Typhoon Tip

Basically .. .teetering with a dystopian melt-down of society constructs - yup. I agree with what I suspect you are dancing with there... To quote an oft' miss-used trope, we find our selves culturally fighting off a rather Orwellian stench. It's sort of incarnate. There's a histrionic wave surging through modernity, that is a stimulus response to all that is zapping the minds of the populations that constitute modernity... It's basically this simple: take a community in a state of quiescence; destabilize the status quo significantly enough; panic ensues; stability dissolves. That basic recipe we are witnessing, extended beyond a single generational time span is consistent with present global state of affairs. Due to technology? - I don't want to impugn it like a fringe ideologue, but fact of the matter is..it matches a pattern that appears to recur throughout history. So is borne a hypothesis of mine, venturing into anthropology of modern man (which I am a Meteorologist so it's a bit of a stretch HAHAHA) But weather guys/gals tend to see patterns in shit. I don't know. But looking back across history... what has happened a decade or two (or shorter) prior to most of the large scaled states of duress (war)? - a wave of unsettling information disrupted the status quo. In more modern times, the radior preceded WW1 ...--> WWII became incensed and was really a continuation of the same hostility, but Industrial Revolution's tech began to alter humanity and provide even more informational resources that offered more corruption of assumption and lent to populous movements ..inevitably WWII. Surveilance of foreign affairs became the paranoia affair of all the "world Pentagons" so ... we become Military response happy species - those that guide in part or fully within Industrial advantage. But if we go back, paranoia and destabilization can be linked to the fall of the Roman Empire... There are other examples. War was preceded by waves of destabilzing senses of mass security. We are in that state with how the Internet has been transformative. Hence the "prediction" may not end so well ...I mean, if there's any truth to the former hypothesis.

yeah... folks initial response to that missive, they seem too focused on the exact words instead of seeing the essence of 'dark humor' point? I'm not saying tainted treats is ubiquitous practice. I'm speaking to the holiday's TOT practice being sullied by a panoply of reasons; at what point do folks begin to evaluate the futility of the engagement and stop forcing it? ... if they are jumping through weather, or Pandemic, or pathos in society. As far as the tainted candy, I "think" that was a fad among nut jobs more like the 1980s? - but that's no sociological aver. But -et el- nowaday, that "might be" something one would question more so than ever. I mean, this expose' proving that there are far more people amongst us coveting a wish to do harm, randomly, triggered by their own unpredictable psychosis - at what point does the 1980s become fun for fucks again. It's more of a frustration tongue in cheeker

It's probably regional/ethos -determined behavior, but around SNE ... are children even TOTing on Halloween any more? It seems there are too many protocols to make that a faith's perfection anymore. Like...you have to inspect all the candy - if you are a good parent/care giver. And at some point in doing so, the spirit of it all is so ruined it almost gets embarrassing that your actually inspecting fucking candy. If it is that much trouble, why are we doing this? I guess maybe it's a learning op, a life lesson for kids never to trust the largess of anyone, and that community spirit of any kind is in reality, a "fauxity" that can't be trusted and is bullshit. Great! On the flip side, having poison and/or pins and needles lodged into mini Snickers ...is just the sort of evil that should be represented by the celebration demons - so there's that too. Humanity has gone and made the date literal. I'm being snarky ... obviously. Still, the whole idea of it seems exposed and sort of fading - like some future generation would tell their grand kids, 'back when we used to -'. We had Halloween "canceled" ( how does one cancel that? Like is some cop going to arrest a kid for TOTing) locally like 5 times in the last 7 years for either snow storms or pandemics ... And if it's a risk anyway in a year when those factors aren't intervening, it just seems like why even engage when there's so many hoops to jump through. interesting-

Oh you could smell it coming ... I know that might sound weird but - I don't speak for everyone's experience; certain weather types have an aroma to me. Last night it was 42 at 7:10 and the scent of the ambiance between car and grocery store was 'icy'. I remember thinking this'll freeze. 27 here ..with a couple of 25s dappled around home sites. It's been a number of years since I've caught this, but ...still air ( I mean dead still), cold attributed leaf fall. They rained under canopies through the sideways sun of morning. The late holdouts were caving to seasonal change. Unfortunately ...the modeling tenor sings a different tune for the next 10 days, lol. But you know, even in bootlegging, it's heralding, because we're not likely doing this on still nights a month ago.

I agree partially. We’ve been doing it all summer. Always shy of potential. It’s magnifying now that the solar contribution is tepid yup. So it’s more noticeable but we keep being disproportionately cool relative to the synoptic look. It’s hypothesis but I think the mid levels are repeatedly outpacing the low levels so the two fields tend to quasi uncouple. Ridges peel off and escape before thermal momentum from one day to the next can relay launch pads. That’s more summer … but we’ll have 560 hydro stats with a 4 or 5 lapse rate from 860 to the surface this weekend, so now it gets to make sense. But it’s more than that I suspect.

This whole synopsis is fake cold by day too. The sound curves must be straight up.

Well who knows what happens in latter November. I would’ve thought a week ago more favorably but I’m starting to have my doubts. These recent seasonal entry trends favor the early cold snap and a chance of snow but I think we’re kind of getting through that by dodging the bullet this year Beyond which … I mean there’s always random chance for pattern modulations that are just anomalies couched inside of longer-term anomalies, and all that confusion. Otherwise, what I’m looking at oer the next two weeks …we don’t really have have much chance of seeing any kind of wintry weather without some kind of seriously out of left field things interceding.

It might… but probably wouldn’t offer the bigger corrections we used to sort of pretend we werent hoping to see. Ha I think they’re at a point with the technology/assimilation techniques where that kind of correction is a thing of the past. Something I’ve been monitoring since - really the last big correction that was the Boxing Day storm - i’m not seeing the correction tendencies that we used to re systems <—84 to 120 hour frames since 2010 and the new GFS version regularity

It’s all they’re fixing…?

We could be above normal and get 60 inches them two months tho

It’s been a very strange … perhaps under the radar of anyone caring, week of synoptic weather.

We’re actually getting measurable out of mist plume as seen on radar. IR sat has 0

What a disaster over the west Atlantic into the coastal plain from the mid Atlantic all the way up… Clear and present cluster fuck – if there was ever a better description for a train wrecking the weather pattern that would be a neat trick. I mean it is just a gigantic morass of barotropic/baroclinic fragments, en masse, drifting to the northwest from over 1000 miles out. Anyone see the micro depression out there? It is kind of a neat feature

Heh. Yeah but that may be too warm. You know actually we had almost a week straight of 70s to near 80 after that snowfall two years ago Halloween in early November… I mean obviously theres hyperbole in the jest sentiment …but certainly compared to what’s going on the last three days down here in dog shit kingdom if it got up to 71 on Sunday with full sun and light wind ? I think most would agree

having said all that we could end up being destroyed in november this year

We pay for it now ...and then hopefully, our purchase turns around as what could be the best weather in the geologic history of Octobers, Friday thru next Tuesday. 60 to start, 74 to finish, with almost no wind by Saturday onward, with 120 mi visibility. 2-meters look too cool for 558 to 563 hydrostats and 850s to 11C. All we have to do is make sure the GFS doesn't verify -

I honestly struggle with believing what we’ve/are observing so far this autumn has much to do with ENSO.

Mm Likely a coincidence, tho. Results don’t dictate cause - haha I mean not intending to dictate here lol No but two thunderstorms created by entirely different mechanisms produced the similar amt if rain ? Think of it that way.

Looking at IR Sat loop that’s almost a a Bahama blue pattern there … bout the latest I’ve ever seen that

He got picked up by a major forecasting/energy market firm and per his hiring he had to commit to an NDA. His thoughts and methods can't both be free, while defaulting to proprietary inclusion into the employing organization - so there's no sense in engaging in here. He made it out in other words... For the rest of you, keep trying and maybe one day you'll get adopted too -

It's way out there ... 288 hours and such, but without even looking at the rest of the GFS's panel of products, this can't be happening without an EPO dive. It spikes downward, and the flow follows suits. 516 dm hydrostates to Montana is redic for November 4 even for their standards.. It's just some to eye candy -

You mean like how J.Q. Cop has to get his quota of 5 tickets per month ha.

32 low 72 high 40! ... highest diurnal spread in years.

Those are among some of my favorite moments. When you're standing there... with the sun just 10 or so degrees up over the horizon, ...essentially ground-parallel fracturing corpuscular rays knife through the trees if you look toward its direction. Through a kind of translucence that isn't enough to call it fog; the air sets aglow. And raining through the scene are flit sounds of cold-clipped leaves. I think that phenomenon happens because the cold was intense enough to freeze minute water lingering in the leaf stem - it expands 12% by volume and that expanse sort of hurries the leaf's destiny. The wind is dead call, but this fall mass, evidence by the littering of fresh leaves still having color pop directly under tree canopy, ....can rival the breeze deposition later that afternoon. It's interesting how nature has these 'back up plans' like that. If a region is saddled with a stagnating pattern with low wind - not altogether uncommon during autumns, despite the onset of stormy season - eventually, the leaves are coming down to set the cycle of the next season into motion.

Wow.. .up 25 at FIT. Could be the biggest diurnal swing of the year. There's MOS products with 68 there this afternoon. Would be a 38 recovery should that take place. ASH is 27 up from 30... 57. BED, up 24... Meanwhile, ORH was 41 this morning... BOS was 46... I'm surprised we decoupled so proficiently last night. I thought we had gotten on the top side of this narrow surface PP enough that a W/SW flow would keep us from doing so 'as much'.