Typhoon Tip

Lol but actually … if it snows prodigiously enough east of ~ HFD-ASH line the original assessment would have been off altho … I was pointing out that an eastward adjustment would not be altogether unexpected. Also … moderate vs minor vs major. Heh. Subjective. To me 10 inches is moderate and I don’t think we’re getting 10 inches because if we do it’s gonna be 8::3 1QPF hahaha would be almost 2 inches lol. actually … Ha. We could be trending towards CCB strike over the eastern part of the AFD In which case… we bring the 850 therm down to the surface and we end up with an iso thermal -1 Celsius …even get blowing snow off the eaves as a wtf’er event

For winter storm enthusiast you just need to get that thing under Long Island as opposed to curling up thru Pennsylvania a New York state I mean we’re in signal recognition mode but in so far as what the model run looks like there with that Canadian…. The shortest avenue to doing that would be having the western ridge push into into the High Plains as that mass of mechanics gets ejected east. The other way might be to exert more negative NAO in which case we start the Minnesota squeeze antics again.

Even down here this could have a really interesting vertical snow gradient between 200 foot elevations and 6 or 700 feet. i’m here in the Nashoba Valley area. I think Townhall sets at 196 feet above sea level. God forbid there should ever be a Canary Island bifurcation event ‘cause the tsunami might do a Deep Impact up the Merrimack into this region … Cross that bridge lol. No but I wouldn’t be surprised if nearby FIT, 8 miles as the crow flies, is into heavy parachutes in the 600’ hills while we have cat paws here at townHall

Ha … No I’m battling with my phone’s unrelenting attempt to turn whatever I write into utter twaddle that’s unintelligible ..,while sitting in a droning code meeting that I struggle to find so much as a modicum of passion for

So long as the 700 mb… and probably 850 as well, stay below Worcester to Logan axis this scenario has probably got about the best shot at a marginality surprise/blue snow event as can be set up around here. classic December of lore… Really. Now whether that happens or not comes down to I don’t know micro scale permutations that can’t really be predicted or seen. probably not a total analog? but I do agree that the first of the duel events in 1996 reminds me of this. I remember when that thing flipped over to aggregates I was between Acton and UML making the commute back up to school when that happening and I never saw the roads deteriorate so fast. Shows when you’re raining at sultry mid 30s how cold surfaces are. Right as the rain flipped to cotten balls … everything was white and there were slush ruts on the roadway sfc very quickly

Yeah… In the end the moral to this fable could turn out to be ‘don’t mess with marginality in a negative NAO’

That endgame look actually materialized in the recent GFS solutions too …Just pointing that out to the general audience. I mentioned it late last night that 0ZGFS was stalling the low at moderate depth east of Cape Ann and the CCB was into NE MA, southeast New Hampshire and coastal Maine during the overnight

There’s no accounting for stretched x-coordinate/fast hemisphere in the extended model behavior. I mean it’s something they tend to correct away from out in time, but then have to add back. That’s why I was coveting optimism actually when I saw that huge warm bulge in south eastern Canada in recent Euros - first thing I thought of is that warm ball will likely end up above 600mbs as an NAO block… Now I don’t know if that’s actually going to happen? But it more than merely seems that everything ends up correcting some 1500 km east in the atmospheric logistics moving D 11+ to D 4..5

In my old days at eastern I’d have threaded this a heart beat by now but … with this more moderate ordeal in the foreground -

Perfectly phrased ^

Nice reference there … Something big is out there. For now, that is all. It could ORD … it could be BOS … it could in between. But these members are some sort of exotically powerful and large -most likely would require a multi faceted risk profile/spectrum event. Model mag would tone it down to just a major ordeal. Gotta assume that, and also allow for this to emerge in general. But the signals itself is about as robust as is possible

Obscenely loud signal between the the 20th and Xmas. Some if these individual GEF members are quite extraordinary.

It actually trended pretty significantly westbbetween 84 and 96 hours… Seems to stall there and it really pummels northeastern mass coastal New Hampshire and coastal Maine pretty good, comma head

It actually flips a lot of us over to a period of moderate snow in the latter half of the storm as the CCB lingers in the area coming in there

Yeah it’s sarcasm

About the same as previous. It’s not interested in deviating from a track just S if LI. Looks like a 4-6” of wet snow in the deep interior as a low risk correction.

There’s reasons to believe it’s more right. I’ve outlined those … it seems people sans anything other than the worst possible model cinema. Lol

Despite all the smaller incremental trends … one run wipes it all out. It’s an odd circumstance to have big cold vortex parked over the lower Maritime, with -NAO block over Baffin Island and have the Great Lakes control everything. Interesting. Guess no one trusts the GFS huh

I know who it is but I’m not gonna fix what this phone does on the couch

Wave length is longer than best fit there … but, you know I just got done talking about a faster flow lending to x-coordinate extension. Who knows. I tell you tho, the numerical Tele connector/PNA really likes that time from 20th+. It’s got a pretty clear Archibald recovery signal there with an actual mode change as opposed to just rising

Fair enough but try to make it funny then lol

What would you be holding him to? That structure is unlikely...so there's no purpose are method for testing whether it would rain or not - so it's good that you won't hold him to it.

Yeah six/dozen or half of another ... It's a fence enough look

Dilemma ... It's both true. The bold, and that fact that it has 300 years of climate backed inference to suggest a cyclone should not move headlong into a -NAO blocking with being shunted E.

See I kinda lean the other way, ...I'd call it a cutter pattern with the possibility of stretching the field ..which can lead to fun shit that way. But the -EPO look with limited counterbalancing -NAO ( this time around...) and a "La Nina -based +PNA" wants to dump chunk troughing into 100W which...as we know, would put ST L to Michigan in the telecon cross hairs. The difference that "might" be useful to winter enthusiasts back east is that the flow probably resumes a faster base-line state... That has a tendency to fiddle with wave lengths in interesting ways as much as it can be hostile - either direction. There's a loud signal in the 20-24th period... Let's see how it starts emerge in the deterministics.... Heh, it's not that long away. 7 days it's the 20th..