Typhoon Tip

Not sure about all those metaphors but ..yeah...it did just that for one run, the 18z yesterday ( GFS)... Since, 00z and 06z went quickly back to the easy scour out bully primary look. Not sure it can't return but it's fleeting as chances go, unfortunately. ...may still front side snow for a couple of hours, even though, but that 18z offered an interesting rendition that locked/stranded a cold slab in the interior from N CT NE

mm ... roughly along a line from Portsmouth NH to Springfield VT and N are < 25 F, with DPs in the upper teens and lower 20s. That's a bit below 'marginality' - that has me wondering actually. Particularly as this weak low along the front is passing roughly 75 W longitude, and that modestly denser low level air may get tapped and tucked. You're right in the general sense that it is marginal everywhere below that approximate latitude above, but that's also nearby and could affect phase one of this QPF "if" ageo were to even 10kts. I wouldn't bother mentioning if that cold BL lurking/hanging over top wasn't there... This is a pretty classic "cold capping" scenario in that area as they are quickly/densely overcasting as of dawn with zip gradient for mixing.

So normally one should expect half what those snow products show. 3-6”?

Trend ended from what I’m seeing. Or slowed. Best hope is to have the low level cold sort of missed again… Im not a big fan of the old backlash idea for the end game … too many painful memories growing up with that con lol.

I don't think we're done correcting the BL cold though. By the way, the GFS' mid week shift on the 18z is almost pants shitting... That's a major impact like out near the Quabbin and along Rt 2 ...with 6" thump followed by IP/ice 2010 December style.

Pretty impressive detailing too - You can see a vicious tuck pulse correction in the 2-meter. Flashes 33's to 27's between the Pike and Rt 2 having never flipped the ORH Hills to rain. That's a significant profile correction for the mid week system.

OH it's no question the day's models have heard your bitchin' and are doing their best. I just don't know if it's highly believable. I don't know ...I'm not un-confident .. heh. The thing is, these needle threaders can wiggle a small amount and have a big impact on gradation of ptypes and amounts therein. That's A The second thing, this is legit trending colder in the low levels... It appears the models were too warm in the BL across and as we are nearing this thing, there's some feedback coming from that correction. So as the system is flattening in the flow, we are getting a superposition of that over top a BL that's correcting. It's not correcting hugely. ...yet. So let's not get carried away. But it's a marginal system thermally, so it sensy to perturbations. The last several cycles of entire GEF cluster, including the operational...are actually tracking the low along a like-able trajectory for snow climo.. .But it's been raining clear back to NW CT to the Manadnocks. ...correcting the BL colder makes that interesting. Ice and IP are in the discussion, too. Lastly, the lagging jet dynamics forcing a new plume of moderate snow burst has been slowly emerging as an end game changer - perhaps.

Wow, that's a huge change in Quebec +PP orientation and frontside cold ahead of the 25/26 system in this 18z GFS! That looks like a classic SWFE 6"er ... crusted over W of 495. actually looks like 5 or 6" then a 1/2 of sleet and 1/4 of icing over top in interior SNE

In a quasi analogous way it's similar to this last system we just went through...with a lead sort of burst of isentropic lift rain and snow where-is lucky...then a ball of instability snow burst comes through after the fact. interesting - That also snows pretty darn hard for 3 or so hours in NYC-HFD corridor. That oughta make Kevina happy

well that 12z run was toss-able though. I thought anyway. I've been barking about that model having NW bias tendencies for years and that run was incarnate for me.

mm kinda like this HRRR model is telling us to up and shift the entire 'storm' 75 mi or more S of the previous consensus. Take those winter storm watches and move them wholesale ? ooh, NWS can't wait to do that! LOL

Hmm I might be making this up but ...seems to me we've been repeating a theme where about 30 or so hours before some event, the guidance overall make a snap dash attempt at colder solutions. Then, at 18 hours out, hint back the other way, only to go violently so when it's 6 to 12 hours before go time. Not sure if that cinema description is true, however... I feel like I've been to this rodeo this season and we don't have much to show for it. Ha

I'm nosing into this conversation, I know... my experience with this particular BL evolution appeal the Euro is selling this morning, BL warmth is quite fragile with steady fall rates through an 850 mb temperature crash, which that is. Between 54 and 60 hours, it goes from -.5 over FIT to -5 C, with a weakly bounded 850 mb pressure contour closing off over Scott's slowly receding hair line. I mean...what we're looking at that is the anatomy of a marginal event, whence the flop direction is on the cold side. If it's 34F at where cat paws go over to soaked cotton balls, they're 32.1 F in about 15 minutes of that happening when the column's imploding the way that run shows that. Probably finishes at 30- F along Rt 2

Know what's interesting I didn't know this thread existed first of all - I would have posted those thoughts here. Not that anyways needs to care, ha But, I was elaborating how the models have been inching SE with the rain/snow axis, as this system has both been nearing in time, but also tending to weaken and flatten out.. (by weaken ..I don't mean losing identity altogether, I just mean lessening warm thrust ending up W..etc). Anyway, it seems this run of the Euro stopped inching and took a leap of faith. I kind of hate this when this happens... This is sort of where this wants to go, so the Euro shows us that solution - but we cannot allow ourselves confidence enough to toss the others in lieu of this.

Yeah and I'm not sure what it'll mean. I'm not just trying to sow optimism here. It's opening the door to other possibilities, other than a pig primary with coughing secondary ... I also think we're ( no you and me per se but the royal 'we're' ) looking for idealized structures that aren't going to happen this year - to be blunt. Maybe ... not wrt these critters this week, anyway. Still, I think we can "get lucky" on both... How? Monday's event is shaving deg F, as well as inching the rain snow line SE in recent runs. I'd almost argue that we could be icing after a brief snow shot ...particularly when the low is nearing the islands and tucking kicks in - 'just enough'. Not a forecast - just how to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. Then if the parent/ lead S/W becomes less dominant like your saying...we'll see for the next. I understand that down near y'all in SE coast, we're f'ed either way. Frankly, until the arctic air really makes it's present felt/physically exerting, not sure anyone along the coastal plain is going to be particularly UNf'ed until that happens. Last 3 cycles of the GFS has a little critter look along the leading powerful arctic p-wave coming through in a week. Everyone may WINDEX 1.5 to 3" or so out of that....

So I mentioned this to Will in a tl/dr op ed a couple hours ago... This 25 ( I guess it is no longer the "26th" ?) event is trying to devolve in the guidance. They've all been weakening, albeit slowly, the system's cyclonic scaffolding as this has relayed into mid range. The 12z GFS is now just 1000 mb closed contour with the primary over NW PA, with 999 mb secondary that is also bumped slightly E of the prior model cycle positions, centered over the NY Bite at 12z Thur. That's all code for continuing to turn this away from a strong cyclonic total evolution.. .but toward what? I'm wondering if this continues to devolve to more of something like Monday's event... flatter wave(s) with overrunning. It's almost down to just being an WAA thrust already. If the primary continues to weaken in the outlook, eventually it'll all just collapse SE en masse. We'll see -

'Throw in the towel' ... Not trying to be condescending or elitist, but I prefer not to venture into such 'emotive' responses to this shit? That likens to a 5 year-old ... flopping in the check-out aisle ... having a tantrum because mom won't let 'er have that piece of shiny candy - that's deliberately there at eye level for the pant-leg grabbing, spoiled little square-mouthed enrage brat. ..But I digress.. I guess there some 'compartmentilization' that goes on with this engagement - within me, anyway. I can have my druthers and disappointments, and my druthers and successes... but I still will approach with the objective analytic intention. I am human, though - but you're asking me a question that sort of delves into my personality a bit. Just trying to be honest... So anyway, there are a couple of points I'd make going forward. 1 ... both education, ranging to existential life, teaches us that it is foolish to 'throw in towels' until ... Easter really. That said, it depends on what one's hoping to experience. If it is heavy stacked snow pack? .... that can't really happen after ~ March 1 do to the obvious. But if one is just hoping for the 'rush' at a great looking series of model runs and the drama build-up of big events... ? That's open season until May. You'll just have to be aware that the return rate is dropping over time. 2 ... Right now the numerical teleconnectors deny everything in #1 ... sorry. I don't make the rules or the correlations - they are what they are. But this panel Would not be encouraging in the climate realm of 30 years ago. It would signify that this pattern change is not long for the world. In 2023, after the last 10 years have sported three separate Februaries that hosted temperatures in the mid 70s, and even an unthinkable 80 F ...?? That panel of teleconnector numerics/graphical presentations should not set very well to any objective consumer. The AO above has a lot of spread. Even though the mean curve is positive, ...enough members are slumped to suggest the confidence chi isn't hugely large there. But every NAO and PNA member is warm in the right panels - and those are perhaps the more important indicators for our latitude. Combing the aspects of #2 above with this telelon spread is pretty much the opposite of an inspiring look for over the longer duration. If one were to say that this winter is "bottoming out" over the next 10 days in particular, after which a some sort of (dying Nina + CC )/2 takes us back to one of those springs like 2009 ...you'd have a strong case.

what - not sure I understand this question?

You know...at 'local hemispheric scale' ...there's been plenty of cold air this year. Available to systems as they are passing through? That's been the problem - That comes down to in situ mechanics/synoptic variance. That said, ( just pointed this out) the latter mid and extended range is brutally cold across the Canadian shield.. We don't need deliverance from Siberia in either sense.

Euro was teasing in the 00z release, too ... but at finite scales. Heh, where only the kind of digging of the desperately damned would reveal. But the Monday system's rain snow line is like 23.4 miles SE of previous runs... It's basically Canon CT to MHT NH... anywhere above that line net gains from that. Unfortunately... anywhere SE is cat pawing madness, net losing what they don't have, where it must feel like god's been raising the dead just to tax them some more. Then the 26th ...has the better front-side air mass like we've been noting, and holds just enough to net gain Rt 2.. Like it snows with gradually diminishing visibility, then right about the moment it crosses the 2 or even 3"/hr rate, pings and pillows take over then it's light rain... BUT, the moral victory is that this system is moving quite fast, so just about the time all that transition happens ( slower to take place from S-N of course... ur right, CNE does well on the 26th), the max uvm passes off and it's misting. That's what that looks like in the 00z evolution to me. Pike might even start as snow and pingers... in fact I think the pretty coloring book versions of the QPF shows that - but transitions to fast to net+ .. One other thing.... these events have been ( as I suspected ...) deamplifying as they've relayed from the outer mid range into mid ...etc. Monday's wave is in fact barely below 1000 mb leaving Cape May NJ shores, where it was once a d-drippin' 978 or whatever that was last earlier in the week. But this is probably why the rain snow line ( in the Euro for ex) is situating the way it did...it's sort of a swap - a flatter system doesn't overwhelm a tenuous polar air mass so readily... They tend to ride along what thermal wall there is, albeit weak. But more so for the 26th, I'm noticing the 500 mb/ wholesale mid troposphere wave signature of the this latter event is in the process of morphing in the runs. It's possible the 26th begins to diverge from a cohesive cyclone model ...devolving into something else... The primary low in the Euro, is over BUF at 1am Thursday at a stunning depth of 998 mb for a reason.. Looks like the whole event is purely a WAA thrust -driven, and losing the cyclone presentation. We may may moral victory that event, just by virtue of it turning into something else entirely. We wouldn't have to suffer the indignity of being raised from the dead yet again on that one. By the way...not sure anyone is paying attention but Canada is loading up with some serious arctic syrup beyond about D7..8 in the GGEM/Euro. 574 closed hydrostat down to mid Ontario is no f'n joke! Pattern must've changed, huh -

00z NAM trying desperately to get to an isothermal scenario. Has 0C sfc to 800 mb over Logan at 60 hrs yet keeps that all rain. In the words of count Rugen, “That must be the worst thing I’ve ever heard - how marvelous “

4.5” here 10.5” in the season

It probably would start as snow everywhere or at least a mix with that antecedent air mass… But how long that lasts would be briefest at the coast and longer in the interior. I don’t think that’s going to Miller B saved the day …there’s just too much mechanics turning N too early inland. That said a residual secondary low that’s having trouble getting going might prolong some ice for awhile from the deep interior southern New England and points north - just an option …unless the deep layer trough en masse evolves further east then we’ll talk about more secondary commitment

I was talking about Monday... but, yeah... they're kinda twin events -

I'm not sure the track is as important with Monday ... there is a defined lack of cold air.. The track is already doable. In fact, the GEFs ensemble mean was tightly cluster along an ideal track, actually. RAIN sometimes there's just a lack of cold air. Next - That's what this looks like. I keep reading NWS and posts on social media, discussing the track like it is the main sensitivity to where the snow axis is... WRONG there some...sure. But if it's 37/34 at Orange Massachusetts and nothing hanging around in CNE to help out... it won't matter where the 'flatter solutions' track.