Typhoon Tip

This weekend is also really trending as tho it was heavily a magnification fantasy …seeing some minoring perturbation through the “model horizon lensing” I mean normally we can assume some 20 or 30% over sell but geesh. Some of these trends are really extrapolating toward less. I think it’s a flat NJ model type low. Warm version for now ..

Just a muse... but, seems the -EPO switch a couple weeks back, combined with that minoring 'practice event' ..et al, sort of got the "group mood" into the winter disco mode. In the groove so to speak. Then, right during the syncopation of that music comes a few distancing model runs ...like the those GFSies, with cinema starring long duration ice/snow and a cold loaded system... That was rotten thing to do. Haha, it was like a joke - one that would work particularly well on this group of proven users. HAHAHA. wah wah waaaah. This system this weekend, however, looks pretty typical, a normal November maintenance/pedestrian at this time. November is heartache month... The upshot for winter enthusiasts is that we still have ... 3 months coming with better odds/climo so it's no real loss. But relative to this particular time period, it may have been cunningly deceptively designed for an easy audience.

On the road for the holiday... The 'Miami Rule' is in full effect this week. It's a standard measure/observation I've made over many years regarding the heights and the balanced geostrophic wind prior to the arrival of amplifying waves through ~ 100 .. 110 W over the mid latitudes. What happens is, the southern aspects of the trough exit region/jets enter into a negative feedback, because as the height falls approach ~ western TV ... against heights positive height anomalies - sometimes insidious in the latter sense, because the anomaly can be positive relative to the hemispheric footprint, which doesn't necessarily register as above normal in the scalar sense, in itself. These terminologies make all this sound more complex than it really is... but there's not a lot of other ways to describe this shit... lol..

Heh. I see a month way above normal so far. Lol.

That and ... the vast continuity blow up is clue there lol. That said, I don't believe an inland solution ( ORD to Ontario...) is really favored or very well physically supported by the synoptic footprint during that period - not that you or anyone has asked me for my op on that. Still ... I said a couple days ago that a flatter open wave ( potency to be determined...) is favored, which would more likely lead to a NJ model cyclogen type of scenario. I thought as awkward as the continuity shift was ( and the details contained ) wrt to the Euro solution ...it was a nod at trying to go more that route ...like a gross attempt. The GFS at 06z really did go that way almost entirely, though it is more toward the 28th.

I’ve been largely discounting the oper GFS’ last ~3 cycles.

I'm not sure there was ever a Tday threat ? ...I think you mean that period in general - okay: but... caution that the event of interest is/was 26th... and fair enough to say 26-28th. That's still 9+ days away - we haven't really passed inside of "model climate" predictive skill horizon at that range - things tend to start coalescing ... albeit subtly at about 6.5... I think if the western ridge is proven more progressive, we can materialize the present D9 entire evolution more CFS' last two cycle blend. The trouble ... I don't like that approach just yet, because it's committing to more east coastal implications, while anchoring the western ridge near the Great Basin - that's an interesting choice for a forecast model that actually has "climate" in it's formulated title... but we'll see. I also think that the Canadian canvas is hugely available for modeling corrections... I mean the Euros nebular April looking noodles up there at D10 isn't impossible, but is less fitting climate than even the CFS coastal idea. That's a fun solution by the way... I don't have a lot experience with the CFS...I check for fun and boredom cleansing ... heh, now is one of those times I guess. But seeing as it's out there at 192 to 228 hours and not out there at 750 hour ( haha), it is what it is.

I'm not sure how to interpret that personally ... I "think" it may be suggestive of a 'transitory pattern' ? - which is oxymoron, because patterns cannot be defined when the system is in a state of change ...but you know what mean lol. Anyway, that could be perceived as an emerging +PNA ... There's already a vestige "+PNAP" in that image, though it's crowding E of Chicago for taste... But the Date Line positive anomaly is a huge wild card...If that presses east/proves progressive, this whole look would likely mirror in two days and -PNAP takes over. I could see that going either way. The trouble in deciding which extrapolation is the overall "flat" construct - we are out there in the 360 hour range... a lot of that is likely just typical chaos means getting more entropic, so yeah.

the only problem I see with the day's meme re the Euro is that the Euro verified very well recently wrt that total circuitous curve migration there, spanning the last couple of weeks. So... past performance doesn't guarantee future accuracy? no - buuut, in this case, having the model's recent performance verification also "fit" the La Nina circulation footprint so well ...doesn't lend to assuming this next wave pulse will do anything very different than destructively decay around that same region prior to moving out of the marine continent. Some skill in seeing at least a modeled W pac typhoon migration tends to also precede the MJO if it is going to be successful in doing so.. It's a probably more of a fuzzy correlation, but the tropical W pac has almost zip anvil debris N-E of Guam for a reason. It'll be interesting to follow... it's always interesting to test assumptions - part of the science of the thing.

The analogy tactic is an effective means. I like that particular design lol I did say, “unless there are very certain/specific metrical observations ongoing ..” that’s saying the same thing re getting all the “100 variables” in line. My intended take away there, is that it’s not a silver bullet big winter salvation. Specifically as it relates to those very high altitude “edge of space” mass regions and their perturbations … A planetary wave decay/intrusion taking place in the 30 or 50 mb levels underneath completely supplants any 10mb morphology. Etc. Agreed.

There’s definitely troughing amplifying over east continental mid latitudes approaching the holiday weekend in both ensemble families. In fact the EPS shows a fairly robust + PNAP flow structure (as does the GEFs) pulsing in and out of existence thru that weekend. And given that’s going to be a transitional scenario… the models are not likely seeing enough of the “real” structures through the fog of uncertainty there. They have to get the pacific to North American interval correct because how the date line to California flow situates more precisely being accurate, that goes along way in determining the amp downstream over Chicago to Boston The operational runs, vacillating between a blown up ravioli or more stem wound low going to Detroit… all those solutions are within the envelope of possibilities associated with what the ensembles still canvas. Something should be there unless the PNAP evolution mentioned above doesn’t occur or pancaked. I also see things in the basal flow foot that are negative interference. Unless those modulate (which there is still time ) we may not be leaning toward a very deep, cold coastal low. At this time it looks like this should correct towards a flatter open wave during that period… That opens the opportunity for something more narrow in latitude …maybe along the lines of a New Jersey model low. Subject to change.

That may actually be a quasi “arctic low” - it’s a bit sub-scaled but it appears suspiciously born of similar environmental conditions The GFS had one modeled down the eastern shore of JB a couple runs ago.

Period! Ive been talking about amplitude magnification in that range as a systemic bias by not just the GFS but all of them, for years in this forum - tho they likely arrive upon the bias by different means and causes. anyway … I suspect it’s a sentiment that has difficulty getting across because acknowledgement means that any along the way of the coveted D9er dystopian dreams might be nightmarishly less awesome. Lol Tricky tho. Giant bombs still happen… replete with their various assortment of reasons for histrionic excitement. I just find it interesting that we haven’t had a 1982, … 92, 78, 93, or 1888 in this era of model ability to sniff up wind storm odors with so much sensitivity. But irrespective of bombs .. seems everything is magnified. Lighter affairs are middling … middling portrayed as majors. etc. Even heat in the summers corrects down. It’s coherent. I pretty much go ahead and assume everything I’m looking at in the D 6-11 range that has ‘neato’ quotient is coming into D 4 some 20 .. 30% of pimpage taken back. I suspect what you’re seeing out there in the m e range is related.

Ho man. Just looked at the NAM grid. 60 consecutive hours day and night of static cold. 38/22 until further notice. Boring really

The continuity between these GFS runs is nothing short of extraordinary

It actually didn’t look like the GFS really was that much colder in the larger synoptic base, either. So what it’s really doing is it just has an exceptionally dense b clinic interface extending between Michigan in Central New England and the problem is is that once you lobe that kind of air mass around those green and white mountains it’s going to come all the way down to New Jersey. …and that’s why we get that look in there. But if one steps back from orbit that’s really still a warm sort of layout …and I know it sounds like it’s paradoxic. it’s just how our local Geo physical features kind of give us an advantage when it comes to tucking. Play this case of GFS is tucking a paste air mass. And it really is something how different that is between central New Jersey and Worcester Massachusetts 18z of the 25th.

32/30 mod uniform small particle snow. 1/2” on car and hand rails with whitening in yards. Noticing a large area of 30 and 31 home station readings showing up W-S of here. Another inch of this then glaze would verify an advisory. We’ll see

Snow is commenced here at this end if Rt 2 up here in northern Middlesex county 34/27 Sn type is very very small and uniform

Just from an orbital perspective … it would be unlikely from this starting calendar time to sustain. Having said that … there’s been vacillating going on in that time range beyond Thanksgiving … which is fine and normal but … there are numerical telecons that favor colder looks. Modestly more confidence falls in that court.

Sorry “hygroscopic” It’s a process of moisture mixing with dry air as it is used in Met parlance. Thermodynamically… that takes energy which lowers the temperature. Wet bulbing

Yeah that’s why I call this a mini bust… I mean it’s going to flip over I still think there’s a period of ice where it gets of evap cooling interior. Secondary going south is pretty much guarantees a low 30s show

I argue that the Nam has a Northwest biased much of the time so it’s the apt model that picks up a warm solution when it happens because it happen to be Northwest - that’s what I’m saying it’s right for the wrong reasons? I’ve always thought so and today? Yeah I kind of agree with you anyway I don’t even know if today really qualifies. This is so far a little mini positive bust based on guidance probably underestimating the cold air for some reason. We’re also doing some hydroscopic feedback

It doesn’t though… And I can explain why it only seems that way but nobody really wants to listen or gonna care

I was getting sick of hearing about the NAM-superior warm tongue theory …thank God the other shoe fell

Beautiful vantage !