Typhoon Tip

Looks to me like the 12z GFS is buckin' for a complete exclusion from that warm up next week at all at this point. Slams a violent BD/n-door front thru so aggressively that it pinches the warm south right under that ridge. Main front comes thru a day and a half later and we're still frosting at night. Welcome to April - you were warned

The other aspect I am noticing is ...well two-fold. One, this has moved up in time. It's not been temporal-stable in the guidance. It was supposed to be ~ the 15th through the 20th ( the end uncertain...)... Now it's more like the 13th through the 16th - so it has also shrunk. This overall trend to me suggests the models are attempting to morph this into just a warm sector given time. It is all still 7+ days away... Two, the models are also speeding up the hemisphere a little bit. Not as much so as January, no, but as that extended range has come from D11-15 to D7 to 11 ... the flow is trying to add progressive behavior. That's probably why this has moved closer in time by a couple three days, but it tells me that we are not really ready to surge out of winter into a deep spring - I was thinking that may occur with this thing, but my confidence on that being the case is a bit rattled based on these observations. Again...it's a week+ away ... The the models will wax and wane in allowing seasonality into the runs.

06z GFS might be a little less coherent with BDFs but ... again, our climate begs the caveat emptor - man... you assume any 70 to 80 ridge housing opportunity ends up not an opportunity, excluding everywhere NE of NYC( and no snow either. give that up).

I credit the state of the art of the technology in modeling to be so petty detailed in mangling the surface PP around BD presentation from 7 days away the way all models are for next week's warm head "fake" - we'll see on the later. That's pretty good. When I was coming of Met age in the 1990's, ...no model had much of any clue about those sort of no warm or fun for you features at all. They only saw the larger synoptic ridge.

Whatever ...stop trying set the table, dude. If a BD comes through, it's 42 and slate gray skies clear to NYC. LOL c'mon man.

Having said that... May 2005 is still the worst month that has ever happened in the space-time continuum existence of this planet. Ironically... no April has ever been that bad.

Yeah... who was I mentioning this too - can't remember. But there's probably like 1::12 or 1::9 type of return rate on median passable Aprils, otherwise, the more common rendition falls beneath whatever 'median' is in this context - so some subjectivity to that. I don't think 3 days nicking 70, while the other 20 some odd days are < 60 ... ass loads of cold rain... NE wind days ... putrid car top slush, saves any face for example. I've just been wilted too many times. I'm not going to stick the flower of optimism out there ever again for this piece of shit climate anus that seems to shit in your bed in direct deliberate proportion to said optimism. Like I said last page or two ago, you count on the BDF screwing it up, whether it is on the model or not, in a scenario like that next week. Then, it's a daily elimination game to remove having one occur, day by day.

Mm... there's personal preference to that statement - it doesn't apply to all. I've seen open cobalt blue skies at 44 F with strong NE wind on the coast ... in MAY - if it can suck donkey ballz that big in May, April is definitely a piece of shit in the sun sometimes. Just sayn' ...I admit today is a beaut, and tomorrow likely too - but these are not really 'normal' in this particular calendar space. Speaking of which ... next Tuesday on the Euro and GGEM looks like utopia on tap.

Dooring is unfortunately always part of any extended probability at this time of year. You almost assume there will be one, and really it is a matter of eliminating the probability ... day by day -

Tomorrow and Tuesday are likely to be dandy days. Light offshore oriented flow, combining d-slope with April sun would salvage the mid 40s for that matter, but here? - we're talking 55 to 60 anyway. MET MOS is 55-ish at KFIT/KASH/KBED for tomorrow and at least that high to 59 for Tuesday. It'll feel warmer than it is with that searing higher sun's zenith just dumping radiation into the environment with shimmering vantages and wafting micro-parcels of super adiabatic warmth. Basically, nape soothing on 'roids. It sucks not getting that weather today, but knowing of April's climate prison, we take whatever paroles we are offered and go with it. Still liking/eying the mid month for warm anomaly. How much so cannot be ascertained at this range.. but, personally I suspect the 'correction vector' is pointed toward warmer than the operational runs. Significant cratering of the PNA index mean that is coherently visible in the synoptic/spatial layout of both the EPS and GFS ... usually with that kind of weightiness the operational runs will shed noise as the time gets closer and thus allows the signal to finally punch through in the deterministic solutions. It's 10 days ... maybe transition starts around D 8... It's kind of like the trying the pull a winter storm out of the modeling ether, only here... we're trying to find heat domes - the most fragile of them all. This signal has been persistent, fwiw -

Just sayn' ... today's solar incidence is about equivalent to Sep 8 .. 7

If the pattern successfully flips warm between the 10th and 13ths and lasts indeterminately in mild to warm form, from mid month and beyond, it will NOT be because "April is fine" I mean, how much f'n abuse does a person have to keep taking over the span of life before they stop pretending bullshit. It will be because it is an anomaly relative to the obvious, inarguable truth about the climatology of April in New England.

Yeah the operational model versions have all trended - GGEM a little lagging ... - toward the erstwhile numerical teleconnections. I posted my annoyance over the fact that they previously were not. ... I suspect the undulant trough trying to exit the EC is still too deep, though. It's a minor aspect to the total manifold, which is a pretty starkly contrasting warm pattern - I real seasonal 'stage' in the climb out. It seems there really is nothing after mid month to suggest we get another frost/freeze supporting air mass. That doesn't mean we won't piss shit the dailies with cut-off through mid May ... but in so far as 'annoying cold,' it would appear that after this week's nastiness ... everywhere east of the Rockies and S of ~ 50 or even 60 N has 550+ hydrostatic heights and bottom latitude +PP ... which means west wind. We warm - ...agree with Scott ... 12th but again, if the models are holding on to the trough too long over next weekend, we may blur the transition in sun made days.

Indexes say we bust into an open warm continent mid month ... 'mentioned this the other day. Operational versions don't wanna bite. Particularly the GFS - jesus. But I've bitched about this model in the past, amply .. and how it holds onto blue hydrostatic heights and winter, in any range beyond D 7, usually until the 4th of July ...at which time it gives us 10 days of summer, before it starts bringing frost and grauple air masses across the Lakes to the 300+ hour runs. Sarcasm aside... either the operational runs will start to cave, or the telecons will modulate away from a neutral NAO/-PNA

You should have that be "The collective forum user" vs "Snow chances" in the winter, and "The collective forum user" vs "Convection chances" in the summer.

I wonder ... were those more nocturnally owned? I physically recall both 2010 and in particular, 2012 as being warm to touch ... This year did not seem that way to me. I'm not not sure what my own perception problem is with this, but it didn't feel above normal. Now, in fairness to 2012, ...that March was like "climate freak" above normal. Being +8 to +14 is some kind of New England version of Pac NW only in March ( so as usually ...we experience our "extraordinary" heat while no one is looking) ... What is it about this region - everything's gotta be under the radar, or while no one's looking. I want a 10 day mustard bomb heat wave for f sake! From my A.C. protected enclave... I want to "experience" the 4 middle days = 105/79, 107/84, 109/86, 106/87 followed by a BD that tanks the temp to 91 because it's so ridiculous the Earth just radiatively saturates the BD air... Then it can 90, 90 ...84 ... Seriously though... I question whether the sun at this latitude can do that with the bottom of the boundary layer dropping out east of the els... It's like it has to input so much energy, and with DP ... it may be geological limitation ? interesting...

It’s weird yeah. I mean the last three days were no side of green up weather conditions … although the suns bright. Yet the red maples up this way are budding.

No one's asking me but .. I don't think it's "as much" of a fantasy as is typically the case for this range - though I wouldn't pin adjective to it like 'torch' per se. Heh. But there is multiple signal sources for broadly systemic/hemispheric obliteration of that which we've been observing. Namely, an R-wave re-positioning from Pacific arond to eastern N/A, and the retreat N of the westerlies, by mid month. In the meantime, dailies look to me like we continue to oscillate for the next ten days. The the models' ideas of the atmosphere attempt to fight off radiative/seasonal forcing with fake-out cold storms that just end up rhea like. Back side bud belayer air masses that flip around to nape days ... with posting mood swinging accordingly. ..ha, rinse repeat. If we can get a few hours in the garden or a decent bike ride a couple of days, we'll call it a success... But that signal mid month is not only in all ens systems, it's also hugely suggestive in La Nina climo. 1976 ...2002 .. to name a couple, but there is a strong statistical correlation to end-season La Nina lag sending up early warmth across eastern N/A. Those years perhaps being excessive, mere examples. I wouldn't bother with magnitude from this range as it pertains to this month. But heh... in CC with Pac NW type events, to mention everywhere else in the world where attribution studies link CC to these synergistic heat events that have been materializing ( relative to native climates ) ... I wouldn't be inclined to hold back, either. We'll see. In short, live ens means are directing toward a result that alights upon that La Lina climate signal, ...doing so during upwardly mobile ongoing CC rage? We've spent 30 days (figuring out ways how to not snow) in a cold hemispheric look... Yet, still managing a couple of 70 degree lollypops... but relative to all, this anomaly is borrowing time. Any venture of guess in what happens when the westerlies suddenly escape N and we balloon protective warm dome everywhere S?

GGEM tried to warn that today was a 'warm sector rhea' day. No hope of realized the warm potential -

I guess I'm odd but that looks like the atmosphere's in the aggressive finish of a hard f for some reason.. 'oh oh yes yes more more'

As expected ...solid recovery this afternoon though. Probably we high T at 5 sun provided - if it dims with high cloud, no. But 20 to 25 to 50 or near so is pretty solid. We don't drop tonight... Tomorrow is still not clear. Supports low 70s easily, but the warm sector looks dirty.

You know I see this sort of ludicrousness a lot with these D10 to 15 ranges... ( uh, a different ludicrousness than just the ludicrous range LOL) It's almost like the model tech has finally gotten better with the lower tropospheric physical interplay with real BL inhibitors ... so it just applies that forcing at all times now. But in reality, sometimes that stuff does happen with bend around damming this, ..and BD that, but sometimes it doesn't - I'm saying it seems this way.. The GFS seems to go too far, biased to create 0 ability to bring warm air in here with f'in it up with any way it can.

Wtf is that and why are we surprised ?

I'm a little suspicious of Boston's high reading on the 2nd and 3rd day of that heat wave. I was just crushin' the nerd over in the weather charts from those days of lore, and there really wasn't any impetus to kick the wind around E at Logan ( ... was the station Logan back then? ) Synoptically, that was a pervasive heat anomaly spread out all over the Lakes- OV - MA - NE regions. The PP implied a west wind, right out of the dragon's ass of Boston, where it was 91 while NYC was 101 on 3rd. The synoptics of/when what happened typically makes those locations more competitive than that. Then the next day on the 4th, it was 107 at NYC and "just" 97 at Boston? Thing about the 4th though ...a front came down at some point during the day, so it may have capped that high - not sure ... sometimes those boundaries dry it out and that allows the temp, if anything, to bounce up before it cools later. Little tedious but interesting -Ray loves this shit, especially some random day in history a light year before he was born.

I'd take Superstorm93's Euro numbers in a heart beat under April sun. Obviously it won't be sunny every day of that. But having a "climo" look, while all numbers are actually a pube flopped over the warmer side, is both appealing if/when it is sunnier, ...but also is typical of CC era. Aside: It just bothers me how I go look at the climate page at NWS Boston near the end of every month going back many years... and 80 or 90% of the months since 2000 ...some 260 month's worth, are always positive. These 30-years mean methods are belying "rate of change" as a significance. It's not so much that it is above normal, it's the acceleration of it that is the tell. The last hope for any snow this season ( synoptic ) appears to end via telecon spread ... roughtly the 5th of April. We're going to toast up a bit this week ..balancing out the 'soothing' nadir we're caressing our way through yesterday and today... But after that, we slip into a more typical early April kind of marginal atmosphere, where it can be 62 and sunny, but inject any theta-e into the column with UVM and it's wet snow. That lasts perhaps 5 days... The operational runs that go out longer than that don't really reflect the extent of warming S of the Canadian border, suggestively offered by the GEFs -based numbers. The NAO having neutralized and tending positive; the PNA is negative and going down. I have seen a couple of GFS runs that are attempting to flat ridge east of 100W across the country in the la la range - it could be an early attempt.