Typhoon Tip

Nothings really changed… Better snow chances are C -northern New England. 38/21 Full sun. Winter atmosphere with ease this hr In the interest of now casting this thing probably watch the behavior of advection over the next 24 hours. And also it’s not so far-fetched to monitor the environmental feedback‘s… Such as if it’s clear tonight and decoupled it’s going to bottom out … then, we may actually “ CAC” tomorrow morning …end up with a low level boundary layer cold feedback that way. I think that for people north of Hartford and west of I 495 in Massachusetts up to SE VT and S NH theres a potential for some ice. it’s a good practice event… In a month we probably frontload this event with better snow performance… at least per guidance look. And there’s still some small chance of this thing busting colder so long as the high is draped north and the low does cut southeast

The whole 50 mb this 10 mb that etc recent, low earth orbit altitudes, strikes me as trying to correlate anything imaginable that might ultimately enhance the probability of getting 300 inches of snow in sub-forum’s regional backyard ha ha. That’s like the end goal… forget everything else in between. Like the fact that there’s an entire troposphere of fractals between here and there. i’m just trying to be tongue-in-cheek a little. But still… all the research I’ve done indicates that variations in the structure of the vortex at those extreme altitudes really don’t have a very strong correlation to anything that happens below unless there are very certain/specific metrical observations ongoing … none of which are likely to happen, because there are too many other variances that have greater physical exertion and noise within the total depths below, which overwhelm the circuitry much of the time.

yeah...I think these "ticks" are likely for the next several cycles. probably we'll lock tomorrow evening... then now cast. Welcome to marginal season.

Obviously we've been over this and over this late Tuesday through Wednesday ordeal. The event itself is both not a novel reach, and is of higher confidence. What has low confidence are the weather types at discrete scales. At minimum, it will "smell" like winter (haha, making progress!) regardless, ...with that mix of cold water and distant wood smoke. It's worth note/coverage as the first synoptic cold season system. the recent larger scale hemispheric pattern change has finished reconstructing the total manifold around one that typically does enhance the potential for eastern/east coastal cyclogenesis. This event late Tuesday through Wednesday, regardless of total and/or specific "backyard" impacts, is a winter storm, with all the metrics in play. There is a strong baroclinic gradient situating early in the week .. roughly VA to coastal New England astride the coast, do to that change. thinking is .5 to .75" liq equiv, and much if not all of it will likely be liquid SE of ~ HFD-BED. NW of that rough axis ...I'm a little intrigued at lower cold handling, and the fact that as we get near, there is a sneaking attempt to apply more lag to the cold ptypes. my personal view is that the boundary layer may not be handled entirely well with still 72 to 84 hours in the till before we start counting flakes or raindrops on this. We have a low with an apparent pulse of deepening as it passes between the Benchmark and Cape Cod Wednesday afternoon, while there is a modest +PP draped C-NNE. What part of our geo-physics ever allows the interior to warm in that set up - it essentially can't. There's likely to be a "tuck" acceleration of BL/925mb flow ...and whether that crashes back to 34 or 31 is a now-cast aspect. But ice is not impossible there. snow vs rain vs ice ...will it be cold enough? +1 to +2C 850mb type NW cyclone arcs typically due tick closer to an isothermal 0 C as the event in question nears in modeled range... Modeling advances in recent year haven't tested that enough. The 12z guidance did trend upward with snow chance ...mainly west of the ORH Hills and along RT 2... not surprised. However, with the larger synoptics described above... I don't see this getting warmer. It's really more a matter of being cold enough. That's the direction of the correction vectoring. I like 1-3" for NW Mass... and cat paws and with occasional soaked cotton balls west of I-495 for now, and this will increase going north into central NE and N-NE. It is not impossible for this to trend more wintry in the intermediate interior.

Haven't heard much reference to the following but the models are likely not handling the nature of ageo/potential in this Wednesday ordeal. You have a modest ...albeit still positive PP drapped across C-NNE, whilst a low approaches from the SW and ultimately cuts under PVD... the interior 'tucks' as a slam dunk. The question is...what kind of air mass restores back south and does it have low enough DPs... A sidecar chance of icing has been with this thing since it first became plausible, all along... I still haven't seen any guidance metrics that dissuade me from being somewhat suspicious about a straight rain ptype, if temps are near freezing in southern VT/NH. Not talking a major qpfer here... In fact, this is a fast moving event ultimately with at best moderate fall rates for time... But it's really kind of an ideal system for scrimmage practice.

It always ( almost invariably..) is that way for the 60+ hour range for that guidance. Also, it'll tend to a NW bias that corrects SE gradually. Folks should try to remember both those facets as we turn winter pages... (most likely not, because that's a NARCAN to adult a chart toward less dopamine LOL) That said, ...yeah, I'm seeing a common thread among the guidance' et al. It's a minor coastal that despite the colder pattern completing its reconstruction of the hemisphere ( which is why-for the minor coastal in the first place - ), it is occurring/running up astride an air mass that's just not quite cold enough. So it's hard to parse out the NW bias and amp happy stuff, vs the the marginal+ atmosphere. If this thing had just that much more cold, it would feed back both in forcing less NW track, but also hole-punch the +1.5 850s and start cotton balling the hills...typical. There''ll be white ptype involvement up near y'all. It's still not impossible for that to happen down this way... The GGEM at 12z is both slightly colder ( by perhaps -.5C) along the NW aspect of the cyclonic envelope. However, unfortunately...the low is a little stronger, so there's WAA off the deck to offset those initial hours. This seemed to more than less also be the case with the 12z GFS. It's all about the novelty of seeing snow in the air for the first time. This has a chance... It's a marginal+ look right now, smells like snow while it's raining with cold hands. Nasty nasty metallic raw November typology. Get this to correct marginal- would help the novelty cause.

wow, that must be really old then.

I was but a small boy in Kalamazoo Michigan - I didn't become a "masshole" until I was early teenage and moved to this region of New England... But Kalamazoo resides just barely east of the western Michigan LE belt. Once in a blue moon the belt would shift and the 1/16th mi vis would hide the city-scape. By and large..we were always watching the white wall just to our west. It was horror for a fledgling little obsessive weather dweeb. Pure torture! Alas, there would be no chase as a 9-year old. Actually, there was often another band that was NE of the city two. The really infuriating days were when the afternoon sun was setting behind a fuzzy gray wall west, while the NE belt was brilliantly lit. Straight overhead were meager scattered virga busted CU with a flurry or two. Those bands were notorious 8"ers... there. 18" in Van Burren County. They are actually under an Advisory tonight for the season's first LE event. I miss that some... Some of the best one's are when it got so cold the whole structure just deteriorated into this cryo mist... I delivered papers in 0 F, with chalks dust blowing sideways and the orb of the sun dimly visible ... It was like a tundra scene.

Are you here for a longish while? If you're a snow monger ...you'd be right to return this next week. Some guidance has the LE climo snow hose suffocating the typical zones back there...

You may have been able to prevent some of your humility if you'd considered that "earlier last week" aspect. Lol. Maybe our expectations in the wild ranges of autumn are just little high ? Unless by earlier in the week you mean the day before - but that sounds like it was 5 forecast. And your handle is amusing (then). "Humbled Buffalo Bumble"

I've been noticing that, too .. kind of an echo of former synoptic state. I've seen that over the years and the peregrinations of NP/EPO enough with these pattern handling in the guidance to know, uuusually that's like a 'place -holder?' If a perhaps a stand-by signal to not let one's guard down. There are background physics that still want ridging to prevail. The signal for EPO resurgence is there. But ( for the general audience) we have to keep in mind, these ensemble means will inherently grow increasingly entropic out in time. The fact that there is a modest echo in that region, beyond D6 ..8, means there are members most likely both reflecting those back ground physical tendencies, as well as outright demoing a love mound response ...being skewed toward entropy (disorder) by the those that are not. The other aspect that I'm seeing is the wild ride in the MJO, which is statistically well correlated ( oddly enough ...) with the AO. The right RMM fields with +AO, and vice versa. The present long lead on MJO is a rather robust retry in the Phase 7/8 fields, and out there around that time ( thanks giggedy or so) there is also a significant number of American members dipping the AO negative. You can see traces of that in the distant poler-stereographic heights of the GEFs, too. I don't buy a flip back to warm December to be blunt. Yeah...sure, we'll see. But if anything, what techniques avail are moving the other direction.

Agreed ... "...Euro's already an accumulating snow from EEN to CON, which is a step down cold improvement over priors..."

So we're trending toward the marginal threshold re Wed afternoon... It's quick miasma moving through with modest coastal cyclogen 'holding in' the cold, too - not hurting and a barrier jet/ageo mechanics will be pulling out of modest +PP. That can only be inferred at this range so we'll see, but ice in the deep interior is also an option if we trend another tick below 850s - not hard from this range. Euro's already an accumulating snow from EEN to CON, which is a step down cold improvement over priors. There's modest polar high draped across NNE... not large, but enough. If we close off a 998er SE of NYC, we likely back the interior ... taking place under an 850 mb that's probably going to be closer to 0C between ORH and BED than currently modeled... +2 is negotiable at this range. We should have a low risk thread going ... It's worth, because like I said, another tick lower through the 1380 low meters and it's the season's first.

there's a sliver of that kind of warmth along the immediate coastal plain... Most are in the mid to upper 60s.

The scalar comparison is for all intents and purposes dead nuts imho. I think you mean Christmas massacre? However, 2015 likely/necessarily wins relative to climate. It was 71 Xmas morning... I recall a town walk with the family in cargo shorts and sandals. I almost felt embarrassed, perhaps 'mocking' and setting myself up for neg karma for it. Over the course of the walk, I just got lost in acceptance..I recall distinctly a kind of Stockholm Syndrome: sympathizing entirely with warm enthusiasts. The immersion was too enrapturing to ignore.. I mused, ".. fine, let's do this through spring and really rattle the climate change cages" LOL. Little did we know, huh - But yeah, we're doing something similar this morning actually.. the old cool front before the real cold frontal wedge of 'warm-able' air, and it might actually be similar synoptics.

I realize the GGEM ( Canadian model ...) isn't very high on people's deterministic priority list, but that model's extended range is seriously loading the hammer cold into the Canadian shield! Much more deeply so comparing it's supposed superior competition in the Euro. It's interesting because all three still show the strong -EPO burst. The synoptic appeal not significantly different from one another to suggest meaning. Days 6 - 10 swells the heights dramatically over the eastern limb of the EPO domain region... Yet, there is the significant disparity among the guidance as to the mass/cold loading that results over Canada. The reason I'm bringing this up is because these -EPO ... I've seen this before. The scale and extent of cold that results down stream is not always correct and can get colder - the models see the mid/U/A table cloth, but don't set it right below until nearer terms ( so to speak..). I've been thinking for awhile that this -EPO is quite strong looking - 'where's the beef!?' It's an attribute the models can fumble with. Not sure the guidance advancements over the recent decade really necessarily improve that one specific performance - 'cold loading over Canada'. Maybe... But the GGEM is < -30C at 850 over a fairly large area mid continent. The Euro is just -22, within a much smaller circumvallate of -20 in pocketed plumes. That's deeply cold, but not entirely bonkers for November above the latitude of Lake Superior. The GGEM is HUGE in areal comparison and much deeper by as much as -12 to -14 C! ... GFS is in between... It has the deeper cold, but creates a kind of W-E barrier jet across JB that ablates it from getting much farther S out in the deep range. I guess there no guarantee that a -3 SD EPO has to load the cold all the way down.. but the GFS's construct does look unusual. It also rushes the end of the -EPO, and tries to send the hemisphere winter packing... Mm. Okay. who knows on that.

Just offering some perspective.. Exceptionally warm DP transport scenarios are not that uncommon in autumn/early winter ... in fact, we've observed at least mid 60s DP events in all months. The return rate for the > 65 ... just estimating from arm-chair memory, 7 years? I've seen it be 71/70 with gusts from the S several times in December over the last 30 years. One year I think we had the highest DP of the calendar year at Logan in one of these in the 1990s, when it was 73 or something crazy - don't quote me. The advent in its self does not impress me nearly as much as the longevity in this case. This has hung in the air for 30 or more hours. More typically, as a cyclone transits through the Lakes, a transient albeit deeply tapped subtropical conveyor spans the distance up the Apps/coastal plain... transporting melted butter air all the way tp Maine. But that WCB aspect is like < 12 hour ordeal ... ending sharply on the canonical front. The primary front's just clearing the region ... exposed by the broken ribbon echo squall on radar that just raced through. Had 20 seconds of <1/4 mi vis rain billowing off roof eaves and waving down the road surface, ...over. Dead calm. So the sharp end occurred well enough. However, the cold lags and it's mild the rest of the afternoon ... delaying. Adds to the oddity a little.

We can tell by the content of your blizzard threads

mm i'd also consider ice option next Wednesday in the deep interior/drain routes.

Yeah I don’t know I was pretty vocal about not being sure whether it was seasonal cold versus something more extreme myself. I remember saying that to Will. So it still doesn’t look very clear to me. There are reasons not to rush the cold east that get into sort of a TL; DR I can’t stress enough that these models tend an amplitude magnification for anything really being handled, facet or events, beyond ~ D 5 I’m not saying it won’t get very cold and sport a big snowstorm. You know the 540 dm hydrostat’s going to align between roughly Indianapolis and Boston and oscillate up and down. With a colder total troposphere than anything we’ve experience to date, so if nothing else it’s a pretty coherent step down

Heh. It’s normal crowd physical group theory lol … give it enough time they’ll be speaking an entirely new language, too and in that new vernacular they’ll have codified 72 different words for snow

NAM is sufficient in the outer grid intervals already. ‘Sporting a -6C, 0 and +6, at 800, 900, and mid BL respectively. Under a sub 540dm hydrostat as far S as LGA. Plenty cold enough at least ~60 hrs that if any dynamics were in play at that time ( which there is not .. just sayn’) that 43 SFC T gets obliterated Caveats are aplenty…. 1, it’s the NAM. Heh, sarcasm aside, the lack of cryosphere in the area is likely why-for the +6. Hefty lapse rate. But those numbers aren’t hugely unreasonable when considering the backdrop synoptics ongoing as we transition later Sunday onward … The NAM may correct a little less cold as typically does but around 540 with a 900 to 800 -2 mean would still be sufficient So that’s the lay in early week - most likely … question is, how much so does that air mass rot further before minoring low passage mid week ? I’m noticing a tendency hold more PP draped over C-NNE, a trend that could help for those hoping

I can see why said that, tho. It’s not completely far-fetched, considering the synoptic scenario out there it’s just that in typical fashion… he leans and spins extra hard in the direction that he wants ha ha ha

Yup … woulda started a thread for D5.5 by now… just not sure climo cold rain (typical Novie heart ache) resonates well enough with this particular social media depot … lol. Yeah …so, two from-orbit aspects make that interesting. The fact that a whole scale pattern change has taken place, a colder one during a boundary month, this then being the first synoptic system two occur during either distinction. It’s more virtue for Meteorologist and more serious hobbyists, perhaps but anyone should be encouraged by the general synoptic hemisphere for only mid November, and seeing/knowing this is happening ( should it actually do so) is encouraging for winter enthusiasts. I guess I’m trying to convince myself to actually do so lol But taking a closer look at that system, it is also taking advantage of both those distinctions; it is moving through an initially marginal cold. Particularly out near Albany up through C—NNE at least cat pawing white rain fatties or start up flakes wouldn’t be a shocker. It is also close enough to marginal that subtle variation in the 850 mbar layout/cold density combined with track perturbations might end up slightly more suppressed etc. etc. I mean that’s how marginal events cash. There’s other problems like… me testing my hypothesis that our flop direction tends to be more liquid than white compared to 30 years ago being one of them for me. Heh.

Nice Miller A/‘NJ model’ hybrid low in the American flagship guidance, huh I was vocal about the Tenn V cyclogen potential after the guard change takes over the continent … Still feel that potential is enhancing. Not sure if the GFS is necessarily honing the right interval - it’s consistency is noted. But the Euro emphasized the earlier interval in the 00z. Both operating within the same synoptic motif - either could ‘win’ and they’d behave/impact similarly Caveat emptor on any of them — the 20 to 30% over amplitude bias of beyond ~ D5s. I feel firing a Tenn V flat dart off the upper MA and sending it through 980mbs …qualifies as suspect candidate.