Typhoon Tip

Too black or white ... Scientific wisdom says this is a much too stringent perspective. Particularly ...the use of that word, "worthless" - It would only be that way if the undergirding of climate system was excessively different - which it is not. This is not Venus ... despite the entire state of the climate change zeitgeist. The zeitgeist is what it is, because unfortunately .. .humanity does little based upon verbal warning. They have to be struck by discomfort, failing that, fear, to engine motivation to change. I've often mused, 'humanity sets upon the proverbial rail tracks, and as the iron beneath their feet has begun to whir ... they don't move off the track - they argue about the style of shoes they wear to the engagement.' That's because it is an evolutionary trap ( perhaps, irony...) that we do not really respond to threats unless they directly appeal to the standard senses: sight, sound, taste, touch, or smell. If you warn someone of impending doom... they look up and try to observe its truth, utilizing these senses. But, if they look up and see the impending intersect with the "train" as an observable destiny... they will go great strides to avoid said intersect. Climate change is in that folly of evolutionary space. It doesn't have any advocates that directly expose, thus appeal to these standard senses - although ... indirectly? Sure, as we are seeing evidences in the system that CC's slow cook is a destructive influence now. It is thus no wonder why there are more obvious movements and legislation, in general, around the 'responsible' governments of the world. It's because even so much as an indirect observation framework ... begins to appeal to a sense of realism. As an aside, ... human ingenuity has outpaced the biological method for downloading information about the surrounding environment. These "senses" ? They are nature's "USB ports" The way to compensate for the "toad in pan of water," unwitting experiment humanity is turned up the heat on itself ( if one is less aware of that cruel experiment, this metaphor won't work...), is to use fear. It's an unfortunate circumstance that CC has to be over-sold in order to motivate change... An overselling that leads to people applying CC to every thunderstorm. Including ...odd patterns of behavior that failed an analog. Analogs failed in 1980, too. The dial on the Global temperature has moved between .85 and 1 deg C, in the last 100 years. It's not an all or nothing... The cliche, 'shades of gray' is unfortunately apropos.

These run peregrinations indicate the situation is still pretty fluid - and I don’t mean that as an unfortunate pun. Heh. I mean in 120 hrs The mid-level is down near Kentucky …that’s still a ways enough off. And we’ve been having problems with the Pacific relay into North America all season long with timing and structure of short waves …it’s been a spacial-temporal nightmare for determinism so its a red flag imho to put a stop on presumption

I’m not sure I buy that thaw just yet. Hmm.

GFS has the 26 to 29th system back again as a really aggressive northern string digger… Better fire up a thread LOL

The ridge or western North America is also bulging east more aggressively on some of these guidances. That’s probably more important in where this thing ultimately locates in the west east aspect. but the sp Vortx stuff going on north is very important for how our boundary layer conditions will be as well and if it gets strong enough it will ultimately stop this thing from going up in Ontario altogether and we end up with a whole different scenario anyway

The GFS can’t really adjust any more east with the deep layer or that low is going to start committing more to a coastal scenario. It’s already kind of trying. I’m also pretty certain that the boundary layer is being eroded too quickly New England with a high-pressure up there

It was originally ‘boat’ But people didn’t like it …so I changed it to the other one out of diplomacy and mild social stigma lol

Yeah, it does The discussion point is/was the signal? How a direct threat emerges within that signal was never guarantee? I mean I’m not insensitive to it… People obviously are going to be inclined. However, I also pointed out that I was above confidence for an impact in our area; I never explicitly said it would be a blizzard or the snow storm or anything like that. meteorologically, … seeing as this is a Weather board, the thread is on point but obviously we collectively want a result different than Detroit Michigan lol I cautioned folks that it’s still 132 hours before this thing is committed to a Great Lakes cut. It’s 5 1/2 days from now …there’s time for this to wiggle back east and in fact the 18 Z went east about 500 miles from what I’m seeing. The other thing I also noticed is that there’s a 1042 mbar high park just north of Maine and these models all have pressure in that area above 1036 anyway. Yet they’re just taking the storm straight through it without any hesitation in the body layer and I find that hard to believe so this is going to be correctable at the mesoscale as well as we get closer. Assuming it is a big dramatic storm (which I’m not even sure it doesn’t start to normalize and become more moderate in scope anyway as we get closer but that’s weak speculation ) I don’t post threads to placate people’s d-drip. At least that’s the furthest thing from my mind. When I see a signal that large that powerful I’m going to want to discuss it anybody would. The fact of the matter is a Great Lakes cutter, or an East Coast event, would fit in the signal people just need to deal with that

This as is kind of reminds me OF an '80s storm.... At least serviceable cold --> rain --> cold There were several years there in that decade where it was just easier to give in an assume that's what would happen. What's interesting also, is that there were several exceptionally deep powerful bombs that just nicked the Cape but missed otherwise that decade... It was like there was this diverter in the field sending everything W or S ... seldom through the middle. But, there were some. We had pretty spectacular positive bust event in early February of 1987 I think it was... Supposed to be 1-3" ending as light rain, and we got 10" in 4 hours with thunder. Then there was the 'ZYSYGY' storm in '86 I think it was... that dumped 20" over interior eastern Mass. Here and now... I wonder if 'model magnification' may be overdoing this thing some. I've wondered that from the beginning. We don't need 962 mb lows to answer for a 'big signal' ... A 978 mb low over NYS will do just fine to standardize butt bang NE out of a white holiday, and still be sufficiently large to account for the D(+PNA) --> PNAP. This is also a situation where the signal is very real... but whether it affects this New England region or Michigan is coming down to the fact that the PNAP is biased W. The ridge has gone back W or is going W, depending on which guidance, and so the wave comes in and rails SE too early to be an EC expression. That's it. I suppose it can change. Also, if the flow proves less amplified overall, you may gain some longitude back for just being a flatter significant system over one that takes a larger parabolic dive.

Interesting how little the overnight various sources did to resolve differences among the various sources. For starters, at just 156 hours (~) lead left to go before amplitude time, to see the entire GEFs suite that much different than the EPS ...ranging from mean and spreads astride the EC, to full southerly blown Lakes cutter, not personally sure that's very normal. 156 hours is right on the cusp of 'not so far out there' vs acceptable variance so. Whether one gets the model cinema and d-drip they are looking for out of these runs today ( lol ), there will certainly be some value in the mystery in its own rights. The operational runs more than less are within their ensemble clusters. No help there. GFS has ICON model on it's side - but having read how/why the ICON model got its name/technology therein, I'm not sure that's just a coincidence. No help there. This is a great chess match. On one side... we snow --> mix --> rain --> snow, windy coastal bomb that rides either just west of the I-95 corridor, or if the ~ 1/3 of the GEFs seaward members are right ... a humdinger with more snow rides east of that track. On the other side, the air mass out ahead turns around and bodily moves out with no cryo entry...it just sort of matures from whatever we deal with after today's morass, into tea-time with Grinch. There will be a winner, and a loser - .... lol, ah HA! the NAVGEM splits the difference almost precisely looking at the mass-field in and around the event. That's amost comical, that the course of lesser regret in this situation, the compromise, is right where that particular model depicts its synoptic evolution. Again...given to that model's history and the fact that it's not really supposed to be used for this sort of analysis over land ( per it's creators). No help there. All the while, a huge signal is still there for a event, and at least that much of this is higher confidence. Just some morning musings... I could almost see this devolving - though - from a big one to perhaps two more moderate events ( with upside), spread out. The NAO is weakening it's negative grip in the numerical guide - not sure if that meets with the eye-ball test on the geopotential means/charts... But, with a -AO/ rising PNA --> surging +PNAP, the idea of a fast flow does enter the picture. Fast flow is less physically conducive to bigger singular events... That may help distribute impulses more than collect them ..etc. From what I am seeing of the 00z Euro that really differentiates its overall handling out there is that it is sagging the western end of the SPV draped across southern Canada, into the Pac S/W as it slides by heading SE...and this induces a subsume phase, which torques up and breaks earlier across the continent. It's really outpacing the +PNAP, or is right on top of it in space and time. The GFS appears to keep these streams more separate, as does it's little buddy the ICON, and it's system ends up less wound up ( albeit still potent) farther east.

Wouldn’t be shocked if this whole thing just turns into a modern event by virtue of moving too fast. Maybe two of them around this time, and again in the 26th to the 30th. This sucker’s movin right along in the guidance lately no matter what it does

Not necessarily. That lead wave in effect “steals” dynamics away so the real low is kept weaker than it could otherwise be … but that limits the amount of cyclogen feedback on height falls lending to keeping the entire structure from closing. In total this keeps everything open and sheers the low pressure out along the gradient of the isohypsis aloft and that’s why it looks that way with that weird fist. Yeah taking on low pressure below 960 right over the chain of the white mountains is a little odd

I suspect what’s going on there with these runs that are further east is that they are prematurely detonating sfc responses along that incredible baroclinic interface thats gonna exist along EC. Then running up the coast and running away with everything before the best Q vector forcing even catches up with them so we end up with these dual centers

It’s a little weaker but it’s actually probably better for those they want this to perform differently locally… In fact it’s at 144 and looks like it’s got a pretty good amount of wind Max catching up with it

That whole surface evolution is premature for what’s going on aloft… I’ve noticed that with some of these models that are further east with everything they’re so sensitive to the baroclinicity that’s like a powder keg that they’re spinning up lows prematurely

It’s just ahead of the GFS by probably two or three days …around DAY6 and it’s really got something historic lined up on the eastern seaboard again

This ICON model looks nuts!

You’re ICON’s an icon for a bomb … right back where it started from. Looks like it’s headed for a violent solution too I’m not sure about this icon model in general by the way I’m just posting it for the muse of it For what it’s worth the western ridge is coming bodily in this time

Soaked cotton balls kicking in now... 34... Seems we got a legit T correction ... was 41 an hour ago...

Fwiw - Ayer is 35 with cat paws on winshields

It's important in the sensible weather... it's just not a driver... I mean duh...if it pins over N Ontario, and say this thing stem winds early ... this becomes a 'Minnesota squeeze'. Yeah...all being unfair in this p.o.s. world ... it would be better to get a squeezer over a 1994 southerly gale, sure. What you describe is the squeeze under idea But, the ridge is what determines that S/W's trajectory in the 'dive' ...It's going to ride the ridge - that's just it. There's a complex aspect to this that I'm leaving out ...because I'm not sure other want it... But, a steep L/W over the Conus does delay the internal S/W break timing, because the curvature of the large scale offsets the PV of the trough, so it remains more open until it hits the bottom - ... blah blah. The foreign models are interestingly less PNA mode change --> +PNAP

Again ... and nothing's forcing me to see this otherwise - The amount and position of the western N/A ridge is > 50% of this... The TPV ...SPV whatever we wanna call it, is not driving how this thing behaves over the continent. That feature is there because of the non-linear wave forcing from Rossby dispersion down stream of the Pacific, too. Anyway...those guidance' that were Michigan bound clearly demo the flatter ridge and early wave break over the midriff of the continent, resulting. The GFS has been different in the relay construct from the Pac over western N/A ... Frankly, I don't know which is correct. But... the wave it's self is very real - how the large scale pattern delivers it, that's what's really in contention among the guidance. I will also be the first to admit, ...I thought the western ridge would trend more robustly - As I've advertised, there is a whopper mode change in the PNA ... it really should deliver a +PNAP response down stream... Unfortunately, if that ridge pops as a west biased variant, that would be less useful for local winter weather enthusiasts to put it nicely... Remains to be seen.

There’s not much that is unusual or very extraordinary at all about that kind of variance at 160+ hours. It’s clear that people need (almost to the extent of an addictive response) steady trigger of thrills from the modeling cinema, and when they don’t get it… it really becomes intolerable both for them, but also for anybody that’s trying to just engage normally with this site – unfortunately.

No the clear difference with the GGEM is that it’s keeping the heights flat in the west over the relay from the Pacific Ocean over North America. … so there’s a ton of short wave mechanics delivered there but it’s just not “waiting” to break. It wraps up early over Chicago and so forth. I think it’s pretty clear almost to the point of cut and dry that the GGEM has to be correct about that orientation of the flow west of approximately 110 W. There doesn’t seem to be any factor controlling why it’s doing that at least from what I’m looking at …otherwise it solutions gonna be way too far west. Which it might be right to keep less ridging until the west….I don’t know. My first impulse is to say it’s wrong though because that ridge is rooted in the rise in the PNA. It’s also a continuity break in fact it’s last three cycles it’s been all over the map with trough handling Fwiw, that’s really kind of true for the last several cycles of that icon from what I’m saying. I don’t ever look at the UK met