Typhoon Tip

A primitive version of that kind of “forecast system attempting to outthink the models” took place before the 1997 December 23 snow bomb. Remember the, at the time, ETA model, was forecasting a thermal profile like -1+2+4 at Logan, 980 to sfc For some reason all the models had the surface temperature even in interior going above freezing and the entire event was also drastically under with QPF, BTW. But as it were …it got 19-like cold at night and then suddenly right at dawn the clouds advanced all at once and we “cold capped” Not 1035 but there was like a 1028 Mbar high park ideally just north west of Maine. Forecast from just 12hrs earlier wad 1-3” of glop ending as misery mist 22” later, an event that will live on as the greatest short term debacle bust in the history of weather forecasting infamy, and that even includes the telegraph days. I’d even put that over Galveston. No just kidding …nothing beats Galveston but-

Yeah like Will said yesterday to… whomever that was, we’re going to have to probably rely on shorter duration lead time on these “threats” unfortunately. And in the meantime … Hope that the operational runs give us some fake cinema to methadone in the interim ha ha ha

I also think that GFS is not a very good tool for assessing during blocking patterns. I know the model’s made a lot of improvements over the last decade and it’s now perhaps competitive. However, I still at times sense a tendency for it to stretch the x-coordinate and be to progressive especially out in time. I also noticed that tends to accumulate too much colder Heights on the polar side of the ambient jet. I think may be why in enhances the velocities out in time and is what caused that stretching to occur - suppositional. Anyway if you’re in a blocking slowing pattern I think that the native bias, however vestigial exists in the Gfs it may be fighting against that.

Having said that just compare the overnight day 8 9 and 10 of the operational GFS along the 40th parallel - that demonstrates what bad continuity looks like there’s too much uncertainty as to how things are going to orient from the Pacific across the continent.

People are into the operational shows not for substantive analysis, they’re into it for the cinema/thrillseeking. Haha.

In totality this GFS solution is kind of wonky looking because you don’t typically take cyclones on an anti cyclonic trajectory and have them do what that’s doing

Yeah man that’s got road blocked turning into a blue snow scenario written all over it

Mmm I would not sweat that solution at all seriously don’t. You can clearly see the stress of the NAO pattern structure forcing that back south as it tries to clear our longitude just like the 0Z and the 6Z predecessor solutions did too. And all of that period of time is going to be subjected to that kind of forcing - the correction vector still points South. Until there is a coherent reason to switch the direction of that vector I really see taking something significantly west of New England through the great lakes as being very dubious

Oh it’s no contest… Not even close. People who complain about melts are insufferable. I mean we’re being tongue-in-cheek here… Still, melts have an entertainment value. Some delicious turns a phrase can come out of people who are in a state of apoplexy. But the complainers? They are curiously disingenuous people that chastise others for melting, but are in fact melting themselves. That’s just the way they do it – and it’s actually technically a form of gaslighting too. They don’t want to face they're own failing so they defer to targeting others and vent that way.

We can laugh at this is buuut … it is quite right and just about perfect as an early risk assessment. we’ve been talking about the run up to mid month for about 10 days at this point. I mean it’s not just what was in the models there’s other techniques of a personal nature coming from me but other people have been on it too for their own whatever they do. And for winter enthusiast, it is unfortunately a slight chance - but you know …that’s gonna be true whenever we’re talking about a 10 day outlook and this is really 11 12 and 13. I think we’re also kind of in a cultural adjustment when it comes to the technology because the models are so much vastly better we’ve gotten used to expecting certain signals to really manifest at extended leads. But Jesus the 13th to the 15th is still over 10 days away

Yeeeeah I would not count on the MJO helping out much until further notice. It’s really in a destructive interference with the footprint of the Pacific. One thing folks need to understand about the MJO it does not force the pattern; it augments the pattern if/when the pattern is receptive. Otherwise it doesn’t augment shit. Crass way to put it but it either adds or subtracts from an ongoing pattern via constructive vs destructive interference. All of the left side RMM wave phase spaces are destructive until further notice … which is why we keep seeing the wave collapse into the COD region abruptly as it tries to enter phase 8 from 7? That’s the footprint of the Pacific canceling out the MJO, and thus its ability to influence the pattern goes right along with it.

Utter chaos coming from every guidance source overnight… both within their own performance envelopes but relative to one another. The blocking in the hemisphere is the only consistency … but morphologies in how it integrates with the surrounding circulation medium, from forcing to feedbacks, … is/has been different from run to run. If the PAC has “improved” it is what it is but it’s also “new” and represents a mottled continuity … Better looking doesn’t necessarily add too predictive skill - just sayn Oh man. I don’t know this is the first time I’ve seen blocking grow so ominously large that it threatens some kind of cascade thermal inversion that engulfs everywhere and is spooky in the Sci Fi sense of it LOL 06z oper GFS shows the 12.13.14 aspect but it’s hard to even tell if that’s the same or just coincidentally timed peregrination of the next variable run or what that is. The GGEM’s exotic solution is really 7.8.9 getting stuck in -NAO amber … almost a vague analog to the ‘100 hour storm’ but that entire option obliterated any system planning at all in lieu of what that’s doing. Looks less like it logistics out there and much more like it’s just numerical instability in doing something at all underneath the NAO block’s baroclinic petri potential. It’s just so volatile. Retrograde plus east component plus the Coriolis parameter creates a little red spot. … It’s actually kind of cool. Heh Just looking at the individual members of the GEFs it still looks like a run up to mid month has a chance to be a significant player over the eastern conus. The one in the foreground around the eighth to the 10th I think the models will not stop until they actually tap the Metaverse

Oh I see. It’s really just doing what the 12z did but even worse. That would be a first time in history if the NAO actually behaved that way and maybe there’s something tied to global warming and CC with that I don’t know I’ve never seen a model be so hell-bent on doing something that’s pretty much never been seen. Do it seems.

I was just looking at the 18z GFS loop at TT. given that frame size … you almost get the impression there’s no -NAO at all … im too tired to look at this further. I’m getting close to whocaresville but I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s just moved the blocking en masse again

how can they tank the NAO any further, jesus. If that ridge builds any taller the Artemis missions may as well be scrubbed because astronauts could just step from the top of that doom right upon the surface of the moon

Glad you look at the individual members… Don’t be shy about doing that with the GEFS members either. People need to get in the habit of doing that. What’s the harm in doing it if people want to see the modeling cinema. They got 31 different movies going simultaneously…haha. there are some GEFS members with monster solutions near in the Dell Marva to Long Island and in fact the recent trend from the blended mean is showing steadily lowering heights in that area on the 14th which and I have been talking about that period for five days so I have no problem with it.

It’s not a bad take. Really … other than the specter of the block itself, there’s really some exceptionally bad model continuity right now - really rather stunningly poor. I think the draw on the eyes toward the -NAO might even be masking that. It’s still the more important responsibility, that these models show modicum of clue but even the day fours have been a little bit dicey… so as that day is in the approximate 9 to 14 or 16 range we may be still dealing with some of that

Nah he’s right. I was screwing up the time intervals.

Not sure the following statement will really resonate given the mood and the people of this particular Internet depot… But Saturday still looks like it’s gonna be really nice - may be one of the last days to get out for an outdoor run or hike or bike ride for quite some time afterwards. Unless one is hardy and doesn’t mind doing that kind of stuff in less amicable weather

Just a thought… But yesterday those rumors floating around that the new version of the GFS system was somehow corrupting the assimilation data - maybe Chris knows something about that? but the thought is that since I’m pretty sure the Canadians purchase a lot of ingest data from the GFS grids maybe they’re being affected by that. A lot of supposition there but worth a question. Maybe the relationships are all different now

I don’t disagree with any of that in principle but I suspect … if we want to drill down into the psychobabble aspect, there is a little bit of mmm I don’t wanna use the word dependency, but there is a kind of thrill-seeking addiction that happens. I’m not gaslighting the group here by any means. I’m really not. Hell I’m part of it. But as an honest attempt at an objective observation, it is affecting us here like it affects everyone in society - to some degree We’ve turned the model releases times into kind of a cinema that provided that thrill:rush. I mean sometimes it’s all but coherent that we want the model runs before the storm more than the actual storm itself lol. And if the cinema isn’t showing that finishing scene, that gives emotion and ‘emptiness’. - endorphin loss there. That’s why we’ve been joking about drugs and Narcan and all this other shit …we all know it’s true. It’s part of the stuff they been talking about on the news and the documentaries about how addictive the Internet has become. You know… As a totally separate subject matter it’s been used influentially as a manipulation and divisive tactic. One of the reasons why society has so much polarization right now and the sword of schismatic cultural belief systems that are hateful. And hate to use the trope but they are tearing up the fabric… Etc. It’s actually really interesting subject matter. If people are interested check out the ‘dystopimentary’ “The Social Dilemma”. The last I knew it was on Netflix but I don’t know if they’re carrying that anymore. But they have been like 60 minutes exposes on this and other infoshows are surfacing

If it makes anybody feel any better it’s below normal today…

Again again again… The NAO is notoriously stochastic in guidance handling. The fact that this one’s been behaving doing better over the last week or so is really an anomaly in itself we’ve been lucky up to this point not to be dealing with that but you know?

And just to be funnin’ …I actually wouldn’t mind that position in a scalar sense of it if we could just lop about 30 or 40 dam off the top of that sucker

Oh it’s even worse… I mean after two weeks of build up that should’ve gone the other direction then do that? It’s even worse because at least in the other since you did get some snow at some point. I guess just since we’re being silly here… the upshot is that that happens on the 13th and 14th and there’s plenty of time to manufacture something in the recovery period after - assuming there will be one.