Typhoon Tip

this is prolly real stupid but what is 'SA' ?

Unlikely ... just like all other years where late blocking occurred, it'll likely break down circa mid May ... sending a heat wave across southern Canada. What happens after has typically been ( for us...) above normal JJA, where the greater anomalies were in the nighttime lows. That happens because the the cT air mass of summer is being charged more and more as a consequence of CC. It's actually happening all over the planet .. if interested. Climate science is showing that the ballast of warming is indeed in the nocturals not falling as far... due to higher WV. The other aspect is singular heat wave events that are > SD than seasonality.. .but as harsh and headlining as those are in big media, they don't add up nearly as much as the slow drip add-in of the night time lows being persistently above normal in just about every direction. Long of the short, expect an early heat wave in late May to mid June, followed by 87/75 much of the way.

Oh man... those GEF teleconnectors are just putrid for spring/warm enthusiasts. I was hoping things might correct some but if anything they keep elevating to even more misery if anything. Then... I think back over the last 5 years ..and how at least 2 of them had snow flurries in May. So what's gonna happen with a -2 SD NAO that's retrograding toward the D straight region, while the PNA flips from negative to positive sign? Even if this doesn't produce an interesting late snow ( the most likely result - ) there's nothing about the recent climate patterning/seasonality, combining the present state of the telecon outlook, that looks very promising. mother f'er, how I hate this dumpster geography at this time of year.

there's two through D10, tho - In fact, there may be a procession of 'em thru week 2. It's complex ..but subtle change in the total hemispheric circulation mode, from the central Pac, all the way around to Greenland ... is likely to trigger a -NAO eruption. At first it is over the eastern limb of the NAO domain, which is probably why the first closed low that rattles around underneath it...ends up out along 60 W... Just far enough E, we are spared a gruesome Saturday. Then, blocking is retrogrades over a painfully slow 7 day period, ending up over the west limb/Davis Straight... That induces the next stranded wave to rattle around 70 W - the one is the one you're seeing for later next week. But there are in fact, two over the 10 days. The models have been picking up on that total behavior, ens and operational version, for a week - it's likely to happen. 'Sides, as I've opined ( when not bitching about it...) it fits an emerging persistence about springs in general over the last decade, to observe late blocking. Whatever happens, the -NAO is likely to occur and f-up any chance for real pithy warmth. Both the GEFs and EPS ... garland the 70 N region with tendencies for positive height anomalies, while tendency for lower along 40 N, over our side of the hemisphere... right through the first week of May. During that time, the 'correction vector' is pointed at the rhea end of the spectrum. Doesn't mean it will be that way all the time, just that in any situation where the indications look 50/50 ... put money down on the shit side.

Wouldn't care to doubt any of that. But what we take what we can get, and if Fri - Mon end up that way, it shows a chicken shit pattern can sometimes come into range more chicken salad. But as far as the next three weeks, it doesn't look good with blocking in the means pearled out along the 70 n region of this side of the hemisphere. If that works out, stretches like Fri/Mon are rarefied.

This doesn't look terrible, Friday through next Monday to me... Not looking over the GFS and/or the Euro synoptics. Both park the surface pressure pattern/ridge squarely overhead, with 850 and 925 mb thermal layouts that would easily support low 70s at this time of the solar calendar. Sun would be the only limitation...But +7 at 925 mb in dry partly cloudy is still getting us into the mid 60s. I thought/previously it looked like BD hell but that's not what's being modeled through that period at this point. Stepping back further, this is a classic spring 'omega block'... Every once in a blue moon, that sets up with the ridge right over one's location, with the conjoining a-hole vortexes too far E or W to effect. Could it be, this is the proverbial blue moon? I guess the set up is too transient to be a block, per se.. but through those 4 days it lasts -

I'm sure when this April's 'state of the climate' is published later in May, it will be in the top 5 warmest Aprils since chisel and hammer. Yet, this region of the N/A continent will not only be the coldest region relative to that above normal month/planet, it will almost singularly be weighting the average down ... owning 90% of the offset ballast. There is something about springs in the last 10 years, where this continental folding/-NAO domain shit kicks in late, that picks on this region of the globe. Seasonal lapsing ... It's been happening regardless of ENSO this, solar that.. N. Pac this ... over the last decade. I know why it is - I think - but ..no one will read it if it is written, so I won't. That said, it may not mean snow flurries in May, either. But for warm enthusiasts, you're likely not going to see 1976 or 2002 - even though those year's springs were also led by a NINA

Why does having a child change one's temperature preference?

The synoptic mechanics that give rise to the BD phenomenon are less likely observed in DJF, that's why. I mean I realize your question's in jest, but BD's ( also..) don't save winters in the alternate sense, either. That's not the function they serve. Just to kid around a bit, if want to place a function for them? It is for the sole purpose to f* up an afternoon and/or pinch New England off from early warmth .. .nothing else. They "might" have some redeeming value if they could ever cut into a torrid heat wave with an ahh air mass, but that seems to never happen. They appear to favorably take place during season ending winter ... struggling to break into spring and summer - right in there when the warm opportunities are fragile, they strike and persecute. lol - No but BDs happen for a few complex factors. Some of which are not even atmospheric, but because the region along roughly PA-Mt Katahdin in N. Maine, is higher in elevation than east of that axis. That creates a pocket of "stranded" vectors E of Albany. Basically, when the synoptic wind accelerates as it is moving from the SW or NW ( at synoptic scales/jets and so forth), that air is force over those elevations. This creates a natural physical counter force from the E in the pocket. If the counter force is not already in place/realized, the BD will likely materialize and move SW accordingly. If it is already in place, the E flow will just get stronger .. unnoticed. In the atmospheric heart of winter...the core of the westerlies tends to be south of our latitude ( generally .. since CC one can argue, based on empirical data, too -), such that there are less occurrence of wind accelerations coming from those directions/aloft, creating less restorative forcing east of the elevations. The other aspect is that there are less diurnally created temperature differences between western NS and Washington D.C. during winter. There are differences that are huge, but synoptic restoring forces are already moving in that case. But the daily made variety, there is less buoyancy forcing. From mid spring on, a sunny day in NJ will create a lot of lift there...and if there is a colder, denser air mass over eastern Maine, it will tend to come SW under the rising potential. These are seldom found circumstances during the winter months.

Spring blue ... ....any questions with that photo? Gorgeous!

It's an entirely subjective coursework of discussion ...I think we can all agree there. Still, I don't believe anyone is arguing against what you're saying. April's suck - period. It's just a matter of scale and degree, like you just said...but people are grousing to that aspect alone. Whether this one is better(worse) relative to that expectation ...that's a separate reality. No one really gives a shit that it's 'less shitty' than some other year in shits. We're still in the shits either way. Yeah, it's not 40 F with driving miasma of Labradorian mist with occasional non accumulating nape stinging cat-paw type snow... It hasn't been "that" bad. But no one's saying it has... That's just my subjective take. lol -

hahahahaha... that's f'n hilarious dude. Like, it's so wrong, climate change. Still ... I mean, duh. Climate changing faster than species adaptation rates ...eventually would cost humanity a dystopian population correction ( to put it diplomatically...). Therefore, one should not 'will on' a changing climate. So long as the above is all but an unstoppable certainty anyway ... can we please for f-sake dose this piece of shit month with some?

It depends what is meant by that in the above excerpt. Warm can be a subjective term... If the author means, +1 over normal.... ? Sure, I'd say there is a reasonable chance for that - semantic gaming implies 'warm' in that sense. But if you're intention in borrowing this statement from a [probably] much larger qualitative analysis is to 'sell' 80 - hehhh... nope. There is no way a boundary pinned SW connotes that. In fact, from this range, that could be like the scaffolding for 50s insert at some point.

- that too, yup CC is as much a sociological forcing, as it is forcing species migrations ...pandemics, screwy growing season. Freak synergistic oven events like the that which took place over Pac/NW last June ... and elsewhere with alarmingly increased frequency over the last 10+ years. Hell, maybe even eventually here one day. 107 at Logan, 4 days in a row, with lows no lower than 88 F over downtown boulevards of urbania in general. It's not as dire an impact as those latter effects, no ...but part of CC is perception. That's a rabbit hole. People have less awareness. We have not had that kind of 'synergistic heatwave' here ... if perhaps yet. I'm presently bunning myself .. mm hm but ... those hyper heat events are still popping up during the globe's summer hemispheres, like rogue wave phenomenon. The other thing ... I wonder if the yawing back and forth into transient nape smacking cold is effecting people's perceptions. Or if the ballast of 'warmer than normal' is owned by the nocturnal lows, while highs are muted by pancaking and/or rain timing... Then, garnished with those 1.5 day long cold smacks, ... the above normal gets completely invisible.

Boy ... warm enthusiasts that understand synoptics must be none-too thrilled by the prospects over next weekend. Warm front moves bodily to Pennsylvania axis, slams to a halt, This above (left) is as close as the surface boundary apparently gets, while then watching the warm ridge roll underneath. If that thing ever got NE of us, we'd be 84 F. Nope. It's because of the train wreck in the N. Atlantic circulation mode. It's a -NAO that is biased over the eastern limb of the domain. ...Technically, that should be enough room to allow the OV ridge to expand in ... maybe even fend off the BD eddy... But the models are cutting off a spring block E of CC like we used to see in the 1980s ..interesting. Anyway, that vortex gets pinned S NS out there, and that's the ball game. If that moves out more ...the warm air comes in.

probably not gonna be taken very seriously .. .but this month's behavior - to me - smacks like a global warming month. It's basically when the month is normal relative to the direction of delta(climate), perhaps not normal in a linear comparison with Aprils of last century. The problem with climate inferential efforts is that term, d(c). Changing climate means, ...it is mathematically unstable to compare a moving target, against a historic one that was more static. It's also why these seasonal outlook efforts ... I fight rolling my eyes, because every year people take from all these linear arguments, 'ENSO was x,y,z in 1954. Because it looks similar in the present day's seasonal climate modeling ...", etc, the winter forecast gets weighted accordingly. I don't know if I like that presumption. But this is also a digression... All I am saying is, ... experiencing an April that doesn't "feel" above normal even though it is, one that is also dappled with enough rain ( April showers?) ... to be a bit above normal, while no hydro pathways reflect surplussing... all seems like how climate change hides a normal month.

the issues with Tuesday's system ...likely failing the blue bomb deal, are bigger than just cold air. The N-stream is actually bullying in and only partially capturing... That's bad, because that behavior forces the westerly track,...but also does not really phase in enough to deepen it enough to where the whole structure can 'carve' SE a bit ...which would then go back to a more east track with a deeper total result. A latter scenario might actually do a dynamic flip deal.. But this is perfectly not right, as is.. The fact that the antecedent air mass is marginal - only - then does the rest. Because if there were more BL resistance/cold in place, that can force a deeper system and more d(t)/ p-type compression. It could be 'blamed' on a season tenor but I don't see this really "like" much that happened earlier this last winter. This is got broader systemically failing matrices involved. The models are not doing anyone any favors by painting any blue colors anywhere, because it's ginning up the hopes and maybe dreams that really probably don't have much hope of materializing. Unless the models are wrong about these limitations, and there's a cold destiny still lurking ? that's just having a gambler's addiction waiting on that probability to parlay. This is likely a typical climo April chilly rain coastal ...whether it ends up the Hudson or comes over Boston...it probably won't make a lot of difference anywhere < 1200' elevation, and restricted W-N

Euro wants that ..

Species matter of course... ...you ain't growing cucumbers now - no way. Tomatoes might survive, but that particular vegetable has bad recovery after having been stressed early in growth.. If you plant in marginal temps, they may stunt later in life. There's a ton of lettuce, herb and legumes that are cool preferential, however.. In fact, you can season those varieties, rotate the earth/fertilize and still season staples like cukes and toms.

So... there seems the underpinning gripe-memes for the day, no spring snow event? If so... meh. It really had lower odds of actually materializing. Sure, it's not zero. I mean..folks will claim they knew that and intellectually, they probably did. But they did not covet that belief. They latched onto the NAM's NW bias as still plausible on some level, ignoring the bias. That, and how it was only backed by the GGEM. Time of year and how models, in general, tend to over cool mid range as a spring error ... etc. No hope would have been more apropos. Then, we wait to be pleasantly surprised. It's tough to do that, I know, when folks have evolved a kind of emotional/'joy circuitry' turned on by in particularly, [the anticipation period], prior to a modeled event that features... whatever weather they want. In this case, snow. As an aside, I believe fully it is connected to that same sociological phenomenon covered in the "Social Dilemma" (NETFLIX), ...I think back in 2018. Similar phenomenon.. only here, the stimulation trigger is the models' creating storm cinemas via lucid access with media technology at people's disposal. The engineers of IOS have come out and admitted the psychotropic entrapment was the goal and how it works(ed). Fascinating - That's all sounds heavily clinical sounding ...maybe even damning, but it's not all that either. It's really about 'tendencies' to do so. Personally I'm lucky. I think I experience similar triggers from scoping out heat waves and other summer phenomenon, just the same. Speaking of which... how about the 00z Euro and GFS toward next weekend? It's -NAO emerging on the eastern limb of the domain region up there. Which in tandem with a modestly negative PNA ...I'm wondering if as the time nears, these operational runs are positioning the super synoptics more in favor of an eastern warm up - emerging in time. If the -NAO repositions more W ...the jig is up and we'll go the other way hard probably. Unlike last Decemeber, the present circumstance would find us influenced by a much weaker Pacific jet coming underneath from the W. We'd probably end up with troughing/cut-offs in the area. But if the -NAO stays more easterly limb, then westerlies may correct N over the eastern contenent - it seems to be trending that way. Seems also like we've been dealt reverses like a game. No sooner does one make model observation of tendency, the next model runs seem to deliberately go out of their way to mock the effort.

Here's a classic blue bomb ...ho man - pleezy weezy with sugar on top. Particularly because if you roll this series of GGEM charts thru, two days later there's a huge warm dome setting up

Who ... me? I said the word "April" in the post - if other, never mind.. But either way, one should think about "seasonally" - not by month anyway. Months mean nothing in nature. The context and fair interpretation is the concept of snow late, and not thinking we can escape that. That's the point.

Hehhh ...I understand the notion ... ( soupcon of frustration in hand throwing - haha), but I don't believe it's that far gone. ...yet. Like I said, and is true, the number of May days with snow in air - whether accumulated or not - in the last 20 years is up over the previous multi-30-year average trend. That's code for having more of them. There's large -scale circulation theoretical arguments that it could in fact be related to CC stuff...but that's not as important as it is that those incidences of cold very late, merely did not time synoptically with a storm system. Regardless of why ... I don't know if we'd should believe we are protected from late storms.

Excellent point... In fact, I was snarking about that, but as a seasonal tendency/model correction necessity earlier in this morning. The models will tend to over-assess the b-c gradients, because they were too cold to begin with - something about the seasonal damping effect of the sun is not modulated correctly out in time. I see this every year - I'd be fascinating to talk to the modelers/engineers down in NCEP about this ...and how/when the Euro or GFS tend to flood D7+ < 0 C 850 air masses down to 35 N like a full radian sun gets weaker out further into April?? Coastal comes along and it's February in the model's imagination. I'm being sloppy there a bit but you get it - Thing is, we can't discount it happening, either. 1987... 1977 ...1997 ... flurries in recent Mays? It's just narrowing the margin for error. Probably we have more of what you are mentioning in anomalous dosing ...less interference...etc.