Typhoon Tip

Oh man ... seems like that' gotta be physically impossible

We had flurries in early May last year ...busted virga CU in CAA type... Then that decayed into a weird 70/29 type air mass with huge diurnals for a week. It felt to me like last spring may not have been "as" bad as those others you listed, but it was just smaller piece of CC -caused seasonal lag shit. Frankly, next week's -20 shot is that too - whether it happens or not. ...have that in the area in early April is part of the same mechanism.

You likely were not around there in '98/January, but there was a big ice storm all over QUE/NNE ... I wonder how that area did in that.

Eh I don’t got a problem with warm enthusiast per se. In fact I’ve been done winter for a couple full weeks at this point. I’m probably more in that camp at this point. I was telling the truth though. That 850 as the GFS has the other metrics isn’t warm. And you bunned the truth … sorry

honestly... using a '240' hour chart to elucidate a warm point in f'um march is the bun-able offense. Not the person correcting the user. lord

Nah...wet and windy under that 850 ... not as warm as that one metric implies

I know ...one's cold with implied coastal bomb chances while the other is only cool and shitty

yeah... more than less intimated the same, it could all just be amplified aloft and not do much below. The 12z Euro loses the idea around D7 ...sells reposition of new suggestion out there at D10. Kick the can...

It's aight - This message ^^ above is more lucid and intelligent. But the previous exchange(s) were intended for constructively informing you, you are slipping from the central voice in here - in hopes to elicit some sort of awareness on your part. It was not abundantly clear you understood the ramification/connection of the dots on that stuff. This above shows you understand - good. Start with adjective herding... don't use the word blizzard - Listen, there's a short list of verified blizzard condition events, per year, spread out over the entire country. Any one given location has a very low probability of ever seeing one in a given winter. That should/could suggest how often it is really "utilitous" to refer to any given mid or extended range event as a blizzard. Almost never... If you disclaimer your self as an artist or story teller of sorts...that's entirely fine - in fact, you have a native flare there ( perhaps). But when one drops these a-bomb dystopic thrill seeking winter nuke posts, that just don't really follow from or match, as though to be taken seriously, that doesn't leave folks much to go with.

The best that I can tell ... from that particular source there is almost 0 filtration through Meteorological machinery in the formulation of post content. There's some vague toe-hold on reality, only for the that the user starts with a chart, but from there....? It's really like sitting through a Looney Tunes day dream of "Ralph Phillips" Eventually ...if this has not already begun to happen, this individual will start getting ignored altogether if he doesn't modulate his tact ... I tried constructively to warn him of that destiny, yet he replied with post like, "Yeeeeeah I don't think that's gonna happen" I don't know what you call that. "Pull the gun out of your mouth or you might blow your head off" --> "yeeeeah I don't think that's gonna happen." It is what it is

Looks the same as it did yesterday when I brought this up ... ... an emerging signal for amplitude now ~ day 6 - 8.5, but the last 24 hours of runs haven't provided much confidence in what that will be. It may only express aloft. I was looking at the individual members of the GEFs and about half have some impressive evolutions at 500 mb, from the MA to off the NE coast ...roughly D7 .. 7.5, but then you go look at the sfc? garbage - Still appears destructive interference is going on out there ... which may or may not limit this potential. The big bag of trough garbage in the mid range that wobbles and contorts its way through the east does two things: one...it normalizes the thermodynamic gradient but perhaps more importantly, the wave space between its aft/exit aspect wrt to the amplitude diving in, is too short. Because of that, the wave coming in can't pop crucial lead roll-out ridging, such that would feed back ...slow down, situate/cross up jet axis ... blah blah big storm. The GGEM nicely exemplifies this type of 'starvation' result. It slowly deepens a middling low over 18 hours. It has spring snow in mid level forcing... All this could modulate more developed, but the total wave spacing needs to either open up ...or less emphasis in general in handling the mid range ...such that it doesn't evacuate ambient baroclinicity and/or back-impose wave spacing contention.

It looks to me like we have an emerging signal from the mid Atlantic to coastal New England, ~ D7.5 thru 9.5, but of what? There is likely to be L/W amplitude positioning thru the eastern continent during the time frame; that much is actually above confidence for me. But there is all kind of destructive interference ...that really begins much sooner in the individuals operational versions, and blends of all. The trouble is, the models are bunching a lot of noise on the front side of that more important period of time. The D4.5 - 6.5 period features a sort of typical spring climate, half commitment bag of trough that in itself is tussling with internal mechanics. That whole mess then advects stage right, cleansing away the thermodynamics Better player mechanics then arrive into a dearth of baroclinic instability ... ends up less. Not for not, ~ 1/3 of the GEF individual ( 00z ) members, manage to engineer at least a middling low that strafes the MA to NE region thru the above time range - slow mover. Spring blue judging by the marginal appeal/540 < hydrostatic height coverage while that is happening. The others don't do this/ keep destructively interfering.

IMHO the NAO might be partial but the mor important change is the PNA bouncing around positive every three to five days aft of the recent -EPO that’s long gone, but residually, having loaded cold in Canada, this could lead to trouble That could mean bowling trouble … pretty much hitting climo too. 18z almost parroted the 12z Euro in the fantasy range … Not a testament to possibility … yet, but a testament to the vulnerability in the physics right now for these possible deep pinch lows

O K out of no where … 1 pandemic 2 nearly avoiding a nuke exchange 3 then a biblical cap failure sends a 20 foot sea level rise all over the world only that tsunamis doesn’t wash back … bring in the locusts I guess

That‘s that gust of it yup.

You know what that is... ...that is merely missing a S. stream zygote disturbance to fertilize, because if it had that... it would be historically competing with 1888

Now this is a bowling ball !

Here's what's going to happen... The broken line of convection will orient into a linear feature and propagate into western zones later this evening, pushing an outflow out ahead ...and that will scour out this shit ...or perhaps even ride over the top... but it will at least assist in doing so... Then, as the main cold front comes in the aft, it the brief gradient packing ahead will do the rest and there will be a mix-down T spike like 5 minutes before the front goes through neighborhoods ... .... at which time Kevin will either be already asleep, or ... posting how the models were right about the warm front busting in to NE Mass.

despite your narrative on the day's proceedings... the boundary has not appreciably retreated back N as a warm front - sorry if reality and empirical data doesn't fit. Don't blame the messenger. I mean ..there might be some mixing along that leading edge there on the right panel ...but that is not attributed to warm fronting. The winds have to go essentially calm where you see the wind is not calm and blowing from the NE with those wind flags - Can't help you. This probably does break down as the main front tied into the baroclinic axis is moving through... You'll get a 10 minute T spike then a west wind or something. If we wanna argue the BD front won't make it to CT, I never said it would. I said it isn't clear whether it will or won't.

Well well well well... PF finally gets to feel our low elevation, east of the Berks April pain lol

It's interesting ... - this study really quite exquisitely corroborates my own observations regarding the 'pattern behavior' of the continental circulation mode, of particularly mid to late spring into early summer, over the Ohio Valley, ...through southern/southeastern Canada and the northeast U.S. - as well as the upper Mid Atlantic. These regions, ...usually between late April and the beginning of Junes ( over the last decade ), have experience unusual episodic heat departures, those with higher non-hydrostatic 500 mb geopotential heights associted. However, rather atypical relative to day time temperature extremes, the hydrostatic heights ( referred to commonly as 'thickness' ) are lower. This is reflected in lower DPs, with lower night time lows, ... giving rise to unusually vast diurnal changes due to radiative forcing ( sun ). They don't have to be heat waves, per se? Just lows of 48 with highs of 87 will make the point. 41 to 80 ...etc. Extreme diurnal changes where the atmosphere is kinetically charged, but lacks the moisture input to store latency, ...such that nighttime lows would remain elevated. We don't see that near the coast, because the SE flow tendency is loading theta-e proficiently into these latter regions. I've been noticing this, and suspecting that is the cause, and so... quite refreshing to see this study's presentation corroborate that. What is interesting also... I have posted material, replete with annotations, showing how there appears to be an increasing tendency for ridging nodes to set up near Quebec, as a year -to- year repeating spring theme ( roughly in that date range above). This creates a W wind at locations such as Watertown NY to Burlington VT to Montreal, QUE and further out through the lower/SW Martime, while there was that SE flow coming into the mid Atlantic underneath this nodal circulation mode, keeping those regions from experience higher afternoon temperatures. There were a few years in the last decade, where in one or two events ... Burlington VT was as high as the middle or upper 90s, while it was only 82 to 84 between DCA and Philly... I have a hypothesis on what is driving these circulation oddities... and it relates also to why the NAO domain quadrature of the Annular Mode has been dominating the positive phase state... but that's extends this into another area having to do with the expansion(ing) Hadley Cell.

I'm really saddened that I did not get my resource shit together younger in life ...and/or wasn't born into a trust fund. This is precisely the garbage that Will and I were commiserating over last month, where it's time to book the flight and flee in haste to the 2nd home or villa ...some other place where the skies are painted with tipped cumulus, over short sleeve golf weather. Not to return until mid May, or such time as it is exceptionally high confidence that the weather breaks. Stealing from Samuel Clemens, ' The coldest winter I ever experienced was a spring in Southern New England ' He was talking about the Bay Area, but the sentiment veraciously applies here, too

It's really just the bottom 2,000 foot of the atmosphere, too. Look at the spine of the Greens in western VT nearly 60.

Using the un-official home sites, c/o Wunder ... this is where the BD appears to be right now... Perhaps masked a bit by clouds and morning showers, belaying the temp rise somewhat S-W of the front, but it's close to this Otherwise ...we'd probably squeeze back into the 60s today, and with more DP it'd feel quite a bit different than that destiny N-E of that nasty boundary. The models busted here... It's interesting that the NAM had pulled back on this front in the last 2 or 3 cycles of runs. It kept the wind at Logan S and that did not happen from 06z thru now - not even close.