Typhoon Tip

And it would be a neat trick if it did that prior to mid winter seasonal SS stressing - if even then. The Pacific warm pool, as it has come to be known in oceanographic and climate circles, is a recurring warm eddy that is become multi-seasonally coherent ... Which by convention of spanning years means it is surviving modulating longer-term teleconnection modes, regardless, too Folks may not want to hear this, but attribution science from some sources have eliminated all other causes ..leaving just GW as the reason for its persisting. Phys.org is a site that does a decent job in re-baking advancing studies into consumable material - they'll typically mention the publication where the original work can be found. An example of a study, https://phys.org/news/2022-06-systematic-pool-pacific-due-human.html There are other references to it the warm pool. In fact, I recall the very earliest global-scaled attempts at super computed environmental modeling, attempting the projected future after ..so on and so on amount of climate change from way back in the early 1990s. Those primitive technologies ( by today's state of the tech/science) predicted that the NE Pacific would tend to ridge, send the N/A continent above 40 N into relative cooler offset region. That magnitude of those characterization may not succeed as such.. but, two present day aspects hearken back to those earlier attempts - for me anyway.. The first being the Pacific warm pool phenomenon. It's sea, not air, but given that PDO is largely a resonance response over time with the mode of atmosphere SS stressing/distribution ...that perhaps argues that fractional increases in ridging in the Pac NW/ EPO domain space may have been more subtly a modulating influence - the ocean betrays that forcing. The other aspect is that despite N/A also warming along with the rest of the world, we are slightly cooler N of 40 N and E of Canadian Rockies.. One can kind of make that out here ( c/o NASA), ... where the N/A land region is lagging some behind the other N. Hemisphere over-land regions. This is the 1884 --> 2021 aggregate temperature difference. So the combination of the Pac warm pool and this above.. seems to give at least a nod back to the primitive climate model efforts from decades ago. And so... the Pac warm pool may be inexorably connected to climate change ... I mean if it's anchored in that causality, one must wonder if the -PDO is a new base-line

Climate tends to be realized + whatever it is doing to change ... But in this concern, having Kevin and Scott be AN for August while the rest of use are in a deep negative, is setting a beautiful precedence for where the winter numbers will occur to offset these imbalances ... lol I'm totally fine with the rest of us getting tons of winter precipitation while eerily ...those two discrete, small locations are always seemingly missed -

As a remarkably fortuitous result ...the 12z Euro demos precisely what I was illustrating with words, re my thoughts for September. If one loops the his link, https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&rh=2022083012&fh=loop&r=npac&dpdt=&mc= ...it's a beautiful teachable moment/product cinema, showing an absorption of western Pacific Basin TC, and subsequent large -WPO response immediately, then translates to a -EPO burst .. In fact, if anything this result at D8-9-10 needs to consider Euro tendency to over amp features in that range. Nevertheless, if 80% of that mass field distribution works out, we're setting up a broad deep layer NW flow through the Canadian Shield. It's as near as D9 in this movie above at the end of his run. That's a bit sooner than even I anticipated but... like I also said at the time, this would be waiting on aspects to emerge in time. I just didn't think the emergence would happen a mere 2 hours later LOL. Anyway, the ending D10 would probably suppress the 80 isotherm S of the 40N ... perhaps deeper should it materialize. First western N/A

Thought you sea-ice hobbyists might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2022-08-greenland-ice-sheet-faster-irreversibly.html It's land based snow/ice and not really specific to arctic sea ice, but ...seeing as the N Polar cap doesn't have the southern continent upon which is saddles the ice, ( like Antarctica) I think it's worth it to consider Greenland's capacity for storage and release in the total manifold of the northern cap. We should be including the sea ice gain loss with the Greenland quota - or at least exhibiting interest in both.

yeah... the DP's definitely closer to -18 man, this is hot as ballz down here. 92/69 averaging these town home stations. KASH is 91/71 ... Thing is, we haven't really suffered the highest DPs imaginable this year... I haven't actually seen a lot of 90+ coupled up with 70 DPs, so today is right up there for that combo HI thing. I mean it's not as bad as the history week of 98s or nothing no. But it sure looks like summers back is broken, huh - lol

My thoughts on September as posted in the last August thread ... ha! are that with the activation of the western Pacific tropical season (delayed but not denied) that makes for uncertainty at the quasi-seasonal outlook scope ( 1 month lead). Typhoon Tokage recurved and 5 days later, we saw a modest 500 mb anomaly roll south through the GOA region of the NE Pac, ..triggering a W N/A wave response --> lending to tomorrows trough and cooler air arrival. ...There was at least a transient AB Pacific flow type response that has succeeded. The impetus being, these are effectual changes. Not all recurvies are coherent in that regard... I suspect the predominating western N/A ridge signal all summer and still on going, is why/helping this time. The two aspects are actually a constructive interference. ...should the recurve phenonmenon continue in the means, these evidences suggest that early season cool incursion E of 100W may become more prevalent. Hint hint, I suspect it may. Why? the last known MJO related momentum was in the Phase 1/2 region of the RMM, which is correlated to that behavior. In a sense, ...Newton's first law of inertia applies: objects at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force. Typhoon Hinnamnor is modeled into the China Sea but appears that is as far as it will get before curving around that longitude. Then 98W may stall while that passes over head, while intensifying, and then it may rise in latitude on its heel. Experimental, admittedly ..but it's behavior that fits the circulation modal history and thus going forward. So combining the Pacific behavior and the other constructive interference schemes above ( or quasi in in that regard ) .... that means I've written way too much for the average reader to give a shit anymore and they are now thumbing Instagram posts. In short, I suspect we see more +PNAP structures over N/A, that are not likely a part of the present catalogue of available guidance means at all really. It's an expectation for an emergence. That's probably when summer really 'ends'

Heh... this is what "attribution science," a very quickly evolving discipline .. if for no other reason, out of shear necessity, is for. We can separate out aspects like 'conditional vulnerability' in a process known as "scaling equations" - I'm sure you've been exposed to that, I'm speaking to straw people and the general audience here. But that leaves remainders after what has been accounted for in the total polynomial affecting/effecting the environment, and if that remainder satisfied the equation of AGW ( for example..), with very close tolerances ... that leaves AGW as a high confidence causality. That's how I've gathered the concepts of how attrib. works... And it's mathematic and doable/intuitive. 2010 and now, are within the CC manifold, fwiw - I'm seeing increasing frequency of attribution science - related findings landing on AGW ... and CC in general, as the problem. I understand your sentiment and respect it. I could be wrong in the way I lean, but I do lean toward this being presciently suggestive of the future and probably not going to end well. I LEAN.... ? I don't doom...that's different. I'm trying to be proactively warning without sounding like a zealot - which is almost impossible in the present cultural climate of wanton compartmentalizing people into political and/or fringe lunacy at knee jerk scope and value... (Jesus!) whenever this subject matter "necessarily" enters dialogue. But whatever... My biggest fear - other than babies drowning ... - is that these kinds of events will spark of massive diaspora/climate refugee phenomenon. Like Serbian/Baltic region ...but happening everywhere like a slow moving panic wave... Sounds like sci-fi dystopia writing, but we already saw a mini version of that when drought choked off the lively hood at sovereign scales in that Baltic region about 15 or so years ago. Anyway, that might set of geodesic instabilities ... here comes the wars... There are really two climate changes, with some lag. The primary is the geo centric stuff; the 2ndary is the human response climate.

Whaaa ... didn't know this is/was going on. - although ..psfft, it's gotten to the point that someone some where is doing a 1::750 year return rate shit show on this planet, seemingly daily. You know, wild digression but general civility ( uh ...prior to the proceeding removing much of the "civility" from the complexion of our species) really needs learn to associate CC with two aspects. A global realm that is warming .... + destruction At a minimum, a destruction of the 'way life used to be,' when that demolition is not physical manifesting to life, property (probably should say 'geography' here), and infrastructure.

yup ...I'm not fully convinced NYC-S VT won't cash in off of it with some 00z to 04z either spill over boomers or perhaps collapsing wind pulses and residual vil crawler lightning, under which .4 to .8" of rain I like the 06z, 12 km NAM with that super cell in NW Mass ... Just saying this stuff because I walked out to sample the air this morning, and the aroma hearkened like that first convection/dewy morning you get in early June.

Heh ... it had better! right ? the statement you bolded was meant more in jest - humor... The missive overall is sardonic comedy. Brewbeer got it - fw his emoji iw That said, I would still focus on this: "At some point, unanticipated (adding this word) persistence penetrating through institutional methods should start to question the validity of the methods" That is clad advice in life - ...but as it pertains to this, expectations of winter may or may not "justifiably" include snow and cold - not engaging in that hyper discrete aspect. I am however definitely confident in the notion that they are 'f'ed up'

has to to break at some point ... the problem is, not sure if anyone objective in this engagement/hobby/profession has bothered to notice, but autumns have been particularly topsy-turvy in recent decade(s). Autumns have always been changeable since the Earth decided to tilt with respect to the plain of the ecliptic ... but no: the scale and degree of stochastic instability is on a different level than the previous 300 some odd years of climate suggestion. It is summer and then it is winter and then it is summer ... prior to the winters sucking donkey ballz - that is the leitmotif, the recurring theme, regardless of ENSO this, polar index that, AMOCs and PDOs and whatever overly-reliant astrological teleconnector is in use. At some point, persistence penetrating through institutional methods should start to question the validity of the methods. Winter does not = snow and cold, anymore... It has evolved to = f'ed up. The problem with that is... no one does, because it means no winters. And then there is no forum. Oops - hahaha. No but my point was going to be, it seems harder to define a sort of 'week the back broke' ... I guess the easy way to do it is to graph every years diurnal averages down to the day. And then look for the inflection points. That's the point of no return - I'm wondering if more recent curves have multiples or approach that. Of course...heat enthusiasts will feel jilted if there are still runs toward 90 F beneath a given year's inflection but.. you know, 'back broke' is bs in the first place and seems an unreconcilable muse anyway.

Get used to it. … the heat aspect. What does NASA know? - I tend to agree with NOAA and/or NASA re WV injection … which probably isn’t saying much. Lol But water vapor injected into an ambient atmosphere pressure that ranges fro 100mb (bottom) to .04mb (top) would disperse very rapidly due to saturation vapor pressure, as the plume first entered. So it’s spread out probably approaching homogeneity by now … it’s a potent greenhouse gas but, likely too gossamer in this state to significantly augment the temperatures - which nothing unusual is occurring.. If there was some form of planetary scaled mechanical forcing it would register in part as a thermal inversion

That’s faked just in case …

Heh. No one’s asking me but imho this summer was an aridity outlier, an anomaly that actually fell outside the already established/empirically verifying predictions of CC elevating ambient theta-e. Shows -perhaps- that good ole fashioned variability can still yank things around.

Yeah I'm not being very good about this today lol... uh neither? I was just meaning in general, farmers or gardeners or enthusiasts et al, just sort of don't bother by this time over that region up there. More along that, rather than climate hard freeze or just a frost, or just 40s-hating plant gradations and stuff. I mean you can grow if it doesn't harm the plant in question. It's been weird in recent years. Like warm enough to grow toms right into early November, provided you miss the foot of snow that's 'never happened before' in on the 20th of october

Couple of sporadic 90 readings otherwise it seems everyone's 88/66 or thereabouts. Warm sun. Low wind. With occasional saw bugs ( I guess those are Cicadas). ... summer doldrums

Not to miss the joke like a deliciously tedious spectrum annoyance ..but, shouldn't that be about over up there anyway? N. NE should be nearing max color in 2 weeks, right? Actually - what are the numbers on that shit. I thought it was like Sept 15 across the N drape of VT-NH-ME ...then Oct 15 nearing Worcester ...etc. But around here, ... tomatoes is all I have ever had really growing after Aug 15 ... maybe peppers when I want the bells to turn red

Oh...okay I see. The report I saw had to do with the dreaded sulfur-D fwiw -

Hmmm ... Seems SPC has been playing catch-up with this convection signal shooting out ahead of the "Tokage cool down"/amplitude and front. They currently have the southern Lakes in an ENH hashing, also... have bumped tomorrow to MRGL just west of the I-95 corridor. I'm not abundantly sure they won't have to promote that yet more east and/or elevate a stripe to SLGT... Timing is a limit or a help, depending...it's sort of an event moving at the rate of the transient trough sweep through the area so it's possibly spanning more than a single period. 12z NAM grid has .11" at Logan Wed by 18z with -3 LIs, torrid DPs and still SW trajectories. Fuzzy for now

Fwiw ... NASA et al have already released statements that the Tonga eruption was not sufficient to significant forcing. Not sure of the exact wording or their methods in making that determination.

There is a way though ... That soupcon of hyperbole I leveled above was meant more 'as is' and is tad exaggerated The NAO is however trying to slip negative, and the GEF mean/synoptic cinema up there does show moderate 500 mb h anomalies for about 7 days before the deep range entropic decay rings the world ( proving that it is useless to run it out that far -). Anyway, yes the GGEM does dive a trough into the Lakes D10 to serve as a capturing device - should the NAO start exerting an influence more toward the western limb of the domain, it could prevent recurving - but it's like a REALLY small chance of all that.

agreed fwiw - as of right now, I cannot find a guidance system that offers even wiggle-room arguments to the contrary. Based on all those sources, whether in blend, or in sole depiction, there is 0 mechanical way to get any TC in that time range to affect the Eastern Seaboard. Now ... for cane enthusiasts, all is not lost. You still have the 144 ( give or take day...) hrs for the planet Earth to figure out how to modulate the entire circulation envelope from Japan to Greenland ... 'so you're tellin' me there's a chance'

Actually, Brian and Tam' my statement wasn't worded the best way... sorry. I was really thinking along the lines of September datasets, alone - relative to the history of September ... I guess 'climate relative' didn't have enough context there. Obviously 70+ can register in December - we've seen that several times. Those are pigs. One doesn't have to be an accredited climatologist to see the aberrancy of 70 when it should be about 39. 1998 did it for several days in a balmy week. As 2006 did a similar SE ridge domination...may have even been 60s in January from the same pattern persistence that year, prior to the Arctic Oscillation crash in the 2nd half of the month. I also remember several single night wind swept southerly gales over the decades. Those are not as rare in late autumn or even early winter as one may think ... with temps an eerie 71/69 just ahead of a ribbon -echo squall and strong cold front. One of my top 5 favorite snow events of all time happened a week after such an experience back in 2003. Man... so much nostalgia it's hard to type ( admittedly) ... but, it was a distinctive 3 stage epicosity. The warm gale; the polar boundary intervals; 2 day lull --> 20" powder storm right down to the Sagamore Bridge ( when SSTs still hover in the 50s at that time of year no less). But it is an interesting question - what are the greatest standard deviations to those local seasons; yet more discretely, those months. Because the first half of winter, the Eastern Seaboard is more likely to to experience a S transport warm event.

This is an interesting if not 'odd' question? Because most years ...that does not happen

heh... yeah - right. I would wonder if 103 on September 7, might be the greatest climate relative standard deviation temperature ever recorded in New England.