Typhoon Tip

I can see crispies and anvils W

You can tell this is more likely a wind problem...

If they're gonna issue a Watch they'd better pull the trigger... Cells popping over eastern NY are moving at ludicrous speeds.

Yeeah I'm not completely sold on the DPs hanging in like that along the coastal plain ...N of NYC's latitude. I've seen this countless times. When an active well-mixing west wind is situated in a prefrontal environment, such as what's going on right now, too often we get a kind of quasi-dry line. It then sweeps east. KALB was 74 ...then 65, now 62 and the front is still west of there, so ...that could be some indication that we may peel the moisture away from the area -not always modeled well.

Recent hi res visible satellite loop/trends finally show some tendency to break up this 'tube' of convection dumpster juice ... That's step one in substantiating this thread - LOL, or forget it. If we can do so sooner rather than later, and get thermal recovery going here over the next hour, that allows even asking the 2nd question: is that enough? It could be in time to destablize. In reading the SPC stuff, the mechanics are not overwhelming, but there is some unidirectional forcing. There is no question that SB CAPE would balloon if the sun floods through this decaying linear cloud scung. But my own rule of thumb for convection around here is that we tend to really need mid level lapse rates to be sloped. It seems the CAPE has a chance to be anomalously high, so that may offset ... but we gotta get the f'n sun shining here quick.

LOL... flooding an island. It's like the negative exposure to, "desiccating the bottom of the sea"

Some day ..some how ... maybe when Quantum Mechanics becomes the entire method of observation, exposing a reality that happens beneath the emergence ( illusion?) we perceive for our ability of observance in nature ... that there are in fact different kinds of cold and warm fronts that in total, combine to make the one's that traditional/conventional means to define boundaries in the atmosphere never could see. Your ob sounds like a candidate scenario for that "science fiction" - you are not on the south side of that QM boundary lol. Seriously, sometimes it seems like there are really boundaries that just aren't defined by physical meteorology. They're almost like "tendency boundaries" Actually, 'spooky action at a distance', a quotelet that roots to the earlier days of QM, might even impel a definition like, 'INtendency boundaries'

Looking at the rad history outta OKX overnight .. kinda smacks like the convection preferentially occurred where the sun worked over all those 70 DP readings yesterday - recall, the heat was drier in nature N of the Pike and it seems the DP was having trouble actually penetration much N of that ~ axis until very late yesterday. We did finally get more dewy here late in the evening, but the activity was already sparking off S of the Pike and choking off what probably was not a very deep fully integrated theta-e/unstable layering still lingering nearing Rt poop ... Just a quick rip-and-read post mortem on that eruption.

I've noticed over the years with this region of the country, when it comes to summer weather types there's a kind of 'budget' allowance that is a shoe-string in nature. Very little to go around... We had ours two nights ago...when a forecast for maybe a mere passing shower turned into a line of pea hailin' multi-pulse CGers out of nowhere. Overnight it was S-SE allotment, while we get the .03's That's the budget for this week. We couldn't get last night action up here, because we've had our share already - symbolically speaking.. But it really does seem to fall like that around here.. Not allowed to have a heat wave without paying a persecution tax in form of 18 or 24 delaying BD front, being another example. Or if we do have convection that even sniffs severe ...usually we manditory 3 days immediately ensuing with autumn DPs and -.5 diurnal averages. ...funny thing is, I was joking yesterday in that (unfortunate that all good intentions must lie in ruins) wasted thread space convection thread ...that the whole set up looked like a S orient anvil vomit for us and it smartly takes place - but overnight.. We'll see what happens today, but since both N and S are now even, that should pretty much leave nothing left ... lol. Ah hell... sometimes in the summer these morning misty miasmatic satellite inundations can thin ... mid mornings, and allow some destablizing.. we'll see.

Canceled

79/72 DP air finally arrived here

I have employing the use of NAM ..( used to be NGM/ETA ) FOUS grids since I came of Met age ... back whence the dinosaurs ruled... and I can honestly say, I have never seen RH levels this parched at all major ceiling levels ( bold left) at T1 temperatures ( bold right), that would support 2-m T of 86 48000251819 -2407 142912 64251709 that's @<25% RH at 1000, 700, and 500 mb Sunday at 18z under the tallest hottest sun of the year. For lawn enthusiasts...? dead meat. Tell you what, if we don't get that back-hung 3 hours of steady anvil rain tomorrow evening... that should red flag-aroni warnings

gotta love these well-mixed days. HFD/FIT/ASH/BED/BOS all 91.4 and bouncing...

Be careful there That is what my run in with [probably] the Omicron variant was going to be - so I thought. I had a mild head cold and some mild malaise. No fever at any time. But, I could tell something was off so, ... a neighbor, who is a firefighter by trade and had a few of those home test kits, tossed one over the fence for me. The bar lit up dark before the indicator strip even made it that far down the length of the thing. And it was menacing black bar, too - like the device not only was excited for the opportunity to let me know I had it, it delivered the news with an bold exclamation point.... But like I intimated, I was pretty sure I had it - it was more perfunctory. Three or so days later the symptoms were gone. I wanted to rejoin my lifestyle of daily workouts. I ran 4.5 mi.. usually I do 6, but since I had taken the week off ( first time in 7 years I had gone that long) and I am ... of the age, shall we say, where I my ballz only give so much restorative hormone therapy back to the system... I didn't want to hurt myself... The next morning, I had an odd stiffness/soreness manifesting in my knee, which I chalked up to that reasoning above. So I did the Elliptical machine. Then the next day...stationary bike. Time to run again... but the knee was getting more stiff, more sore. So opted to ride the bike again. Then it was too much. Knee locked. Pain ... pain ...and more of it. Pain, with a side of pain in the form of migrating down my caff ... into my ankle... then, in between the Tersi of the foot - man..it were as though a chisel was attempting to pry them apart. Sleep? nope. I think I ate 52 Advil spanning the next 6 days where once again I was k'ode and sidelined. By D10 I was out of the immobilizer and walking again, though with some lingering discomfort. I could not bend my knee backward more than 90 deg. The whole adventure was pain and a seizing stiffness in every sense of stoppage. Turns out... Omicron has a nasty joint residency in a lot of people - as being reported. The girl that I caught it from, also said that her elbows took a time out for a week. It's like you get a mild head cold, ...and then later on, you go through some sort of joint attack. It feels like Gout, or Rheumatoid in nature.. but either way, it was crippling. I am fine now. Mobility of the knee is completely restored. In fact, I just ran 5 1/2 miles yesterday with more of hamstring thing - separate matter. Just getting old... but be on the look out for some sort of inflammatory flair up...

That's the problem with this low amplitude +PNAP flow structure... It's NW-W orientation in the longer term systemic mean, means ... dry continental flow. Our S Atl Seaboard and or Gulf origin theta-e ..circulating around cyclic WAR flexing ...delivers us convective rains. But this circulation manifold that is unrelenting has thus far shut most of that tap off. If the +PNAP would go ahead and really just go bonkers, it would dip enough to fully cancel summer and start spinning up coastals... but since that's never gonna happen, all it does is stop WV sourcing. And I'm not conceding to any drought. We have plenty of deep strata geologic hydro in the area. We could bone out the rest of the way and really turn all lawns tinder beige, and we'd still correct it all with an early October seasonal pre-lapse Nor'easter...

89/? dew points don't feel terrible. It just feels very warm, but the windiness is offsetting and actually if one isn't dumb enough to run in black shirts in the sun, it's not terrible outside. Looking around at NWS... 57 to 63 DPs... But these home stations are all selling 68 to 70 - typical bias there. Not sure what it really is but since it doesn't feel oppressive, that kinda bush-argues for NWS. I'd characterize the hour as just a warm summer day - something about this summer is emerging reasons not to feel or even be all that hot. weird. My attitude on the day may change by 5 pm but just for now, it's unremarkable

Meh ...seen that layout a hundred times enough over the years to know that's a-right-turning-convective-complexes-sending-out-anvil-rains-that-barely-wet-streets-but-seem-to-be-remarkably-adept-at-enticing-mosquito-bites, failure

Yeah... but the climo sites all but reflect 'N/S' bias measures for the month, because they are less than .5 + or - So it has not actually been worthy of the 'love this 90s' sentiment if based upon that metric ... Subjectively? you'll find that no one lucid within the consideration believes otherwise. Now, it may just be semantics but I suspect you choose your words that way, deliberately. Just sayn' Look, I don't care - you can be a jive ass turkey and spin your intent as somethin' else, all you want. Typically I don't pay attention to the antics and just like to see substance that is more coherently unbiased. That said, I was trying also be humorously droll in that - which was vroom! right over the heads I guess...

That's hot - sure..I've said so countless times, explicit and implicitly ... You said, "Love this hot summer wx! " You said that - "this" is 77 F right now. Sorry if logic interferes with your narrative but I'm just responding to what came from you

I'm a little suspect of it all... It'll probably be 94.7 fine ..but, when that happens with the preset holding onto the previous air mass by luck of nocturnal timing, sometimes in the past we end up with morning ceiling issues due to make-shit warm advection riding over. The models don't really "create" those kind of permutations so well. Might seem like a bit of a reach, but if we end up more partly sunny haunting edges off the high, I've seen that sort of thing in the past. We need to sacrifice the day...then at night stays elevated. Then, have that boundary on Saturday come in at 8 pm ... that's your sack-sticker day.

Ha... You know, I actually think you're an okay person. We need guys/girls like you around to offset the coherent winter biased group this bastion of Internet bus-stoppers loiters on with in din and song. Lol - But please, for the love of god, stop. When the numbers do not back the sentiment, it loses any presumptive value. It's sort of worse than unappealing. It looks dumber. I mean, you kinda just get ignored after awhile. If one wants to be the best subversive troll they can be, the BEST way to do it is to strategize like Sheev Palpatine (Darth Sidious) did in that earlier Star Wars saga .... He inured himself to the Jedi order first, spanning those earlier ...hard-to-watch ridiculous horse character movies... Then, when the order's guard was inCREdibly too stupid to see it coming considering their Jedi foresight ... he executed the brilliantly titled operation 66 (because I guess "666" was too on the nose) So yeah...the theme had logic problems and ruined those earlier movies that wasted some state of the art CGI. Point being ... your wearing your carpet out there by statements that aren't selectively choosing for the right time to exact the most attack value... LOL

I don't actually care to experience heat, locally... Just for the record. Patience grinds at 93/73 if that lastS more than a couple days...etc. I'm just noting idiosyncrasies both subtle and/or gross, trends in the modeling vs and/or in support of verification tendencies. That, and as I have admitted in the past, I do carry a fascination for 'big heat synoptics' but... you know, that's fine. It's no hypocrisy. No nuclear physicist wants to spend time inside the actual tokamak reactor core - they want to observe it for the wonder of extremes. It's like that. I think it is interesting that the summer has evolved ...or 'de'-evolved, into a kind of a winter configuration. Yet, while AT summer-time heights - or even higher, actually. Recent ridge projection have heights nearing 605 DM in these nodes that pulse diurnally out there. I put up the annotation yesterday but it's apropos .. this is highly unusual. This may seem sort of innocuous or in-germane but that is the 594 contour with 50+ knot jet winds blowing along it in a trough ( which means positive vorticity) ... heights that normally are at the cores of ridge nodes over f'um India! Separate discussion.. it's pretty fantastic. I remember back in the 1980s I developed a pretty coherent impression of summertime ridges - 588 was the metric. Now... ? 594 seems to be the normal ridgy heat balloon depth ..with these smatterings of 600+ Venetian bombs on the charts. That's a another charm of CC...but whatever.

"real" climate happens in the relativity of the numbers though... And this unrelenting +PNAP ( not "PNA" ... I mean, 'amplified version of the Perennial North American Pattern') basal state, ...in the relative sense, gets balanced by no winter -

Oh yeah. I remember that upside-down scrotum monster

Man ...the models just keep doing this. Suggestions that heat will build east across the continent gains a little traction across two or three model cycles than like last night, ... gone. Returns right to the back-packing the heat/ridging west and we're the coldest place in the NH, relatively. We're turning the page into July and it's like that incalcitrant kid that finally shows signs of growing up ... finally! I mean, now that he/she's 24 years old and has missed the college years, you're hoping it's just a late bloomer thing.. But, sadly you get that call at 4 a.m. They need bail. Might be time to start admitting your kid's just slated to be a dysfunctional under-achiever in life.