Typhoon Tip

I guess... compromise? Longer read for anyone interested: A glaring difference between these runs is the handling of several synoptic metrics over eastern Ontario thru Quebec from late Sunday through mid week. The GFS ends up with a 1026 mb polar high... replete with pooling the size of Texas of DPs in the mid to upper 30s N of Maine by Tuesday morning... The Euro does not have nearly that much sfc pressure, nor the pooling - DPs around 50 in that same area. So naturally... if the GFS is going to succeed in a 1024+ mb polar high passing through that region ( the Euro does not have) it is not only going to 925 mb a CAD jet into the area, it is going to also pull from that large region of much drier DPs and drill that into an erstwhile raining/convective debris over eastern NH/ME...and there we go. It's like the GFS is a giant A.C. processor. It's also odd how the GFS holds the hydrostats so lofty while mixing the BL down to autumnal normals by 18z Tuesday per that 06z run... It's either an exceptionally ( albeit harmless) rare result, or something's amiss The GFS is suspect to me because it is still deeply within the vegetating boreal summer landscape, below the taiga belt. Whatever processes the GFS thinks will set all that up, its not clear it is enough/how it offsets that continent/evapotran factor, enough to manifest that much dry lower troposphere over Quebec. Interesting test. This could not be more black and white between those two guidance sources.

That's a bit of an usual modeling scenario ...to have it < 96 hours out, and the operational Euro and GFS vary by 30+ F over S NH a rare circumstance.

Not to piss on anyone's parade but the "pacific warm pool," as it is become known in recent climate papers, is a largely anthropogenic feedback - attribution science revealing it is not be possible without an AGW factor. That - to me ... - isn't really the same thing as an otherwise "unique" SS stressing/distribution lending to a PDO phase state, as much as it really more like a faux +PDO. In other words, it isn't abundantly clear whether its presence really motivate the circulation mode, as opposed to it emerging because of the latter - in that order. Having said that... theoretically, a warm pool wobbling around S of the Aleut... may seem intuitive to cumulatively drive higher heights down stream, so perhaps that is a "harmonic" sort of feedback -

Yeah...was just gonna say - that product seldom seems to vary appreciably, year to year. Snowy and cold is our leitmotif - yet all I remember is 4 or perhaps 5 consecutive uninspired pieces of shit years that were not particularly cold or snowy. They're doing okay in the SW though - I guess not...

Euro has an MDR cyclone at the end of this run... ( c'mon guys - I'm tryin' to poke the hornet's nest here)

Outflow ?

The ultimate Bahama Blue pattern... Pretty please, with sugar on top... Cat 5 inject that NE of Nassau

You can hear that sucker from here..

course...the morning miasma of debris and alto gunk isn't helping... Wiz and I were talking about this factor the other day. WPC analyzed what's left the boundary as a vaguely identifiable trough from roughly d.e.m. to NJ... with said gunk straddling either side. Sun is tending to normalize the mid troposphere, as evidenced by the recent looping - so more getting through. Sites around the region are running about 2 to 3 F behind yesterday's temp, by hour, but are also 3-5 more rich in DP. It may be better than the gripe above if we broach the convective temps. They also analyze a better newer boundary along the St L seaway... but that's not slated to come quickly SE

So much for earlier detonation and slow moving flooders, huh? I don't think this - so far ...we'll see how things go over the next couple of hours - is having to do with dry beget dry and all that. I think it has more to do with these guidance holding onto the total kinematic identity of the fronts and governing mechanics too long. This on Sat and obs smacks as almost no front at all... and with it paralleling the flow, it's hard moreover to even use that as triggers. Hghts are not falling so lapse rates suck ..yet again. It's not a dry feed back thing. It's a models feeding us bullshit thing. But I'm in a bad mood so hopefully we whacked anyway to rub that in some more

Course..I grew up in the modeling of the 1980s and 1990s... With advances in the general tech arena the models may be better - so to speak... - in placing those. I mean it used to be that if the models saw one at all dangling near PSM on a D4 chart ... it invariably was through LGA by the time it verified. Full disclosure, I've at times noticed the opposite is true sometimes now, where the models are too agressive with them. Definitely that is true with the GFS. I'm just not ready to comfortably depend on that.

From what I'm seeing utilizing the sfc PP the boundary was actually farther SW per the 00z run than 06z or this one. Seems to be ticking back NE... It's weird though, because even though that may be true, this run looks more aggressive because of gradient between D.E.M. and NE Mass... It's going NE with a BD that has more weigh behind it.. interesting. My thing with BDs is that if there is one anywhere on a planet around a random star in the Andromeda Galaxy ... it ends up pinned to Atlanta Georgia despite all modeling peregrinations that argued for a warmer result... Sarcasm dully noted -

Well... if one is serious about training, has spotters and all, or it is a calculated risk to 'push' oneself - which you gotta do - some if that's gotta happen. The stuff in these memes though -

that also relates to my gripe - I feel/observe...- re the GFS having a bias to extend the horizontal coordinates. The front should not be there in the first place - or ...should be further N... But the GFS extending all the kinematics too far downstream, and ends up "needing" to generate these leading boundaries and that starts the whole thing.

Oh I've seen plenty since the "blah blah blah? Priceless!" days... Then Insta"crap" and other pap on tap became too easy and now that kind of thing is common. I've seen squatters pass out while 400 lbs straddle their shoulders bending the bar, too. Some of them are legit funny though...like the "Fail" memes with these idiots that apparently are so strong that "hey y'all look at me! I can pick tings up and pud dem down," but apparently missed out on the inherent fundamentals of gravity and the other laws of common everyday physics... end up narily escaping bodily harm. Gym failure memes abound for all! From vomit to explosive projective ass ejecta, to the softer side of 290 lbs of failed weight pinning a bench "pressure" in sleeper hold like a Roman Greco Olympian ... to someone turning up a tread mill to fast and rocking off the end after doing a face plant... you name it - Humans living inside the industrial bubble ... they are remarkably resilient in the face of what looks on the surface really should be a lot more Darwin Awards than are actually being handed out. I'm in the gym almost every day in the winter, and half in summers and I've witnessed a lot of just weird people.

If you care to read...probably not ( don't blame you - ), it isn't modeled as a BD by 00z last night. - the problem is, if one is going to do substantive analysis and expose the general population to what is really happening, these paragraphs have to be written. But as an aside, we have a contingency of user/engagement in here, that is more purely 'social-media' motivated and don't care so much for either the necessary vernacular/nomenclature, and/or are just not interested in adjectives and verbs... I think these individuals would make excellent drones in the Star Trekkian "Borg" civilization, because everything is binary served up at nano time with no actual obligation to learning anything gets in the way of instant gratification.. Anyway, the BD was more an artifact of the previous 2 or 3 cycles.

Oh..okay - lol.. Just wrote War And Peace describing why we should sell that - but yeah... your version 'bout covered it -

Which run were you looking at - I'm asking 'cause I just did a pocket 'n' pen-protector analysis of the last 4 or 5 cycles of both the Euro and GFS. It seems there are actually two correction aspects going on The first nerdy tedium is that the GFS as of 00z and continuing into the 06z, actually backed off the BD it had pushed to about a EEN-ORH axis, per the earlier 12z run. That earlier run was attempting to end the heat wave from the NE, while pinching it shut from the NW - i.e., both directions. The GFS has a particular fondness for running out and setting up means to end warmth - I might add. ( have a funny private conspiracy that there is an anti CC mole modeler trying to hide it lol -) The 2nd nerdy tedium thereafter is that compared to the Euro ( which also never had a BD for Monday -), even though BD structure is gone by the 06z solutions... it's vastly sped up the entire baroclinic suppression into and ending the ridge influence entirely, by 18z Monday. Granted, "New England" is a large area..it's actually got PF in a cold E strata shrouded summit look by dawn... It's not really a BD by then in the 00z/06z runs... But either way... it ends up vastly cooler by Tuesday. It all looks dubious to me frankly. The baroclinic wall and weak lows and training rains and all that...they parallel the deep layer non-hydrostats, so it's unclear to me how it bodily displaces that entire axis some 300 miles SE of the 12z position .. It just has a bias, albeit subtle, to stretch all horizontals ... Frontal slopes are more oblique and cut too far under ridges - to which a BD would certainly take advantage of that. It also just moves fronts too fast through the flow anyway... owing probably because it also moves S/W too quickly. If you took any D7 chart in winter, and compared it to the Euro, you'll noticed that the heights on the polarward side of the jets are 3 to 6 dm lower in the GFS... That speeds up the flow, necessarily comparing the two...not by a lot, but it doesn't take much in the time-based integral to end up effecting wave mechanics in terms of time and space. These issues begin to first manifest ...oh so delicately, around the 72 to 96 hour time frame. This stuff isn't "every time" or very glaring ...but in a situation like next week .. we're talking about the difference between a saturated cool misty slow moving backside frontal environment, versus one that is offering you guys training correction rains, and us more heat. I'm interested in how that that resolves... because my life has so much profound meaning of course...

They couldn’t verify 99 at BOS. LWM/MHT/BED Musta been a decimal 99er. Lol

actually, that's been on the last several cycle... hm

12z GFS with an impressive BD on Monday... 96-99 NE CT and 72 at BED ... Doesn't last though. Tuesday it's 101 again.

Seems to me as much as we cannot seem to rid the continent of that sagging plaguing trough over SE Canada, we are also consummately having to shallow it out - it's like the models know it is there, but over deepen it beyond D5's. I've noticed the operational Euro has been yo-yoing the amount of sag along the 80W, beyond the break down on Wed...and since the EPS is a largely non-dispersive ens mean it doesn't surprise me that it followed suit on on the 12z cycle. I just wonder if both end up shallowing some again. I mean it's gonna relax - we're not doing 93 to 99 every day ...but, how much -

Otherwise it looks like a handful of 99's tied for the trophy -

BED just kissed 99 if Meso-W isn't rounding weird -