Typhoon Tip

Y'all should start wiring some internal psycho-babble circuitry around the notion of winters not being good, more likely than being good.. moving forward//a part of how the changing global environment forces our local climate paradigm. That's code for, get used to it. There will be good times... but they will be outnumbered by bad perception eras. Now, some of that neg-head perception will be biased in unfair personal greed ( LOL ) and borderline delusional expectations... But even accounting for that bag of cats, there are left over real dogs in the bad winter manifold. We have seen accelerated base-line mid level jet fields all over the planet, regardless of polar indexing and ENSOs ...all of which are screwing the previous more stable statistical correlation/teleconnection projection methods, including ...seasonal outlooks. Those that don't except this will default to seeing the world through a dysphoric lens and never be happy. Those that do... may take joy/appreciation in smaller fan-fair. Such that when the increasingly rarefied big result happens... that'll be the some seriously awesome cocaine! In a hundred years of climate change ...those folks won't have ever known what a Feb 5-7 1978 looks like outside of memory cards restored from the dystopian rubble world.

ha... I was being droll - I get it... winter + scorched is an interesting motivational circuitry. HAHA

This is embarrassing but I admit to not understanding how the definition of scorched-earth applies to what this engagement is/means to people ?

Be my guest ... you can even do so without citing the source I don't go anywhere outside this sub-forum space ...save occasional peeks and missives over in Don Sutherland's climate threads - otherwise no. Don't dare. Not until Brian or whomever really runs this show not only strips that 'Buckeyfan1's' moderator status, but then bans the c-sucker's membership - along with any other petty little superiority basement trolls they are allowing to run amok ... That way, you post it and you start getting PMs or post pot-shots that explaining why your insights are garbage- they just allow too much disrespect that is frankly not even asked for - one should not want/need/seek their recognition. But you just don't do that to people you don't know... Social mores ftl

Sort of indirectly related ... This relates back to those aspects re the summer pattern bias being "fake" cold? ... Not entirely, but ...the structure of the flow has been a facade of cold more so than not. There have been some cooler air mass latched ons - but not really very many. Too many 80s days inside those; no, the chilly nights we have observed are not/have not been because of CAA. They were home grown radiator results from having such parched DPs in the area. Deserts drop to 32 and rise to 100 as an extreme example. We've still managed 84 those recent two days down here along Rt 2 in N-central mass, despite 48's or whatever the lows were "lying" about the cold air mass - and that's sort of been part of this last 45 days of persistence. Proof, we are modestly above normal across SNE's sites. Not entirely lying... I mean thermodynamic/wet bulb temperature is probably more important, physically, than all else ... but you get my meaning. I just suggest this unrelenting pattern bias to pack heights back west is not actually coupled with the kind of lower heights we are more conditioned via education and experience to thinking we should see back east. Those paltry lapse rates you describe sort of exposes that reality ? All it has really done for us is stymie big heat from getting here. Nothing else.... it's like the whole behavior of the thing was singularly destined to prevent that one metric - kind of amusing...

mm... not a fan of having morphed aspects into a necessity to upgrade down there. Let the chokin' begin... I guess, however, we already have 60 to 65 dp advected in as of dawn and we're working it over with ample sun. The idea that the ceilings were too pessimistic/SW flow climo was the right call though, as there's clearly more clear skies and insolation heating going on. Most locales from PHL to PWM are already in the low 80s/low 60s... So there might actually be enough in situ along the northern extension of risk to sustain activity. It really just comes down to bulk instability - if there's enough, there's enough.

The model has yawed dramatically between the 06z look and the immediate/previous 00z look, on every run now for 5 cycles. I suspect the poorer contnuity is a nod in favor of your leaning/ I concur... My thing is that I don't know if it will result in so much heat - per se. As I was mentioning yesterday, I am more confident of the 'flow relaxation' than I am of the higher heat and or any ridge propagation east. Pattern changes sometimes begin that way - but doing so in the middle of summer whence there is a natural dearth of forcing larger-scale mechanics is heh... Some of the relaxed look could also just be intra -seasonal nebular summer climatology/circulation mode, too.. Bottom line, the sensible impact is bit less certain. The 00z Euro/GFS combo has a 4 day heat wave. 06z GFS ... has 66 at Logan one of those days! Can you look at KFIT? I'm telling you ...that hygrometer needs calibration. It's registering 57 and all other NWS sites, including EEN over to MHT are 61 to 63 ...as well as BDL/BED/ASH... It's a dry hole there all the time.. curious what other Mets think

NAM lingers DPs into Tuesday seems like the front’s trying to washout. Euro had looked a bit slow and non committal at 12z too.

Did science ever figure out what purpose mosquitoes necessarily need to provide in order for ecosystem vitality?

That actually gives 4 .. 5 day 92/73 style heat wave east of the hills

Blocks big western heat but opts instead for WAR-like airmass surging up the coast from heights retrograding into the MA

Vastly different GFS run

ALB FOUS grid exemplifes ^ 24007695916 -1694 031913 73261911 ... up to 26 C in the T1 WITH RH in the ceiling levels < 60% ... also note the wind is popped around to 190 deg in mid boundary layer. Hydrostatic hgts to 573 dm also suggests the theta-e is stacked some in the sounding so this looks like CAPEy 18z NAM run. NAM,... abut the only thing good about that models is 30 hr lead convective signaling... At least that was the case back when it was the ETA lol

This looks to me like it has a sneaky chance at 0-3km direction helicity being more positive than the "unidirectional" bulk shear contribution/focus noted by SPC. It's just awareness of local climatology when you have a pre-frontal trough tending to form ahead of the main cfront, and then along and ahead of that feature, the lower level gradient not being too strong to overwhelm, the wind actually veers more S in the Hudson and CT R Valley and also somewhat so east of ORH hills - should anything survive into that area. The other aspect is that with DP coming in overnight/predawn ( diffused warm front associated with hygroscopic advection) and that fits climo for things to cut loose later those afternoons. I also suspect we may do better with morning heating. One, sw flows tend to be too pessimistic with ceilings in the models. Two, aridity in the area is likely to gobble up some wet bulb and dry the column as the theta is advecting in. You win for more sun, and getting CAPE back with the T

Looked to me like 86 to ping 88's in the area, and that's what's happening across the NWS sites. The home stations are all 134 but that's typical on a sunny day of wizardly awareness to the necessity for environmental awareness/calibration consistent with garden variety enthusiasts .. kidding, but the DP's supposed to shed in late - admittedly though...not seeing that very convincingly, upstream. EWR is still 88/57 so not exactly at the doorstop yet. Still, the steady advection probably works with surface based radiation to keep us elevated over previous nights and tomorrow will be steamier. Not sure about NNE per se, but this forum's too f'n big

We shouldn't be surprised... I've been ranting about it for over a month... every 2 .. 3rd day, the models try to usurp the pattern and remove the SE Can flow nadir - Euro's 00z run may be the most egregious example of that yet. Only to have this same 12z GFS routine just cancel the effort. I dunno - I did see more individual GEF members biting on this pattern change thing. I can also see an argument for the GFS being too R-wave happy in that range ...a necessary artifact for its bias to accumulate too much cold heights/gradient out in time. So not ready to pull the plug but it's like Brian said... keep persistence in mind -

The one at the end of the run is a sub 564 dm phaser though - It's lala time range like you say, but this model won't relent until it succeeds autumn on August 3rd and the seasons first synoptic snow by the 20th

It seems the background zeitgeist is really becoming numb to the summer heat stuff... How many times can a person read or hear a headline espousing dire heat, ...while sitting in or near access to environmentally controlled option? Eventually it's compartmentalize for later consideration when it comes to time. 'Okay - it's part of global warming' as they return to the pressing attention of the moment, 'whatdya want me to do about it?'

Mm... I wouldn't say 'clock is ticking' in spirit of what that means, on just July 11. Plenty of time... I'd say that on Aug 11. I mean, if we're going to play that interpretation game, we don't typically get very large numbers in June anyway ( although that may be changing in CC/future... who knows), so we're only 11 days into the "hot climo" - it sounds like rushing things.

Oh sure... Personally? I don't play the inventory game...I'm just reporting what it looks like going forward, and that folks should probably not expect the same as where we've been. If this/these changes did not appear legit, I wouldn't bother. But to answer your question for the sake of muse, ... mm, I kinda do mind that... I don't like having to wait out 90 days of anadyne nothingness in the winter.

Some of the GEFs individual members ( 00z suite ) actually look more Euro like and even add some, like this guy above. That's 606 ping DAM over ORD there! ... zomb. Just to be goofy for a moment, given what's been proven heat wise can happen already, and our own points of discussion re synergizing big heat globally and coming home to roast... et al, is there any doubt that 100 F plexus above? The means is obviously less than this. In general I agree, and as this method of 'cross guidance' also suggests/adds confidence, it's probably more legit this time that these laze faire days of wonder may become rarer.

Not to be a nudge but the hemisphere might be entering a regime change and/or 'relaxation' of the recent ~ 50-day (and counting) persistence. The verdict is till out on which... It's been utopia, really. I was just commenting outside this social media, this is the 3rd consecutive morning dawned utterly flawless in the heavens, in every direction or dimensional metric of observation. It's like mesmerizingly serene, in still purified air of low DP under unadulterated blue being penetrated by cathartic morning sun. Some 50 mi visibility air mass lingering for 3 days??! This latter aspect is interesting; it is exceedingly difficult to pull that off at this time of year, when continental bio phages and industry et al, cook in the sun to chemically generate ozone. Moreover, it is not cold at nights, either - just seasonally cool for some but mild for most .. Yes, there are gossamer chillier outliers for being decoupled stranded dales, but everyone has been recovering to Hollywood pool party afternoons. And it's been going on for weeks... whaaa Someone recently made the conjecture/metaphor to this being the antithesis to that 2015 Feb. I'm not sure that's a terrible comparison from a purer statistical scalar percentage. I wonder ... if the odds of getting a 2015 February are about the same as sustaining nearly 2 months of this Pandorian dream in spring into summer. Lol, imagine trying to submit that study for a Master's approval - It's really been, most of the recent way ... (when considering objective observation + all subjective intents and purposes )/ 2 = the best imaginable weather that can be produced by the Terran system... That said, I don't believe it will be as well supported, moving through and beyond this week - although the weather won't be horrible to some individuals. I mean...we have to keep in mind, some like sack-sticker sultriness. And no, this isn't just because we are approaching the apex of summer climo. This is more to do with the mode of the circulation showing some definitive changes as we near the 20th. I feel pretty confident we are relaxing the flow - at least that much, beyond D6. There is a coherent enough signal in the EPS/GEFs. As usual, it is the operation versions day dreaming as to what that will mean. The Euro wants to completely alter the hemisphere in such a way that removes the SE Canadian nadir that's been like The Man Who Came To Dinner. Really by D10 it is completely zonal through there, .. an aspect of summer flow structure not seen probably since 2012 (lol). Meanwhile, a NE Maritime/D. Straight positive characteristic NAO. By that time, it's modulated >90% of the entire contiguous U.S. area to > +18C at 850 mb! I don't think I've ever seen that modeled. The GFS, while relaxing, still nods to persistence. Though it finally stems off the gradient and velocities of the erstwhile, unusually strong polar jet, it still 'sags' the flow and offers enough suppression to keep the model's general cool bias alive. I don't know... but the Euro above seems excessive, where this model's patented cool bias in the extended sort of offset one another.

Very warm day incoming. Looks like 88 over down town traffic jams under high sun. Wouldn’t wanna be a roofer or an asphalt layer Smell of rising DP late afternoon sets up a milder night. Tuesday is unclear. If the sun penetrates more it’ll nick 90 ahead of dry cool front. It would be better if we get some rain out of that.

I've been pushing in the other forum threads a suspicion that we are getting a lot of this persistent pattern bias this summer as a feed-back from heat. "...Climate change is producing aridification in the Southwestern United States. Aridification is the process that leads to a hotter and drier climate. As part of that process, ..." The mechanics of heat feedback surrounds hot air deflecting right (thermal wind component then subjected to C forcing ). Such that if there is a basal flow tendency to ridging in the west, the two become constructive interference and the pattern then becomes harder to break down. The bold statement above fits that hypothesis.

anything that threatens 'totem symbolism,' where familiarity feels safe as a method, as being untrue. you know...I've often thought of the paradox science has to battle. It's simply not mentally tenable to too many, where all people tend to fear what they don't understand? Those big scary technology created models, ... the cinema of which requires Navier-Stokes tensor analysis ( lol ) telling us that our summers of lore and winters of yore may be more or less over, prooobably fits something trying to abolish people's comfort zones...