Typhoon Tip

I think it's possible this smears out into another event similar to what happened today. Which... don't get me wrong. I'm not ungrateful ... it's wintry out there for a change. 4" of sand and snow and a blue tinted dusk at 24 F is a seldom scenery this p.o.s. winter.. we have to "de" magnify for one. All systems at D5 are bigger than the are in the near term. That's A. B, no N/stream to phase... C, the whole f'n thing is trying to move into a confluence up and over a -PNA warm anomaly in the S squeezed between cold in Canada = raging boner velocities... It's really amazing these models have that much QPF and holding onto this thing with so much neg head interference crap. But it is what it is... I'll go along with the game if it's gonna happen. But I wouldn't be shocked if we see this start pancaking on us...

Am I gonna go look at this thing and find that it's weaker than the 12z again... ?

Looks weaker to me... not that anyone asked or cares to read that observation... but hey, ICON? who cares The output of this is bizarre in the guidance to me, overall. It does not look like a snowing QPF output we typically see associated with a coastal storm. It's really like today's event - i.e., much more like an overrunning/WAA ordeal. I'm thinking that's because the first half or so of this is in fact a warm advection IB related...but then a wave formulates along the warm boundary ...where ever it does, and then it takes over. It's a question whether we get an ending sort of comma head blossoming for an exit game. The whole of thing lasts awhile, as that WAA sequence transitions into the latter sense...

The NAO is a fickle index, too. It's like the last remaining frontier for discovery in how the f to figure what the f it's doing next. The best laid plans and most brilliant crafted insights are at times sorely just like ...ignored LOL, and some other shit happens. The reason for this - I know you didn't ask for this ... I'm just sayn' - is because the NAO happens by way of the "non -linear wave function" down stream of the Pacific N/A pattern. What that means is simpler than it sounds. One may typically think A--> B--> C--> as the cause and effect chain of events. And they are right, for linear wave function relationships. NON linear is when A--> B has an effect on D ... but not C in between. A similar/analog to help visualize this is in the open sea: rogue wave phenomenon. A sea surface with an apparent orderly 20' swell may suddenly lurch up a 70' monster wave, and the surrounding 20' wave's are reduced in height temporarily while the energy of the monster exhausts. Crude model.. Most of what happens in the atmosphere is both linear and non-linear wave mechanics happening simultaneously in perpetuity... and they are emergent properties out in time, too - which means fractals... and good luck. This is why NAOs demonstrate the stochastic behavior they do... More so than other indexes, that one has a greater non-linearity just by circumstance of where the domain is situated down stream of all that's great and wonderful about our planetary atmospheric system. Having said all this... It's not impossible that its exertion next week is not handled as well as it looks in the guidance from still 5 days away.

If nothing else, it's a steady diet of aspects to look at - until very recently, that's been a remarkable challenge, ...unrelenting ennui this winter.

No where near thread worthy ... yet, but the 4th looms. The ICON is setting up a charming scenario in the E, fwinotw.... that model ends at 180 so we don't get to see... ( probably a good thing! lol -) That period still nested in a general index signal, so it has the advantage both that, and having an object on maps.

Yeah ...I spoke of this in an earlier post, wrt model comparison... (Will and I also mentioned yesterday ) The previous Euro run was doing just that - reiterating. It was slowing the field out ahead of the lead impulse, such that the Dakota's S/W was then forced to catch up... But one additional aspect was that also in the previous Euro run it carried a bit more transient ridge expression through the west, too, which encourage the Dakota's S/W to dive more. Both those two facets appear to have backed away since, however. - at least from what I'm observing ... I'm actually beginning to wonder if this is just heading toward something similar to what we are encountering now... It just smears out and ends up an active baroclinic field along the periphery/interface between the southern height wall and the cold Canadian source.

I must live along their standard flight path because they come by in Mig formation all months of the year.

06z GEFs was an important improvement comparing the 00z prior - It's more ominous and cleaner committed to a 2ndary, with several members in the mid 980s SE of ACK. One errant hopeful is 972 near P-town. You know ...should we get a consistent consensus here, we can start considering other interesting aspects ( which we will anyway, who am I kidding LOL ) ... But, the antecedent air mass being cold as Will's pointed out, and high situated N-NE of Maine ..stalled and pinned by -NAO, OES may kick off. It looks like a straight W fetch, but doing so with air that has not actually sat over the water so long that it's been hugely moderated. Also, this whole approach and pivot takes time, so the event finds a way of imposing a longer duration that way. Just some early thoughts on how to get greedy hahaha.. seriously tho

I love this affect out there right now... 23 F with just enough wind increase in the last hour that there's 'powdered sugar' lifting off the edges of the eaves. Looking at the temp trends from the various home sites around town, it appears there's been two accelerations: one occurred just post midnight, with an abrupt fall from 31 ... 32 ...to about 28 ... then it slowly shed decimals until 6am when another four fell off. It puts one in the mood to experience more of it... Luckily we have something to track early next week.

Yeah, they have vastly different solution envelopes for the 3/4th. They do have one trait in common: both a Lakes cutter, and a 'needle thread' bottle rocket coastal with no high pressure over Ontario/Quebec ... are both absent of -NAO help. Interesting.. haven't looked at the index field or numerics - but ...we keep in mind, these runs really have limited value above a single member in any ensemble cluster at this sort of time range. ..Maybe a little. The GGEM ...agreed, that looks more -NAO influenced. There's also a 'little critter' around the 2nd of March. I'll tell ya...we ought not neglect to keep and eye on that. I've seen these types of tortured determinism patterns before, and sometimes as the models tussle over the 28th and 4th ... the "one in the middle" ends up performing better than anyone thought it would. Not saying that is the case...but experienced model users know that that these tools can place too much or too little emphasis on any one wave in a series. All these are over the Pacific. The 28th is in fact currently an 'outside slider' off the California coast. The exit region of those jet mechanics are leading people to think it's onshore, but the ballast of what wind momentum matters to the 28th has to come aboard/round the trough axis as it tunnels onshore as a quasi closed low around 60 hours - so there's plenty of complexity there..

Pretty spot on ... (I'm catching up ) ... I had this more or less in mind when I started the failed thread, kept the expectation to upper moderate. The Euro was alone in doing that...

Yup, the GFS, GGEM and ICON ( since others seem to be using it...) all cut back some 15 or so % in the 00z. I wrote up a thread for this event, not realizing this one was created - I kept the prospect to "moderate/borderline major" ..which this series seems to gather around, and I'm sticking with it. For now. Firstly the Euro's eye-candy on the 12z was precarious because it was quite dependent on a bit of N/stream infusion, at the time ...out around D5. The -NAO was slowing the east propagation of the main disturbance, and that was allowing a Dakota S/W to catch up and partially infuse. It was really the only guidance source I could find doing that. Could still happen... but seeing it back off and fail continuity doesn't lend to thinking that sort of scenario will play in reality. The other models not having it...seem to coalesce into a consensus rather quickly during the day for an upper moderate event ... but it seems that a weaker total relay off the Pacific is correction - perhaps we are seeing a bit of "magnification" correction too. Incidentally, a latter one in the series out around the 3/4th now airs as more potency in these runs. The Euro Lakes cutters that... So much for the NAO in that model, huh... The GGEM and GFS try again toward more coastal commitment, but they don't seem very -NAO ish either, because there solutions are pretty fast. Not sure what's going on with that index overnight out in that time range.

ICE BR VIS 1 MI 3" 25

These early 0Z are modestly weaker overall.

S 1.5” 32

S 1/2” 32

32 S-

George I think you lost a lot of readers when you entered ending blizzard hyperbole to your opening statement… Fact of the matter is an objective measured analytic approach to this does not require the mention of the word blizzard, nor comparisons to history at this time and there really isn’t that much suggestion a very strong winds either by the way - not based on that PGF layout

Sorry I didn’t realize that there was already a thread running for this.

Time to raise awareness... at least than a week's notice This is possible event is rapidly gaining ensemble support, while deterministic version appear to also be formulating a consensus for classic Miller-B cyclone evolution. These are the GFS (18z recent), the GGEM 12z, and the Euro also 12z... c/o Tropical Tidbits. The Euro doesn't carry ptype.... but it's all snow in this image almost down to the shores of the south coast of SNE. These are on the 28th... and don't show the potential quite as far as it can go as a rapid deepening storm type - keeping in mind, we are just formulating consensus. These next several model cycles will be interesting to say the least. Basic synopsis: Primary low climbs toward S. Ontario/St L. Seaway...but runs into a retrograde/transitive exertion from an intensifying negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The mid and upper air charts as that is occurring then abandon that primary circulation, as the S/W(s) mechanics are forced to dive toward the Del Marva to NYC latitude along the EC - where the canonical explosive baroclinicity resides with the cold continent air ( enhanced by antecedent cold high pressure stalling N. of Maine, also a manifestation of the -NAO/confluence) is proximal to the Atlantic Ocean This changing hemispheric circulation mode is as follows, .. Thus, this is an "index-scale" driven event, one where well-timed disturbance gets "caught" in the instability/restoring along the inflection of that diving curve you see above. We typically find that bigger events are tied so such changes, and often do gather into consensus rather early across guidance pantheon. The reason for that is because the physics of such large, titanic forces have a lot of momentum once they begin to "move", and are thus less susceptible to "noisy" perturbation, that can and do often cause the typical deterministic headaches we deal with with more sub-index events ...that that seldom survive 7 days of model permutation...etc. Aspects to watch for: the amount of phasing with trailing S/W mechanics is in question. The Euro has more of that, such that it's sfc result is deeper and more violent implicated along eastern New England. However, all three suggest a solid moderate/borderline major snow amount, without the monster solution of the Euro. I have seen some snow charts for the Euro model that are ...quite obscene but I'll leave those to y'all to entertain this thread with some of that... What is also not present here is the PNAP pattern. The Euro has more of a transient +PNAP structure ejected through the west then does the GFS and GGEM. That may be why-for it features more phasing with trailing mechanics. Though this event is inside of D6, it is still not quite in the the better model performance range. It's damn close! It is possible that the these other guidance may come around, or...the Euro may go toward less. Also, this event may slow down it's departure in future runs - but that's very speculatively based upon uncertainty as to how the downstream flow continues to "back exert" and slow down the 'atmospheric traffic' - so to speak.

it's an advantage at index scaling, ...word

Leave amts out of it entirely... adjectives like minor, moderate and major are plenty at this range

okay, I thought you meant that for SNE

Whaat - I gotta see a graphic for that. 2 feet at this range? - that may be a first