Typhoon Tip

ok, so looking over the ensembles, cross -guidance, there is some sort of event or risk around the 19th/20th - mind you, D8/9 is extended range, but not exactly over the horizon given the day and age. It is of the open wave/progressive handling. It is also a sub-index driven event, which is interesting, because the pattern from Japan around the globe begins to rapidly modulate toward a +PNA and/or a pattern that would burgeon western heights - so + "PNAP" either way. By just short days later, we see that really taking over the ensemble means. The atmosphere is tentatively marginal+1 ..so likely rain.. And there is still western biased solution potential. Nevertheless, there have been run cycles offering more cold high pressure over QUE, so a colder profile scenario and track suppression is an option on the table Re pattern change: Again...it is not merely ensemble suggestive but is also derivative by other means related to shorter and longer term air and/or sea telecon. There's suggestion of their source regions coming into constructive interference - of course predicated on a some stability, which is unfortunately in question. We'll have to see. But I get the personal sense that it is real. Probably a -AO (modestly)/+PNA with a negotiable NAO ... So far the EPO does not appear to lead this transition with the canonical negative burst, which may be a good thing for the nerve-spooked winter enthusiasts ... Not having to suffer seeing week of the continent imploding through the Rockies first in the guidance would be nice for a change ...

When was the 10th idea floated ? This period has frankly looked like shit to me the whole way… The idea for circa 20th has been suggestive in the ensembles, but only recently has that been derivative from a broader inclusion of both technique and observation.

It's a little fast... broad scale systemic changes are likely in the circulation mode ...pretty much all over the atmosphere, but the timing is really 20th+ ... It is not clear if that above is part of that. There is going to be more confluence evolving in Canada as part of the new regime, ..woulda thunk more 25-ish. That 1040 high has some deep 2-meter temperatures associated with it. Haven't seen a lot of that this year. Bit of a first... If future guidance start flagging these polar highs, the notion isn't lost.

Oh ... speaking of Will's 2015 homage to flat snow pigs...

It seems you folks are setting the bar rather low. Personally ..I'm not worried for the NYC s-forum, not on Jan 10 - not from what I'm looking at. Will revisit Feb 10... Observed pressure and wind patterns in the deep layer troposphere signal an ENSO break-down may be underway. The recent attempt by multi-guidance source on MJO propagation through ( albeit low amplitude) phase 8-1-2 is already in a constructive interference with a firehose Pacific anachronistic NINO flow. A planetary wave reshuffle toward a NE Pac AB circulation mode is not altogether a terrible fit for a longer resolution, as longitudinal flow tends to precede the materialization of ridging. That's the pattern modulation... where's the goods? Agreed, but we set the table first. Noting some recent GFS cycles did take a primitive stab at an index scaled event ...way out toward 270 - little or no actual deterministic value at the this time. Give it a week. It only takes one event in/when the global pwat budget is what it is. You could bang out a foot in 6 -9 hours from clipper/NJ model low and still see the sun sun set.

Very active Solar/space weather implications ongoing ... Nothing imminent, ...however, X1.9 class flare exploded from AR3181 yesterday (9th), and though no CME expulsion took place ( as well, it is escaping the eastern limb) there are two that have arrived over the western limb recently. '82 and '84 both both are Earth aiming over the next day(s). Both contain unstable delta fields capable ( also ) of X class flares.

Succinctly stated lol

interesting .. I've been waiting, and there it is - the 12z GFS is clearly offering a first primitive attempt at the concomitant index scaled event ... With limited/no deterministic value at this range. Probably a week,.. .maybe a click or two less? we may see a system to consider.

I wasn't being sarcastic. However, there's questions as to whether the changes would necessarily play nice for winter enthusiasts (20th and thereafter). In short, +PNA likely to return. But if the +PNA is only moderately amplified and/or sets into the hemisphere through a warm (relative to season) Canada and a pinched off high Arctic. Longer ... Not just relying upon the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFs way out there from D10 onward, either. The changes are in the systemic machinery at planetary scales ... We are all aware the recent MJO monitoring and forecasting has a phase 8-1-2 presentation/migration. Something is in constructive interference - or modeled to be so - in order for that to take place, given to the erstwhile La Nina. CPC's weekly publication released yesterday, corroborates that idea "• Some changes in the observed wind patterns in both the lower and upper atmosphere portend a potential weakening of the long-lived La Nina." The MJO is not driving the pattern ...but the models predicting its current behavior, combined with these observations in real time, suggests/implicates a paradigm shift. The La Nina isn't going away on a dime..no. But, the pressure and wind patterns tend to lead the SST distribution, so the decoupling we've been seeing over the last ..since the week of Christmas, really, may signal the beginning of the end. That's quite plausibly beginning to take place. The constructive interference already beginning ...lends to the +PNA. The ensemble means all suggest this ... pretty coherently picking a date, too. Right around the 20th. In fact, the D9/10 of the operational models are in primitive detection as of last night..

Big changes coming …

There are actually people getting degrees in lawn and turf. Boggles the mind -

I suspect the “fraudulent” cred may in part be because they’ve probably been overused and abused. The first sniff out in guidance from four or five days out may not even be interpreted correctly. I’ve seen this before, in general. People incorrectly apply concepts of meteorology to what they’re seeing and saying. They reach for IVT this and ANA that … it becomes the meme of the week … ultimately fails and then everybody has a bad impression for the journey. I mean there’s some of that too. Fact the matter is all those aspects have produced.

Also… There seems to be a failure to understand that there’s a distinction between storm frequency and what’s actually falling from the sky. 10 storms in 1930 vs 10 storms in 2020: the 10 storms in 2020 precipitating more. there’s nothing else. it’s that simple. and it’s because a warmer atmosphere in which the 10 storms occur in 2020 are formulating in more available water; more available to condensation processes in the atmosphere resulting in heavier rain.

Actually I doubt a phase diagram of that Vortx out there would demonstrate it’s got very many tropical characteristics now that look at the evolution. That looks like a typical pinch off low to me

I don’t know if it’s been ‘awful’ or not… I mean you may be completely correct about that I’m not responding to address that aspect – but I do know it Carrie’s on with a progressive bias - which has been noted et al. And I frankly have been discussing it for about the past 10 years, that it tends to accumulate colder heights on the polar side of the westerlies more prodigiously than all the other models Such that by D6s and especially 10 out in time it’s almost as much as 10 dam colder everywhere on average. Now that imposes a velocity differential wrt the other models and that’s probably accounting for its progressive bias - i’m pretty sure bias it’s registered against verification as well. But I think it’s important here. A progressive bias is stressing the trough and is causing it to split or bifurcate as its leaving our longitude. Such that the N piece runs up into the Maritimes or does whatever it does but the southern piece rolls out over the warm Atlantic ocean and there you go - subtropical storm Genesis.

I’m sort of in the Pope’s corner on that… I’m not a huge fan of those ANA bulges in guidance. … but I’m also open minded. I can see where there’s going to have to be some accounting for a lot of mid-level mechanics rounding the bottom of the trough. That makes us a little different… Which obviously we have a look each situation. Even the GFS with its tendency for progressive bias at all scales is showing a burst of snow over western zones mid day Saturday. So yeah it’s a good way to look at it , expectation-wise. – just trying to make a little chicken salad out of chicken shit

No… He doesn’t. And a couple of times albeit rare, where he showed a (maybe) modicum of awareness to the notion, he’s then introduced us to a new layer: impenetrable stubbornness. Replying phrases to the affect of ‘I’m going to stick by my guns … it’s not going to change my opinion’ Which isn’t just stubborn he also misses the point, evidenced when he responds like that - not getting the connection between that posting tact and subsequently not being considered a value in discussion because of that delivery. Which isn’t just a styling problem… He’s also wrong - call a spade a spade - In the first place because global warming is not eating us alive and every CU cloud bubbling up on a chart isn’t a blizzard. I’m being a little harsh admittedly… But sometimes you have to put a dash of salt because bitterness unfortunately carries the truth the best way. He has said things in the past that seemed more lucid… But then I saw yet another layer lol. When somebody responds to the lucid post with something encouraging to move a conversation along, he then replies with the word blizzard. Hahaha … really excitedly too

Yeah that second sort of delayed/quasi Miller B idea’s intriguing looking in the 12 Z GGEM. Definitely trended I mean it’s not quite there yet … actually it is there for the Berkshire, so it’s already making a move. 12z GFS now with an 18Z Saturday burst of snow NW zones … have to see how this evolves during the week

Well … it’s not IMpossible. The models don’t really put out solutions that are impossible… They may be physically less likely – but that’s up to the forecaster to accept or deny what they’re looking at etc. etc. This is kind of a tricky situation. It’s rather unique - seems more and more systems as of late have seldom observed aspects. But in this case we have a transient opportunity for Western Ridge to really feedback on amplify an eastern trough - and it’s a very good looking evolution at mid and upper levels. However, the bottom of the troposphere is just too warm everywhere in lateral dimensions. Very weak baroclinic gradients. And what the models are doing is resolving that by not providing any resistance to sfc cyclone response, very early in the wholesale evolution. That’s why-for the early low up in Ohio like that, and then weakens shearing out through St. Lawrence - it’s because there really isn’t very much support aloft (mechanically) for the low to exist up there - warm air is killing us this season so far to be blunt. But that’s why that behavior is doing that. Then, model still have to accommodate or rather account for all the mechanics swinging around the bottom of the trough where - if it were colder out ahead of this thing that early would’ve waited because the boundary layer would resist cyclostrophic circulation. It’s called boundary layer resistance…. So the total result … a split with some low development shearing out early and then the wave developing a stride the mid Atlantic may actually take place as the mechanics come around. It likely will. No idea from this range “weather” will be bulge back west enough to do with some of these models that are suggesting that

Okay so there’s convincing suggestion for a significant pattern change after the 15th .. 20th Details later ..,

Not to be a dick but… the idea of this wave event splitting into two has been on the charts in more or less suggestion for the past week, actually. It’s not so new. I suspect we’re just getting around to noticing it. I kind of miss lead people myself because I thought the the lead wave was really a warm advection burst or thrust pushing up through New England. But now that some time’s gone by the models caught back up with that thinking it looks more likely that it’s just lack of cold air in the antecedent setting is causing the storm to mature a cyclone prematurely relative to the trough amplitude. That shears from Ohio through the St. Lawrence seaway. But the actual better trough amplitude happens later and that’s what the GGEM and EURO are picking up on. An idea that the 06ZGFS actually hinted a little bit towards doing also with flashing over the Greens with a late wave development

Both sides are wrong ... And both sides are right ... Neither is going to acknowledge that in either direction, so the engagement is likely futile. This California "correction" is not going to "balance" the last decades of deficits. They'll flood and have land slides, and big snows in the Sierra, ..all that. But the fact will remain ... ((30+ years average) + (this season's contribution) ) /2 will still = negative California's epic season is not climate driven - climate does not drive storms. It seems there is a decay in the general zeitgeist in understanding this. Climate is a numerical result of means and averages over extended periods. The weather creates the climate - not the other way around. That was better understood - or becoming that way ... - at the water cooler and bus stops of Americana 10 or 15 years ago, but it's slipping - it seems. Yahoo-ism is taking back over. Promoted no doubt by irresponsible reporting by mass-media, as well as the uncontrollable content of social media's ginormous impact on the modalities of Humanity - at this dangerous point in human evolution ( 'nother hell altogether...). People are becoming knee jerk "reactionary attribution specialists" wrt to this climate stuff. This California type of season happened in 1982 ...years before this hockey-stick acceleration in the global climate had begun... And there are geologic evidences if not just annulled facts of river events going back centuries, too. There are two climate concerns ...overlapping. One, the strike on the west coast is part of the many varied Earth system normalcy. The other, the atmosphere on Earth is warming ...which is measured fact of truth, against said normalcy. That cannot be debated. You cannot simultaneously observe a rising thermometer, that corroborates with physical sensation, and claim the temperature is not rising. To attempt to do so is fantasy.

We're also getting roasted by a Pacific flood on D9/10 of that Euro run, without a "PIG" low - as y'all call it.

Huh... does the Euro qualify as a "cutter" ... seems it's like a "east-based cutter", if there can be such a thing. ...which in the absence of enough cold air, in January no less, must also qualify that as a "west-based boning" .. I don't know. I was thinking driving around this morning doing errands ... we can squeak a better result out of that thing, but it can't go west or we're cooked. Some of the GFS runs have been getting close, but then would Miller B just in time... What does the Euro do, summarily goes west. But it's doing it from Cincinnati to Montreal, which is a trek less traveled. Yeah... I also think the lack of cold is killing us this winter. We can't seem to manufacture enough ... it either rolls out or just moderates, too quickly. If more cold, dense air would slab into the NE ahead of this thing, we probably wouldn't be in the waiting room out aside a Turkish rape clinic ...

Oh, so you were talking about the 'modeling' of the telecons, not the telecons themselves. If that's the case... yeah, they've been more unstable in guidance performance...I'd say that began roughly 10 years ago. I recall in the 1990s ... + and - regimes in PNA used to last longer. They same to Rosby roll-out/back with far more frequency now. That instability ... the models are going to inherently not do as well performance-wise. As an aside... that all began roughly when oddities of extremes increased in frequency all over the globe, too, winters and summers. Probably, not a mere coincidence. The teleconnectors work ( by the way...) because what it is really all about is "conservation of mass" If the heights are high in one spot, they have to be lower in another. That's just physics in a domain where mass is neither lost or destroyed, as cliche goes - but is apropos. Now, it doesn't have to be 1 to 1, either. Using the NAO again for an example, the domain could be in a very deep negative mode; that doesn't mean that the compensating positive (the teleconnection) is all concentrated in that one spot - there can be an aggregate of local maxes(mins) that suffice mass balance. There can also be general miasmas of positive heights over the NAO domain that are more tepid with one deep vortex balances that way, too. Sometimes a big NAO block will have a parade of smaller negatives that in total and time, amass to the balance. etc... The correlations exist, because of that arithmetic. Now, to make this all actually confusing ( LOL ), that is all happening in perpetual motion.