Typhoon Tip

Managed 54 here. Sun won’t be denied … sorta

Didn't mean to undermine the significance of the '87 event. Like I said ... the snow aspect is a separate matter - so consider the post a separate facet, too. This air mass would dump a powder if it it could.

To me it means less that there is no snow in the air or underfoot - that's a separate aspect to just whether or not the air mass in situ would support - which this does with latitude to give even. I mean as PF was just showing ... -10 to -14 C 850s ? It's just as bad(good) depending on one's covet. I mean this may be even colder air mass - not sure... Just sayn', that coulda been a marginal atmosphere when that potent mid level impulse settled through the trough.

There's also room for perspective - Teeeechnically this is an anomalous air mass. So... it's not like we should be couching this and/or snow into any sense of "normalcy" for April 28. Thing is, 2000+ elevations ... will have a climo that is cut out from the valley floors but you know that...blah blah notwithstanding. In fact, it's 44 in what has evolved into a partly to mostly sunny splashed mid day down here, where it is climate to be 65... Even if we make 50, talking -15 during the existential period of the diurnal cycle. Maybe not shocking, but definitely unjust - haha. It may snow at those elevations up your way into May, but it can do so up that way without it being in the mid 40s east of the Berk's down here, just the same. Ha, ...know what it is? It's like we shouldn't be shocked that it is shockingly bad - lol

Annyway ... luckily Sunday's synoptic outlook has been consistent in recent guidance. MEX MOS is over 65 at KFIT/KASH/KBED, ... Synoptics would support at least 7 more than that - maybe this 12z will have shed the climate weighting. I dunno, but the 2-meter Euro clearly is just the adiabatic/BL mixing temp - it's a retarded product because it doesn't even attempt the slope temp at the bottom of the sounding that goes sharply right for several degrees. So that 66 could easily be 70 .. 72 with zip cloud RH, and +11 925 mb

Guys... no one is shocked. People just don't like it. People will tend to complain when they eat shit. I think maybe you folks are shocked that people complain about the taste of shit? That's interesting - haha

Dude ... admit that this day sucks for you too - k' ? jesus. You're such a gas-lighter in your posts and that's why you have a lot of detractors in here. I know 'cuz I do the same thing LOL

alright .. i must of missed something lol. Did some idiot make the impertinent jest that this was somehow anything other than an asshole piece of shit typical April ? hahaha

And I say this despite the splashes of thus made irrelevant sun of the day ... this is a rock-bottom arrival, like only New England spring is capable of abusing. It was like the goal of the pattern all alone to get to this nadir. 40s and wind a week before entry into perennial solar maximum is some kind of bottom dweller day that is almost mocking the former aspect. The models were on to it. They had been marketing a shit look for a long time... really going back over two weeks. But it seemed every third or forth day, would bounce back - though with steady losses. 66 ... next one 63, 59 .. 56. Gradually over time ... here we are.

Luckily it's still on the table

God we f’n hope so

Is it me or at a glance does Eric Fisher's Twitter avatar look like a the owner of some porn production company ?

GFS agrees over the weekend ... okay - Almost identical metrical set up heading into Sunday. FIgure for 65-70 F over-achievement.

yeah...Sunday almost utopia. Euro's been consistent with that look over the weekend. Not sure of the GFS - I tend to ignore it outside of 4 days because of its insistence to shed seasonal change and get back to January that it carries on with even in hot years. jesus - Pretty sure whatever machine guidance has will bust cool if Sunday synopsis works out tho. All main metrics on board. Full sun ( low RH all typical ceiling heights), deep layer cold-abandoned NW flow is D-slope. The 850s go from negative to positive during the mid day on the Euro - likely because the sun zapped super adiabats are pulverizing the cold. May be a pretty impressive diurnal? The Euro 2-meter is the adiabatic temp but it doesn't calculate the 100 meter slope temp, which accounting for that would foist the high toward the upper 60s under an intense sun sky. That's the way to make 67 feel a whole lot warmer than it really is.

All seasonal forecast based upon historic climatological inference are likely to be less correct, then the same practice might yield ...30 or so years ago. Cannot base current seasonality on climate past; to attempt to do so mean assuming climate = delta(climate)

It seemed pretty likely that would happen before the models got around to 'inching' it east enough to spare the region the worst. "I realize I spent time opining ( ..or 'whining' either way heh ) about the -NAO retrograding earlier. If the retrograde doesn't happen as quickly as as the previous runs ...that cut-off rhea wheel might end up farther out to sea like the predecessor just did. .." It seems there's been a real sensitivity with the NAO, right vs wrong over the last several years. It's like the worst performing domain of all telecon's. Anyway, there are/were other reasons for that presumption, not just the NAO. The faster than normal hemisphere is still going on. It's like even though we are technically "more" blocky than the winter... the flow around them is still limiting their influence ... correcting blocks along/eroding them quicker. I wouldn't trust the big eastern Canadian cold overwhelming the sun idea of the Euro's extended either.

Through about D7 ... as is typically the case with that cluster, the op and ens means are nondispersive. Heh, meaning they don't look a whole helluva lot different - the op is just more amplified at local scales. Differences get more notable by D8, though. The euro has a stem wound mid level "invention" approaching the Lakes which you can tell it its model enhanced bs. That same feature acquired all that momentum from no source when the leading sequenced D5 into 6 --> ...Something I've noticed about the Euro for many years actually - the 'auto bomb' effect. Any days beyond D6 are amplitude suspect with ridges and troughs. There may be a whirl there but not that eye- popping. Anyway, the eps mean barely acknowledges that even exist so the op and mean diverge hugely on that, ...which unfortunately f's up the rest of the run.

I think it maybe has something to do with the run cycle, 00z vs 12z Not sure whether this has been hugely consistent but I have come to roll eyes prior to looking at the 12z … It seems to attempt theses seasonal rollbacks, then oscillate back at 00z. Not sure why that is but was musing something to do with being on the pattern fence, during transition season no less, then processing the diabatic/diurnal heat budget. Heh … as though the 12z run has no radiative forcing.

There are differences tho ... They may not leap out at the observer, but the 540 dam thicknesses retreats for the most part, N of the border with Canada... Other than very brief incursion over small CAA jet regions that don't even last the diurnal sun attempt to knive briefly in. That's basically taking over after the cut off vortex is finished claiming another New England climo week. That canvas would send any clear days to 70 at this point in the year. GFS doesn't like clear days but it's likely full of shit with all those bowling balls in 4 days or whatever invented crap it's doing to keep it cold despite warming in all directions -

I guess that's the best we can do. If there were/are very low conditionally forced, elevated of DP air layers their likely too finite to be picked up by the sounding resolution above. As far as the thickness though - whoa! 581.1 ... You mentioned well mixed. I still wonder if modern industrial farming/hydro practices make those lofty hgts more common than pre eras. You know, in the summer I pay attention to thickness over DCA/NYC/BOS ...I've noticed over the years, that incidences of 580 are less common than they are out there. interesting . We can put up 577's with 101/78 diurnal spreads ...it's not a hard ceiling but it seems to press right around there and gets difficult - although in recent summers beginning 2016, I have seen more 580 on NAM grids. But it seems right around there we start sacrificing T's in lieu of TD

It did ... 'been noticing the last couple of days ( actually), that the Euro really doesn't look too bad - actually after 4. That's not a long wait, really. We actually could get really lucky with that spring cut-off gyre that sets up S of NS. It's trended E just enough ( thank you very much...) compared to the original idea where it anchored on Cape Cod until your kids graduate... Being on the western edge of the circulation, we may just get sun through high clouds and a D-slope flow to offset the chilly 850s. I mean it's not fantastic - but it's a whole 'nother universe to being 44 in mist. Then after there's a bit of a paradigm shift - albeit subtle, still enough that the 850 mb 0C "asshole"therm finally retreats N to the border with southern Canadian. The Euro rolls out some 10+C 850 mb plumes within that as anyone can plainly see but if any day under sun this high and hot will send our temps where we have not been yet this year - day's 6 thru 10 of that 00z run.

Today is good to be fair, though - per my subjective take. Yeah, could use it maybe 10 warmer, but it tapped 63 when the sun cut through the high milk ceilings. And with light winds barely noticeable under that, it was fine. It will not be that way mid week through late Friday ... Bitch then - Afterward, using the Euro - if one dares - it didn't look too bad to me after D5. Having the vortex in that position over the weekend could end up being surprisingly nice here, with tendencies for d-slope flow. If the ceilings allow some sun through .. No 70s tho.

I'd be willing to wonder if y'all aren't getting a kind of over-top effect from this sort of synoptic layout...

It's all subjective, of course... but, "I" ( and probably there are others that share in this opinion - ) could care less about achieving legit summer weather. As in proper 85/62 ? - not sure many think that's part of any expectation now, anyway. I/we just want more than a single day where it lolly pops to 73, only to face-smack the next day at 52 F in sun showers mixed with graupel. Like a week of even 70/50 with partly sunny nape splashing.... Problem is, we're less likely to get even that merciful reach-around in April, either. It just takes and takes, a circumstance made interminably more frustrating by the fact that we're all of 13 days from the perennial entry date into the solar MAXimum. On May 8. "April is the cruelest month," I guess.

Mm ... in spirit? no ... by hard anal retentive focus on the number 75, okay - It has already been 70+ at many of those stations in that list, since February 15th. Part of this/that course of discussion may be on me - I gathered an 'impression' over ... Iowa(however it's spelled -)'s post that we must be lacking warmth. That may not have been the correct "intent" of what he/she was after when he/she made the statement, but I had a moment to think about it and thought ...no. This is just a cool pattern. Let's not throw hands by over stating it's significance. Nothing's changed since March 31: April is a piece of shit month and we simply experience why. Some very very rare years, that is less apt the description. Like, 1976 ... 2002... maybe 2009? whatever. But this - to me - comes off as a typical dildo April behavior. Like you said, it's AN? Some subjectivity too, I don't think not being 75 (yet) is very significant in and of its self - comes off as luck. If the whole month was ABN, then it has more gravity.