Typhoon Tip

there it is... the Euro limits the warm up to just one day.

by the way ... i f'n covid so if i sound in posts like i hate you i do... just so we understand each other.

No what's likely to happen is countless nights at 78 F with highs muted by theta-e ... So yeah, you get the 'hottest summer on record' barely above 92

Also, Monday could be a gem day. Even though those annoying blue lines on the hydrostatic charts are still meandering thru... it's like Scott said a couple weeks ago. At this time of year, we can push 62 under 534 thickness when under an unabated sun that's just dumping rads into the environment. With wind veering west during the day, likely goes above MOS which is 59 at KFIT/KASH/KBED already. Still not convinced we get through mid week unscathed by BD. That flow is unconvincingly otherwise. The ridge is likely real ..but it's too pancaked. And the non-hydrostatic heights are not exceptionally tall... The flow is fast over top and just begging for a confluence to ripple through Ontario. Last couple runs of GFS/Euro are benefiting from merely not seeing anything there but that's real precarious. I've seen this too many times in the past, and the warmest day ends up being like Monday, and then Tuesday gets interrupted... Then when it was originally supposed to really get warm on Wednesday, 42 from NYC up drinking a big cup of bust "whine".

There's shrubbery and lawn already but next week ... barring a BD inclusion, would likely really accelerate the green-up progress.

Nice 16 bump over climo at the end of the MEX machine #s is pretty impressive ... KFIT GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/06/2022 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08| SAT 09| SUN 10| MON 11| TUE 12| WED 13 CLIMO X/N 53| 38 55| 40 57| 43 56| 37 56| 34 59| 36 65| 49 70 33 54

It's true there is circumstantially some built in variance that makes it nastier back this way than where you are, but this early in the season ( April's) ? - you will get hammered with 42 F NE cold drill this early. So it's 38 here and 42 there... Point being, it's too earlier to count on your geographic region to be 'protecting you' ... You'll need to give it another month, and then that will pay dividends/more like to help out. By the way, fairly large correction on this 18z GFS back toward more height falls in the SW lending to a more robust ridge/longevity in the east. The sfc featuring also much less BD saddled. It may not be right, just as much as the 12z brutal cold layout - which was true for everybody on that run, btw - may not be right, but I think it stands out as model instability. We are talking D6 - 10 for that warm spell - whatever comes of it... That's plenty of time to afix it one way or the other. Again...just reporting the better interpretation of the guidance just scene - not intending to use out of hand.

Don't panic Kevin... we're not saying "they are going to get that right" - we're just being honest about what they are indicating at this time. It's called actual Meteorological analysis - just fyi ... And that unfortunately, BD butt banging actually has a column in database tables at CPC. The column headers literally say,... "heating deg day | cooling deg day | daily anomaly | day high | day low | butt banged | ...." etc That said, you're characterization of 'how these typically end up' is laughably spun to the point of divorced from reality if/when thinking that is true in the month of f'n April. I'd give that to you from May 20th and onward, but BD climo is importing air masses off obscenely cold oceanic waters, and lingering snow pack over eastern Canada... I realize you just don't like them and it goes against the desired narrative, but it is what it is...

Looks to me like the 12z GFS is buckin' for a complete exclusion from that warm up next week at all at this point. Slams a violent BD/n-door front thru so aggressively that it pinches the warm south right under that ridge. Main front comes thru a day and a half later and we're still frosting at night. Welcome to April - you were warned

The other aspect I am noticing is ...well two-fold. One, this has moved up in time. It's not been temporal-stable in the guidance. It was supposed to be ~ the 15th through the 20th ( the end uncertain...)... Now it's more like the 13th through the 16th - so it has also shrunk. This overall trend to me suggests the models are attempting to morph this into just a warm sector given time. It is all still 7+ days away... Two, the models are also speeding up the hemisphere a little bit. Not as much so as January, no, but as that extended range has come from D11-15 to D7 to 11 ... the flow is trying to add progressive behavior. That's probably why this has moved closer in time by a couple three days, but it tells me that we are not really ready to surge out of winter into a deep spring - I was thinking that may occur with this thing, but my confidence on that being the case is a bit rattled based on these observations. Again...it's a week+ away ... The the models will wax and wane in allowing seasonality into the runs.

06z GFS might be a little less coherent with BDFs but ... again, our climate begs the caveat emptor - man... you assume any 70 to 80 ridge housing opportunity ends up not an opportunity, excluding everywhere NE of NYC( and no snow either. give that up).

I credit the state of the art of the technology in modeling to be so petty detailed in mangling the surface PP around BD presentation from 7 days away the way all models are for next week's warm head "fake" - we'll see on the later. That's pretty good. When I was coming of Met age in the 1990's, ...no model had much of any clue about those sort of no warm or fun for you features at all. They only saw the larger synoptic ridge.

Whatever ...stop trying set the table, dude. If a BD comes through, it's 42 and slate gray skies clear to NYC. LOL c'mon man.

Having said that... May 2005 is still the worst month that has ever happened in the space-time continuum existence of this planet. Ironically... no April has ever been that bad.

Yeah... who was I mentioning this too - can't remember. But there's probably like 1::12 or 1::9 type of return rate on median passable Aprils, otherwise, the more common rendition falls beneath whatever 'median' is in this context - so some subjectivity to that. I don't think 3 days nicking 70, while the other 20 some odd days are < 60 ... ass loads of cold rain... NE wind days ... putrid car top slush, saves any face for example. I've just been wilted too many times. I'm not going to stick the flower of optimism out there ever again for this piece of shit climate anus that seems to shit in your bed in direct deliberate proportion to said optimism. Like I said last page or two ago, you count on the BDF screwing it up, whether it is on the model or not, in a scenario like that next week. Then, it's a daily elimination game to remove having one occur, day by day.

Mm... there's personal preference to that statement - it doesn't apply to all. I've seen open cobalt blue skies at 44 F with strong NE wind on the coast ... in MAY - if it can suck donkey ballz that big in May, April is definitely a piece of shit in the sun sometimes. Just sayn' ...I admit today is a beaut, and tomorrow likely too - but these are not really 'normal' in this particular calendar space. Speaking of which ... next Tuesday on the Euro and GGEM looks like utopia on tap.

Dooring is unfortunately always part of any extended probability at this time of year. You almost assume there will be one, and really it is a matter of eliminating the probability ... day by day -

Tomorrow and Tuesday are likely to be dandy days. Light offshore oriented flow, combining d-slope with April sun would salvage the mid 40s for that matter, but here? - we're talking 55 to 60 anyway. MET MOS is 55-ish at KFIT/KASH/KBED for tomorrow and at least that high to 59 for Tuesday. It'll feel warmer than it is with that searing higher sun's zenith just dumping radiation into the environment with shimmering vantages and wafting micro-parcels of super adiabatic warmth. Basically, nape soothing on 'roids. It sucks not getting that weather today, but knowing of April's climate prison, we take whatever paroles we are offered and go with it. Still liking/eying the mid month for warm anomaly. How much so cannot be ascertained at this range.. but, personally I suspect the 'correction vector' is pointed toward warmer than the operational runs. Significant cratering of the PNA index mean that is coherently visible in the synoptic/spatial layout of both the EPS and GFS ... usually with that kind of weightiness the operational runs will shed noise as the time gets closer and thus allows the signal to finally punch through in the deterministic solutions. It's 10 days ... maybe transition starts around D 8... It's kind of like the trying the pull a winter storm out of the modeling ether, only here... we're trying to find heat domes - the most fragile of them all. This signal has been persistent, fwiw -

Just sayn' ... today's solar incidence is about equivalent to Sep 8 .. 7

If the pattern successfully flips warm between the 10th and 13ths and lasts indeterminately in mild to warm form, from mid month and beyond, it will NOT be because "April is fine" I mean, how much f'n abuse does a person have to keep taking over the span of life before they stop pretending bullshit. It will be because it is an anomaly relative to the obvious, inarguable truth about the climatology of April in New England.

Yeah the operational model versions have all trended - GGEM a little lagging ... - toward the erstwhile numerical teleconnections. I posted my annoyance over the fact that they previously were not. ... I suspect the undulant trough trying to exit the EC is still too deep, though. It's a minor aspect to the total manifold, which is a pretty starkly contrasting warm pattern - I real seasonal 'stage' in the climb out. It seems there really is nothing after mid month to suggest we get another frost/freeze supporting air mass. That doesn't mean we won't piss shit the dailies with cut-off through mid May ... but in so far as 'annoying cold,' it would appear that after this week's nastiness ... everywhere east of the Rockies and S of ~ 50 or even 60 N has 550+ hydrostatic heights and bottom latitude +PP ... which means west wind. We warm - ...agree with Scott ... 12th but again, if the models are holding on to the trough too long over next weekend, we may blur the transition in sun made days.

Indexes say we bust into an open warm continent mid month ... 'mentioned this the other day. Operational versions don't wanna bite. Particularly the GFS - jesus. But I've bitched about this model in the past, amply .. and how it holds onto blue hydrostatic heights and winter, in any range beyond D 7, usually until the 4th of July ...at which time it gives us 10 days of summer, before it starts bringing frost and grauple air masses across the Lakes to the 300+ hour runs. Sarcasm aside... either the operational runs will start to cave, or the telecons will modulate away from a neutral NAO/-PNA

You should have that be "The collective forum user" vs "Snow chances" in the winter, and "The collective forum user" vs "Convection chances" in the summer.

I wonder ... were those more nocturnally owned? I physically recall both 2010 and in particular, 2012 as being warm to touch ... This year did not seem that way to me. I'm not not sure what my own perception problem is with this, but it didn't feel above normal. Now, in fairness to 2012, ...that March was like "climate freak" above normal. Being +8 to +14 is some kind of New England version of Pac NW only in March ( so as usually ...we experience our "extraordinary" heat while no one is looking) ... What is it about this region - everything's gotta be under the radar, or while no one's looking. I want a 10 day mustard bomb heat wave for f sake! From my A.C. protected enclave... I want to "experience" the 4 middle days = 105/79, 107/84, 109/86, 106/87 followed by a BD that tanks the temp to 91 because it's so ridiculous the Earth just radiatively saturates the BD air... Then it can 90, 90 ...84 ... Seriously though... I question whether the sun at this latitude can do that with the bottom of the boundary layer dropping out east of the els... It's like it has to input so much energy, and with DP ... it may be geological limitation ? interesting...

It’s weird yeah. I mean the last three days were no side of green up weather conditions … although the suns bright. Yet the red maples up this way are budding.