Typhoon Tip

It is not realistic, nor efficient when when does not clearly get, believe or appreciate the scale and degree of the crisis. What does me coming up with solutions have to with identifying the problem. For the sake of discussion, the solution is stop engaging in that which with kill us - There is no remediation or moving to new geographies to avoid problem areas ...that which you cited evinces someone that has an overly simplified, therefore inadequate understanding of the larger manifold of moving parts in the climate holocaust. You don't possess that acumen. You don't.

In fact, that's pretty close to getting it done in that longer range Euro.. huh. I mean I wouldn't mention it but the canvas is in support so tfwiw -

Not for not but yup ... I said that this morning my self, that -NAOs over the western limb of the domain space don't typically correlate to well to warm sectors fisting to Montreal. Any warm intrusion at this time of year is autosuspect - I think the best 'protection' against miring misty rhea and/or general shit show is to just have the whole domain normalize to the point where the cyclone weakens and sort of ends up elevated like a broad disk at 500 mb. Sometimes that happens in spring, too. I mean it'd be self destructing into pancake days ...but at least it isn't a total prison nightmare in that option - Looks like there's still blue bomb hope out there into the first week of April though. Disappears quickly after that...but it aint over in the telecon/guidance tenors

I haven't had a beer in 7 years. It's been that long. 2015 ..it's 2022. really - I used to like Jack Abbey's ...micro brew located in Framingham. They had this really indescribable silky lager that you would swear was about to finish sweet but didn't. I guess they call that taste phenomenon 'overtones' ? It was I think 8% abv so not huge but not light. I just can't recall the name. I had always thought of beer as tolerably bitter to me - best to gin and tonic then chase a sipper. I never really truly fully "acquired" a taste for it. I got buddies ...well, used to. We're all mid aged and not really as concerned with it. They used to know beers and source and stuff. A year later, a conscious, and in a lot of ways... unconscious made decision which swept a change through my life style. I wasn't alcoholic per se. But I was living alone and didn't have any any 'natural buffers,' as a bachelor dude... getting toward 40 years ..blah blah. I was out of shape and weird symptoms. My doctor was kind of douche though. Told me the amount was not causing my problems... Then how come all of went away? you know. Anyway, now I have friends that sort of heading the same direction or beginning to ... so it's really like I beat them out by a decade.

You just repeated your same mantra back to us. I'll try to address some stand outs then I'll move along from this conversation. #1 In short, it is preventable; the solution is just not desirable... and that's what's really at stake. Those types of questions... 'why should we, if they won't' or another one of my favorites, 'we'll be dead before it matters' ( fecklessly immoral) ... these are all really stall tactics. They defer acceptance, or allow continued profligate practices by sending the issues spinning in discussion endlessly... Bargaining is sometimes referred. Unfortunately, the reality is probably not tenable by the minds of most - we are already doomed. That's probably it. We cannot change the momentum of 8 billion per capital species mass, as quickly as it necessarily must change. #2 That does not alter the truth of the problem - it only makes the point. Anthropomorphic activity is forcing environmental break downs - and it's not just CC by the way.. There are major toxicity problems ... land and sea. Where does one begin. Human male sperm counts are down all over the world - which may not be a bad thing, ironically. But microplastics... Narrow temperature tolerant phytoplankton die offs in the ocean. It comes across as though the scope of knowledge/awareness isn't there frankly. This has a ginormous spectrum of components. #3 The Earth is presently in a mass extinction event ... That is biological fact, not mere conjecture. And the reason, based upon all metrics of science in the cause-and-effect relationship, is that climate is changing faster than adaptation rates.. I said that in the previous - so your response is incorrect. If one registered what that means, that statement of yours does not logically follow. So... comes off a bit like conceptual avoidance. You are right that humans are adaptive ... but there is a tolerance range there, too. What we are warning as climate and atmospheric scientists, is a reality outside that range. One cannot adapt at a certain point - let alone large groups, to whole populations having to cooperate during dwindling resources. Again, the Earth's biological system, to which we owe our entire existence, is an integrated whole. If enough systems break down, we come under direct existential threats. #4 Depends what is meant by 'all our resources' - ... It's a race really ...

This is troubling .. But it is also indirectly - I believe - related to the same aspects that have decoupled the ENSO states from the circulation modes during recent winters. The energy observation is a different metric.. But that increasing is consistent with decoupling in the 'intuitive' sense - just probably needs the geophysical proof/mathematics But the decoupling thing has been intriguing in its own rights. This season spent some 5 .. 6 weeks with only weakly identifiable La Nina circulation foot-print. This type of decoupling has taken place during both warm(cool) ENSO events, with increasing frequency, spanning the last 15 or so years.

that was my exact assessment a moment ago - HA!

Cold snaps suck if one's switch has been flipped and they're all in on spring and warm enthusiasm. Still, a bit of over -circumscribed focus on Monday/Tuesday cold snap, when it really doesn't last terribly long. I suppose there's some novelty in challenging cold high temperature records. Yeah I guess.. You know it seems the last 25 years of observed weather has been making a mockery out of records, knocking them down by obsolete margins, too. Like, heat waves in the Pac NW that double the departure they just broke? Record high of 94 goes to a new record of 119 and shit like that... Jesus. Like, how that can even happen without two suns simultaneous lazing. This cold shot on Monday, if it holds Logan to 32 and merely "shatters" the record by a single degree - that would be hidden face smack actually... Cuz in a funny way, it's comparatively pedestrian. My guess is the temp rises to 32.5 and keeps the day as miserable as imaginable in every dimension.. haha. Wednesday may not be as bad it looks with early April sun pounding away on a d-slope flow. Despite the low hydrostatic heights, the air mass probably beats MOS in that look. Some alleviation anyway.. I agree that the warm sector at the end of the week may get suppressed given time. It's not typically a good statistic fit for -NAO's over the western limb of its domain region, to also have warm penetration N of 40 along PIT-N NJ. Assuming the NAO is being handled right -

It’s different now though. The ‘all winter long nothing has…’ isn’t therefore applicable unfortunately. The limitations plaguing winter, destructive spacing and velocity interference, are no longer as prevalent. Flow’s slower with shortened wave lengths … it’ll phase more proficiently - in the relative sense.

Well yeah hardy har-har but the reason I bring it up - in my defense - has to do with the end of the solar nadir - which is a real thing. Perennially that date is Feb 10 at 45deg latitude. There's a bit of philosophy to this... but, in a celestial mechanical purist perspective, the first day of spring should really be when the solar nadir ends, on that date. The Earth's air-sea-land machinery takes a long time to switch gears... March 1st is really just a cataloguing convenience for climate science ( I believe ..that's what I read years ago) The only real value March 20-22nd has is the fact that the Earth's tilt wrt to the ecliptic is dead even at some point/ hour and moment in the orbital arc through those dates. Calling that the first day of spring March 21 doesn't really mean jack shit to celestial mechanics, which is what/why we have seasonal variations at all. It's just human labels. But to the celestial mechanics, the change begins on ~ Feb 10. If humans ever wanted to call seasons based upon a real celestial -rooted metric, they should be designated relative to latitude... 42 N is ~ Feb 8th... which is Logan airport, given decimals. At Logan, winter should be Nov 8 to Feb 8. Spring should be Feb 8 to May 8. Summer should be May 8 to Aug 8. Aut should be Aug 8 to Nov 8. Climate and sensible weather lag by these solar calendar by 45 or even 60 days... and people probably don't like calling autumn, autumn, when it's 101 F amidst and Dente heat wave on Aug 20... no more than they like calling spring, spring, when there's an 1888 redux...

What snow threat ? ... cold shot, perhaps

Yeah...definitely see it. I mean they brilliantly illustrated in the scenes how the hereditary culture of toeing the line ... well, I don't wanna give it way. Heh, I mean I think we all know where it ended up. People knowing Z is wrong, or A is dangerous, and not speaking up to an excruciating extent. Lol... above all else for me, 'how could anyone want to live in a society that crushes life flat by such weighted dogma. It's not even about communism, either. It's literally down to the scale of fearing the person's rank standing in front of you, fearing reprisal if they even sniff your dissension. If you see that... and understand the cultural vestige - then imagine how a rampart of top Russian brass would handle an inner cadre of unhinged superiors. I think it's a fascinating 'stand-off' ... When/if we get through this, there's a fantastic read and/or remake of this history no doubt. But let's get the world through this first.

I know there are both direct and indirect ties to foreign state ... I was asking whether detection methods knows where the pings are originating. They can tunnel/'root' technologies ... but a brilliant hacking agencies, or those operating alone ( either ) have means to conceal their whereabouts. I'm just curious if part of the wave is more just those latter types hitting all at once, and if the difference can be determined.

Heh.... nah that's a tongue-in-cheek metaphor for that context. Actually the whole post has some hand throwing frustration like that. In something more like reality, without full support, both intellectual and moral of the rank and file of both the the Kremlin and the infrastructural military/ arsenal Poopin isn't going to be able to carry out such a finality - not a Global scale. Moreover, that business I posted about the Yevgeny Ilyin ( ranking Russian Military figure ) is being reported by multiple independent news sources. Putting these fact into an intelligentsia manifold, it doesn't add up to Poopin having unilateral internal support. This is one man and his closest figures simply not accepting the reality that the World has long abandoned the former paradigm, leaving their ideology on wrong side of history ... The Generals outburst and tamber, surely signals they are aware of the shear lunacy in allowing this thing to escalate to scorching Earth based upon that cause. They know... The gotta. This whole war is really the vestigial super ego, death gasp act of a dying apparatus... Part of the problem is also courage to go up against the hierarchical command structure, inherent to Russian sociology. Folks should really watch the recent "Chernobyl" docudrama. They beautifully cinema the crushing culture the Russians have about respecting echelon, and not challenging authority - literally to knee bent fear. Even in the face of clear and present idiocy. There's some of that vestigial issue going on here... The General and his comments, together with the mien of the entourage that wasn't distilled any other way during those meetings with Western/NATO brass, signal they are troubled. And probably, quite frustratingly coveting their resolves. It's plausible if not likely he may be more tethered internally ( Poopin') than he may even know. Their watching him and will step in? I lean suspiciously toward some form of internal recourse quietly ending this. Quasi, or intimate coup de etat, or some lesser sort of step aside... It doesn't make sense already for Russia to persist with this conflict, and with NATO allied nations supplying now munitions to the Ukrainians forces, ... it cannot end well for Russia. Then (obviously) considering the enormous economic pressures added to all that really... ? It's already over. They have to have an exit strategy. But one that doesn't require everyone is dead, on all sides. Or else we are truly dealing with mass psychosis involving large numbers and that's already proven to be far less likely. The Generals emotive response and outburst - from a noted character of stoical disconnect behind cerebral glaring back amid other amulet adorned brass, is a pretty powerful suggestion that dissension over this whole war must be present among said rank.

I'm just an Internet happen-by like anyone else..but when I come across 'cyber attack' escalation waves, I'm always wondering if these are foreign sovereignty ( state ) sanctioned? Some likely are/have been. I think there is pretty damning evidence of 'cyber cold warring' from China. And Russia for that matter. But just knowing sociology at a menial level of healthy cynicism ... a tech genius misanthrope covert from his/her basement, can do a lot of damage alone. Consder: if they are a part a population 300,000,000, ... pure numbers argue there's a huge number of those types. Moreover, likely triggered/ picking times of duress like this to scale up their bidding - Does detection know the difference. Are there times when it's just a wave of zealots ...en masse, giving the allusion of a orchestrated attack, or is it in fact some "Sector 7" of foreign government. Probably both. F'n humans ...

There's 80 .. 90% chance that Brian will be disgruntled tomorrow... Most guidance agree that the D- attempted Miller B will cripple its way toward the Martimes, exiting the region between 06 and 12z .. That backside of this may get real, real lucky for everyone S-E of his geographic hell tomorrow, where light backside d-slope flow is not deeply cold advecting, yet still just strong enough to aid in DVM/NVA clearing... That's all code for him pancaking the day at a stalled 48 while anyone 10 mi S-E of the pancake rim will be shooting toward the low 60s ... Just perfectly annoying lol Seriously, it does look like we get lucky and soar the temp mid day tomorrow. The flow aft the low's passage prior to dawn does come around to the NW. It's not really imparting much cold ..easily offset by d-slope compression. Models may tend to over pollute the ceiling coverage in that sort of set up - at least they used to.. ...Model choice is blend of Euro/NAM ... leaning Euro for RH/sigma levels. The Euro's bone dry by 18z at 700, 500 and 300 mb, over top a +4 at 850 mb and +11 ..12C at 925... in column that's mix-able through that depth... So that's 22C for a > 60% insolation shining into the 2-meter. What a shocker compared to to 37 F R- retchedness out there right now. Feel the GFS is too lagged with 925 to 700 mb RH for that 12z to 18z window...altho it does tend to dry out the column by 18z so it may not be totally wrong either. This is the way it's likely to be for the next 10 days ... how far into April is anyone's guess. But these kind of sneaky nape days emerge in time, in between either the mired of drab days like today, or those obnoxious windy cold wasted sun ones... I'd say that's also pretty spot on our climate for New England at this time of year, too. Cold shot early next week does little for lingering winter enthusiastic hope ... then rinse and repeat at the end of the week. Welcome to thrilling inspiration of New England spring... By this time next year, I may be shopping in a different region in the country. I'm changing preferentially/internally ... I'm starting to not feel/sense the benefit of winters when then having to contend with endless protracted nature of this ultra low redemptive spring discomfort. It's just not ringing as worth it to me. I'm outgrowing it... something.

I really fight believing that without the artful unique solution the next best recourse, if perhaps for even avoiding the worst case scenario and saving humanity… would be the quasi or outright coup de etat … In a rare show, the far more stalwartly stoical mien of Russian general Yevgeny Llyin, broke into an overt emotional display in meetings between his entourage and NATO/U.S. military officials last week. The personal accounting of those witnesses, they were given the impression that there is a morality conflict in the rank and file of the Russian war machinery. They know. The question is whether that leads to some sort of internal reckoning/self-guiding exit strategy - to put it diplomatically.

So Madelaine Albright has passed, 84. She was a central figure in the Clinton administration among other accolades and/or infamy - side of the aisle characterizing.. Last week in NYTimes she's cited as having earlier intimated Russian leader Vladimir Putin would be making “a historic error ... Instead of paving Russia’s path to greatness, invading Ukraine would ensure Mr. Putin’s infamy by leaving his country diplomatically isolated, economically crippled and strategically vulnerable in the face of a stronger, more united Western alliance." Meanwhile, "Poopin" /Kremlin mouthpiece has recently stated that Russia would resort to nuclear weapons if they are under existential threat. Who gets to decide if Russia is under existential threat? HIM!!?? He's making his own rules. He's a psychopath redrawing the VIN diagram of righteousness around his own internal monologue of cold war era super ego. This is still just an intractable situation that requires a unique non military solution - To say nothing of the fact that the statements of Albright ... MEAN a destiny at existential dilemma. They can't end any other way really. So, two different ideologies, from disparate source, projecting a grim cinema when taking both seriously. Get your affairs in order, people. You know ... one almost wonder if Putin's already decided to launch his weapons; he just needed an excuse. Invading Ukraine was a calculated move to get him to that goal. Because it's a nice logical explanation that atones for the fact that he's fVcking making an existential dilemma a reality. There was no such state of dystopia before he became the aggressor.

Look at that Euro D7.5 to 9 ... sneaks a 70 F day in there out of nowhere ... actually, this run ends any contention for winter after that... It doesn't speak to "day 14" per se, but is definitely another seasonal flash that times for next Thursday. probably just transition season identity crisis.

I think a lot of fruiting floras seem to stress out more in recent years, and do what Will just snarked ... try to flower at their earliest convenience and then get zapped by a late freezing snaps. We have to consider the recent seasonal lag effects of blocking in springs... That "might" just be an example of how climate is changing faster than adaptation rates. It's a crisis, too, in some areas of the world, where the stress triggers both species migrations, and extinction. It may not be so critical for our local orchard species, because they are surviving, but are they as "fruitful" ? It used to be more dependably too cold prior to ~ Easter ..thus not triggering.

I see that more so on Friday... I mentioned this myself yesterday or the day before. The day may dawn murky and drippy and nasty ...but then the sky gets bright at 9 am and by 10:30 ...11 o'clock, sky lights are expanding to vaster tracts of openness to sun dumping radiative forcing in... the temp probably jumps pretty good. Mex is 57 ..58 along the KFIT-KASH-KBED arc ... which is still 3 days away as of 00z .. some modest climate weighting there. It may actually be dimming that some. Plus the WNW flow may be too pessimistic in the sky coverage .. Basically, the correction vector for those temps circa 21Z Friday afternoon is pointed on the plus side of MOS. While we extol the losses of spring prospects in the various guidance 'general appeals,' meanwhile sneaky balm afternoons happen. Saturday is tricky...Pretty potent S/W and strengthening CAA doesn't carry the same vibe for me

I'm not prepared to aver we can't get so cold in the last week of March of any given year - CC hasn't evolved quite that far gone .. However, in this particular series of runs, I'm thinking this modulates less egregious in time. Model correction trends over recent months (which I'm not sure that isn't still quasi dependable...) has done that too often. There's two factors, that, and because models do this in the spring as a longer term aspect. Those may be mutually exclusive reasons to doubt that excessive appeal verifies quite so harshly. Yesterday was +5 at 980 mb, -4 at 900 mb and -5 at 800 mb at those levels over Logan at sun up...and we still managed low to mid 50s in a sparkling afternoon. We only missed "higher nape ranking" by factor of annoying wind. That's the sun embarrassing a snow atmosphere's ability to compete. It's gonna be cold... annoying... yup. But I suspect as we get near the models back off ...I dunno, some 20 or 30% of that annoyance. The 00z runs seems to hint that already, with the -20 C's less inserting/residential once that happens. If it ended up more a typical late March pedestrian cold wave, wouldn't shock me. As an aside, for muse it seems like the models "forget" the season is changing at this time of year, while rushing matters in autumns - in fact, the GFS usually starts threatening lake graupel air masses by an August 20th, 300 hour CAA - can't wait to end summer. I've actually seen the GFS try to start porking summer in by mid July. I think they have problems budgeting radiate forcing. In the spring, it's like they start at a given initialization, and as each day goes by in that given model run, they cleanse away the heat, while not adding the daily forcing out in time. In the early autumns they over assess the loss. At this time of year, a D7 to 10 they are all the way back to January. There's an air of sarcasm there; it's an exaggeration - but something like that. Different phenomenon entirely, to bowling season antics however... 1997 was 64F on March 29th ... 48 hours later? Historic blue bomb. Although that was uniquely extreme. It was +3 C and 850 mb - if memory is right - on that Saturday. NW dry down slope breeze, still enough to mix super adiabats and swell the BL to tall heights. Basically, perfect d-slope thermodynamics exaggerated the high temp. In fact, I remember having left the Weather Lab's morning of remnant hang-over, coffee and nerd charting ... around 11:45 am. En route to brunch at Fox Hall, ...walking across University Ave Bridge spanning over the Merrimack there ...the CU fractals seemed unusually high based. Their meager vertical extensions leaning over into Kelvin- Hemholtz eddies.. I mused the abstract artistry - the natural hand painted schooners dappled across a vast bay in some kind of regatta, as they leaned over amid white caps. The moment was nape on roids! Tho was but 60, it may as well been 80 under the blaze of March 30 sun ... I've often enough nostalgia over the eruption in spring energy and vitality over the University life as it spilled out of doors across commons... Meanwhile, the hinted model runs of the aft week were as of that morning really designing that storm.

I'm personally not buying the magnitude of the cold climate hammer the Euro and GFS are selling D6-7.5, from this range. I'd be surprised if it showing that by this Friday's runs.

Well... I guess that's not totally true.. I do remember maybe 5 Aprils spanning my decades on this planet... So, I guess based on that relative sample set, there is a 90% chance of being ass pounded beyond the endurance of man, and a 10% chance that it breaks dandy. Heh, the worst month ever experience for weather ( though ) was May 2005 by a country mile, too. The worst summer was 2000

There's a sneaky good vibe Friday afternoon if the Euro's right. We end up under the low ( latitude) The flow turns west and the 850 mb cold pool lags through NY ...so we'd be down sloping under +2 to +4 C 850s ( but the mixing depth doesn't likely get that tall, no - ), with warm sun swaths... It'd likely bust MOS too cool. I but that's good for 60 or even a bit better before pancaking. Not terrible. Thing is, the models will also tend to overpollute the skies with d-slope trajectories - so it could be better than that looks moreover. Granted, it's not 78 but ... you know, we all need to get a grip and not expect anything other then shit. April is still coming and there's no justification in lore or numbers, that suggest that will be anything other than an unrelenting interminable crime by god itself