Typhoon Tip

Ah yes... That's really spring in New England, what it is all about. It's about tip-toeing through a landmine field of reasons to offset the inevitability of the ensuing "warm" season. These recent/overnight charts continue to look that way. To which the proverbial 'bowling season' is a part.. so, perhaps some entertainment too. But those are actually rare. We're far more likely to step on mines ... in the form of BDs, or like that wave moving off the MA...etc. In between, we get a warm car seats, and protected deck nape out of the wind if the sun's shining. That's how I always remember springs around this region of the country. Presently in the guidance it would seem we're heading into period that fits more with that lore. I think the propensity of snow ( or atmosphere's supporting that ) in May has been extraordinary, because it is has happened with different leading indicators. And counter-intuitive as it may seem, the 80s we saw in Febs and Mar might be related to the same disruptive forcing.

Agreed ... For the general reader: Recent guidance has been consistent with this being "possibly" the last "pattern cold" - which is weird sounding... But what I mean is, the tundra delivery circuitry gets cut off. Yesterday's system if symbolically, it is as though it packed up winter, hugged good-bye today, and we watch it drive away. What we are left with in the wake is more seasonal anomalies. I'm a little leery of great expectations for this week's sensible weather, though. Particularly Thurs into Friday. There's a cold and unwhite middling/weak mid Atlantic low that appears to have no other functional purpose for existing other than solely to f-up the outlook during that time. I'm not sure it's fake. It would atone to a 30 F afternoon temperature correction from the Del Marva to eastern NE. If it suppresses south, no problem - we'll be under equinox sun. And with no other appreciable gradient/wind, 925 to 850 mb well above 0 C, we'd be really soaking in "nape balm" But turn the flow around to anything sniffing E component and forget it. You're completely f'ed.

I remember that one vividly for that reason alone. It was plow-able snow out in Acton where I lived at the time. But we've had that in Aprils. That in itself is not that usual. It was the fact that as I pulled into a small row of single story stores, plumes of shattered crystals were lowering visibility around my car to nil as the miasma curled off the eaves of the flat building tops, ... at 1:15 in the afternoon. Mind you, that is ~ 1 month before entry into the solar maximum time of year ( ~ May 8 through August 8, lat dependent) I sat there in internal monologue, "This is insane" That must have been a unique combination of actual cold availability, along with unusual cloud depth/density lowering sqr wattage. Something special, because I have seen equinox, 31 F dawn snow end up glop rain with steam coming off streets by that time in the afternoon. And there we were three weeks later with horrible road conditions

Meh... their numbers are falling -

Yeah... it almost seems like this part of this whole mess is windexy

Oh that's interesting... like the comet tail

I know I've already mentioned but will again for the general audience. - This whole ordeal was very ANA like by behavior. The models depicted cyclone tracking along the boundary ...so it was more than that. But, it still was toting along some characteristics of the ANA...with undercutting RH deformation 850 mb flow with S wind over top. The models always think that's wringing out big moisture, but like you say ( and is part of why ANA's are typically over billed - ), that happens. It ends up being flurries under undulating virga plumes. The cold front was deep and powerful anyway? It seems to have a deep pressure trough - I suspect the low riding along that sort of over marketed its strength. Nevertheless, we're going to have to recover from 982 to 985 mb pressures here over the next several hrs and the winds likely voice its opinion over roof tops.

My buddy down near NYC is telling me that the sfc is under performing relative to the radar - just sayn'

Hey, no argument from me yeah. I think I said this whole ordeal seemed over cooked to me the other day. I was never too keen on it so ...ah well. It is what it is.

Heh... some percentage of this event turned out to be ANA duping tho - It's more of a hybrid ANA/ cyclone development sort of smear, and the cold came in and the rad dried out - that aspect behavior is the eye color of the ANA trait

Interesting how this is flipping here... Seems to be transitioning right to medium aggregates/uniform... and skipping the golf ball phase but it may yet -

White rain and PLs now in Ayer... Just kicked in last 5 or 10 min... 39 ... Clouds abruptly began moving rapidly S so the front's likely slipped passed

it does look like the boundary is mid way through N CT ... not through HFD just yet - wonder how that matches up with guidance? it's kind of hard to find it by wind because we're draining anyway. But those that go west of the boundary have shed 2- 3F rather quickly when using the 'non official' Wunder sites -

How is that being assessed ....? just curious - Front is not through here, in Ayer Mass, but I also should be on the same front as you, given to it's orientation NNE-SSW through the area. So that's interesting. I have been 38 all morning. If it ticks colder aloft, we could easily be spring cotton ball aggregates here ...so it's probably going to be an interesting day for the transition nerds - hahah

I realize there's a coveted hope in needling monitoring of a hopeless situation... and I hope it works out for many of you - really, seriously... But I, for one, cannot wait until circa 2:34 PM Monday afternoon, when the temp is in process of a 30 point recovery that day, and skies will be primarily cloud free, and the wind may not be appreciably strong. Area MOS ( FIT/ASH/BED ..which is relevant triangulum for Ayer) is 55 in MET MOS. 51 in the MAV ... but, keeping in mind, we've entered the time of year when the machine numbers tend to error cool under clear skies and zippo CAA. Here's the aspect that makes that day an interesting challenge for forecasting high temperatures: snow on the ground; decoupling Sunday night. Of those two factors, the decoupling is the bigger. Sunday night, even a couple of inches of snow ( more west of course...) under the ensuing cold intrusion is probably going to decouple rather quickly. Places like Orange MA'll be 12 by dawn - probably high teens most places anyway. That's quite the deep well to begin. It's just that all the guidance have 850mb recovering to +2 C by late afternoon, collocating the Pike, but doing so with low mixing. That would suggest adiabatic processing from diurnal overturning. Not sure the adiabat gets the high... I think 925 is the BL depth, but that's +5 by 4pm, and the SA from that level supports 62-ish in the 2-meter T, so it's going to either be a huge MOS bust that day, or I'm missing something here heh... Oh, I know what it is! Anyone actually reading this far along this tedium...

I like both heat and A.C. tho heh. no but my interest in heat is the synoptic meteorology … actually being in it all comes down to DP really

That jets pushing the ceiling on physics there... no doubt, but what's missing is a nice fan evac over N. NY-NNE ...If that were there, the snow on the cold side of the baroclinic axis would be better for those that are looking for that... Frankly I think you're all f nuts... I'd rather be like today or warmer from here on out but oh well.

...heh, "season" is a thing of the past. We're all mid aged now ... kind of opportunistic when we can go. We did one back in January on one of those milder days with no snow on the ground, most realistically out of desperation to get an out.

Albany ( NAM ) looks like they could get an impressive short duration snow blitz. They're packing .75" melted in a total snow sounding on the NAM FOUS. This situation is razor sharp really. The NAM grid is harder to delta between the intervals. Look at LGA ... They go from spitting QPF to a truck load, in a sounding that starts out in mid May and end up late January 240 03989255 02005 981506 51070603 30083909234 08115 913328 43999499

I'm kidding...

Not to be prig or a dick ... but I'm going to - what the f are we spending all this time needling through the carpet, surfing ( urban vernacular/metaphor) for any slipped rock nuggets to get us a d-drip.. Gosh, it looks pathetic. ...ha! Now, watch us get 12" of positive bust in a 1::1000 lotto winner, only because I said that -

As in, at all ? ..ha. I love baseball, but admit it's hard... getting harder for the average spectator. With all other distractions pawing at attention, there's just too much other stuff. Who the hell has time to sit through languid pitch counts ... game caller guys filling with anything they can that ultimately is meaningless to what's going on or one's time. Yeah, the future doesn't end well for that engagement. It's a problem for the game. It's 'on the wrong side of history.' It made sense - maybe - pre Internet/ media-tech -based culturally. I mean it'll survive for a longer while... inevitably dwindling draw. In the interim, there is still a large population that remembers ... perhaps with nostalgia. That target demo-g is there... But the longer term model of the game ? I agree - has to evolve into something new.

By the way ...for our winter enthusiasts, the anticipated 'bowling season' is showing up in the guidance as increasingly more plausible. One thing I'm seeing is the 'spring flash' passing over the operational models. It's not a fixed "effect" year to year, but it's when the pervasive veneer of colder availability/in situ across the N-tier and southern Canada, abruptly retreats and/or modulates up. This even this weekend appears to herald that in. It appears to coil winter up with it and trundles away as a deep pattern changing bomb- which is almost like a symbolic "seasonal Archembault" thing ... (that's interesting). anyway, next week we are left with more minoring 850 mb plumes and general warm tapestry of hydrostatic heights have taken over. *BUT* ... that still offers winter hope - ironically. Because the flow is relaxed, and it is curved in nature. The slowing velocities in the ambience allows that latter to happen, and there is the risk of closing off these parcels of mechanics. That's 1997 incarnate - not saying that's walking through the door. Just that closing off systems over marginal thickness settings is how you go from 64 F to 33 F at 10" of blue bomb snow ... which melts away in 3 days and your back in the 60s ...but, that's bowling season.

Today's likely to be impressive too... Low 20s at dawn, it's already 40-44 at home sites around the area.

Hey PF ... Monday's a 'diurnal spread watch' from what I am seeing. ...I mean it's one of my little dorkisms about spring(autumn) season(s), to test the extremeness of diurnals? I think you mentioned sharing in this crushing tedium LOL But, that looks like decoupling Sunday night to a pretty deep layer... going to an interesting correction Monday afternoon. I think up your way, mid summit up, SW winds overnight - tougher there. The valleys may actually not mix out at all the following afternoon on Monday. Otherwise, we could be dead calm 19 at dawn around SNE Monday morning, and make 57F that afternoon. WSW flow during the day under full equinoxian full sun? Seeing 850 mb explode from -11C at dawn, all the way to +3 by evening ...whilst dry advection/ clear ceiling, which means the mixing depth may extend higher than one may think. The gradient seems too week to force that much correction at that level, so it's gotta be mixing... Pretty cool. Winter coats to heavy nape.