Typhoon Tip

I know - just heard. That is weirder for some reason than hearing about other celebs.

It's interesting ... if one is a tedious nerd ( lol ) ... No but it could be a 'warm continental look,' while not resulting that way over eastern NE - which doesn't take a lot of prose to explain how/why if one knows anything at all about this region's climate. 'Blah blah bd have you any wool' The problem emerged more so over the last 24 hours, so 4 cycles of models. The Euro and GGEM bit really hard on the BD idea in the 00z run. So much so that we actually would put together a negative high temp anomaly on Tuesday and Wednesday - complete 180 reversal. This is one those places in the world where late mid range model error can be so excessive as to be diametrical. I mean, two days ago, 95-100 near historic heat wave, poof! 55 F BD joy destroyer. I guess it's better than the 1980s, when it would happen on the day its self. I remember a couple of memorable BDs in mid to late 80s where the forecast was 90 the night before a day that wound up slate gray with cool passing mist. It used to be short duration error/correction - blind sided. At least now the tech is sophisticated enough to at least be sensitive to it at extended leads. The question is, how much or little in this situation. Thing is, I can see this going either direction - interestingly, the last 2 runs of the GFS have done just that. The 06z removed the BD entirely..The 12z brought it half way back. Which means it has had 100% in both directions in the last 24 hours worth of runs. My thing is the -NAO. 1 It's been progged in the various guiadance for some time. As is usually the case...it is stochastic within the frame-work of the daily model depictions. Whether the blocking is biased over the western domain, or east...matters. The east may allow the wave spacing room to pass the flow flatter off the Maritimes... But if it bumps west more, that probably parks 50/50 sort of aspect there and we'd be doomed to cool departures in a warm pattern. 2 The other aspect on that is, the -NAO is notoriously over-sold/constructed at this range... 3 ...Related to that, we are still seeing vestiges of a progressive pattern. It's why the closed low got abolished from the runs recently, transforming the outlook for Mem Day substantially improved. But that tendency doesn't really lend to NAO blocks. If #2 and #3 prevail, these recent BD/heat cancel ideas are model hoaxes and we roast.

Depending on how fast this circumstance translate through the area, these positive tilting/ albeit weakening total trough spaces can sometimes over produce - the synoptic signal gets surpassed by the convection rain rate ... at local scales. But the positive tilt of the trough, maybe some quasi training too. Anyway, nice cloud photogenic displays with crispy TCU. Like that! Saturday ...New England... Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints will likely yield 250-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon. A frontal segment will move east across the region during the afternoon and provide a focus for isolated-scattered thunderstorm development. A couple of locally intense multicells may yield wind damage or marginally severe hail for a few hours before diminishing.

When I think about this ... "radicalism" leaps to mind ... Example, it is really no different than 'radical Islamism' - if people need the awareness aid. To corrupt and manipulate the context, thus, evade the purpose of any formal scripture - be it holy or not, in this case Islamism and the Quran interpretation - in order to justify acts of immorality or psychosis, versus, manipulating the context of the 2nd Amendment of the constitution, in order to supply justification of what the 2nd Amendment NEVER INTENDED TO REALLY PROTECT, what's the f'ing difference? Orders of degree in egregiousness doesn't make it more or less right or wrong. Whether we corrupt the intents and purposes of the 2nd Amendment, to evade the immoral truth, people want to be able to SHOOT OTHER PEOPLE, or do so to topple the Towers of Babylon, 9/11, it's still corrupting the intents and purposes of scripture to supply some sort of pseudo frame-work, attempting to escape culpability. I just see a truism nested in the motivation for the manipulation in this case... call a f'ing spade a spade, might help clarify matters and what's really at stake: 'I want to be able to shoot people.' Otherwise, why own the gun. At the end of the day, their is an incontrovertible chain of logic that put the onus on the gun owner, logic that can only controverted if said chain of reasoning is evaded by pointing to the 2nd Amendment "debacle" ( not debate) - sort of like how Filibusters stone wall bill passing, but they are evading the moral red hand truth of it all. The only way else around that is to just admit one carries no moral restraint when it comes to shooting people. Just admit it. Because then there is no need for all the tactical evasion, that's all it is at the core. People want to retain the right to shoot people, without actually saying so... And are hiding behind the false dogma of the Constitutional scripture to protect a right they are completely falsely believing they have. Who would ever ratify the right to shoot someone - I mean, as a codified statute? ...c'mon. It's all laughable really. Our population has a selfish bias ... we don't think of things as a problem until the hurt us personally. This debacle has gone on long enough. Actually, that's probably actually humanity-scale thing LOL.... Shy of that exceptional awareness, it's all based on systemic delusion and lies ... turned over and tilled into generations, it is all but the mud in the bricks of institution.

That last example of that playing out was particularly frustrating ...but the frustration - for me - was really not the low level lag ... it was that WPC can't or don't and won't account for that some how, some way, in their surface synopsis. Like you intimated ...and they had the warm front up near Fryeburg Maine while Bedford Ma was still 68 with ESE flow. Fitchburg was 78 and BDL was 90 ... I mean it did flood through later in the day ( Saturday) but it took hours to get that lowest 2,000 feet really down to the Earth.

All three are bullying that look in as a party crash/new look ... we'll see. They seem to have opted to park a vortex near or SE of NF, which is a continuity break. But also causes that BD to get sent SW... We're talking about D6 so it could just be another peregrination to fend off. The N Atl. isn't the best modeled domain of the models.

It appears the GGEM and GFS favor a short total wave length ( i.e., the ridge is 'sharper' in the up down circuitous structure), as it centers over ~ eastern OH. The Euro was as amplified in the z-coordinate heights, but it was also not as short in that regard - fwiw. The new run is coming out now, so we'll see. The GFS has been fighting this next ridge/heat surge... But the former two are MCS tracking/favoring. They also would not likely allow uninterrupted heat- they both outright show a Tuesday am screen door slamming flag whipping backdoor blast. Whether that happens or not... that's what they are showing. Tuesday afternoon has most of eastern NE with temps down into the 50s before dark, and probably slate skies have slabbed in from the NE in those depictions/handling. It's suspicious that immediately the following afternoon, it's rolled back out and flooded the region back close to 90. That's atypically too fast. But ...it's all moot if the synoptic wave lengths are being erroneously shortened -a flatter ridge orientation wouldn't allow any of that to begin with.

I've bloviated over this in the past ...but paraphrasing the sociological blow-back phenomenon: It's rudimentary pacification syndrome ...heh. I am making that phrase up, but, at at rudimentary level, there's just enough access to provision and leisure accesses to population, it has over successive generations since ... ameliorated immediate senses urgency, both in the individual, but integrating to communities and bulk-communities ...eventually all of cultural moves along with those modes of thinking. Little longer op-ed: Humans are slaved to their corporeal senses... Those being, sight and sound, touch, taste and smell, etc? If a 'threat' does not immediately appeal to one of those, there is less impelled reaction. That does not exactly parlay into several generations later, having evolved compulsory checks and balances and/or a basal moral/ethical system that keeps gun purveyors and psychotics, in check, does it. No. Among other shitty aspects of it all, it doesn't fix those either. As an aside, good luck getting global warming across, when it is really invisible. That thing has 0 advocates. We were musing in a text stream over this ... it's like we are in a slow moving 'quasi' anarchy-like, dystopian meltdown. The 5 minutes scene isn't dense enough to see it. But spread out over 5 or 25 years ... we do sometimes see cars overturned on fire. Bricks thrown through windows. People tearing down streets wielding guns and knives. Ransacking. Spread out over longer time spans, there are examples of all those ... much, much closer to reality than merely symbolic, actually taking place. Be it rushes on department stores. Mass shootings. Violence and sporting events more and more commonplace ... wtf do we think that shit is, when laws, much less mores, provide no deterrence ?! We are currently in a slow cooking frog phenomenon, and it is we that turn up the heat... That resulting incidences carry shame, yes. But the real shame is on evolution. It provided human kind with a unique ability for cause->effect calculus, yet we don't do the math. Or, often times, ignore, spin truth, rationalize the results on the other side of the proverbial equals sign, if it doesn't fit into our self-centered ways and means.. Unless making the dumb decision actually incurs a consequential pain, the other human motivation circuitry takes over. And it's unfortunately that is where the darker side of humanity lurks. Despite all conceits and conventions to the notions that people are basically good - that is the dumbest f notion ever. No, they are not. Not in a system of provision, where scarcity no longer teaches, or by circumstance, keeps relearning the the lessons of what is really valued, and thus appreciates. That failing is always in place now in modernity less guided by those curbs. And really, since the Industrial Revolution made it plausible that all echelons, despite however impoverished, still do in general escape the over-shadowing existential fears that those countless heredity's prior to the "invention of surplus" - which the industrial revolution brought an escape to humanity - lived in fully. It's really like we are not evolved enough to handle the power and impunity.

Yup... exactly what I imagined would be the case... the GFS is petty in fabricating any possible physical reason to not bring heat east of the Hudson permissible by its electron consumption. At least nowhere near the proficiency of the Euro. I don't care about getting the heat here so much, but ...I just hate the GFS and feel it's fraudulent as a guidance some times - like some percentage of it ( frustration hyperbole) is 'faked' with params that get exposed at times. But looking at the ens means of those respective camps ... looks like the operational GFS might be too sensitive in those idiosyncrasies it's doing. Like, hold onto a single contoured closed 500 mb, and then moving it so rapidly around a clockwise rotation into the SE U.S.. It made sense with the bigger version of this that happened a couple weeks ago, but this thing is tiny by mass field comparison, and moving clockwise is reverse angular torsional and should cause it to spin down/be less able to offset that NVA influence from that movement through the medium. It's just hanging onto it too long - K.I.S.S. In the foreground... it would also be nice if the Euro is more correct because it saves Sunday and Monday. The GFS spent one run looking more Euro like...and we had agreement with those two guidance. But summarily overnight, it tries to go half way back ...which is just enough to ruin the holiday. It's almost comical.

Just a comment on the Euro: That is a climate event on the 00z cycle. The hyperbole in that bold is to connote, it has more significance in the total circulation mode than a run-of-the-mill heat wave That represents 3 consecutive runs from this model source showing this - and all three worked dangerously elevated HI values throughout the Corn Belt/Lakes region. Yesterday's subtly less 12z complexion, comparing to the prior 00z run, I believe pretty strongly was just the diurnal respiration of the troposphere, where at the dawn end of the cycle deflates compared to the ballooning at the other end. In other words, ...accounting for that 'diurnal tide' all three of these runs, back-to-back, appear to be quite similar, thus demonstrating high continuity. It's op-ed on the Euro in a vacuum; verbatim, that's a nasty nasty rip-and-read - and again. Only this time, the suggestion yesterday that the Corn Belt/Lakes heat might destine into NE ...is outright depicted to do so. ...now, there's other guidance. 06z cycle, notwithstanding too. It even goes out with a whimper at the end of that run. An aspect about these bigger climate buster events, they tend to 'fade away' - perhaps at the rate of the planetary wave function(s) that foot them. ..etc. the a speed of R-wave migration. They don't end with the big Hollywood idea or visualization. Not always true though...I think 2012 had a heat wave like this that ended in a derecho.

Euro has back to back 98 F days in NE Mass next week - that's about as high as I have ever seen a 2-meter product on a D8/9 chart from that particular guidance source ..for whatever that is worth.

Actually ...it's attempting to surge the heat in ... capping/CIN on Monday. But prior to that, the more trough coherence over Friday/Sat actually reenters the possibility of more convection concerns.

Reminds me of the opposite season in the old days of modeling ... A day 7 GFS would sometimes depict a pancaked flow escaping the east coast ... all but completely flat. Then, in one run it'd go from nondescript kink on a boundary ,fleeing seaward, to a full-on Norwegian model low replete with coastal impacts. Seemingly abbra cadabra

I was just thinking that... lol - like wtf honestly though, d6 - right? I mean the models sort of have the right to correct things at this range. I'm not sure we should skewering any of then. I mean not that anyone has, just sayn'

I mean that's more than caving - that's not even in the same f'n zipcode for sensible weather. Lol I posted about this, this morning ...that the GFS really should begin correcting and modulating toward the Euro - This was an even bigger leap in doing so than I imagined would be the case for the single/next run. I figured it'd be a 2 steps ahead 1 back. But this? I mean, that's a whole scale redraw.

I didn't think the 00z Euro was that bad. The 06z may be 'better' or whatever, but the 00z layout was weak gradient and UN-GFS like. It actually looked like it had some convective nature to the QPF sourcing, ...maybe some entertaining thunder? But the 850s are mild to warm, and that whole thing opens up a little bit on the 30th ... Anything is better than the GFS ... man.

So I think what's gong to happen ... the oper. GFS will correct toward the Euro for the Mem day weekend. The 00 renditions are in reasonable agreement, wrt to the handling of that trough eject through the MV at least through D4 ... but they part company rather extremely as that mess approaches the eastern seaboard. The GFS over-deepens the Rockies aspect on or around D6 ..7, and that causes the immediate downstream wave lengths to buckle between 90 and 70W. That scaffold grabs the vestigial trough remnant, closes it off, and sends it S astride the MA over the remainder of weekend - which I think is bs overall ... My hunch is that the GFS tendency to lower heights in troughs and nadirs, too much, is causing all that. Fwiw - the 06z corrected the D4/5 west, and that immediately corrected the structure along the EC ( transitively) ... As we age through these days this week, we'll likely see more solutions like the 06z ... 'fill' it in, wash it out, more so like the Euro.

Just adding an opinion here to that... Anecdotally based on my own observations, since the 1990s, that seems to be more and more observable - a kind of 'correlation breakdown' increasing in frequency. All winter long it was remarkable watching the La Nina decouple, ...recouple, only to decouple... The MJO was faux attributed to forcing circulation modes, only to have the weekly publications have to abandon the previous week's assessment/causality. Couple of examples of longer and intermediate terms teleconnectors there. But even the intraseasonal/weekly modes have been less dependable.

Wrt to the Euro 00z run... Not intended as prognostic or deterministic effort. This is just a scalar implication of that 192 hour synopsis. Spanning the Corn Belt/Lakes region around 168 hours, a circumstance approaches a "Pacific NW" heat event. Probably would not match that exceptional rarity that took place up there, late last June, but both then, and this Euro now, are examples of "synergistic heat waves. " Their exact magnitude comparison aside, the phenomena is paramount. 24+ C, 850 mb temperatures looms over the entire region, with pock nodes to 25! (indicating 850 was adiabatically breached) over a region the size of Texas. Leading, modest seasonal rain deficits. That will edge the thermodynamics toward the drier theta-e side of the "heat dome climate" typology. Then, under solar max radiative forcing. That is an over-lay of less-than-obvious initial conditions, silently interacting factors that support one another: the results exceed the more obvious (non-silent) input metrics. Earlier expansion under very intense sun, feeds heat back in... etc. The system over-achieves. Hint, we don't want to over achieve +25C at 850 mb over Chicago under June Sun Bottom line, connotes historic temperatures. It would be worth looking those up out that way, should this 192 ( would last thru D9 too), become more confident/urgent. Possibly all-time of June. That scenario on there looks on paper like antecedent circumstances are converging there. Questions is, ...where does that go? Not sure it's going to ever get here...but that's close! The Euro has been signaling this -PNAP surge for the last 3 days, ...the EPS has been on board with at least moderately expansive geopotential anomalies. The -PNA over all is clearly the footprint hemisphere leading, so ... in wait of happenstance timed/embedded wave mechanics than super-impose a ridge genesis, is also a bit of a positive feed-back. The operational Euro run shows less restraint in synergizing all these factors. The ens means of the GEFs and GEPs have been more similar to the EPS for May 30 thru June 4th or so during the last three days, which reflect solutions that don't support those erstwhile GFS close-happy offset.

If it weren't beyond D6 I'd say we have an epic model battle going - the problem is, that far in advance sort of gives them all a lot of latitude to f-up. I think if we're still in disparate state on D4, the fight's begun?

out of the GEFs individually, I saw 6 total that could offer support to the operational version for Sunday/Monday. Otherwise, none do - the operational is also the most amplified of those members that do carry the closed low/weakness shit parade. They are in the minority.

oh Brian beat me to it .... right ?

Jesus.... I cannot imagine a synopsis for Sunday into Mem Day, more diametric to the GFS than what the Euro has, without it just being on another planet. It seems to me there are two sensitivities vying for 'f-up the holiday rites' 1 -NAO; it's out there as a wild card. The Euro's been flip flopping with magnitude and placement. So has the GFS... But in either scenario, if that gets westerly limb over the domain, we have BD issues regardless of the closed deal - so this is kind of a personal obs/addendum. 2 ...that closed low. The Euro has zero, the GFS is miserable... the GGEM is in between. The Euro actually sends Monday afternoon toward HHH while what ... 52 with east windy rhea into CC Bay on the GFS. Note, the NAO can often be modeled negative, and just not be negative when the time comes. It may not be factoring ... just sayn' so long as it's there.

GGEM looked better to me - fwiw. still ends up with piping high retreating E ...which isn't hugely warm, no. But it looks fair aloft

yeeeah.. on the fence personally. That weird cut off three weeks ago, that pinched at first as though it would stay E and spare, ...did that huge clockwise track spanning some 7 days...only to come back up the coast as a smearing vestige. It also served as an 'inverted block' because the high pressure initially over Maine couldn't sink SE of the Cape. It was sort of anchored in a position to keep us in an east flow. Remember? I mean it was like 4 dry but cloud days with drilling E wind, followed by 4 sunny but still drilling E wind when all that happened. These inverted blocks happen too - This thing that the GFS and GGEM reverted to in recent run cycles, hint at doing a similar inverted aspect ... hold the high to a N position E of Boston. That said, the cut off isn't anywhere close to the same frame-up momentum, as that big gyre back whence. The other thing, I've noticed this in the past with models over many years actually - they seem prone in the mid range to disproportionately drive surface responses from weak mid level mechanics. The GFS has a single close 500 mb contour, ...filling at that, as it rotates closer to the MA. Yet N of up the coast results near gale CCB coming into the Bite of NY. I don't know if that's really true - seems a bit too much of a response.