Typhoon Tip

Synergistic heat though ?

We're all doing the 90/58 down here ... hot, but because the HI isn't terribly high we don't get to complain about it

Mixed ideas... I could see the dry feed back part, but "definite" isn't a term I'd prefer to use in the context of potential, for "100+" in deference to New England. The signal for a hot spell ...we've beaten that dead horse. But it's been such a long lead we're waiting days and days and days before getting a more confident feel. Climate argues no, duh. Euro has a BD tickling the nut hairs of NE Mass D9. You know, heat is the most fragile, corrective metric of all weather related highlights at extended leads. It's really there on the charts because everything else pulls away and leaves the region alone - anything at all passes through even minoring, it may mean 15 F lopped off the top.

If there is a big heat day(s) in that range, it is still out in the GFS's tendency to suppress the westerly jets and mash the planetary system toward the equator. It did this all last 5 winters in a row, and we see vestiges of it in the summers in the form of this kind of compression south along the Can border. That said, they could both be wrong about the areal significance of that that period, in which case the Euro comes south and the GFS goes north, and both have to correct toward 92-96 ...which is probably the climatological safe route at this range anyway. Then if some kind of freak show synergistic heat bomb finally comes here ... we'll see that emerge with more confidence in time.

Just posting about that in the August thread ...seein' as that is August... heh But yeah, gonna go ahead and assume the Euro is too well mixed/tall with the adiabats. It's 22C at 850, which is impressive for this region, but that really supports more like an impressive 102 as the ping max, considering our deeper pressure well and how hard it is to expand that -

Heh...that D7 is 104 at Logan, easily - don't have to look at the 2-m .. but it has 106 as near-by as Cambridge LOL Not sure the 108s out in Framingham is real ... or any of it for that matter... lord Not sure how it keeps Logan 96 given the surrounding synopsis ...but, that hover temp there is out around Waltham or so

I guess it pertains more so to August ... but that's quite a Euro look for D6 through 10 Backdoor contention D9 ... if that fails, that's 5 days straight of 97's ..probably 94 to 102 from ORH to BED, with some history potential.

Now the GFS is back east with the thermal ridging... not sure I buy it with all this instability and squabbling against it's own ensemble mean. I still lean warmer than normal - no comment as to the extend of what that will mean for civility. Although..I do sense that we may have two days of 90s, then a half-assed relaxation for two days, then a longer heat wave ... all fitting inside the next 10 days to two weeks. ...something sorta like that

No idea this was even happening... https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/29/weather/kentucky-appalachia-flooding-friday/index.html And that St Louis flooding last week? It's really been a stalled boundary in that vicinity. I remember reading this in my adolescence. "The American Weather Book?/Almanac?/Atlas?" - can't recall which ending in the title. It was thick-ass 3 incher, packed with essays and photos and weather charts that described every phenomenon there is in weather and climate, associating maps... gray cover. Awesome. Hours of focus like a late Millennial walking off curbs over an iPhone enthralling... but 1979's version of the distraction: actual books. Yeah, gaslight intended... But there was a discussion in there about how the greatest floods come from either tropical disturbances, or... stalled frontal boundaries.

Yeah... not withstanding the 324 la la range ... it still illustrates how the operational and the ens mean of the GFS keep divorcing out in time. It's been more prevalent in the extended, so I haven't personally been bringing it up. But we are here about to either set the table for a signficant heat wave, or... miss one ( perhaps MCSing instead) ... and this discrepancy in the GFS system is smack on when they tend to have their marital blowouts - Euro's also being peevish with heat moving into its extended but it's not abundantly clear it's for the same reason. They both have identifiable bias behaviors that are distinct as far as my own experience.

purely supposition ... I would not presume this to be an EC expression year for tropical demographics - heh... even more boring than the climate signal. The battle will rage on deeper ... probably until mid Met autumn ( Oct ides-), between the subtropical/HC expansion while the La Nina failing circulation mode above mid latitudes keeps trying to pancake the flow with a shallow trough from ORD to NF. This latter stretching of the field will ensure a active recurving mode to anything nearing the Bahamas - That's more just a feeling. So, big heat. shut down. Re-hydration. shut down. TC season. Albeit rare for us anyway, shut down. It just seems there is another trend, buried in all this snark, that seems very real though. There's a tendency to keep neutering all event profiles down to the least plausible uninspired and not interesting result.

hope we get some water... these last three convection windows have left much to be desired, regionally. And tomorrow, looking over guidance', it appears we'll still make the mid 80s but with a return of that desiccating air mass type. DPs of 50 with d-slope additional katabatic drying, waving through fields and trees in operation water sucking life right out of the background environment... dry begets dry. I've always hated that statement, ... quite likely because it appears to be so true and it's my own petty hang-up. empirically, though, the data is what it is. Maybe just perception, I dunno. A dry period is dry so long as it stays dry or event roll out that way off the dice. And just like the crappes table, you can have successive lucky roles. Or maybe there are real physics at play. Maybe it's both - probably. Call it whatever we will, trend also is a valid prognostic philosophy. So we should go ahead and assume the drier side until such time as the erstwhile mode has quite obviously changed. When? Oh ...probably when the first synoptic nor'easter in Sept or more likely nearing Halloween - which may snow again by the way ... We'll be back to no drought condition by thanks giggedy.

I don't believe I ever said the telecon spread 'screamed' in spirit of what that sounds like. Lol - In fact, I've been tacitly aware and bearing mention all along that teleconnectors are iffier in the summer months, particularly true with the PNA. It was the combination of them, however, with other longer termed conceptualized aspects, together, that might offer more signal in total. That's a lot of conditional baggage ( actually...) using that experimental approach. That said, yeah... the PNA corrects aggressively over the next week's worth of days. I posted the these back on pg 86 of that July thread, Other than very minor perceivably insignificant differences ...these are still essentially the same as of last night's derivatives. In fact, that continuity - thus - from the GFS ens is/has been remarkably stable. Particularly for summer. That is a highly concerted clustering around a total 1.5 (abs value) correction downward. Meanwhile, the NAO is correcting up aggressively, though not quite in the same magnitude - together that's suggestive. Basically the total thinking was/is... (still-) Iffy PNA confidence gets a bit of a nod because a positive NAO tends to lift the westerly/ambient jets, N over eastern N/A. Whereas the -PNA is a +geopotential medium over the OV, those two together carry more weight - even in the summer. The other aspect that is longer term/conceptual is that the La Nina summer correlates to a -PNA. What is interesting there in, we have not seen a very negative PNA summer. In fact, looking back along the PNA curve above, other than a 10 day stint during the first half of July, the entire summer has been in a +PNA dominated mode. As an aside, it annoys me that NCEP keeps referring to everything being in our out of constructive(destructive) interference with the La Nina base-state. Base state? The +PNA would appear to be in conflict with that assertion - we have not been in an atmospheric La Nina base state, and in fact, I would argue that the ocean and atmospheric state is largely decoupled. But... they are not very explicit beyond making the statements, so perhaps they are seeing some other metrics in making that determination re the base-state circulation mode. .. Back to the dailies... None of the above 'screams' anything. It only tips in favor of warmer departures. The operational versions are also seemingly going out of their way to correct the heat signal the moment the ridge starts to formulate. The operational GFS has been routinely a western ridge outlier compared to the ensemble mean - so there's a bit of a native inward squabble. Either the operational will concede, or the ens mean will... Or the compromise.

We had a strafing of showers and thunder come through this area of Massachusetts earlier this afternoon so there’s some stabilization from that

snapped these off both 20 min then 5 min prior to the brief thrashing.. The first photo(top down) those towers were glaciating but this exposure makes them look less so

Cell intensified right as it was passing over here in Ayer. Nice 7-10 min burst of low visibility rain. Est .4" almost immediately - it was really water boarding out there. Also 35 est wind gust. No CG but a few CC

We have these cutesy crispy but narrow towers glaciating along an E... well, along the Pike and scattered about down here. It's hot man.. wow. Wasn't expecting a 90 deg day but it's 89 to 91 at all home sites within a mile or two of mi casa, and the DPs are 70 to 73. HI of 97 with crispies poking over tree top horizons is high high summer. I wonder if we can organize a cool pool wedge to come plowing into this region toward dark..

90/71 here ... interestingly, the HI is 97, which puts today on par with many of those days in the recent heat wave span.

Spring is a huge variance. It's either rectal plaque, or utopia - seldom in between... but tends to bias on the left side of that turn of phrase.

Meh... to each is his or her own. Fwiw - ( prolly not much ...) I find summer fascinating. Particularly because it seems to be a good time of year to see how the changing climate is really brought on the age of the 'synergistic heat wave' and also,.. changing aggricultural aspects. Forcing even species migration behaviors. It's a really good time of year for direct CC sciences not so much in and of its self, but in the collateral damages - which is where the world is entirely living, is in that space. The climate can change all it wants - doesn't mean shit if it doesn't harm. But when we have Lone Star ticks showing up in Maine ( i.e., from Texas) bearing pathogens that force the infected into a life of veganism, to Serbian climate refugees in a state of diaspora out of rapid onset drought region/causing destablization of that area of the Baltic region/geopolitical problems... I mean god, and everything in between, this is hugely fascinating. For global/environmental sciences.

Yeah ...I-ya, I post of mushrooms. It's the way I roll -

Crispy towers around but they're tipping over and ripping away from their updraft sources prior to glaciation. Have seen some alto-strata altitude severed heads moving west to east over top lower/newer attempts. Sat confirms these observations/ type of sky.

No...and that's my point, too - agreed. Expectations and education - despite our hardened enthusiasm and engagement in a "weather related forum" ( debatable some times, eh hm), we are not really well situated to have realistic expectations and/or real experience based education. So yeah... 10% chance of getting anything means there is a 90% chance you get jack-shit. It's low-yield, high impact. How does that girl that died last week at the Sebago Lake camp grounds when a big pine fell on the vehicle she was occupying, no doubt to flee the storm, feel about the fact we spent three days lampooning SPC's efforts since the last 'bust'... I'm not trying to gaslight - though it sounds that way..lol. It's we all do it. It gets boring and then we're overcome when anything happens at all - perspective fails in that circumstance.

"tornadoes" are a tough ..because the average tornado is a pinprick over a geographic area that is so vastly large by comparison, you can't really see the tornado at the scale of the watch box its self. It has to be magnified by an order of magnitude or more to even see the debris path. But, the thunderstorm and/or aspects containing the vortext are much larger, and can be seen and/or thus experienced with more frequency at any given point, simply for occupying a greater aspect within a watch box. Still, they are much, much smaller than the total watch box geographical area, so they are still on the short likeliness of actually experiencing... Ranging up to MCS, which can be almost equal the spatial dimensions of a watch area, and pour out 70 mph wind events, behind which there are nodel DBZ cores with hail...etc.. Sometimes even tors... That's when severe watches get a bigger unilateral realization. But, then again... how often are those kind of MCS happening .. Bottom line, yeah ... probabilities are low whether the watch is marginal, or very impressively warranted, either way. It's a matter of how low in either scenario. I wonder if regional acclimation is part of it. Like, they'll issue a watch for 2% coverage potential in Maine, because they don't usually get tors...But they may opt for some specials in Oklahoma ? I dunno

Actually ...DPs recovering more than I thought they would. Boo ya modeling...which showed 69 to 72. I keep seeing DPs getting swallowed though, reclaimed perhaps by antecedent aridity in the area. Anyway, there's some lag in SE NH/N MA where is 60s, but it is 70 toward the Pike and SW. There seems to be a diffused warm boundary in the mix here this morning... An hour ago, WPC analyzed one down near NYC but it's probably smearing across the region and losing identity. I'd say it's probably now closer to the Pike looking at obs ?