Typhoon Tip

What ? huh I saw two mid level bombs on this oper. GFS. Oh they're out there in time, sure, but I'm throwing a confused at myself over a hostile take of the 12z run. Maybe it didn't reflect well in the surface evolution? much less the blue colors haha. I dunno, I'll go take a look. But as far as the height handling and the wave propagation aspects of Meteorology, that was encouraging to me as a winter enthusiast because it at least showed some respect for the NAO hemisphere in driving deeper centers E and not W of New England. Dec 13.14 and 17.18 ...and at this range, regardless of the surface particular design it's still more about the mid level height scaffolding ...ens etc, anyway and worry about that other shit later.

Yeah... by the way, - the previous missive is by no means a commentary that devalues Soccer - that 'should' be clear to the reader? The missive is more a tongue-in-cheek satire ( of sorts ... shy of real supposition ) into the fleeting attention span of Americans, and why-for Soccer doesn't carry the same popularity. You know... ( and ugh) we live in an present zeitgeist where it's 'fun' ( some how) to take exception for seemingly least excuse to do so -... it's called 'recreational outrage' but I digress. Personally, I like the game. I watched the Americans ( and Brazil...as I have friends from that region). I will continue to do so. ...well, apparently not the Americans - oops. My futility missive had merit after all. haha. No, but the usefulness of the game to world, and the U.S. slowness to wake up to that, doesn't say anything about the game itself.

Funny... no sooner did I post that muse... the U.S. hero'ed in a goal some how. Wah waah See? That's how the online social media game is played - chances to win or lose on every play, not just the game.

May as well go ahead and contribute to derailing a thread that's the worst kind of evil: perpetual optimism that never produces.... I played soccer in my youth. Between the ages of 10 and 13, I played those four years. I wasn't good. I wasn't bad. Mostly I just didn't pay attention. Even while the game was being played, whether I was running around or not, I remember being there ... but not much else. I think I may have once even 'headed' a ball successfully, not intending to do so. I was watching a CB rolling out over a horizon when the object found my head... 'Uhph! oh? right' and the coach said 'way to go'. The game is boring by American cultural wiring - it's like trying to propagate an MJO wave out out of the marine sub-continent, into a La Nina footprint... only with soccer, the energy there is out of phase with the energy of the people. We need faster dynamic switches. It's just in our cultural nature. Events need to trigger excitement, because they have elements of uncertainty that really prove to 'save the day', vastly more frequently ... perhaps right down to the scale of the momentary play on the 'ball'. Quick, expedient retries at glory. The next time down the court. The next snap of the football. The next delivery of the puck down to the other end of the ice. I can't tell you how many times I've seen 17 points scored in the last 5 minutes of an NFL game, steal victory from the monster of defeat. In Soccer? I can't tell you how many times I've seen who ever scores first, wins... proving the the rest of the game a futile slog fest; the first goal happens in the first 10 of 90 eternal minutes of the affair... That is just not the way we are wired. It's amazing really that MLB has survived, though it is faltering ( most likely causally related ). The excitement of NFL, NBA, and to some lesser extent, NHL ... these sports either knew this about the population, or just were lucky to have evolved within the target demographic they have. Their products directly tap the 'it can still happen' nerve, at the pace that is required to keep the attention of this culture centered. Soccer may never take on the appeal to the common populate beyond having reason for parents to vent to one another over the travails of living in a sped up, tense dynamic seeking hurried culture ( ironically) that's equally unsatisfying to them. Once in while, you get that soccer dad or mom that gets in the face of the ref and embarrasses everyone - but all they are really doing is trying to find the control they don't have over their unsatisfying job or home-life ... using an event that is supposed to be teaching children something else entirely. That doesn't really substantiate the game, but to that hot headed parent's taking exception over their brat's deserved penalty kick, a venting therapy sure felt completely necessary to them.

Likely to dive south from that position ...

It is ...still a ways out there, but that D8 synopsis is a bona fide "Montreal Express" ... talking flash freezing pond and small lake surfaces with that set up. wow.

just fyi ... the control run - which is code for George's basement I guess - has something of a historic nature D14 up the EC. Establishes a pressure depth not seen in the PHL-NYC span in decades outside of the tropics, and maybe there too. Down 963 I think but the resolution's a little mottled. The mid level ( 500 mb) hgts core down 510 dm centered over Baltimore. ... It's doing that in a 'relaxed' mode of the NAO ( ) too ... ( wink is for everyone). It's just that the relaxation is happening perhaps a 3-5 days sooner, hence 13.14.15 for a big dog. I mean really big dog. Talkin' St Bernard/bull mastiff hybrid got with Great Dane It's D11-12 though... It's not a deterministic produce of course, but whatever they do in "controlling" the run, I would be curious how far they had to really push the input metrics to get to that solution.

If I may add a little to this… Similar logic: I don’t really even care if we miss an event in the first two weeks of December when we’re looking up the mt at an avalanche of possibilities - seasonally yeah some years are really really bad… They just don’t “avalanche” but point is there’s three months or possibly four to work things out

Yeah we’ll … it’s always been a possibility with this. I realize you’re kidding but the laws of physics and nature don’t become irrelevant – the NAO will tend to relax at some point - it won’t sit there like a brick in the atmosphere. So even if that one compresses it us not likely they all will thereafter but then again, there’s no guarantee the NAO will even be a factor well out in time. The ensemble suggested it will last a while though. Point is it will pulse in and out. The good systems will happen when it’s in d(NAO)

I don’t think anybody required caution flags in the first place so not sure where that’s coming from?

Yeah man the number of individual GEF members that are flat out showing a strong East Coast system presentation between the 12th and the 15th has increased over the last couple of cycles in the 12z series. unfortunately… 10 days is vastly too early to start a thread to put it nicely. That would be interesting though wouldn’t it? If we actually do come up with a decent event in that timeframe – it would be interesting because there’s basically no predictive model skill during this recent time, yet we’ve been watching that for a long time.

This may seem kind a bush but… This is one of those situation‘s were the colorization of these charts is a value add. If one looks at that region immediately astride the Delmarva there, notice how it’s slightly darker than south of Nova Scotia? If we loop through these three days in question you can see that darkens and then lightens as comes back out in time. So that suggests that the mean or blend may be deepening more than just the heights in that region - it is implied possibility.

That’s a piece of shit. you’re telling us that we should rather want to deal with the thread the needle paranoid anxiety attack…? Man you got a dark heart hahaha. Dude I’m totally kidding, but nah. I’d like to see a slowing breaking wave underneath our latitude with a nice park high pressure north of Maine that’s what you want to look for

Although in my defense… I didn’t bring that up I was just responding to somebody else and like I said in that post it was tongue-in-cheek? Hey man melt away …like I said melts our great entertainment; the more angry somebody is the funnier it is to watch them. Muah hahahaha

A primitive version of that kind of “forecast system attempting to outthink the models” took place before the 1997 December 23 snow bomb. Remember the, at the time, ETA model, was forecasting a thermal profile like -1+2+4 at Logan, 980 to sfc For some reason all the models had the surface temperature even in interior going above freezing and the entire event was also drastically under with QPF, BTW. But as it were …it got 19-like cold at night and then suddenly right at dawn the clouds advanced all at once and we “cold capped” Not 1035 but there was like a 1028 Mbar high park ideally just north west of Maine. Forecast from just 12hrs earlier wad 1-3” of glop ending as misery mist 22” later, an event that will live on as the greatest short term debacle bust in the history of weather forecasting infamy, and that even includes the telegraph days. I’d even put that over Galveston. No just kidding …nothing beats Galveston but-

Yeah like Will said yesterday to… whomever that was, we’re going to have to probably rely on shorter duration lead time on these “threats” unfortunately. And in the meantime … Hope that the operational runs give us some fake cinema to methadone in the interim ha ha ha

I also think that GFS is not a very good tool for assessing during blocking patterns. I know the model’s made a lot of improvements over the last decade and it’s now perhaps competitive. However, I still at times sense a tendency for it to stretch the x-coordinate and be to progressive especially out in time. I also noticed that tends to accumulate too much colder Heights on the polar side of the ambient jet. I think may be why in enhances the velocities out in time and is what caused that stretching to occur - suppositional. Anyway if you’re in a blocking slowing pattern I think that the native bias, however vestigial exists in the Gfs it may be fighting against that.

Having said that just compare the overnight day 8 9 and 10 of the operational GFS along the 40th parallel - that demonstrates what bad continuity looks like there’s too much uncertainty as to how things are going to orient from the Pacific across the continent.

People are into the operational shows not for substantive analysis, they’re into it for the cinema/thrillseeking. Haha.

In totality this GFS solution is kind of wonky looking because you don’t typically take cyclones on an anti cyclonic trajectory and have them do what that’s doing

Yeah man that’s got road blocked turning into a blue snow scenario written all over it

Mmm I would not sweat that solution at all seriously don’t. You can clearly see the stress of the NAO pattern structure forcing that back south as it tries to clear our longitude just like the 0Z and the 6Z predecessor solutions did too. And all of that period of time is going to be subjected to that kind of forcing - the correction vector still points South. Until there is a coherent reason to switch the direction of that vector I really see taking something significantly west of New England through the great lakes as being very dubious

Oh it’s no contest… Not even close. People who complain about melts are insufferable. I mean we’re being tongue-in-cheek here… Still, melts have an entertainment value. Some delicious turns a phrase can come out of people who are in a state of apoplexy. But the complainers? They are curiously disingenuous people that chastise others for melting, but are in fact melting themselves. That’s just the way they do it – and it’s actually technically a form of gaslighting too. They don’t want to face they're own failing so they defer to targeting others and vent that way.

We can laugh at this is buuut … it is quite right and just about perfect as an early risk assessment. we’ve been talking about the run up to mid month for about 10 days at this point. I mean it’s not just what was in the models there’s other techniques of a personal nature coming from me but other people have been on it too for their own whatever they do. And for winter enthusiast, it is unfortunately a slight chance - but you know …that’s gonna be true whenever we’re talking about a 10 day outlook and this is really 11 12 and 13. I think we’re also kind of in a cultural adjustment when it comes to the technology because the models are so much vastly better we’ve gotten used to expecting certain signals to really manifest at extended leads. But Jesus the 13th to the 15th is still over 10 days away

Yeeeeah I would not count on the MJO helping out much until further notice. It’s really in a destructive interference with the footprint of the Pacific. One thing folks need to understand about the MJO it does not force the pattern; it augments the pattern if/when the pattern is receptive. Otherwise it doesn’t augment shit. Crass way to put it but it either adds or subtracts from an ongoing pattern via constructive vs destructive interference. All of the left side RMM wave phase spaces are destructive until further notice … which is why we keep seeing the wave collapse into the COD region abruptly as it tries to enter phase 8 from 7? That’s the footprint of the Pacific canceling out the MJO, and thus its ability to influence the pattern goes right along with it.