that conversation's thread, I'll take your word for it - but I also don't give a shit. lol - wow

What oh, I didn't know that conversation had you in tow... I was just responding to ... whomever that poster was for what the content. Whatever - Like I said in the next sentence, "That may not be precisely the motivation but... it's in that area of the spectrum" And it is, sorry - right for the right reason.

The normal error for TC position/movement between any day 5- and 7, has a greater sensitivity that normal for Fiona. The reason has to do re-ordering super synoptic across the N arc of the Pacific, and how that structures ( eventually...) the flow over N. America. The N. Pac is in a state of yawing because of complex/extended topic ...but whatever for now. In determining where Fiona will situated by day 5 ... that much may actually be more confident than normal. The features that normally contribute to forcing/steering area not really in a heightened state of variability, so odds are very much in favor of the fairly tightly constrained consensus for somewhere N of the Isle of Hispaniola by 72 hours. ...There is some wild card options for less(more) intensity due to two factors: One, shear in the near terms. You know there really does seem to be something to "survival trends" aft of a TC's present state, when assessing future. It's objectively shown that systems that survive shear, tend to survive more shear. Other systems can go poof the moment they get smacked around a bit. With that ultra sciency sounding rendition ... Fiona has not only been surviving, it's managed to climb some mph ratings - although I'm willing to hunch if anyone else is, that NHC isn't shy about doing that because it is nearing population and PR sort of requires the awareness... Two is whether or not Fiona interacts with the western or eastern end of Hispaniola. The Central Cordillera of western half of that land mass serrates to 6-8K feat, with some peaks nearing 10K. The contrasting ...the eastern ~ half of that landmass is planar, ranging from near sea-level to 600 feet. A weak Fiona obviously would benefit by NOT attempting to cross the western end of Hispaniola, then. A stronger/strengthening Fiona might fair better, but not much. Any TC attempting to cross that western aspect is going to disconnect itself above the waist.

You shouldn't allow your self to be "gas-lit" into questioning why it is you engage, or need to justify your commitment to your passion. Unless your Jeffrey Dahmer ...LOL Really, when a poser drive-by pot shots a comment about how this doesn't deserve its coverage, in a tenor that's clearly dismissive ..or in a lot of ways ...condescendingly lofty, they are really being reflective about themselves. They likely have some sort of psycho-babble difficulty or issue in their own wiring where controlling their own disappointment escapes them. Yet, they find some sort of personal amelioration in lecturing others about a virtue they don't really have enough of for themselves - self control. Control that would have prevented their own disappointment in the first place. I call it disappointment, but in this context it's kind of a loaded definition at that. That may not be precisely the motivation but... it's in that area of the spectrum. We've all done that from time to time ... some more jocular, while others appear to be more 'instructively' gaslighting. If one has an innate passion for tropical weather phenomenon, than tropical phenomenon anywhere in reality is going to draw their attention - hey man... life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness... And like all human beings, ...they may then seek other's perspective for that essence of the shared experience. That's normal. The posters that chide that normalcy ... part of our own maturity, too, it's not so much that we don't respond- to us the real 'bore' is even reading their shade. If it is not "funny" or something very obviously jocular, we seldom get half way through the first sentence and we're already scrolling... Or should be.

ah think I found it.. .

Where on that TT site is the linkage to track guidance ? ...I've poked around several times - is that a paid thing? If not it seems to be elusively placed

Over achieving pattern that’s too early to latch into a real deal airmass