Typhoon Tip

FYI gents and gals I started a more focused thread re 13.14.15 … I did pay homage to 9.10 I think 9.10. is one or the other, with regard to cold air… If the surge comes in from the east and it’s cold enough for that to be oes and grits and so forth the storm is probably going south.

Hell freezing over apparently … cuz -3 SD NAO under a -4 SD AO is somehow not enough

This is admittedly unusually early, but it is intended for risk assessing, which 10 days is not obscene for that sort of effort. Therein, it is time ... I feel it's worth it to start a more focused thread for the 13.14.15th of the December. The 9.10 (dates) event in the foreground is noted, and not intending to ignore that possibility. However, that one may not actually time within the span of the western ridging, which is why ( ironically ) the better, given to better large scale synoptic scaffolding, is the 13.14.15 prospect - and why this thread is focused there. But again ... hmm, this is not intended to ignore 9.10 altogether. Both have frankly been suggestive is statistical correlations for over a week of guidance monitoring ... There is possibility ( among a plethora of them, frankly) 9.10 could 'steal' the show by slowing down and/or stalling due to the NAO exerting hemisphere, which would introduce wave spacing and a tussle in future guidance - cross that bridge. In the meantime, this for the overall rudimentary canvas being in place and is/has been well covered, while now ( and perhaps most important) the the Pacific relay has been changing in favor of a better showing of ridging in the west... Below, I have annotated the 18z GFS for explanation purposes only - although it's essence/principle did not deviate too significantly from the 12z re the period in question (13.14.15) it is too early in the ball game for deterministic slide into home base. Perhaps as an homage to just how sensitive ( and volatile) the ambience is over eastern N/A, almost immediately upon the ridge above presenting, ...the operational models waste little time materializing these illustrations. For now, all three more dependable guidance sources flagging moderate to major cyclogen from the Del Mar to CC region 13.14.15, and I do not believe that is mere coincidence. It fits the footprint of the mass field modes/modalities: relaxing NAO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png rising PNA https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.sprd2.png It's an interesting time to observe how the models resolve a complex Pacific relay that is dynamic, into a realm that is being forced to slow down by the might of what's proving to be a rather 'immovable object' in the NAO west limb block anomaly.

I snickered a little to self when no sooner do we have the ridge returning to the west in guidance, ...the GFS has to move to borderline wave spacing issues. can't f'n win

Yeah...detecting a primitive coalesce attempt on the 13.14.15 period - it was one of the original assessment intervals from last week. probably be a thread in-coming later, if anyone is interested? I feel it's worth it for the fact that the rudimentary canvas in place as is/has been well covered, while now subtle Pacific changes showing up in the EPS/GEFs.. Almost immediately we see this illustration materialize in operational, with all three flagging moderate to major cyclogen from the Del Mar to CC region. Sorry, that is not a mere coincident series/converged guidance'.

Did you go pro it?

yeah, I was just having fun with the GGEM's "ominosity" ( did I just make up a new cool sounding word... nice). But in more practical terms, ...didn't we see an exotic solution from the GFS like this ... 4 or so days ago? It just really hearkens to the range of possibilities here. I posed a little quiz to the general audience but will give away the answer, just cuz we're talking about it - the defining difference here is that we're getting more actual western ridging in after region of these trough ejections. It's amazing how important that is in the total morphology down stream.

man...overload of eye candy and talk-about cinema available across the pantheon of movie theaters this mid day. lol - this is awesome... That GGEM solution... really really needs to go on thru the next 18 hours. That is a crime letting that sucker stop on that frame. haha. That's heading for NESDIS rating of about a 20, on a scale of 1 to 6(?). You can see it at 500 mb, that jet max isn't even total, where the DPVA is located in the positive aspect of the trough... There are 125kt winds diving/rounding the base. The 500mb gradient over MIA is perfect.... lower than 582dm/light winds. Zip inhibition for digging, so ALL those wind momentum get conserved coming around, within the trough structure and no absorbed by the surrounding planetary medium. = DEATH. period, that is over the top like no one's business and is not some boner vision -that's what this model is doing... sorry. It is. The trough axis is shifting E while decelerating ...such that it's going to become something never seen before. Period. Gotta love the GGEM ( ) model.

K, little pop quiz see who can answer this correctly. what is the main perhaps telling and important difference in this solution as it pertains to the handling east of Chicago - and yes, ...this is bordering on a trick question to really test the knowledge.

Exotic blocking event ... to use George's vernacular, historic in nature. Whether we are destined to this becoming real or not, this type of extremness might be creating panoply of oddly handled (co-mingling) metrics? Like concurrent 531 dm, 5 contoured closed -4 SD ... 1978 beating 500 mb black hole, with saturated 850 mb temperatures that warm underneath. Wrong. First of all, that is almost thermodynamically impossible. The saturation vapor pressure of thickness that low won't allow a saturation in liquid form, so it makes it very dubious that the undercarriage could sustain that layer profile. The pseudo-adiabatic gradient would become too exotic to be supported.

That's utterly flawless aloft, that structure. Yeah, in more analytic terms ( I'm just yankin on the previous post...), it's very unlikely that the mid level heights would fall to that depth and we'd stay that wet. Didn't Chris just discuss the "intent" of this model's recent upgrade, to correct bloated QPF under snow columns? Hmm. Interesting. I almost wonder ... did they fix one thing by breaking something else. I remember that system in 2017 March, that had a problem with cold sector QPF being terribly managed with 39/31 in 3" total rain ... I recall a lot of anticipation that maybe a better wet bulb reality would make that more snow - what actually happened was 33/32 cat paws and cold rain, but still... it's not like this model has always had really good BL thermodynamics.

Oh m g ...I just saw that GFS serious.... ha HA hahhahahahaha God, that's beautiful. Three moderate ( if not more) nor'easters thrash the region in rain, during a -3 SD NAO. I'm a Science Fiction author, I'm writing my first 3 chapters of that story with that occurrence, as a kind of sneaking attribution case study for CC. You just create the fiction of it, and let the wise reader wonder if that's where you're going. muah hahahaha.

The cracks in the shovel full's would probably be the same color oh wait , is that rain? yikes

That's a delicious cinema though.... the 246 frame would probably arrest breathing. Boy, the need more hot dog venders in the modeling core to encourage letting these kind of movie reals go out further. HAHA

You're on point... The MJO's behavior is (likely) because it is/has been in destructive interference against the La Nina basin footprint. The La Nina has been remarkably well -coupled this autumn. Personally, ( full disclosure ) I was optimistic that would not be the case (the La Nina part of it). Ha. It would be more loosely coupled, which is not unprecedented over the last 10 years of varying ENSO states ( much to the chagrin of those that are heavily ENSO reliant). The recent decadal history of that was a hopeful trend that we would not have this longitudinal flow structure coming into western N/A. It wasn't just that ...there is a growing body of transition season behavioral evidence for seasonal lapsing. We have observed early/late cool snaps capably of harboring actual snow events, as early as Octobers and as late as Mays, going back to 2000. This has - more or less to be determined causally - been coinciding with the acceleration of climate changing during these last 20 years. Whether that is so or not, a statistical oddity in the least, but it also played into the idea above. If seasonal lapse was causing W/NE N/A ridging early, while (perhaps) La Nina were vague --> ..etc. Neither seemed to materialize per that hope - I mean... it wasn't an 'expectation,' it really was hoping. Ah well... There is a statistical bases for 'early performing' La Nina winters. It's perhaps related to the fact that ENSO signals tend to decouple more so during summers, for obvious reasons related to planetary relaxation of gradient turning off triggers/dispersion mechanics...etc. So that does provide a narrow window for late Novie to early Jan ... but it's not dependable. It's just adding a little. That's not doing too well either LOL.

It would be nice to see a -WPO ...yeah. Seeing as everything is W--> E ( ultimately) and not -NAO controlled. haha. But I've been watching the eastern Asian/west Pacific for signs of a -WPO to help transmit a AB signal down through the N. Pacific Basin and we're not getting it as of the last month. It's interesting (then) that we are still getting episodic -EPO's in the models because the WPO caries a positive correlation with the EPO. +WPO wouldn't infer. I'm wondering if we are actually verifying these -EPOs though? that's a good question. In the general sense of things ... a better Pacific would help matters for winter enthusiasts.

Rabbit hole of psychosis... haha

Can't have 'too much information' you can only have ( or not...) the ability to process it, both appropriately and responsibly - the rest is individual and/or group shenanigans.

a I'm not completely sold that the 9th .. 10th period - admittedly now just 6.5-ish days away and thus "outer medium range" - should be ignored for winter enthusiasm, if not more practical operational needs frankly. Here is the 06z mean, which en masse is an increased implication along a four consecutive cycles, with a classic W-smeared spread, within larger synoptic envelope that is pretty classic -NAO ...with large polar high parked quintessentially N-NE of Maine ... Farmer John's odds ... I'd place them around 30% ... 25, a non-zero but more importantly, elevating risk, if one chooses to use this GEFs means. More over, the behavior of the individual members still showing general poor handling of the NAO exertion of the local hemisphere. Predictive skill is fleeting. There's variety there, with a growing tendency ( also hinted now in the operational version) to even meld the 10th escape failure, into the latter 12.13 system arrival. That's creating a morass of possibilities there, ranging from a complete suppression, to a protracted light cooling QPF event that probably evolves into a winter profile. And all likely to be parsed into something more real/discrete only upon shorter terms. There's really very low actual deterministic value ...even as near as the D6 above... But I can tell you, it is not merely subjective ...rather is objective, that there are a large number of significant events in the catalogues that had a D6..7 synoptic structure and spread that looked like that above, and the westerly smear turned out to be telling. Also, this hearkens back to 5 days ago: the reasoning and advice then, that these "threats" would emerge in short order compared to either normal signals at range, or user preference ( haha, clearly on the latter, huh), ... really, none of that has changed, despite the range between the neg vs pos narratives owned by various posters. You don't know. you don't. Fwiw - the 17th has an impressive multi-cycle presentation, too. In fact, that's keeping with both the consensus for colder hemisphere deeper in the month, but also not a bad intuitive fit for the climate suggested gestation wrt the super synopsis when dealing with modestly elevating PNA's during either collapse or pulsed -NAOs.

The overt skeptical position sees theirs/the 50% on their side as an extraordinarily large value LOL just sayn' good luck.

This is a kind of 'personalism' but this is one of the "blue-bomb months" of the year. Granted, on the front side...but by the time 156 hours rolls around we're out around the 9th...which is getting into the sweet climo of whence marginal wet forecasts bust cotton balls. This can happen any point in autumn and spring, really... Seeing that cartoon layout with blue holes punched in it over western MA/E NY ...etc, is obviously there because it's "marginal" ... Two aspects: one, ... trending colder as the system nears was a bankable error correction up to about 15 years ago... Since, either model improvements, climate change, or both, seem seems to lend to less of that... That said, a -2 SD west limb NAO may tilt that the other way. So there's some speculation art here, too.

I've noticed that about the GFS. Whenever it cuts the low, the airmass ahead is colder, but erodes after a period of snow/sleet amounting to 1/2" mockery. When it collapses and respects the NAO hemisphere ...it's warm on the N side of the storm tracks. Seems the model has been parameterized ...not to snow like on purpose. hahaha joking-

No ... but it may not be right. There's a probability embedded in those regions/structures.

George ... I am going to do you a favor as a reward for having not used the word 'blizzard' over the span of your last 20 posts ... The storm loading pattern is from the Pacific. Not the block. The Pacific matters in fact entirely. Blocking is just an indication of where storms can't go, but it is in fact there because of the total circulation/wave mechanical forcing that is always vectored W--> E in the NH mid latitudes. Which means ... the Pacific ultimately caused the block. Just helping you understand the conceptualization of this stuff. There is no storm if the Pacific does not provide disturbances ( and by Pacific in this context, that means "from west to east" ). Also, the blocking episodes that do materialize can be too aggressive...and cause a larger scale destructive interference pattern, and so the Pacific can do it's part to deliver disturbances into eastern N/A ...but they get summarily damped out by compression and velocity surpluses ...which is a shearing factor. Not just about suppressing - the block is really only a favorable aspect within a narrower window than people probably are aware. Lakes cutters are less likely in the presence of a west limb -NAO...yes, that is true...but if the -NAO is decaying as a system is organizing, it may move in that direct.

Yes ...but a lot happens in that amount of time. It comes down to greater expectations for excitement when the ball is in play. NFL Football is also just one example... The NBA can't be ridiculed for the same product model. Baseball certainly can - it's taking hits in recent generation(s), too. Again, it was not about the sport in that missive? The satire was directed toward the cultural attention span. agreed though, all these products are over-sold. They could actually make all the money they need on other exposure methods. Jerseys and uniforms, side-line graphics, field paint. Other techniques to get it across anyway. It may be in the works... with the increased streaming tech infrastructure, the 'cable captive audience' model is slipping into history.