Typhoon Tip

Probably lesser known ( ... even lesser do many care - lol ) but there is a western Europe/Eastern N/A mid-latitude teleconnector that is positively correlated. When they are warm, we tend to be warm, and when they are cool, we tend to be cool. That, like all telecon's, probably has a better correlative significance in winter than summer. However, as I've op-ed'ed a few times over recent years, ... we have seen seasonal lag effects into spring, particularly with regards to the ambient total wind energy at mid latitudes, and that having those surplus mechanics tends to organize R-wave structures that last longer than is typical for AMJ ...etc, etc. That suggests for me that telecon's may be more useful - they work because of the geometry of R-wave distributions being planetary-footed, so if you have them, logic follows... etc. Long of the short, I think this, "Several southern French towns sizzled in record high temperatures for May on Wednesday, while the month as whole is on track to be the hottest since records began, the national weather service said. " as found (c/o) here, https://phys.org/news/2022-05-french-towns.html ...bears some pattern correlative weight up and down the eastern seaboard. Keeping in mind, these things don't necessarily line up exactly in space and time, either. That's why the correlation coefficiencies never = 1. But, sufficed it is to say... (barring the NAM's getting cute with E CT/ RI and E Mass removal) ...the weekend's +2 SD heat from DCA to PWM, and what could be episotic significant heat returns through the first week of June ( based upon the 'tenor' and trend of the operational runs, over a canvas of the ens mean suggestions), fits the lesser known model. As an aside, these scenarios are tough... We are likely to put up a warmer than normal month, any given month, do to the on-going CC ... if only by decimals, but warm nonetheless. Other months may be substantially more. These sort of special warm patterns may get too far embedded in those decimals and harder to parse apart. Having a random month be modestly cooler than normal, still not impossible, actually obfuscates matters even more.

Heat's very fragile.. It's almost impossible to hold a big heat signal for days leading - of all headline-able events in weather, it's probably the lowest deterministically until perhaps 36 hours preceding. Also, morning hi res vis loop suggests some sort of weak or even diffused BD crept into eastern/NE regions prior to dawn. The motion out over the waters is clearly <--SW ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Meanwhile, ORH's sfc wind is WSW/SW aver direction, while Logan up to BVY are ENE... It's not likely to dictate the day, just that it was cool look - heh, literally.

NAM is using that to cancel the heat for eastern CT/RI/E Mass ... interesting. It kinks around the pressure pattern and instills a light SE flow that doesn't turn around. Sunday becomes the warmer day, but then the main front's sped up in the various guidance and we're probably getting more clouds that day - if that's true. So, the big heat/record aspect might have just sailed. Not sure it's right, but not impossible I guess.

yeah...and seems like the heat wants to arrive on the aft heel of that, too.

that thing in southern Missouri looks suspiciously like a landphoon

Looking over/analyzing the NAM's sounding... I think it is too shallow with the BL depth, given this synopsis through the weekend. MET machine guidance was only 92 at KFIT/KASH/KBED which appears to low-ball a +21.5 overriding 850 mb metric - particularly when the wind is 240 deg at 10 to 15 kts in mid BL flow. That wind trajectory offers 0 marine/Serly contamination. Meanwhile, the the RH% at/below 500 mb all the way down are < 50%, under a climbing late May sun. It's definitely low balling the temps. Why? Well ...off the bat, it appears it is limiting the mixing depth/BL heights to just 900 mb level. One thing I have noticed about the NAM is that it T1 ( 20 mb above station sigma) is typically cold biased beyond 48 hours. As that intervals in question get nearer over consecutive runs, it adds whole degrees C to that T1 value - particularly outside of deep CAA times of year. This whole situation with a sudden jolt into a + standard deviation heat event, then added to that tendency, I think is exaggerating that effect. 92 is too cool on Saturday ( MET)... 88 at Logan is ungood forecasting -

'Wiz doing it the old fashioned way with the NAM grid over here... BOS/LGA 36000936454 03704 171915 66151712 36000995933 01993 151616 71142114 42000987647 -3494 161921 69131913 42002995640 05294 141709 74162417 48001975155 -1696 162214 73162317 48000984153 02695 172608 73172417 54000533228 00893 152409 76292419 54000583233 -1094 172208 75272718 60000522629 -0592 162310 76302319 60000542927 -0793 172211 75282418 I don't know if you know how to interpret these (FOUS) grid values, but as per my own pre reqs for Met back in the day, we used them regularly. Back then it was the NGM and the ETA, respectively. But now it's just the NAM... Anyway the two lines I bold show that the warm air burst, overtop synoptically, prior to the llvs catching up. That's by definition WAA... But here we see minor QPF of .01 and .02 respectively - which isn't insignificant when knowing what is going on synoptically to induce these numbers. The +23 and +24 C, between 2 am and 8 am Saturday morning, while it is +16 C in the low levels...etc.. You can also see the wind at both BOS and LGA go from S to WSW, and the sounding becomes adiabatic to surface ( or closer to it) under that warm layering upon the next interval? That's a warm fropa there. Anyway, I would not be surprised if there's frequent lightning predawn elevated stuff... and then look at the RH later in the day!! Bone dry after that morning advection clears, full sun and soars to 30C in the T1 at Logan. That's 34 or 35 C in the 2-meter (most likely)

Yeah ...I mentioned this last night with Tiger' ... The NAM shows elevated heat - almost like a hybrid EML arriving, between 900 and 850mb levels, during tomorrow late afternoon and night. Meanwhile, the surface T1 in the grid is still hung up in the mid 60s while that advection occurs. Like d(t) is +7 to 11 at 900 mb, rising from 13 or so at 4pm Friday, to 24C 11 pm Friday night. It's not clear to me that overrunning of 20+C air is going to happen without some sort quasi-warm frontal slantwise rise motion ... does it then breach free convection - i.e., elevated warm IB driven frequent lightning overnight/downpours strafing through... The caveat is the this SW/ Texan heat released air appears to be - perhaps - too early in the season? Whatever the reason, it's not clear it is theta-e charged. I mean, if this were coming in with a layer/slab of elevated DP off the deck, with some of that dry EML overtop, we'd probably see some of that isentropic lift action more obviously?

Yeah... (thanks) I noticed that all models are slowing the front now to Sunday night. 4 or 5 days ago, the original vision for this weekend was more like a Saturday shot - the deep layer circulation features toting that front along where stronger and thus faster. The funny thing is, I didn't mentioned this but I was internally voicing that the models, all of three majors, have a magnification' ( over amping) tendency for events that 'rise over the temporal horizon' of the outer modeling frames. It's something I've op-ed about in longer posts that by virtue of being too long and annoying, may not have been read - haha. What can I say - that's how I roll. Anyway ... it's like the S/W and associate front as well as the overall pattern manifold was 'logistically effected' by too much westerlies mechanics that these models tend to apply to the field ...and now that we are getting closer, it's a shallower wave. The ridge is more resilient that way... More resilience means more W motion to the level trajectory, and that's moving the wind dial from SW to more WSW and that makes big difference in maximization... As well, another positive feedback, causing more 'synergistic' heat, is that mechanical give back to the ridge is driving a hotter kinetic layer through the 900 to 700 mb level. That's +22.5 C inside that plume astride the SNE coast Saturday evening, a pocket that wasn't there at 12z - that means the the lower troposphere was plumbed and overturned by mixing... I don't know how that can happen without the adiabats also being extrapolated from 850 or even exceeding that sigma level. In short, I still think that 101 is possible at Hanscom Field, Rt 9, and over down town thoroughfares. Possible - as it, 'monitoring the potential for'

Funny you mentioned that ... I'm already noticing that happening... The front that ends our "two day" heat wave, has normalized some comparing the original modeling cinema from 4 .. 5 days ago. The upper support even goes more zonal in the non-hydrostats instead of trough incursion that yo-yos in and out...etc. In fact, centered on ~132 hours out from the 00z run cycle, all the models attempt even bounce the height back, already...by as early as Tuesday... However, because of idiosyncrasies over eastern Canada, we end up with high pressure at the surface retreat E of NF ..which sends NE trajectories back SW under the upper heights - so it's a dud, gutted ridge. But, the 850 mbs do reflect muted overall aspect, by only on average coming down to 9 to 12 C through the period. Then, there's suggestion of another flat trough and whisky front. Then, I'm tracking a much bigger systemically anchored heat look that's really quite awesome already in the 300 hour EPS/GEPs... The GFS is more tepid but it's own PNA is down below -1 SD by Mem Day weekend, which suggests room to negotiate.

Wow... arresting image. Again..for the upteenth time, I reiterate my sentiments that PF is a moron for not taking these to a digital re-mastery expert, and become rich, both in spirit and form, as an arty, wealthy kind of neo Ansel Adam's for broad vistas - This waste is like a single, middle aged woman whose clock is winding down. Her body was always deliciously hot, her face, melting hearts. Yet she's single, and doesn't know why - or does but covets the frustration and tears from other's eyes. She like this for failing to ever therapeutically connect with an obstructive force caused by an overbearing affection giver in her youth. ...One to this day that her adoration is immortalized. That's the insidious nature of that kind of 'psychic incest' (no physical manifestation), in that it feels so good while it is happening, the damage to individualism and personal growth space can be quite profound. This person essentially has had her ability to formulate affection 'shut down' by the psychic interference, the natural gestational phase of crushes on boys (or girls) we all suffer, may not have occurred at all during critical years ( 5-12), because of the overbearing predominating presence in her adolescence. She's intelligent, quick witted and can plumb deeper colloquy, otherwise, about a myriad of subjects she may not have ever been formally introduced with - she's smart enough to do that. And when not manufacturing 'fantasy conflicts' as a defense mechanism, keeping those who 'approach her' that way, at bay - anything to distance her self, all done unconsciously - she's really quite cheerful, approachable, and charming. But that demon keeping her from truly finding and engaging in life has proven too powerful, insidiously cloaked beneath these 'on-paper' social advantages... And now that her clock is winding down, at middle age, she's running out of time... If she doesn't figure this shit out, she'll miss the boat entirely ... and leave only an empty life behind. Never having framed this talent for photo-optic gems into an immortalizing homage to a great soul; instead, a portrait in the shimmering gallery of mediocrity.

00z NAM brings the elevated thermal layer over the region late Friday. It’ll be interesting Saturday morning when 900 mb is +25C over PHL NYC and BOS, full sun coming.

I thought about that. Maybe at the nose dew elevation/advection

You know ..I was also wondering about instrumentation. But I'm not a technology historian by any stretch - it's just that for example, earlier last Century the Death Valley record was set ( 2nd highest in the world), but recently that's come under some skepticism if not scrutiny due to that, and it was registered some 50 years later than the 1880's I do know from my half century's worth of existence that it's hard to get above 95 in May in general, and a-priori that's gonna date back many years before my feet hit earth - most likely.

Hey Wiz' ... you probably don't have idea or have never heard of this, "May 21, 1996 – A microburst caused extensive damage and 60 injuries in Plymouth County, Massachusetts, where winds were clocked at 104 mph (167 km/h). Brockton, Whitman, and Abington were the hardest hit towns." But that was led by 90 F temperatures that day. I recall that.. This set up Sunday sort of reminds me... although back then the heat punched in for just a day.

Ha ha ... I get it. But unfortunately, there may never be a "gawk scale" for which a single event is ever gonna be compared to. "It's got a holy shit we all gon' die, historic value of 9 on the scale of oh-shitness!" Breaking a 130 year record is breaking a 130 year record in the stricter scalar sense, and is impressive nonetheless for most climate and met trained. If that were to occur, it would be both awesome, and, still does fit in with breaking warm-related records in a +d(climate) era.

Telecon spread likes a warmer 2nd half of May .... right into the first week of June fwiw -

Mm... even considering the subjective nature of your statement (abv), even having a possibility of approaching historic numbers, those that were set over 130 years ago (99 ...etc), must be worthy enough - What does one need to 'impress' then. I think that's asking a bit much ... Looking at all years, it's hard enough to get above even 96 in the average July, just based upon historical inference.

Yeah... in terms of physical impact/'sensible' weather... 99/59 vs 95/65 ... that's why-for the invention of the HI calculation. Which,ha, has anyone every seen the actual equation for the apparent temperatures? Holy brain bomb of a headache that thing is. It's got estimates built into it too, or at least the version I saw back in the '90s. But for those interested in breaking record temperatures the HI isn't part of that - or maybe there is historic 'HI's ? I dunno - Does anyone know what the daily is for Saturday 21 May? what are the all-times? I suppose I could find those but if anyone cares to -

I thought it was 22 C in the Euro and GGEM. I realize that post is tl;dr for some but I annotated that chart fwiw - Having said that, I think that's 22 C... the color pallets a bit busy to be absolutely certain. Maybe there is a hard print of the 850 temps - I think I've seen Brian source that. If it's just 20C that factorable - sure.

Lol - ...oh K. Obviously the thumb in the rib there is that "some" people are talking about it, and some people might find it exciting. But you're right for pure meteorological curiosity, it is an aspect for discussion. Testing boundaries in Nature is part of the science of nature - that's really why-for the specter of any kind of event, however subtle or gross, is sought. 'What can happen' - probably built right into our instinctual wiring ( that blah blah internal motivator, that humans don't believe they posses - pure instinct). You know...we creatures have evolved curiosity of such things, because evolution chose our intellects to be our claws and teeth in the greater Darwinian sense? Intellect doesn't do much good without curiosity, because the latter ... puts the intelligence into the intellect. Pretty straight forward, and perhaps an easy intuitive leap to understand, this is what/why draws us to dramatic weather events. For physicists... finding the 'god particle' ... For artists, realizing the imagery in the mind, through their medium, is part of that same venture. etc... I don't mean to lecture you bro - you didn't ask haha... Just made me think about this subject again is all. For the record, the meteorology/leading therein is fascinating to me... I don't personally care to be 'stuck' in traffic with a failing AC in 95 F temperatures under a rotisserie lamp sun. I'm intelligent - not crazy.

It's funny you tossed the ICON into that comparison ... I don't really use that model - I gave it chance over the last two seasons and wasn't ultimately impressed enough to use it outside of a day...day and half. To many critical albeit only seemingly too small to matter reasons to ruin a clad forecast for me to bother - lol. That said, I do eye-candy it from time to time out of morbid diabetic practice ... it's been pretty sweet on the Saturday heat for week actually.

Is that a personal observation? Not busting nuts ... curious if that's documented. I did not know that. I was inclined to think it was just different moisture presence in the column in most cases. Which ...yeah, conceptually that can be vertical mixing related. But I was thinking that way because I remember the 2018 version of the oper. GFS's handling of that March Nor'easter, where it had that 39/32 column, at 98% RH, thru 3.00" of QPF... We've discussed ad nauseam -. So, we are a couple of upgrade releases/great grandson years late, and probably(hopefully) that sort of stuff has been un-mucked. I just sort of assumed there's a recessive trait there nonetheless- But yeah...I guess it could just be mixing too.

I mean... if the Euro wind field were to rotate/correct W ...more in line with a GFS trajectory, whilst keeping/conserving its other modeled metrics/verify ... yeah, I wouldn't have problem going 101 in the parking lot of the Burlington Mass/Mall, or sitting at an eternal red light on Rt 9 out in Natick... I mean with 22C mixing from Venus like that after several hours of full torch sun, the "real" ensuing 2-meter will ping that high. Clouds? Yup.. when we get into the post 95 VIP range, ... the clothes have to be clean.

Yeah this is a good take, Brian - if then getting down into 'local studies' scaling, there are little 'climate pockets' that will perform like that where circumstantial - like the d-slope this, or the drying sending the T side of 'T/TD' soaring...etc. Thanks for these... The Euro, we can see the southern marine there pretty clearly/as suspected yes. It's not as 'visible' but it probably keeps the the temps to 95 or < even as far N as southern NH ... certainly possible. Contrasting, the GFS has less of that. It appears to maximize a big heat result, despite the core of the hottest 850 mb plume escaping S of SNE ...interesting. Looking at the synoptics more closely, indeed it has more westerly orientation with the flow. Not hugely... some 20 deg of dial angle but that's probably enough to suppress the contamination - guessin' What are the DPs in the RGEM vs the 12KM NAM? That NAM ...I wonder if that's a bloated theta-e artifact. 84... okay haha