Typhoon Tip

76/61 average all home stations within couple of miles of down town. 76 at KASH and KBED ... both with DPs similar. Gotta figure we're at or near capped...too many clouds. Tonight is really going to be something at say 10:30 pm when it may still be 70, struggling to fall while eerie wisps of translucent scud pass across the gibbous moon.

72/63 ... I mean, it's hiding the extraordinary aspect of what's going on. That's a helluva combination of metrics on November 5. Still may touch 75 or 76, regardless of 80, having that over DPs that high is exceptional. "thermodynamically" this is a warmer air mass at 75/62 than 2020 was at 81/44

I suspect it's the theta-e inject ... it's hard to get the kinetic side to rise from November sol I didn't honestly look at the DP stuff heading into this weekend, but this low cloud and terrain capping behavior is pretty classic web bulby air -related. My street's damp with no rain having fallen. Heh, in June, we'd warm enough to stop that response but in November? 2020 was dry - check that ...but I'm pretty sure that was 82/40 type ?

We're advecting 60+ dps over the terrain in the interior. You have strata/fog along the south coast from a different mechanism, but much of those clouds in the interior are stationary over the terrain tops. Not sure if that's gonna last the day. Feeble as the sun is...if it can add enough energy to the low levels, it will split the temp and dp and stop wet-bulbing the air mass along the hill tops. Welcome to (November + 62 dp)/2

No one will remember ( or care ) about the CFS's ( Complete F'n Shitshow) when it turns around in a week has a -3 sigma N/A continent -

Right ...and there's kind of a quasi-connection between the "feel it out method" vs numerical inference there. We do in fact have a -EPO burst ... The models are obscuring that by the way, but I implore folks look at D1 850 mb thermal layout over Canada - that reservoir didn't manifest from no where. And all deterministic guidance show it taking over down to at least 40 N by D10. It's delivered, and doing so with basically nill solar input to offset as we're about to enter the nadir months. ... the whole thing turns into a powder keg really. You got so much baroclinic potential in the ambiance that yeah...we look for kinks in the stream. So, yeah.. in terms of methodology, there's quantifiable factorization going on, working together with pattern recognition and "music". If this were Dec already I'd probably have a thread started - I'm holding back in deference to the ugly deceptive "November 5" witch. But, if someone put up title like, "watching the 14th - 20th for season's first winter event" ... I'm sure it would get bunned by less than enlightened intellects but it would have merit. +EPO --> -EPO ... a week later, -PNA ... rises? Go ahead and ignore that when early blocking, cold and snow events have occurred with shocking increased frequency since the year 2000 ( probably some CC aspect to it, a-yup) ... and here we are. Also, the PNA is key sticking point/confusion. The index doesn't have to switch modes entirely? It just has to oscillate in the right direction to send a signal down stream... But there's a relativity to that. It can oscillate and not mean anything, but if the antecedent layout is destabilizing, ...that oscillation means everything. I also find it interesting that yesterday's AO was introducing a downward dovetail toward week 2, while the MJO has been tunneling its way through an unfavorable Pacific. You know ... maybe this La Nina starts breaking down by seasonal change exertion - that would be cool.

Can't get through and autumn without the models attempting at some point either outright, or hinted, fusing the Beaufort Sea with the Caribbean. I remember the GGEM like 20 years ago did this every year. 950 mb low on the Del Marva D10 from a Cat x 'cane getting sucked into a Nor'easter. God, the good ole days of modeling cinema. You younger gens missed out. Then Sandy happens 10 years later. heh -

heh... Folks may have thought I was 'merely' kidding when I poked fun at the notion 'by the 20th' I still wouldn't be shocked. It's out there. It's real. Whether it coalesces favorably of form from the model fog of solutions and obscuring fractals, will require time ...etc. Anyway, there is a pretty clear index modality underway. Traditionally, that is the base-line metric for ferreting out events ( regardless of significance). It begins there. You can due the determination either inference via the telecon mode vs modality, or you can just watch the fucker and feel/'sense' something is about to emerge. This latter technique is quite difficult to quantify but works just as well.. Sorry, it does - the 'fuzzy' logic approach. I think it just like how a Quarterback calculates parabolic integrals to know how and where and when to throw a foot ball ... That is really performing complex Calculus. They just don't know it. Maybe it's something like that. I'm digressing... But it's been suggestive since the last week of October. If it helps the quantity and quality argument, it's not being seen in a vacuum of reasons.

wow...speak of the devil. That D10 euro really would extrapolate that way... -EPO curvi-linear, high latitude flow bifurcates over Manitoba, with a definitive N-stream moving across the N of the Lakes, while the southern branch is about to trigger a Colorado Low ? Just for fun at this range, but that would be a plausible extrapolation -

'Sides ...isn't he the one always harping about ice storms ?

Mm neutral over Deadhorse is like -20 C at 850, no ? If we get into a direct transport scenario entering the solar nadir, ...I guess 'frigid' is relative to region, but that would brick the Earth and send unsupervised kids through the pond ice before Thanks Giggedy -

Just a handful of individual members began showing that in the 0Z Tele connector projection for both A0 and the NAO for that matter. Not enough to really sway the mean line but some of the members started collapsing out there towards the end… Boy I’ll tell you the hemisphere’s trying so hard to switch guards but it’s like fighting itself. The MJO has been unfurling in the early phase 8 and that projection really goes against cool ENSO footprint. Of course I’m not a big fan of ENSOs in the fall but we’ve already discussed that… Point is MJO between phase 7 and 2 correlate with negative AO, so it’s interesting to see the MJ struggling to hold in there with early hints from the AO

Holy Moses what a hammock job it is out there

It's been interesting monitoring the RMM over time... how this MJO wave is tunneling through an unfavorable Pacific... The GEFies have that as a moderate to strong wave penetrating early Phase 8!! It's been unfurling over time, too - that wasn't suppose to get there by Novie 7 (blw)... So, it'll be interesting if continues to bore its way across. The thing is, with the Pac/N/A look tending -EPO burst up there ( perhaps a couple of times over the next three weeks at that) ...this "might" come into a constructive interference if it keeps flirting with it.. If the wave dies by D10 like that ... perhaps not, but it's intriguing to see this behavior 'while' we are tracking the season 'possible' first winter pattern appeal (d10ish --> )

The other aspect I’ve noticed over the last couple days of modeling is the ridge for this weekend aloft…? It’s really the penultimate ridgea; the actual big ridge bloom in terms of full integral takes place next week. But nuances in the flow east and south east Canada are creating confluence—> the big high scenario. “If” so that would limit Ts next week from being as large as this weekend. I realize other people have mentioned the high pressure but I’m talking specifically about the larger synoptic circulation scaffold wrt to ridging.

Nice Del Marva signal on this GFS … … only have to wait 350 hrs but it’s there nonetheless. Heh always a sure bet. Lol In any event this run- fwiw – really likes the idea of pretty much a sweeping guard change at a principal level. Doesn’t include details in backyards

I tend to agree here. I offer there is a chance for wintry appeal after the 15th … pretty much not changing that for now.

Whether the charts have a big glorious EPOridge perfectly and idealy modulating into a positive PNA is just that: that’s the idealize model. Less often does one see the idealize model play out. FWIW, what I’m looking at over the next two weeks is a classic evolution towards a pattern shift; you first get a tendency for these things to dig into the west/high latitudes …and then the natural progression you end up situating aspects further east - that’s all we’re looking at here. So yes it can get warm in the foreground vs much colder later but …can also just do a tepid version of that variance …we just have to wait and see.

For aspects other than merely cold one should rather not see blocks that big on a chart anyway… Blocks that big enter into dreaded tendencies for “compression suppression” blue balls … It’s in the modulation that your lube ups lurk

I think there's a chance we get a big winter dose after the 15th this month... Sort of back-peddling to where I was 3 weeks ago. The difference is that the NE Pac handling has been showing a 2ndary delta in the models - you have to compare a single interval and go back 8 or 10 or 20 cycles and click that same interval relative to cycle like a slide show. It looks like a progressive L/W train moving across oceans and country, linked around to eastern Asia ... All the models have been hiding this this. It's like they running a secondary movement in the 2ndary derivative. Kind of fascinating actually... I originally liked the aft half of the month, because as I posted back then... there is a longer curve statistical convergence: Nina, solar, and season trend, all unique contributors, all suggesting we should end up with a early performer this year... Whether that parlays a single week with an event, or 45 days worth ... not withstanding ( I don't do seasonal outlooks). But this kind of outlook suggestion is a no-brainer - I was just waiting on the models to suggest they know this..well - can't argue the last 5 days worth of NE Pac handling seems like they got the memo. That much -EPO ... getting bumped E in time as I said above, will load Canada precariously with cold - whether that is seasonally anomalous for them or not... doesn't matter. It would be close by and enough for us. It's after Halloween folks! CC or not... it's fair game until Easter

So yeah it’s easier to do bigger warm extremes after October because of the nature of Earth seasonality and the sun and all that … Still, I don’t recall ever seeing a D5 product throw out a +22 like the 00z MEX Mind you… These numbers are modulated more more so out in time by climatology so you know you’re getting a high-Fi signal in order to overcoming climate and still push that number that high. That was always a conventional wisdom. I don’t know if the MOS is still “complicated” that way. Either way … it is what is. Meanwhile the Nam is utterly clueless about what’s going on here; definitely exposes that model as not having the proper heating parameters in the boundary layer which maybe integrates into its fucked upness overall. Regardless…. It really should be parameterize properly regardless of the time of the year. 60 at BED on Saturday. Okay … anyway the max 74 on Sunday for both Fitchburg and Bedford sorry Nashua… probably flirts with 80 ..81 provided the models right about the other parameters

For the audience that cares to monitor teleconnectors… folks should be aware that a negative EPO bursts lag-time in that direction; it tends to progress into a positive PNA as the natural progression, leaving the EPO more neutralized in the wake. - that’s why repetitive negative EPO oscillation is more effective at getting bitter cold air further south east because that relay becomes largely hemispheric mechanical. Speaking to the idealize models that is …obviously these things have nuances and anomalies in behavior along the way too

first shot at a wintry synoptic event before the 20th ...

Euros starting to catch on to what I was talking about yesterday that I thought the EPO might start trending more east… Just based on experience with the models over the years and other tl;drs

The Gfs model seems to really get like a harmonic feedback that amplifies onto itself over extended time…it’s like watching “galloping Gert” It seems to collect all these smaller perturbations in the atmosphere into gradually increased sizes ..,until it’s aggregated into these giant planetary wave lengths. By D10s just basically tends to an amplitude bias. I recommend that the warm spell which may actually end up fantastically so by the way… between Thursday and next Tuesday is legit. The overnight models en masse really coalesced around that synopsis …offering very little deviation or room for differing possibilities. After that? I wouldn’t trust GFS at all - not that anybody is …