Typhoon Tip

These two guidance have flip (reversed) across the western hemisphere entirely from where they were 24 hours ago. Yesterday, the Euro was a warm ridge and the GFS was the bully N stream. Utterly, flipped. 12z GFS now carries a bulging heat dome/ridge after this next Wed, and the Euro looks well above 50% similar to those previous GFS runs. Either solution could prevail. .. I can see why they are tussling over it. The entire N arc of the Pacific circulation mode is entering an A/B phase due to the absorption of a "Merbok" into a two stream phase over the eastern limb of the WPO domain, ...sending a shock wave through the flow that ends up as a powerful jet moving SE through Canada in a week. That's the gist of this Euro, and the previous GFS ( again, now flipped themes). The models are taking turns with more than less proficiency in that phase and subsequent consequence down stream. Which... if there is going to be a hurricane to monitor - that's not really part of that above, but it could 'chancy' be in the right(wrong) place at the right(wrong) time...etc..etc... That's all this is - timing as far as the hurricane part of this.

Step one ... upgrade to Depression status - Presently looks really healthy on conventional sat channels...

Ah I don’t know if that phenomenon applies to the tropics…? ha. That’s more of a hemisphere planetary wave management issue, which is where and what hosts extratropical cyclones… Those kind of big events. The tropics remind me … especially at this range. It’s like the spray that comes out of a particle collision at Hadron And the metaphor kind of works for me because I suspect the handling the tropical interactive fusion with the westerlies is a lot more fundamental - sort of prior to the ongoing orchestration of atmospheric mechanics that are already in play when the models first detect them.

Uhhh no, it's east of the CT River Valley. E. LI over Worcester to Nashua to ET transistion over Montreal. It's actually a send in structural engineers for the Prudential Tower in the aftermath sort of track -

And there comes grapply CAA showers into the Lakes 3 days later, with flips to snow in the U.P. It seems every year we canvas a GFS painting at this range like that. I swear I saw a 15 contoured hornet sting E of the Del Marva last year around this time...and the year before, and the year before that. ugh

Having said that ... F! why oh why as tropical phenomenon enthusiasts ... must we be shown a "deterministic" solution, that ... really defies any formulaic convention to find a flaw in its design (about 100%), at range that is about 0% likely to verify? That's well above the 95th ...perhaps 98th percentile - you could fiddle with that some and still make out alright as a "responsible mentality" LOL ... you sickos ... j/k

ahhaha ..for some reason I had to lean forward laughing when I read that - all we are is bust in the winnnnnnnnnd. I think it is because of the next lyric, "saaaame ollllld sooonnnnng"

To many moving parts at a range that has never been consistent with moving parts - I mean, can it happen? duh But put it this way ...if it did, just like that, it would be utterly by accident and not because of the physical processing of the GFS run at 246 hours out - just tryin' to intervene on the d-drip addiction

yeah ...hence the, "lol"

yikes! lol

And during that entire 5 months span ... the world mean experiences 2 or 3 of those months as the warmest ever recorded, and the other 2 or 3 in 2nd or 3rd place, while we are enabled in our little denial bubble. no doubt.

Those who hail from either perspective on next week ... score a low grade in unbiased reading regarding that AFD missive. LOL wow

Nice shot of Autumn air Thursday into early Saturday …

There's an interesting internal "policy" storm and political upset on the radar over in Russia. List of Russian municipal deputies calling for Putin’s resignation grows to nearly 50, local official says From CNN's Uliana Pavlova Nearly 50 municipal deputies have now signed a petition demanding the resignation of President Vladimir Putin, 29 more than on Monday, according to one of those involved. ...Thing is, everything I've read about the last 30 years of history over behind those 'geodesic boundaries' ( whatever in the f they are, geesh) ...is that the higher echelon of the governing body is essentially formulated of a veritable "kakistrocracy" - it may be a bit strong to say that, but lacking a better word. Relative to the future ...and being on the "right side of history," that is more likely the case, however. Anyway, it's not clear how that power structure is really even capable of ceding control - certainly not in any context of failure. That would be a neat trick for a demagogue with some form of functional psychotic prominence disorder ... Good luck. It's gonna be a interesting autumn for Russia ... perhaps literally. Is there ...or perhaps "can there be," more apropos, any exit strategy in that psychosis?

Kind of a hybrid standard-BD... Probably one of those deals where the wind is NW for an hour behind the boundary, then here comes the non-analyzed (by WPC ..jerks) obvious wind shift careening in from the NE ... Either way, the high pressure does an end-around NE Maine so what's the difference I guess. Yeah I mentioned I was only going 70 or 80% Euro this morning in deference to climo. The GFS has made the biggest total synoptic modulation over the last 2..3 cycles in even seeing the warm dome farther E across the continent - I would hold back any notion that these 12z looks should have more confidence just because they look the same. Smells like a model peregrinated accidental agreement. Looks like that breaks down to me, prior to Wednesday though? - that afternoon would roast in that look ( relative to climate), with west wind out of a big continental heat dome going fully offshore.

Are there any secrets to getting over to Beverly from here ... instead of a 495 N to 3 S, to 95 N ?? I mean my recollection of those demographic conduits is that they fail to be conduits from 7:10 am to 9am, and 4:45pm to 7pm

Right and we're still surfing the wave of over -application excitement that started pipe-curling back in the aughts... eventually it'll rumble to white noise and fade away into the table of just another in a plethora of available environmental factors. And then some other astrological awe of wonder will emerge and become the lever that propels someone's career and standing ..and then that'll get over applied...etc etc

The thing about SSW's ... not that anyone cares to know this, but my own observations have led me to downplay some of their significance. ( - per my own evaluation over the decades, now dating back to 2004 ..when I and anyone I'm leaving out first brought the phenomenon, along with the subsequent Arctic Oscillation forcing/correlations to the attention of Eastern) Or perhaps - they were more significant in the previous global paradigm? It just more in the way of informed conjecture so don't anyone that relies on them let it get your panties in a twist... Firstly, the data is readily available at CDC. There, and elsewhere by now, no doubt. But one can go look back to 1979 at that site ( at least), and observe every year since. One can see the thermal, wind flux in the U/V components, along with the wave functions that occurred during all winters. Now ...those that know how to identify SSWs: A, warm intrusion B, subsequent downward propagation of warm anomaly, and associated wind reversal ... will know that this "B" is perhaps the most important aspect in total manifold of SSW - those that actually correlate with the AO. Too many people see a warm flash up in the 10 mb level and set off these Tweet electrical storms and fluff their celebrity for the day .... wrong. Man.. it's mind-boggling that this propagation mechanical necessity can't seem to penetrate skulls ... C ...lastly, the correlation to the AO is lagged by as many as three weeks. Another key numeric/objectively demonstrated aspect that tends to not be included in the Tweeter's turn of phrasing.... Where was I going ... oh yeah, some observed aspects over the years: the SSWs that met the total 'checklist' above, correlated very well to -AO. One can identify the SSW, then ...go look at historic monthly AO (tabular or graphic -) and see the subsequent dip that took place. However, the din of the winter on whole, ...sort of hide the SSW/-AO consequences. I've seen -AO responses to SSWs take place in both predominating +AOs, and already saturated -AO winters. IF we are 'enjoying' the latter winter anyway, you almost don't see the temperature correlation even manifest at mid latitudes, because it's engulfed in an already cooler year. If the -AO happens during a +AO winter... yes, you'll see the -AO response more vividly due to deltas, ...but there is no clear way ( as far as I can see) to know if the -AO means cold more for Eurasia ... Europe, the western hemisphere. In fact, 2006-2007 demonstrated this sort of uncertainty. There was no SSW that year, yet the -AO crashed in late January anyway ... So what's the difference? It got cold and stormy at mid latitudes ... If an SSW preceded all that, ... it was going to do it either way. My recent sense of the SSW --> AO stuff is that it is just another factor that may help. If your in a miserable +AO winter... it may 'help' reverse fortune. There are enough SSW- AO winters in there that were more ghostly as an influence, though.

Interesting choice of pallet ...considering that both colors have been borrowed by modern vernacular to indicate machinery that won't work -

edited by Raymond -

What's it like there now? I can see the anvil canopy escaping E pretty quickly, but I'm not seeing a very convincing trend that what it reveals underneath will allow a lot of heating.. but, sometimes the sat can look worse than ground truth -

Ha... I looked at the mornong sat trends and just thought, ' ...not sure what guidance had for cloud products but this sucks'

I'm taking 70 -80/ 30 -20 blend of the operational Euro/GFS for this Monday through the middle of the week ...something like that. Both the 00z and 06z deterministic GFS solutions took a pretty hard step in the direction of the operational Euro's recent notions of non-hydrostatic hgt anomalies more E ~ along 100 -90W, as opposed to the previous notions of packing the -PNA ridge response back west toward what looked like a large error +PNAP orientation. I'm including more of these newer GFS trends in deference to climatology ... But also because there is 'panache' to recent hemisphere, as well as numerical realization combined, that argue for more jet exertion near the lower Ferrel latitudes - likely associated with early seasonality. So, slicing jetlets SE out of Quebec isn't a terrible idea ... perhaps delaying a Euro solution some. It's just that the GFS biases in this direction in the D5-8 range ... as far as I can tell, at all times. Makes that tricky. The GFS is also new to this idea of more -pNAP structure so it may still be 'waking up' With an 80/20 blend (E/G), does send an anomalous warm look into the OV/MA/NE regions. I don't know if that description's 'oh-my-godness' resonates with the present Kevin spin machine or not ... but, it doesn't look very autumn like. It looks down right summery. Noted that the operational Euro offers what looks like near historic high temperatures ..perhaps the 20th(Tuesday). But I don't know what records are in the area. Plus, this is D7 so..

It's been that way since 1994 as far back as I can recall, too - I mean, it may be better - I dunno.. Don't use the guidance much. It may boast good numbers or whatever, but it has this weird way of not doing so when one is using it for anything - or, apparently doing aMAzing when no one is looking ...