Typhoon Tip

Too much smoke

Embarrassingly ... what I just described to PF is pretty close to what the JMA does ... Gets a deep vortex closure as close by as Maine, and than rather than retrograding SW through NY State ( also a red flag in the GFS - ) it gives this by Sunday,

About all we can hope for is this ... ( and it's a real phenomenon in the Spring in particular when it comes to guidance error - ) Once in a while post the bowling season and just before the summer spaghetti heights season ... we go through this period where the models over assess trough closures in that D5-8 range. I've seen this a handful of times over the years, where during modeling pattern see-saw occurrences, they lift heights in the east and sort of don't know what to do with the CU clouds in that region... The models do so too fast and the lower heights ivo the mid Atlantic close off - which turns out to be faux conservation of momentum that the models don't need to conserve. If this is one of those scenarios ... this will begin to fill/morph [probably ] into a weaker mid leve gyre that drifts west over the TV latitudes, while we end up balming out. Kevin is reading this and running to the bank with it - I'm just saying this sort of phenomenon is not unprecedented. It's getting late in the year for the sort of cut off the models are proposing, and while they are proposing it ... there does happen to be a bit of a PNA see-saw in the index, going from positive to negative toward the end of the week. Because of those two considerations... it does remind me of an opportunity for the models to go ahead and exercise that type of error. after thoughts... The models are not going to be good at handling that differential when the surrounding westerlies are in rapid process of abandoning that region of the MA... The trough sweeping SE through Canada is positively tiling - also - at high latitude for that behavior in itself, one that may result from forcing a trough through a region that is developing negative interference. Particularly in the Euro I could see that being a amplitude bias at 144+ hours. So we'll see... it's probably < the 50% probability but it's there. So hope -

Yeah, this interpretive description of her work ( Dr Capotondi's) goes a step deeper into the mechanics of the broader principles I discussed above. The weakening and areal expansion of the HC is going to definitely have an impact on that "...interannual changes...," in terms of both timing and mass-flux of the surface wind distribution in question. No question -

Well .. yeah, there's that too. There's a definite seasonal/circumstantial sort of 'constraint' to this. In autumn, just before the advance of cooling hemispheres reaches the "triggering" latitudes ...yup, those gradients where the Hadley Cell terminates into the westerlies are concomitantly weak. At that time ...circa late August through hgt of the tropical seasons, the HC arrives to its largest perennial extension ( and getting larger due to CC ). Perhaps counter-intuitive, that the spatial increased in that eddy field actually weakens the circulation of the HC ... The region within ends up pock-marked and perforated by more trough meanders and TUTTS, with TC turning right early type behavior. Mind us ...all these peregrinations described are in the sense of tendencies ... El Nino summers obviously do impact TC - or always used to. This isn't even a deep dive into statistical science to bear that out. A straight up linear comparison between cool and warm ENSO ( perhaps yes considering lags, okay ) would demonstrate a correlation. But it has been read that El Nino autumns "shut down" TC genesis earlier than other years. There's also a QBO marker in that discussion that's rather robust. But I wasn't intending to get into TC stuff haha... Anyway, with CC modulating the HC into large spatial arrays and then now having to contend with warming mid latitude oceans ( thermocline discussion notwithstanding/ nor wind ss stressing factors) this does present some problems when considering the gradients overall. I've been arguing this for years. The simplest principle has to be achieved or none of this conversation happens. A has to be differentiable to B. That's why the Universe exists ( lol ) much less the shenanigans of Terrain atmosphere. If A = B ... nothing happens. If A >< B ... forces do everything in their power to get A to = B. This latter aspect is both why the wind blows, and hearts beat. And ... starts the whole discussion about how the ENSO states integrate into the rest of the planetary system.

Or worse for prognostic science yet ... with the present state of background climate forcing, even if one were to predict the ensuing SD to within a reasonable margin of error ... there are deeper questions (valid ones) relating to the integration/dispersion mechanics into the mid latitudes. This is both theoretically questionable, but also empirically suggested too, spanning recent cool and warm ENSO phases, with increasing frequency of occurrences of partial or more complete decoupled states since circa 1998

V-p chart immediate above situates the values somewhere around 90 degrees out of sync wrt to the base-line Walker model. Interesting

Modest anomalies here and there but didn’t appear to stray too far away from a climo rain event

Is that the Taylor Swift show?

Might have to watch for one of these over M Day weekend down there.

I feel like the circulation that opened up and smeared into the gradient was probably on the verge of acquiring …E side llv jet with 65 DPs and a warm metallic feel to the air mass … this was an aborted attempt.

I doubt the Euro cluster works out ... Or, okay - it could if there are changes in the structure of the westerlies between the eastern Pacific and Ontario. As is ... I don't believe we are drilling a -1.5 sigma 500 mb closed vortex SW from a starting position over Montreal and ending up over WV ...taking 5 days to do it.

I'd say by cursory evaluation the GEPs are spectacular, the GEFs are cautionary but not too bad. The EPS cancels plans

We can always hope for the GGEM

Seems like some of the atmospheric pieces to the El Nino puzzle are falling into place before the ocean beneath. STJ S of HA ... Nice b-leaf structure fanning over Texas originating from that feature as it runs up over old Mexico

This is my highest DP of the season at 62 ... despite the quality of the weather, this is actually a seasonal step. heh

My generation ... ( as an approximation ) may be the last one that walked to school in 9" of snow and quarter mile visibility, or met up in a field for football with pouring rain on purpose... I guess anything that is "organized" has to be overly monitored because the people the organization is providing are now useless human pustule litigates, lookin' to cash in. That's cynical humor ... But, Americana has at this point become a definitive generational cancel happy culture, so much so that we even "Cancel Culture" .. but that's something else. It really does transcend the trope where the elder says, "...Why back when we were young..." it really is that way now, where that old guy is right. When events, schools ... et al get canceled before the snow or rain is falling, and then half the time ... we're looking out the window at a setting in which neither has occurred ... that gets a little resentful.

They would do that? heh...candy asses ... It's gonna be like 77 F with that kind of soothing amount of DP ( non-oppressive) lingering, and nice warm sun. Wet fields? wow ...unless you meant 'flooded field'

I almost pulled the trigger when fillin' the tank last night, and use the station's free albeit grungy slime detergent they never rotate ... but then hoped in the moment that I'll just drive down the highway at 70 mph in a moderate rain and that'll clean the vehicle just fine.

I’m not fully convinced… I see the euro as unchanged in the last 7 to 10 years and the other models just getting better. Also been watching the Euro this spring and it has been decent. If it doesn’t do well in this particular event, I don’t think people are paying attention to when it is doing well.

Not sure why others are a fighting the westward trend/versions? is there something particularly at stake in having it rain or something? I mean ... it rains the most of what rains ... at night. So who the f cares. You can't run humanity on a planet that doesn't rain, so consider yourselves lucky that by 10 am on Sunday it's already 70 with d-slope light tepid breezes under periwinkle blue skies ... with at that time, life nourishing water put back in the bank. I don't get it... Is it maybe because people are seeking some sort of dystopian jerk off over a drought? You're not getting that anyway

god I f'n hopes so... I mean it won't stop the stein nimrodery but it's like a fetish to try - lol

The finer meshed model types have averaged on the western side of the envelope from what I've been seeing. This also has some convective aspects to it - just scoping the region LI's they are down to -1..-2 range, so a lot of that probably is also "convective smear" - what's likely to really happen is a generalize .75" along a conduit that's ...say 30 to 40 mile's wide/core of a PWAT plume lifting up EC from subtropics NE of Florida, but within that axis ...a couple of training orange lightning producers with short duration rain rates stripe a 2.25. I don't see this event as being >3.0" over that large of an area though

I'm not sure of everyone's particular contribution in this social media, but for me this speculation was/is not a matter of "...forecast seasonally just based on ENSO" -altho, there are many seasonal outlooks where the methodology conveyed does not signal the author did rely much upon anything else ... That's not uncommon either. It's a matter of sciencing (asking the question) over the amounts of weighted contribution. And also, agreed - there are no 1::1 correlations in atmospheric mode to mode relationships, nor in the events that take place over time during dominate modes of either that affect a region. Obviously river phenomenon can happen in La Nina. But when the entire manifold of different climate pathways, in general, in which ENSO is correlated begin demonstrating increased frequency of occurrences in which the correlations are less represented, that is a suggestion that the system is changing - that's just analytic/academic. That's what is paramount ( at least ) in my recent contribution to this thread.

This has been a remarkable spring for diurnal deltas ... I've clocked two that were more than 40 degrees, and several in the mid 30s. Today will also be impressive, with at least as much spread as the latter. 30 was the low ...but numerous home sites within a couple clicks of my location ranged down from that to 26. SO, figure if we get 68 out of today, that's fair enough across the Nashoba Valley for yet a 3rd d(t) spanning 40 degrees. Three times amid so many 30+ is a kind of under-the-radar phenomenon in itself.