Typhoon Tip

Hell, how fat are the woolly bears and squirrels while we're at it. Maybe it all "means" something... lol. I'm hoping we get 2015, ..but not just 3.5 weeks in February. All three months! And, not so much for getting to experience the coveted ... 550" winter ( haha, but who am kidding). Rather, then to have the publications of NOAA/NASA have all three of those months be globally ranked like 3rd warmest winter ever, would be utterly priceless. It would all serve my hypothesis rather apropos, that we here between roughly Chicago and the Maritime of Canada, have a kind of enabled region here in the world, where we don't seem to suffer CC 'quite as phenomenally' as ... pretty much everywhere else. Whether by virtue of the 'warmer relative to normal' occurring at night - look out! Or consummately fielding scenarios that nick hot afternoons off their potential at least imaginable cause... Or getting stuck in a E wind scenario that isn't really BD related, but more a synoptic circumstance associated to CC changing the way the hemispheric mass fields distribute... We seem to live in a red-headed step child cold scapegoated region ... Of all the vicissitudes of geologic evolutionary journey that preambled where we are in this present epoch of history, it was all preordaining that New England be dumpster. To put the dart in the bullseye of this diatribe, maybe CC/global "warming" means 550" of snow here, too. Nature doesn't give a shit how we experience anything. I'm being snarky/sarcastic there, but... it has impressed me upon more than a just a few occasions, how we leave a lot of heat on the table comparing to other areas of the world. Maybe our dry summer was a way to get CC'ed monster in here ? Yeeeeup... sure. I mean CC isn't just a temperature issue. It f's everything up. Meanwhile, we hide in cozy sentiments like, "CC can't explain specific event" ... yeeeeeah, but what that 'bargaining' tactic obviously does is evades the notion that if the climate numbers changed, that means the weather got fucked up - so if the climate continues to change, that just probably might mean the weather events that average to a climate will continue to ... wait for it. Screw up! And in order to do that ... THE SPECIFIC EVENT IS EXPLAINED by climate change - that's just logic! Can we stop applying the 'evasive denial tactic' please and start admitting that the freaks are happening because of CC. Tongue in cheek of course..

Hard to get a bead on what the real full manifold of physical aspects lends to better or lower performing years. I mean I'm not refuting anything your intimating there... but, I just have heard/read more than once over the years that well hydrated, none thermally stressed foliage during gestation times, leads to better color autumns. We experienced neither leading circumstance - Or did we...? I mean the spring was kind cool by human standards, but may have been ideal over the hill sides - not sure. But the summer went pretty hot and lest I risk bringing up the autistic preoccupation that goes on in this social media 'safe zone' (jesus-), yeah ...it was really really dry. (we fuckin get it) We did get a 4-6" of rain rather suddenly in those last 10 days of August. Recall, we had a weird strung out coastal in there that rained pan-regionally to some 3.5". Then we had convection kick in, then a series of those front wall type slow moving cold frontal training rains..etc.. Despite the drought survey, the top 6 feet of earth and root, may have been given water just in time ? heh... not likely - foliage is already set up by then. This just seemed to defy conventional wisdom this year, and as such... shit leading parameters led to one of the more museum quality years I can remember. Have to go back to the mid 1990s -

that mention of " -hail-" there ...hm. What does that mean? right - It's not a tropical system in the modern sense/definition/science, if it's producing 'hail'. May have been Sandy type deal? Where a purer tropical system got sucked into an early season coastal synoptic evolution - in other words going hybrid...very quickly in the imagination. Plausible, if not possible, the account was merely a powerful nor-easter, with one of these early season high pressures elephant asses lobing its way through Ontario over-top. 980 mb bomb with a 1045 mb over-top would get the point across, and the 'hail'? - could just as well have been sleety rain. They don't talk about temperatures - that would help clarify matters. But they do have a "state of the art advanced system" of weather type classification system known to exist in "1770" ... I mean, I'm constantly overhearing J.Q. Public piling in out of a cold November rain, going, 'ugh - there hail out there' circa 2020. Plus, the excerpt mentions N-NE wind... 'usually' associated with tropical systems at CT-ME latitude, they are moving like a bat out hell ( particularly back then barely post the Mid Evil age cold centuries ... when the westerlies are likely activated by October 20s ). Speculating from a climate perspective there, but if was cane it was like moving fast, which the west side wind velocities attenuate due to vector addition/subtraction. I dunno... "hail" ... "less than clear/reliable definition cataloguing" ... "N/NE wind trajectories" and in a sense, "980" mb is a very nice climate cozy depth for a late Octo coastal bomb.. Probably was 970 leaving East Port Maine, and 964 up there west of NF..

the 06z GFS operational takes a modest reflection of this Invest above, and moves it along that similar trajectory to an eventual pass right over Cape Cod. It will be passing over the G-string heat content during that journey - if it stays... - but I'm not sure of the other metrics. Whatever they're sayin'

Oh I am not laughing at you I’m laughing with you. Heh

Up 22 since 7:30. not bad

L O L he’s ready for warmer weather on October 21 after three nights of fake cold, what’s he gonna do when it’s not fake for three months if lead air

It’s amazing how sloped the sun is already. So vividly I can recall the orb tipping warmly into the morning sky … seems so recent. Now at that same time the sun just crawls along the SE horizon.

Obviously there is no such thing as ‘fake’ warmth or cold - a given temperature is what it is. The turn of phrase - if it must be pointed out … - is just a header really, that labels the reason for a given temp as being manufactured circumstantially and transiently disconnected from the surrounding larger synoptic signal. There should be no cause for argument in acceptance of that reality. If we are sensy about choice of label for it … I guess pick something else. But the chill this morning is still gossamer either way.

Yeah ORH is 41 so it’s a lower elevation/decoupling fake cold. Should be 62 at 3 pm Maybe 70 tomorrow

I’m not sure what it is… didn’t mention climate change in that. Granted it’s the most available implication but I don’t know You know … that Super Nino that took place … I wanna say 7 clicks back, turned out to be not much more than a Super Neato. It did not impose nearly as many impacts along traditional climate routes as past significant warm events have. so I don’t know that’s all maybe it’s an isolated thing

Very much agreed. The veneer of the ocean surface/air is only a (warning: big words incoming…) quasi-couple EOS (equation of stasis) That means that what the atmosphere is doing at the sea surface (in regards to wind distribution) tends to reflect in the SST distribution - but that can be transient at intra seasonal scales and does necessarily reflect PDO/AMO — let’s get complicated though… If some grad student with a brilliant insight comes along and proves that the subsurface means less to the actual pattern … like undeniably and quite conclusively… then we can reevaluate The other thing - more of a separate matter The warm pool up there in the north and north east pacific wobbling around since roughly 7 to 10 or so years ago (Will’s gonna love this) Is being attributed to climate change. Not personally commenting to its veracity one way or the other… But the papers out there I actually gave a link either I don’t know one of these threads. But the point is if that’s true then the PDO just suddenly means even less to the pattern - it actually even smacks is passing through a climate threshold the ramifications of which would remain to be seen digress

We laugh but … heh that decoupling thing has been an increasing observation occurrence spanning a decade. I realize you’re not making a statement either way … but it’s not just endemic to the last NIÑA for the general read/straw man.

Lol … not to be a douche but I don’t believe many really think about it that deeply. Heh. Someone once intelligently posited or even merely sounded cogent when stating cold water sucks there … —> forever triggered a canvas of fear. I guess it depends on the audience. I mean there are enough years sampled to force the notion of non-partiality (not a doom signal at all…) that frankly I and I suspect a growing number of prognosticators merely add it to the stew…

Man too bad that inverted mess punches up the coast. I guess if it bides time until Monday it’s less annoying but the Euro/GFS screw Sunday out of what would otherwise be a gem. Saturday looks good. Maybe the GGEM’s better recent trend with that will pull the win coup attempt. Nah..

Haha. Knew people would react to that.

Zactly. Yup

What part of this autumn having a ‘traditional feel’ is unclear or requires a Emoji some of you are dinks. You don’t “like” something … you gotta cast that shade at the content. … well reality called. Tough shit! you don’t get a perpetuity satisfaction sometimes. Lol

I just hope the Patriots don’t return to older tradition… Lol. And by that I mean like prior to 2000

Impression it has conjured in me is one that harkens back. Reminiscent and restoring faith in a normal seasonal progression. And it’s worth saying it that way. It really is … because from Sandy’s to sans normal foliage season, to early snows, I almost can’t recall a Fall that didn’t have a spectrum oddities to contend with. Autumn is naturally going to offer a return to variability … but since ~ 2000 this season has gotten into the habit of exceeding that Rockwellian parody. This year just sensibly touches me like older tradition. It seems observational data tends to support much of this portrait, too. HFD and ORH are -.6 and +.2 respectively. Which for all intents and purposes… ? normal. Meanwhile, the colors flashed across the landscape perhaps just a week later than 1980 … but of particular notice to me is that species stayed within their color wheel. I got used to saying “…that tree never turns yellow or that one never turned brown.” And their timing has closer to overlapped. Two mornings here, just now, back to back with frost more convincingly occurring at just about the precise climate signal. I mean I’m craving warm cider and authentic donuts at this point.

Nice to get the modeling tech an hour earlier soon...

Seems like the Gfs is going to be the new D8 or 9 coastal bomb model

Yeah the models just don’t wanna relent on that idea with that thing up the coast. And it’s not even clear what that is… Mean it starts out as a weakness in the middle levels and then you get this disproportionate trough curvature at the surface-could take on tropical characteristics as we get closer in the modeling time frame. It is getting kind of close in time so maybe it’s just a big inverted trough/warm frontal hybrid. Either way it’s acting like an inverted block? That’s when the high can’t settle south of the latitude flow so you end up with an East wind blowing into the ridge and we get screwed for a nice warm weather which I would rather have frankly. I don’t want it to be like 48 to 56 with rain mist and fog … I’d rather have it be 72 to 76 which is what that ridge would otherwise couch in the absence of that piece of shit lol Good thing I’m not God because it would be 90° until November 15 and then it would be 20° under 10 feet of snow until March 15

Hm. The thing with the MJO … it’s a constructive feedback or destructive feedback mechanism - it doesn’t actually drive patterns. I’m not exactly sure what Ventrice was talking about/his context there I wasn’t in the room. But just adding. …if the baseline circulation mode forces ridging there … then a given MJO materializes over the left side of the RMM monitoring, it certainly would appear to be a huge motivator. I strongly suspect, in the early days of connection with the MJO index, people leaped on using it but didn’t fully understand that it was more of a feedback/harmonic as opposed to an actual pattern drive. In the weekly discussion/publication … I have noticed an adaptation to that conceptualization as more than years ago, they now describe constructive/ destructive interference against the ENSO this or the circulation mode that and on and so on

It harkens back to the more primitive climate model/projections from the early 1990s… They more than less predicted that global warming would cause propensity for ridging over the northeast Pacific. It was kind of an offset idea for cooling over North America as a local hemisphere scale feedback/circumstance for being downstream of a warming ocean. I think a lot of those earlier more primitive model solutions were never revisited, perhaps because the technology advanced and outpaced the chance to do so. I mean there’s like a new climate model projection every month with some paperwork related to it employing some recently discovered feedback mechanisms and all these are based on observations since those earlier efforts so they are really kind of outmoded. Nonetheless, 2015 was a strange year, and there have been other examples where there’s been an increase in the tendency for negative EPO bursts; observationally it harkens back to those earlier works