Typhoon Tip

Just from an orbital perspective … it would be unlikely from this starting calendar time to sustain. Having said that … there’s been vacillating going on in that time range beyond Thanksgiving … which is fine and normal but … there are numerical telecons that favor colder looks. Modestly more confidence falls in that court.

Sorry “hygroscopic” It’s a process of moisture mixing with dry air as it is used in Met parlance. Thermodynamically… that takes energy which lowers the temperature. Wet bulbing

Yeah that’s why I call this a mini bust… I mean it’s going to flip over I still think there’s a period of ice where it gets of evap cooling interior. Secondary going south is pretty much guarantees a low 30s show

I argue that the Nam has a Northwest biased much of the time so it’s the apt model that picks up a warm solution when it happens because it happen to be Northwest - that’s what I’m saying it’s right for the wrong reasons? I’ve always thought so and today? Yeah I kind of agree with you anyway I don’t even know if today really qualifies. This is so far a little mini positive bust based on guidance probably underestimating the cold air for some reason. We’re also doing some hydroscopic feedback

It doesn’t though… And I can explain why it only seems that way but nobody really wants to listen or gonna care

I was getting sick of hearing about the NAM-superior warm tongue theory …thank God the other shoe fell

Beautiful vantage !

Looking at the cheap old school classic it's one of these deals where you're scratching your head at no snow

Mid level thrust has only gotten stronger as this has gotten closer over the last 48 hours. … Said thrust originating west of us, that doesn’t bode well for deep layer thickness if one is holding out for colder profiles. But anyway even back then it didn’t look very encouraging for me …that’s why I told people more icing at least in southern New England. As it unfolds in central northern yeah maybe it’s getting warmer down the stretch too. Havent looked. This whole system is really more about the winter Synoptics and this being the first time for this early it’s a great entry … a good practice event. Currently observing an emerging signal around the 24th or 28th of the month

One has to dive into what are called “release notes” - most likely given a formal publication name for that space. For those products they are complex …very involving. It’s not very accessible to encapsulation inside a sentence or two like that. Lol unless somebody wants to be a wise ass and just say, ‘not get worse’ All you have to do is go on Google and type … I dunno, something like “European forecast model upgrades purpose” and you’re likely to get into a more comprehensive expose then in here.

Kind of interesting… as an aside despite passing through this pretty impressive negative EP over the next 3 to 4 days, the actual 850 mbar spread across the Canadian shield is not really that representative. I mean we benefit as cold enthusiast for actually getting transport from those regions but this EPO doesn’t seem to be loading as deeply - perhaps because it’s early in the season but I’m not sure. I mean the sun has set over the polar cap casting the 6 mo “eternal” darkness up there… I mean there should be plenty of cold genesis going on. Maybe this is one of those times were lacking cryo- does have a feedback? If that 0ZGFS is onto that next huge negative EPO burst out there in the extended… It’s also not modeled to have very impressive -850 mb anomalies.

Oh I agree lol I just meant that I get a little bit nervous paranoia when I see the retrograde starting to happen. Like I said “doesn’t mean it’s automatically terrible or bad” and it depends also what’s going on all around. …having said that… My experience over the years is that we’re better off with the description I provided before, rather than just getting a big block parked like an elephant‘s ass east of James Bay. Not that anyone in present company is thinking so… but feel that there is that misconception, perhaps a vestige of those 1990s hoopla surrounding the NAO when it first busted press and became the whole popular meme of the day

I’m probably in the minority but as a winter storm enthusiast I’m not too keen on blocking over Greenland punching southwest into the Maritimes like that… But I guess we can get into relative weighting and so forth to really qualify that - in other words …yeah, it depends on what’s going on all around it. It doesn’t mean it’s automatically terrible or bad, I just would rather not The hangup I’m having with it is that we go from the storm track redirect to a storm track suppression scenario with very narrow window. It’s probably why studies like H.A. from way way back in the day demoed that index modality is when the systems happen …less during stable index modes… But that gets into a tl;dr… I mean the entire study is really intuitive: if a given system is in stasis (mode) no storms; disrupt that mode (modality) …storm I kind a like middling height +hgt anomalies that take place NE-E of James Bay … more indirectly footed in blocking over Greenland but not the boulder itself. You see field swell and recede over the course of 300 hrs … perhaps a couple of times in the mid/upper atmosphere. The occurrence of that is probably more a reflection of the non-linear wave response off the Pacific but that’s really getting complex … Anyway, when that happens more modestly like that we tend/allow more dynamic stream interplay in the Ohio valley-MA-NE sandbox … better storm production that way.

Yeah that 0Z oper GFS goes seemingly historic with EPO in the deep range. I mentioned this yesterday… Seems to be a hemispheric war going on/reflected in the models, between the will of the polar indices vs the will of the ENSO. They are in a bit of a diametric states. I’m just kind of musing with that… But sometimes -ENSO winters do represent early before getting sucky later on so it could just be part of all that too

Kind of surprised by that. insane frost here at 21/21 …. Even ORH was 25 … The old Logan goose?

Uh. Wiener … weenie? Didn’t think it was that difficult

Kielbasa look at that ...it ends as 4-7" after a light rain --> moderate icing --> heavy sleet. It's a full spectrum fantasy.

There's something there ... 23-28th... take your pick of which ensemble member, about 2/3rds of them carry the membership on something during those days.. But ( duh ) they vary quite a bit. There's limited next to N/S in figuring out what "that" will be, with range between cutters, to Del Marva bombs. I'm willing to side a bit more with Will on the NAO. Though whether it's orienting west or eastern limb, not withstanding... The co-lateral polar index mode (the conjunction of the AO and NAO) is in fact negative and continuing to slide - albeit -1 SD by then. But the trend line's established in that range now for few days of consistency. The AO counterpart is the intriguing aspect, as it has coincided with the MJO extended out look along their correlative handshake. The problem is...the MJO is not being very consistent - last nights Euro suite sort of stymied stem-wound it again in 7 and lost that unfurled look heading into the phase 8. It's like there's an epic battle between the AO and the subordinate WPO-EPO-NAO indexes versus the ENSO ...which they are in pretty much a direct competing phase state right now/thru these next couple of weeks. Not sure what to do about that...I feel if the ENSO wasn't interfering so negatively we be doing a 1995er. No ...neither of these index modes cause a storm... The idea here is is that one state detracts from potential, the other adds...

Nothings really changed… Better snow chances are C -northern New England. 38/21 Full sun. Winter atmosphere with ease this hr In the interest of now casting this thing probably watch the behavior of advection over the next 24 hours. And also it’s not so far-fetched to monitor the environmental feedback‘s… Such as if it’s clear tonight and decoupled it’s going to bottom out … then, we may actually “ CAC” tomorrow morning …end up with a low level boundary layer cold feedback that way. I think that for people north of Hartford and west of I 495 in Massachusetts up to SE VT and S NH theres a potential for some ice. it’s a good practice event… In a month we probably frontload this event with better snow performance… at least per guidance look. And there’s still some small chance of this thing busting colder so long as the high is draped north and the low does cut southeast

The whole 50 mb this 10 mb that etc recent, low earth orbit altitudes, strikes me as trying to correlate anything imaginable that might ultimately enhance the probability of getting 300 inches of snow in sub-forum’s regional backyard ha ha. That’s like the end goal… forget everything else in between. Like the fact that there’s an entire troposphere of fractals between here and there. i’m just trying to be tongue-in-cheek a little. But still… all the research I’ve done indicates that variations in the structure of the vortex at those extreme altitudes really don’t have a very strong correlation to anything that happens below unless there are very certain/specific metrical observations ongoing … none of which are likely to happen, because there are too many other variances that have greater physical exertion and noise within the total depths below, which overwhelm the circuitry much of the time.

yeah...I think these "ticks" are likely for the next several cycles. probably we'll lock tomorrow evening... then now cast. Welcome to marginal season.

Obviously we've been over this and over this late Tuesday through Wednesday ordeal. The event itself is both not a novel reach, and is of higher confidence. What has low confidence are the weather types at discrete scales. At minimum, it will "smell" like winter (haha, making progress!) regardless, ...with that mix of cold water and distant wood smoke. It's worth note/coverage as the first synoptic cold season system. the recent larger scale hemispheric pattern change has finished reconstructing the total manifold around one that typically does enhance the potential for eastern/east coastal cyclogenesis. This event late Tuesday through Wednesday, regardless of total and/or specific "backyard" impacts, is a winter storm, with all the metrics in play. There is a strong baroclinic gradient situating early in the week .. roughly VA to coastal New England astride the coast, do to that change. thinking is .5 to .75" liq equiv, and much if not all of it will likely be liquid SE of ~ HFD-BED. NW of that rough axis ...I'm a little intrigued at lower cold handling, and the fact that as we get near, there is a sneaking attempt to apply more lag to the cold ptypes. my personal view is that the boundary layer may not be handled entirely well with still 72 to 84 hours in the till before we start counting flakes or raindrops on this. We have a low with an apparent pulse of deepening as it passes between the Benchmark and Cape Cod Wednesday afternoon, while there is a modest +PP draped C-NNE. What part of our geo-physics ever allows the interior to warm in that set up - it essentially can't. There's likely to be a "tuck" acceleration of BL/925mb flow ...and whether that crashes back to 34 or 31 is a now-cast aspect. But ice is not impossible there. snow vs rain vs ice ...will it be cold enough? +1 to +2C 850mb type NW cyclone arcs typically due tick closer to an isothermal 0 C as the event in question nears in modeled range... Modeling advances in recent year haven't tested that enough. The 12z guidance did trend upward with snow chance ...mainly west of the ORH Hills and along RT 2... not surprised. However, with the larger synoptics described above... I don't see this getting warmer. It's really more a matter of being cold enough. That's the direction of the correction vectoring. I like 1-3" for NW Mass... and cat paws and with occasional soaked cotton balls west of I-495 for now, and this will increase going north into central NE and N-NE. It is not impossible for this to trend more wintry in the intermediate interior.

Haven't heard much reference to the following but the models are likely not handling the nature of ageo/potential in this Wednesday ordeal. You have a modest ...albeit still positive PP drapped across C-NNE, whilst a low approaches from the SW and ultimately cuts under PVD... the interior 'tucks' as a slam dunk. The question is...what kind of air mass restores back south and does it have low enough DPs... A sidecar chance of icing has been with this thing since it first became plausible, all along... I still haven't seen any guidance metrics that dissuade me from being somewhat suspicious about a straight rain ptype, if temps are near freezing in southern VT/NH. Not talking a major qpfer here... In fact, this is a fast moving event ultimately with at best moderate fall rates for time... But it's really kind of an ideal system for scrimmage practice.

It always ( almost invariably..) is that way for the 60+ hour range for that guidance. Also, it'll tend to a NW bias that corrects SE gradually. Folks should try to remember both those facets as we turn winter pages... (most likely not, because that's a NARCAN to adult a chart toward less dopamine LOL) That said, ...yeah, I'm seeing a common thread among the guidance' et al. It's a minor coastal that despite the colder pattern completing its reconstruction of the hemisphere ( which is why-for the minor coastal in the first place - ), it is occurring/running up astride an air mass that's just not quite cold enough. So it's hard to parse out the NW bias and amp happy stuff, vs the the marginal+ atmosphere. If this thing had just that much more cold, it would feed back both in forcing less NW track, but also hole-punch the +1.5 850s and start cotton balling the hills...typical. There''ll be white ptype involvement up near y'all. It's still not impossible for that to happen down this way... The GGEM at 12z is both slightly colder ( by perhaps -.5C) along the NW aspect of the cyclonic envelope. However, unfortunately...the low is a little stronger, so there's WAA off the deck to offset those initial hours. This seemed to more than less also be the case with the 12z GFS. It's all about the novelty of seeing snow in the air for the first time. This has a chance... It's a marginal+ look right now, smells like snow while it's raining with cold hands. Nasty nasty metallic raw November typology. Get this to correct marginal- would help the novelty cause.

wow, that must be really old then.