Typhoon Tip

2 schools of thought regarding this week - after these near term POS days. 1 .. Telecon/mass field indicators support western height falls, and eastern conus rises. Now ... yeah, these correlations are less significant in summer, but ... we also have an overactive westerly issue spanning the hemisphere. Faster jets equate to longer, more coherent planetary waves. When I look back across this PNA( c/o CPC) ... yeah, it's not a terrible fit to have failed to deliver bigger heat to NE given the last 20 days We spent this month so far, in a pretty significant/robust +PNA... In fact, the integral of the curve above doesn't need to be calculated, its clearly the most robust since March 1. So any -PNAP intra-pattern and weekly modeling gesture, probably did not have a very good statistical footing to begin with for bringing heat NE. But look where that index mode is heading ?? 2 .. Climate inferential: What goes down must come up.. Otherwise, climate change is actually a cooling problem - which that is definitely not happening. Anecdotally - but still closer to fact - cold(hot) snaps are either corrected in one of two ways. Either single event of equal but diametric significance, or ... there is an aggregate of more modest ones that account over time. This is also a shaky logic, because there's time scale and relativity involved. It could be cold for a month and take 3 months to correct - in which case, it wasn't 'correctable' until a much longer time span accrued than the single month... and on and so on. That's why we haven't had a decent winter since 2015 down here in SNE ... because it will take ( apparently ...) the age of the known cosmos to make up for that f'n lunacy that took place back then... Well... anyway... I'm not sure the operational models are really presently representing what that look above could pack inside of it. Just as the integral over the least 20 or days is the most positive since Mar 1 ...so too is the forecast mean going negative in the next two weeks. The operational Euro and GFS seem to be ignoring it and I wonder if they'll break the other way at some point here

Mid 70s on Monday in the new NAM

See and people were bunning me three days ago when I told y’all we were going to see snow around First time I’ve ever seen snow during my life between the Great Lakes and New England within the same week of the summer solstice …yet +d(climate) rages on

Deform band is emerging

18 to 21z tomorrow on the 18z NAM looks like full sun 66 at ALB while it's 49 at Logan in occasional light rain.

Funny you mention... I was just looking over the 12z NAM's FOUS grid numerics and the thermal profile looks just about identical in memory to what I recall we suffered in May around this same time. This is really just a seasonal roll-back event - symbolically. By the folks, the NAM is trying to cat paw Mt Wachusett's summit tomorrow morning. Whether that succeeds or not, to even see that suggestively on a model at all, pretty much on the Solstice? That is an utter first for me.

"Foguast," not August, that is known as in the Bay Area. Obviously you're south of that region, but it reminds of it and probably you share in the same climate. "The coldest winter I ever experienced was a summer in San Francisco" - Samuel Langhorne Clemens. I feel it is a matter of time before a Pac NW event ( big heat June 2021 ) strikes California, mid coast down... It's just a matter of tapping the right frequency of a +PNA to get an easterly flow that is strong enough to compensate for the local marine signal. Santa Ana is more typical in southern California, but the climate change signal may bring that N, as the entire circulation manifold along with climate aspects are in fact moving N... It's an interesting emerging threat idea associated with CC.

No big heat that I can see, but quite likely our region transitions from this cool snap Sun/Mon/Tue ... through a transition window into an above normal temperature distribution in general by Wed onward. Looks like the 87 to 90 type D6/7/8 ...Euro takes it thru 10, but the GFS and GGEM want to skip the -PNA forcing an entirely, and just roll a new trough right back into SE Canada - we'll see. There is some tendency in the guidance to start pooling heat in the SW ... but way out there.

These are real leaners ... The tops are ripping off and sending down stream almost as soon as they breach the altostrata heights -

Unbalanced climate anomaly … There’s only one way to correct that … go the other direction. Question is, do we do so cumulatively over a span of modest events … or in a greater short duration extreme

GGEM looks pretty similar to the 00z version, actually . Fwiw -

It's like the Euro just gave up attempting to stop heat...collapsing like the Celtics in a 4th quarter. This below, with the exception of maybe Caribou Maine and Spokane Washington, the entire contiguous US is 90 or above ( obviously not in the bays and estuaries ..but in general) I'm not sure that's ever happened at this scale of pervasive coverage - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/f240.gif

I wonder at times if that adjective ever applies around here... But I guess if we mean prolonged relative to our climate? Sure - 2 days instead of 10 minutes... we don't see that either. GFS is also - as an aside ..- relentless in its pursuit to limit heat here to one day. It'll sometimes balloon a non hydrostatic ridge that's truly awesome, ...go look at the surface evolution, it's 12 hour of heat and it has a big sfc high wedging in the back end, while holding back warm fronts forever in the front. It may not be right - per se.... But, since we get f'ed out of heat anyway apparently at least excuse imagined, the model's technological evolution is at least heading in the right direction

What is ? Today, tomorrow ...or Sunday - You have three disparate sensible types rolling through. I guess it almost seem useless to the point of nihilism to even expound up either, when neither can persist around here long enough to matter.

You know... in the myriad of internal voices that combine to create the total din of internal thoughts this morning ... this occurred to me. The "Year without a summer" - 1816. Tambora had ignited such wonderful displays of sunset skies during the presaging times since that volcanic throat tried to pop the top of the atmosphere and send a geo-belch into near orbit... In a symbolic way, those splendorous distractions were like nature's "red light" to stop and take notice - not merely art. So the consequences set in ... and in that year without a summer, annuls that pertain to New England: 'frost was observed in every month' - I mean check that, but I'm preeety sure I read that took place. But what came to mind was that when we discuss climate change, we are really only discussing decimals over the course of a 30 years. Well, perhaps whole degree(s) at local climate scales - but over the global integral..etc. So, the 1816 summer failure took place in world where the temperature declined by all of 0.4-0.7 °C (0.7-1 °F). Which doesn't seem like that much - right? But that little amount meant frost ( and probably 3,500' elevation snow if any civility were present up there, in that era). So what I am getting at, even though ( and no doubt!) the next IPCC report will continue to doom humanity, as well... , NASA will report June as number 2 or 3 all-time hottest Junes since our species could give a shit) it doesn't thus intuitively 'seem' like we are so far gone up the scale that we can't f'up a summer in New England. Jesus christ.. . Frankly, I have never seen a weather pattern behavior so tediously petty in creating cold inserts reasons, specifically targeting Logan airport, such as I have seen happen in the last 5 years... And of course the surrounding region going down with it's like collateral bonus damage. We just cannot seem to "be allowed" to experience what the world has been - meanwhile, we have to capitulate based on the overwhelming impact of nocturnal anomalies... ?

It's a transition pattern, though. Caveat emptor on that "zonality" In a scalar sense, sure... I've seen the operationals and ens means; that's the gist of the blend. However, the various sources that cover/forecast the mass fields indicate a PNA that is going ↓ ...gathering more weight - so a trend to get more so too. It appears to me the different operational run "extended" ( in quotes because it's nebular and not necessarily the same amounts among them in space and time ) ranges have been resisting that mode change. The last EOFs provided numerical values that would sufficiently signal more ridging potential ( for a change ) east of 100 W than we are seeing. That's not intending to refute the flatter look, despite the subtext ... I mean sometimes the operational runs, ..particularly when they agree, can win over the telecon/ens mean. But just means to be leery. It matters re heat and convection trajectories is all... The PNA is supposed to be losing (seasonal) correlative value but.. I don't find that assumption to be necessarily "AS" true as say 30 years ago. Little longer hypothesis ... My personal speculation is that as we continue to evolve through this CC era, that is related to why we've been observing unusually strong mid latitude/ mid troposphere geostrophic wind velocities ... lapsing over into springs later and later in recent decade(s). I feel that CC is causal in that emerging aspect ... ( whole 'nother popsicle headache as to why, and this write is already stressing the attention of the reader in this on-setting zeitgeist of tweeting virtuosity ... heh, an entirely separate kind of climate evolution). Gaslighting parentheticals aside ... ( lol ), the logic goes like: faster wind --> wave construction --> R-wave structures. That maintaining coherence later and later, means the telecons correlations mathematically have to persist. So the ultra short version, the PNA ain't dead yet. That said, I'm wondering if we may see the zonal start looking more ridgy over the eastern continental mid latitudes.

Not a particular fan of the ICON myself and thus haven't seen, but .. per your description that sounds like July 2-3rd last year.

Why are you bunning me? that's the model doing that - I didn't run the f'n thing in my basement. That's what Ray was talking about . If reality conflicts with one's personal narratives and motivations or whatever, they impugn. It's silly - the G F'n S is snowing in upstate NY... deal with it

Depends on the scaling, actually... In terms of absolute value, no way - it could be -20 diurnal 'IF' the GFS' various fantasies play out, and there's no way we've been +20 yet. That said, it may be hard to get +20 in a June ... climate doesn't really permit that. Otherwise we'd be 95 to 100 far more frequently. So based on climatolgy ... mm, I'd still say this cool snap is deeper negative than the positives we've had - however much so. Just off the top of the head...

It actually splashed mix QPF down into upstate NY too...

Like to see one of those heat signals get to even D6. I think one will .. the eventual/onset -PNA probably does exert to a threshold and the circulation mode across the continent snaps away from that weird meridional flow thing we're observing - but ...it's not clear this would be the breakthrough look.

...it's like the Bubonic Plague of super cells, "the black death outbreak" muah hahahaha

Summer solstice snow as nearby as NF... Granted, it's the Canadian but you know ... I remember the sardonic jest a couple years ago in a post, words to the affect of '...the models won't stop until they succeed at snowing in June,' when extolling the very obvious oddity that's become a leitmotif ... A recurring theme/tendency to attempt to do this below. Meteorological spacing? That's next door.

Aauuh... . This isn't 1994... Day 4 is a little more dependable.