Typhoon Tip

Here’s something comPLETEly relevant to this forum. Northern perfecters of Japan look like they might get one of those OES avalanches

It’s unlikely the NAO domain space collapses and merges in that way in late autumn early winter. That type of behavior is a spring phenomenon, as/when the wave lengths abruptly transition through the seasonal shortening - support washes out and the residual mass field settles south. April etc it can lend to one of those early 85/19 type T/DP red flag patterns.

I'm not sure I see a circumvallate containing spatial area the size of three Texas' at or beneath -20C at 850 mbs as being any kind of cold being left in Siberia... Okay, perhaps in the scalar sense? Sure, it's not -45C N of Lake Superior. Winter's over... There's nothing there that is 'going wrong' either way. lol - Guys I will admit that 'something' can and probably will, given the time range, 'go wrong'. We're psyched over a pattern look that's post D7 - that seldom ends even above the 90th percentile of expectations. In the rare occasions... like really rare, it goes above that. Barring the 1995 or 2015 redux, if we got 70% of the present look ( fair spit ball) to verify, we're probably batting better than .500 in the dailies. And there'd be enough cold air.

I can just hear some day's meme of, 'yeah, snow pack is overrated' ... It's really popularized quite affectingly when there is in fact no snow cover, too. LOL. But it is perhaps more important than many may think. Particularly for marginal/mixy overrunning scenarios. If one likes ice storms ( ...other than needing their head examined...) that's the difference between 32.8 and 31.1 for ageo flows that drain from that source.

What, you don't read minds?! lol - No, I mean wrt the pattern. That's where my mind spoke internally, but then I only managed to type ~ half of that internal dialogue there haha. Yeah, I mean the pattern is attempting to get extraordinary, in both the GEFs and EPS means. I mean the D10 in the 00z EPS and both the 00z and 06z GEFs appears to be nearing some kind of H500 historical value in the NAO, doing so within an entire hemisphere that's exceptionally deeply descending Arctic Oscillation. The only reason why the AO is "only" -2 or so SD out there, is because the whole hemisphere is biased mild ( maybe that's a CC tugging at that...I dunno - not getting into that...). But, that structure is about as pure a total bifurcation of the PV as is fluid mechanically possible at total planetary scales. These operational runs ...more or less oscillating their runs around impressions that are not "yet" tapped into what all that "could" mean. The embedded events of which ...it's like you are looking Betelgeuse ... knowing that a super nova could detonate at any time. In the models, we are just waiting on the nova to materialize out of that potential.

Something extraordinary is trying to set up out there in between the 7th and 20th of December ...

I can understand the 'frustration' - even though there really should not be based upon indicators, nor the content of what some have described in conveying those indicators. See ...one is dealing with a spectrum of approaches to this subject matter. It's a bit of a philosophical perspective, but ownership of sophistication in any discipline ... unfortunately is typically going to be owned by a select few in the general human condition/group. Those whom are either gifted, educated, or both. For the population density that makes up the bottom of the "pyramid", ...where is hootin' and hollerin' court yard din of the provincial pathos caries on, the information becomes beautiful art. Sideways insults aside, ...when these tools begin to illustrate x-7-q out in a-b-c time range, ... then lets the pyramid mull around with it, they are going to get a pallet of colorful interpretations going, and among those will be impatient hues. I'm being tongue in cheek... Seriously, I would not imagine given the 'indicators' and techniques that much occurs before ~ Dec 5. I mentioned yesterday that there might be a correction event signaled between the 5th and the 10th of Dec. It's still out there... The +1.5 delta in the PNA is what that is based upon, but not just that... Doing so just after there has been a -30 C 850 mb loading event as far S as southern Saskatchewan, Manitoba and western Ontario ... sort of makes the assumption of volatility an easy make. It doesn't have to create a bomb... It can all manifest in different ways. It's just that it's 7+ days away

Early snow distribution like that is actually not that unusual enough to be "fascinating" really? Not from my experience during later autumn into early winter climo over eastern N/A. I mean, if we get to Feb 1 and it's still like that, sure. I'll bet anyone dollars: tipping the flow up the coast with warm gales, while a polar jet dives thru the mid west shows up in the event annul/catalogues fairly often from mid Novembers through Christmas. I mean fwiw, I personally lose anecdotal count how many times I've seen trees leaning in turbine gusts ... bathing the MA and NE in 60 DPs, while wet snow was upsloping from WV to eastern KT. It seems like the return rate on that is 1::4 if not 1::3 for years with that storm type. Just happened 2 winters ago on Xmas - although that's a bad example because we had already put snow down in a solid pack before that massacre took place. My point is ... in the lesser extreme sense, just having the flow orientation favor the cold west, first, isn't "that" unusual. In fact, ... I actually covet a kind of good feeling as a winter enthusiasts, whenever the trees lean - because I can recall enough occurrences where within a couple of weeks of those event types, hell broke lose. So much so that I've begun to unconsciously associate: 'ooh that means...' It's not a huge mystery why that were the case. -EPO --> cutter and warm surge up the coast --> neutral EPO (+PNA) --> boom.

Hmm.. The AO is getting impressively negative, harder to ignore. Even considering the mop-ended members at the CPC, that's a massive signal - whether the operational version does or does not reflect that mode/modality out there toward week-2 at this time or not. Just a cursory look ..it doesn't, but the dailies in the extended have plenty of cold hydrostats spanning the Canada shield above the border, and occasional synoptic bleeds down to ORD-BOS (~). Enough to assume there's shared signal there if perhaps obscuring in the daily din of the runs. The EPS at D10 from what I've seen is structurally into the negative phase state above the 60th parallel on whole, but just a spatial surmise ... probably less than the GEFs? The overlap with the NAO is also impressive, with timing and concerted signaling way out there toward week-2. That's unusual to see all members, other than nuance differences ..., essentially exhibiting the same modality with that particular typically stochastic index. Short version? polar field telecon convergence big time toward the 2nd week of Dec, and given to the neg EPO happening during the run-up time span ... these signal cold ( and likely...) stormier times. No problem from my personal assessment. The PNA is also ( btw...) signaling there should be some kind of correction event ( H.A.) between ~ Dec 5 and 10.

Anomaly renditions also aren’t helping perceptions there I think. I mean at least a little… Some users see ‘warm’ tones and it’s not inspiring or triggering the dopamine. Heh. But I suspect we’re going to find more so going forward over the decades that it’s more about the geometric structure than it is about anomaly colorization pallets because thats going to be biased in the warm tones so long as it’s being compared to last century etc and CC is what it is.

So it's beginning to look cyclic wrt the EPO. The ensemble means re-emerge the signal, but hold it in position, like a standing wave pattern. That telecon/mass field doesn't behave that way though. More likely the ridge collapses south into/forcing +PNA ...follows within a week either a whole-scale repeat, or the hemisphere goes a different direction ... This appears to be doing the former, with a similar -EPO signal prior to what took place bac around 7th-12th of the month. The operation GFS has some unrealistically deep cold waves gong on out there in the deep range, but I figure that for typical amplitude isolating out in time.

-maybe it'll dawn on folks that ENSO just isn't as factorable as it used to be

Yeah so...I don't know what others thought are at this point. I'm sort of in and out with holiday travel - But I see attempts to fumble around with the hemisphere and the -EPO may not be dead. I don't see the recency with that index as necessarily an isolated occurrence in time - tho that could prove to be the case, I think less likely. I've felt this way all along, and the EPS is showing -EPO/western limb, but with cold loading pattern into western Canada with classic new and/or re-surge -EPO forcing after a week or so. Meanwhile, the GFS operational...despite SE ridging, keeps sending NW mid and upper trop trajectories through western Canada - whether that is representative of a -EPO ..that is probably vestigial if not a nod to the EPS. I guess the short version is that I am not pessimistic as a winter enthusiast for December. If the EPO does renew, ...yeah, I don't have a problem with sending a warm up through the eastern continent, at least for 3 ... *but* with the faster CC transition season velocity bias ..we keep having to seemingly/mandatory move into new regimes faster than initially thought. I realize that -ENSOs tend to x-y-z a winter to hell and back ...but I'm also becoming less of a fan of ENSO factorization in recent deltas/decade(s)/gradually

Not to be a douche, but the NJ model idea isn't new for this thing. I was trying to encourage the forum last week that the canvas hemisphere really supported the NJ look, rather than the stem-wound and/or Miller A... Nor the Lakes cutter, either - credit your dipping tendencies with -NAO for that. So, gradually ... the models got that memo. Fast moving more open wave that may or may not have some vestigial potency. And you're right - perhaps the thermal profile being more not like 1987 (1986). Those were some NJ model low examples. Marginal leading atmospheres. They could also just be called November model lows... they tend to be the favored flavor as the gradient starts to steepen and warm seasons initially resists.. Anyway, ..as is, it's not actually even very marginal - although the 00z Euro sort of hinted, with that pocked 850 mb layout.

This weekend is also really trending as tho it was heavily a magnification fantasy …seeing some minoring perturbation through the “model horizon lensing” I mean normally we can assume some 20 or 30% over sell but geesh. Some of these trends are really extrapolating toward less. I think it’s a flat NJ model type low. Warm version for now ..

Just a muse... but, seems the -EPO switch a couple weeks back, combined with that minoring 'practice event' ..et al, sort of got the "group mood" into the winter disco mode. In the groove so to speak. Then, right during the syncopation of that music comes a few distancing model runs ...like the those GFSies, with cinema starring long duration ice/snow and a cold loaded system... That was rotten thing to do. Haha, it was like a joke - one that would work particularly well on this group of proven users. HAHAHA. wah wah waaaah. This system this weekend, however, looks pretty typical, a normal November maintenance/pedestrian at this time. November is heartache month... The upshot for winter enthusiasts is that we still have ... 3 months coming with better odds/climo so it's no real loss. But relative to this particular time period, it may have been cunningly deceptively designed for an easy audience.

On the road for the holiday... The 'Miami Rule' is in full effect this week. It's a standard measure/observation I've made over many years regarding the heights and the balanced geostrophic wind prior to the arrival of amplifying waves through ~ 100 .. 110 W over the mid latitudes. What happens is, the southern aspects of the trough exit region/jets enter into a negative feedback, because as the height falls approach ~ western TV ... against heights positive height anomalies - sometimes insidious in the latter sense, because the anomaly can be positive relative to the hemispheric footprint, which doesn't necessarily register as above normal in the scalar sense, in itself. These terminologies make all this sound more complex than it really is... but there's not a lot of other ways to describe this shit... lol..

Heh. I see a month way above normal so far. Lol.

That and ... the vast continuity blow up is clue there lol. That said, I don't believe an inland solution ( ORD to Ontario...) is really favored or very well physically supported by the synoptic footprint during that period - not that you or anyone has asked me for my op on that. Still ... I said a couple days ago that a flatter open wave ( potency to be determined...) is favored, which would more likely lead to a NJ model cyclogen type of scenario. I thought as awkward as the continuity shift was ( and the details contained ) wrt to the Euro solution ...it was a nod at trying to go more that route ...like a gross attempt. The GFS at 06z really did go that way almost entirely, though it is more toward the 28th.

I’ve been largely discounting the oper GFS’ last ~3 cycles.

I'm not sure there was ever a Tday threat ? ...I think you mean that period in general - okay: but... caution that the event of interest is/was 26th... and fair enough to say 26-28th. That's still 9+ days away - we haven't really passed inside of "model climate" predictive skill horizon at that range - things tend to start coalescing ... albeit subtly at about 6.5... I think if the western ridge is proven more progressive, we can materialize the present D9 entire evolution more CFS' last two cycle blend. The trouble ... I don't like that approach just yet, because it's committing to more east coastal implications, while anchoring the western ridge near the Great Basin - that's an interesting choice for a forecast model that actually has "climate" in it's formulated title... but we'll see. I also think that the Canadian canvas is hugely available for modeling corrections... I mean the Euros nebular April looking noodles up there at D10 isn't impossible, but is less fitting climate than even the CFS coastal idea. That's a fun solution by the way... I don't have a lot experience with the CFS...I check for fun and boredom cleansing ... heh, now is one of those times I guess. But seeing as it's out there at 192 to 228 hours and not out there at 750 hour ( haha), it is what it is.

I'm not sure how to interpret that personally ... I "think" it may be suggestive of a 'transitory pattern' ? - which is oxymoron, because patterns cannot be defined when the system is in a state of change ...but you know what mean lol. Anyway, that could be perceived as an emerging +PNA ... There's already a vestige "+PNAP" in that image, though it's crowding E of Chicago for taste... But the Date Line positive anomaly is a huge wild card...If that presses east/proves progressive, this whole look would likely mirror in two days and -PNAP takes over. I could see that going either way. The trouble in deciding which extrapolation is the overall "flat" construct - we are out there in the 360 hour range... a lot of that is likely just typical chaos means getting more entropic, so yeah.

the only problem I see with the day's meme re the Euro is that the Euro verified very well recently wrt that total circuitous curve migration there, spanning the last couple of weeks. So... past performance doesn't guarantee future accuracy? no - buuut, in this case, having the model's recent performance verification also "fit" the La Nina circulation footprint so well ...doesn't lend to assuming this next wave pulse will do anything very different than destructively decay around that same region prior to moving out of the marine continent. Some skill in seeing at least a modeled W pac typhoon migration tends to also precede the MJO if it is going to be successful in doing so.. It's a probably more of a fuzzy correlation, but the tropical W pac has almost zip anvil debris N-E of Guam for a reason. It'll be interesting to follow... it's always interesting to test assumptions - part of the science of the thing.

The analogy tactic is an effective means. I like that particular design lol I did say, “unless there are very certain/specific metrical observations ongoing ..” that’s saying the same thing re getting all the “100 variables” in line. My intended take away there, is that it’s not a silver bullet big winter salvation. Specifically as it relates to those very high altitude “edge of space” mass regions and their perturbations … A planetary wave decay/intrusion taking place in the 30 or 50 mb levels underneath completely supplants any 10mb morphology. Etc. Agreed.

There’s definitely troughing amplifying over east continental mid latitudes approaching the holiday weekend in both ensemble families. In fact the EPS shows a fairly robust + PNAP flow structure (as does the GEFs) pulsing in and out of existence thru that weekend. And given that’s going to be a transitional scenario… the models are not likely seeing enough of the “real” structures through the fog of uncertainty there. They have to get the pacific to North American interval correct because how the date line to California flow situates more precisely being accurate, that goes along way in determining the amp downstream over Chicago to Boston The operational runs, vacillating between a blown up ravioli or more stem wound low going to Detroit… all those solutions are within the envelope of possibilities associated with what the ensembles still canvas. Something should be there unless the PNAP evolution mentioned above doesn’t occur or pancaked. I also see things in the basal flow foot that are negative interference. Unless those modulate (which there is still time ) we may not be leaning toward a very deep, cold coastal low. At this time it looks like this should correct towards a flatter open wave during that period… That opens the opportunity for something more narrow in latitude …maybe along the lines of a New Jersey model low. Subject to change.