Typhoon Tip

I've lived in the region for 35 years give or take ... I'm inclined to agree that rarely do they bang their way in - just based upon anecdotal experience. However, there have been exceptions. One notable one ( Ryan out in CT has posted rad and write-ups about it) was a fascinating supercell that developed on the BD boundary out over western Mass.. It traversed over the Springfield area, with large hail, then continued to move almost due S bringing large hail accounts through the state of CT. Gulf balls accumulating in gutters to curb height - but I also write fiction as a hobby so that part may be embellished some LOL. I do specifically recall lots of damage reports to windows/automobiles, though. The hail was damaging. I remember the event vividly from afar. I was a student up at UML. We cased that out and got some lecture efforts out of the deal. I remember the radar of the time had DBZ's ... 75 or something like they turned the dish around and zapped its self. Huge returns... very deep in the atmosphere. 45+ K tops on the over shooting domes easily. That boundary cut off a high 90s heat chance for eastern areas, btw. I'm just musing the past occurrence here. I don't know what's going to take place tomorrow...probably just a conversion into low ceiling doom, with indoor lighting turning on by mid afternoon over eastern SNE.

Looks like it slams back screen doors, snapping flags and knocking 14 F off your temps in the first 1/2 hour of passage ~2 pm on Tuesday. ..Actually where you are it may be less pulsed or noticeable like that...but a ENE breeze over the canopy and noticeably cooler during that time frame, nonetheless. NYC by dusk.. Up here, we're done by 9 am ... Worcester by 10am. Wed morning, everyone dawns under slate gray Labradorian vomit in an unsettling 50s chill. But, you'll at least partially break out where you are circa late morning, and probably still make the low 70s that day. So not too bad. As for eastern SNE, they're persecuted until the mid week main frontal thrust just resets the whole mess and we start over, synoptically. That cinema or something similar is our regional destiny. Hell, if you look at the GGEM ? In principle, there's some semblance of a Miller B type low ... Blocking in eastern Canada, stops the Lakes low, and a portion of its mechanics shears off underneath, and a weakly responding low over upstate NY relocates/develops along and E of Long Island. That's Miller B... Acceptance of a stolen summer week and just setting sights on the longer range ... which ironically, looks uninspired and boring, is our reality. Anything else is fake news .

Get everybody out there for a wondrous spectacle of natures awe to at last gawk at their own deaths oops

Can you imagine if a dday meteor was hidden in the awe inspiring oohs and ahh … Then it’s like ooh ahh whoa oh ah um hey-uh SHIIIIIT !

That BD air mass is really shallow, too. It's looking like some kind of freak set up where even for BD physics, this thing may get all the way down to the Del Marva no more than 2,000 or even 1800' along a floor slab of air. Look at the pressure contours carefully and it can't even spill over the White Mountain cordillera - it's not even as deep as the mean altitude of the topographic divide. That's what the NAM doing anyway. It's possible this is trying to thin in the guidance... The Euro looks like it waits until 15z or even noon on Tuesday to really momentum the boundary through Worcester, continuing along a trend to slow it. It matters for convection and of course temperature distribution. It's also overrunning strobe lightning over NNE as the flow hooks rich heat over top/overrunning

Unstable hemispheric scale - We see there is a suspect TS astride the SE coast, otherwise, it's a four nodal trough/ridge arena over eastern Canada and the lower Maritime, which looks reasonably balanced... But, this massive L/W trough from the Date Line to California out over the Pacific punching into the Pac NW. It's unbalanced. There's more negative in the integral than positive, just eye-balling that is obvious. Things will necessarily balance better than that. Either the trough in the Pac weakens...or the ridging at mid latitudes balloons in the E. Could be a panel away from moving into that look, too

Man ... on the 1 to 10 UV index that's gotta be about an 11 out there

That is interesting... Like Chris' just said, convection passing SE through Maine and the BD fans back SW as it's leaving. Looking at the synoptics more discretely my self, it appears the BD's position in time - on this run anyway ... - is very sensitive to those convective responses/forcing actually taking place. There's actually two accelerations in the BD from convection. The first being the one he noted, but between 18 and 21 Z there appears to be another convection burst from mid Whites' to Coastal NH, and the outflow then nudges the boundary even further SW. That can all certainly happen in a vacuum of any other considerations, but ... those convective aspects have to verify. I was also looking at the LGA and ALB on the grids and those locatons are in the low to perhaps mid 90s while Boston is 54 F by 21z Tuesday on this NAM run. 40 to 45 F spreads is getting excessive even for a BD, this late in the year. I've seen that extremeness during April... It's almost June though.

I was wondering about maybe a 3 to 6am MCS, runnin' SE down the roller coaster. showers/storms maybe more organized, just not well handled in the runs - like. Eastern sections are doomed - maybe we can get some entertainment first.

Tomorrow may make 91. It's funny where we were with the modeling ideas for today and tomorrows, as stood 5 days ago. Especially the GFS, which had 50s in mist when not raining east wind shits. 52 92 That's why we always trust a 5 day depiction LOL BD still there but a bit less intrusive in recent runs. Unclear ... As I just mentioned to Saguaro, it's more apt to happen than not in a -NAO. But as is, the BD is delayed 6 to 9 hours, and, it also appears to wash out before even getting to NYC. hmm. Not sure I'd trust that if CT. If the -NAO is regime does pin a 50/50-like vortex ivo of NF, a boundary between continental heat ejected from the W will set up between. Experience alone teaches us that if see one on the map ice-bergs knock on the door in Atlantic Georgia. heh. If the new runs were to continue the back-off trend in an equal redraw, that keeps the boundary to about PWM or so and we swelter through Tuesday. I am not personally leaning that way

Right ( bold ..). And we're still getting inconsistencies in the position of the BD's movement over time. Latest guidance seems to backed off on that. Five days ago, the Euro had no clue that a BD would be there. None of them did. Then the GFS hinted ( uh oh...), four days ago but the Euro still carried a big heat signal with less of that... Three days ago they were all in, though, and the heat was completely redrawn... 97 to 57 style. Thing is, BD party pisser in the models is/was a correlative fit for -NAO ... ( I mentioned this in the presently marooned June thread that Jerry started). Then, these last two day, the models deepened the 50/50 vortex, pinning it in place ... A BD should really intrude. It's like 'why in f spend time on such minutia' ... I think being 92 versus 60 is pretty impressive correction to have to deterministically negotiate if one is a forecaster. Here we are two days ...those over-arcing themes are still in place, yet the Euro trends considerably less in both the 00z and 06z versions. The GFS too ...The GFS ... in a rare show of parity - For a forecaster .. it's a good thing this contention wasn't during today and tomorrow - lol.. Because the variation across the boundary could be as much as 54 at BVY, to 94 at EWR (Beverly Mass/N shore of Boston vs Newark, NJ). It would make a difference for yard and pool parties, huh

I'm with this guy at this point.. San Francisco Giants manager: ‘I don’t plan on coming out for the anthem going forward until I feel better about the direction of our country’

Snowing around Lake Winnipeg on June 2nd, GFS and GGEM. Huh. I don't think I've ever seen that. I'm not entirely sure what the climate for piece of shit weather is for that area of Manitoba, but that geography isn't hugely far N of the U.S. border in terms of Meterological scales, so I wonder.. This seasonal lag stuff due to velocity surplussing, and holding onto R-wave identities longer into the warm seasons... is a real thing. It's mechanizing weird cold plumes into mid latitudes that turn around to 90s. All you'd have to do is have that thing over western Ontario, and N VT upslopes snow.

You're going out of your way to spin/characterize them by using that turn of phrase - Again... it may have 'look like' that was the case, but that may not have been their intent.

Mmm ... I think the entire scenario is transcending frustration, no doubt. As the civility begins the insurmountable task of processing the boundless scale in atrocities of that godless day, ...shock will surely first fade to anger. And don't get us wrong, that anger is truly justified. It's righteous indignation then elevated to a state apoplectic rage, proportional to the crime - only this? Has not proportional anger. It even transcends that. But, the human condition needs targets to 'structure.' The structure alleviates. This is just the way people are. One does not have to be a psychologist to know this - just having suffered the vicissitudes of U.S. woes over the last 30 years is sufficient to see things in this way. Enters ...the blame game. It is probably too early in this crisis to take away people's target - particularly when that target gives that structure, which is the only avenue available right now that immediately, though falsely, ameliorates the boundless sorrow and vexation ... etc. The blaming is still 'group transference,' though. And, as is usually the case... it will carry on in a irreconcilable row, probably go to far ( prediction) - when the real target needs to be the societal norms and culture that enabled the happening in the first place. I know you didn't ask for any of this - I'm not intending to lecture or bloviate ...just op-ed here. The police/emergency responders initially may have made the wrong decision in how to handle the situation. But what was the right situation? Anyone blaming them for not "rushing" the assailant, initially, should realize that the first step in a hostage crisis or negotiation is to not pull the trigger of the assailant. Rushing doesn't end well. This situation is being exposed, on going ... What kind of weapon was the assailant using? If it was a semi-automatic rifle muted by a silencer tech, through the brick and steel of the edifice? Responders may not have known there was active discharges until it was too late. Later on...that might "look like" they let it happen by masses of people caught up in the rage and seeking targets to resent ... There's a lot of generalizations being sewn out of fragments of truth that may not really fully yet stitch the whole reality. I can imagine there are component threads that can be sewn to together to make them look like they sat by cowardly and "let" blood run to protect them selves - If time proves that is the case, it is what it is. But that strikes me as a bit over the top. In any given community or group, there's typically one or two of those self-preserving types that would fail that group of people - seldom do they ALL calculate like that. We would be talking about an entire retinue of responders deliberately avoiding the central tenet, to protect and to serve, doing so along the entire marshal ranks of command no less. Heh... I'm going to let time surface more truth and clarity. I don't mean to suggest the officers were not at fault - I'm just not ready to impugn the whole system of a social support over this just yet. That's a whole 'nother quasi anarchistic suggestion where people really don't want to go whether they realize that or not.

It is ... It's a specter portrayed, beginning about 3 days ago in the guidance, and since they've all agreed ...some more or less aggressively, that the previous big heat suggestion is getting completely obtruded by that aspect bullying in like cops showing up precisely 2 minutes before the party would have really gotten good. heh I am a little suspect of any solutions that 'hold it back' like a pregnant water balloon full of cold air and mank, tenuously unpopped, down into Essex Co in NE Mass. If it gets to that point it gets to TTN NJ

It actually looks like a below normal for couple of weeks of June is in route - Tanked AO typically doesn't matter so much by this point in the calendar year, but it is in this case it's markers are actually reaching down into the mid latitudes ...driving NAO bocking nodes ... Seems to overwhelm the -PNA. The models have just sort of given up on the Pacific and just given carte blanch to the idea of blocking demolishing warmth/suppressing below the 40th parallel. And the extended hemisphere doesn't appear to change that until the 10th of the month. If I saw these in January I'd be looking for a systemic correction event ... Obviously telecons don't correlate the same way in summer,. no. But, the ens ,means and oper versions, et al, are reflecting the exertion nonetheless. It's funny, ... a week ago we were panicking over a Mem Day butt bang, followed by a heat wave next week... Interesting how matters have morphed so precisely opposite. That BD looks like a 40 mph gusting trees swaying whip lash cold insert Tuesday. It may be 76 at 9 am, and 53 at 9 pm across eastern NE. And then the ridge decays and mooshes the heat south there after. The westerlies dip beneath ORD-BOS line and that's the ball game.

Members of Senate are blocking/filibustering legislation put forth by Democrats - ...and that's unfortunate, that word "democrats" Because this is not something that should be politicized - obviously to anyone on the intelligent side of sanity. But the "functioning psychosis" of what the system has become, is operatively guided by political boundaries; in obstructing passages based upon the origin/source of the legislation, rather than base upon the merits and virtue of what's contained in document, logically means they are preserving something else. Steve Kerr is right - the motivation for doing that is ultimately not to piss off the constituencies that put these turkeys into power. ...The filibuster antics are thus to preserve their seats. They need to be forced to give a semi-automatic rifle a blow job before they realize what their priorities should be, because to choose their seats over massacre, is tantamount to sociopathy - the sarcasm to suggest they will only be forced to change when it effects themselves, because that's how sociopaths operate. We're likely to witness the dissolution of the U.S. - or perhaps descent into civil duress or war, before guns would ever be gathered up and outright made illegal to commoners. However, the next better recourse would be to ratify universal background - within which criteria can be and would be fashioned to make it compulsory, mental states among other gems about an individual, designed to ferret out a person's true motivation, intent and purposes for seeking to own a guy.

I know - just heard. That is weirder for some reason than hearing about other celebs.

It's interesting ... if one is a tedious nerd ( lol ) ... No but it could be a 'warm continental look,' while not resulting that way over eastern NE - which doesn't take a lot of prose to explain how/why if one knows anything at all about this region's climate. 'Blah blah bd have you any wool' The problem emerged more so over the last 24 hours, so 4 cycles of models. The Euro and GGEM bit really hard on the BD idea in the 00z run. So much so that we actually would put together a negative high temp anomaly on Tuesday and Wednesday - complete 180 reversal. This is one those places in the world where late mid range model error can be so excessive as to be diametrical. I mean, two days ago, 95-100 near historic heat wave, poof! 55 F BD joy destroyer. I guess it's better than the 1980s, when it would happen on the day its self. I remember a couple of memorable BDs in mid to late 80s where the forecast was 90 the night before a day that wound up slate gray with cool passing mist. It used to be short duration error/correction - blind sided. At least now the tech is sophisticated enough to at least be sensitive to it at extended leads. The question is, how much or little in this situation. Thing is, I can see this going either direction - interestingly, the last 2 runs of the GFS have done just that. The 06z removed the BD entirely..The 12z brought it half way back. Which means it has had 100% in both directions in the last 24 hours worth of runs. My thing is the -NAO. 1 It's been progged in the various guiadance for some time. As is usually the case...it is stochastic within the frame-work of the daily model depictions. Whether the blocking is biased over the western domain, or east...matters. The east may allow the wave spacing room to pass the flow flatter off the Maritimes... But if it bumps west more, that probably parks 50/50 sort of aspect there and we'd be doomed to cool departures in a warm pattern. 2 The other aspect on that is, the -NAO is notoriously over-sold/constructed at this range... 3 ...Related to that, we are still seeing vestiges of a progressive pattern. It's why the closed low got abolished from the runs recently, transforming the outlook for Mem Day substantially improved. But that tendency doesn't really lend to NAO blocks. If #2 and #3 prevail, these recent BD/heat cancel ideas are model hoaxes and we roast.

Depending on how fast this circumstance translate through the area, these positive tilting/ albeit weakening total trough spaces can sometimes over produce - the synoptic signal gets surpassed by the convection rain rate ... at local scales. But the positive tilt of the trough, maybe some quasi training too. Anyway, nice cloud photogenic displays with crispy TCU. Like that! Saturday ...New England... Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints will likely yield 250-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon. A frontal segment will move east across the region during the afternoon and provide a focus for isolated-scattered thunderstorm development. A couple of locally intense multicells may yield wind damage or marginally severe hail for a few hours before diminishing.

When I think about this ... "radicalism" leaps to mind ... Example, it is really no different than 'radical Islamism' - if people need the awareness aid. To corrupt and manipulate the context, thus, evade the purpose of any formal scripture - be it holy or not, in this case Islamism and the Quran interpretation - in order to justify acts of immorality or psychosis, versus, manipulating the context of the 2nd Amendment of the constitution, in order to supply justification of what the 2nd Amendment NEVER INTENDED TO REALLY PROTECT, what's the f'ing difference? Orders of degree in egregiousness doesn't make it more or less right or wrong. Whether we corrupt the intents and purposes of the 2nd Amendment, to evade the immoral truth, people want to be able to SHOOT OTHER PEOPLE, or do so to topple the Towers of Babylon, 9/11, it's still corrupting the intents and purposes of scripture to supply some sort of pseudo frame-work, attempting to escape culpability. I just see a truism nested in the motivation for the manipulation in this case... call a f'ing spade a spade, might help clarify matters and what's really at stake: 'I want to be able to shoot people.' Otherwise, why own the gun. At the end of the day, their is an incontrovertible chain of logic that put the onus on the gun owner, logic that can only controverted if said chain of reasoning is evaded by pointing to the 2nd Amendment "debacle" ( not debate) - sort of like how Filibusters stone wall bill passing, but they are evading the moral red hand truth of it all. The only way else around that is to just admit one carries no moral restraint when it comes to shooting people. Just admit it. Because then there is no need for all the tactical evasion, that's all it is at the core. People want to retain the right to shoot people, without actually saying so... And are hiding behind the false dogma of the Constitutional scripture to protect a right they are completely falsely believing they have. Who would ever ratify the right to shoot someone - I mean, as a codified statute? ...c'mon. It's all laughable really. Our population has a selfish bias ... we don't think of things as a problem until the hurt us personally. This debacle has gone on long enough. Actually, that's probably actually humanity-scale thing LOL.... Shy of that exceptional awareness, it's all based on systemic delusion and lies ... turned over and tilled into generations, it is all but the mud in the bricks of institution.

That last example of that playing out was particularly frustrating ...but the frustration - for me - was really not the low level lag ... it was that WPC can't or don't and won't account for that some how, some way, in their surface synopsis. Like you intimated ...and they had the warm front up near Fryeburg Maine while Bedford Ma was still 68 with ESE flow. Fitchburg was 78 and BDL was 90 ... I mean it did flood through later in the day ( Saturday) but it took hours to get that lowest 2,000 feet really down to the Earth.

All three are bullying that look in as a party crash/new look ... we'll see. They seem to have opted to park a vortex near or SE of NF, which is a continuity break. But also causes that BD to get sent SW... We're talking about D6 so it could just be another peregrination to fend off. The N Atl. isn't the best modeled domain of the models.

It appears the GGEM and GFS favor a short total wave length ( i.e., the ridge is 'sharper' in the up down circuitous structure), as it centers over ~ eastern OH. The Euro was as amplified in the z-coordinate heights, but it was also not as short in that regard - fwiw. The new run is coming out now, so we'll see. The GFS has been fighting this next ridge/heat surge... But the former two are MCS tracking/favoring. They also would not likely allow uninterrupted heat- they both outright show a Tuesday am screen door slamming flag whipping backdoor blast. Whether that happens or not... that's what they are showing. Tuesday afternoon has most of eastern NE with temps down into the 50s before dark, and probably slate skies have slabbed in from the NE in those depictions/handling. It's suspicious that immediately the following afternoon, it's rolled back out and flooded the region back close to 90. That's atypically too fast. But ...it's all moot if the synoptic wave lengths are being erroneously shortened -a flatter ridge orientation wouldn't allow any of that to begin with.