Typhoon Tip

The way this winter went ? Winter won't die if it means drillin one last tortured blue baller BD ...seemingly on life support just so's it gets to do that. Everywhere SW-W-NW of us, we are surrounded by a rampart of 80F 39 in still air under slate gray skies east of the Berks

Way to early for it ... buuut, it does remind me. I'm interested in whether NW NE and Southern Ontario/Quebec host late April thru early June heat waves again. I've noticed that tendency over recent years, to go along with a lot of other subtle/under the radar CC -related likeliness ... strongly suspect to be so. What happens is residual fast flow curls around high pressure nodes in that area, with any SW/W heat expulsion getting caught in side... The Mid Atlantic to coastal New England doesn't fair so "hot" because said curl wraps around and pulls a tongue of cooler 850 mb air from the Maritimes .. all the way down to where it turns NW and comes in on a SSE flow mash up dimmed warming. Like PHL-BOS will be 84/55, but 96/48 at BTV so to speak

Not as though to be taken seriously ..per se ( eh hm), but did you see the 00z Euro operational 10 day layout... That's a full on SW heat expulsion/release - or in the minimum, an analog behavior. Centered on the 15th -17th, that's what has become of the original Ides signal from a week ago. LOL ... Pretty much polar opposite. Thing is,... the EPO was supposed to behave differently. It was even modeled to - sort of - do so, enough that it might go ahead and punch up the +PNA ... With erstwhile -EPO having loaded cold over Canada and near-by, boom... right? Wrong That migration in the mass-field hasn't since improved coherency in the models. It has in fact... decayed. Now, the EPO blizzum blazzum retros back to Kamchatka...and the Pac punches through with a zonal flow that's bottling the cold JB or above latitude, and flooding the mid lat continent S pretty much in spring. Even the GFS operational has a couple of huge warm thickness plumes - Unfortunately for the winter-lorn, without that EPO relay into the PNA ... I don't see anything out there that renders us back to a March winter. In fact, the opposite when looking a that standard PNA/AO/NAO metrics. That, plus the last 10 years of proving that we can 80 at this time of year... As an aside, that's gotta be CC related. Sorry... Too often, regardless of any seasonal telecon, air ocean or coupled, that has happened... I have no eye-rollin' inhibition in adding that factor to this too. Euro likely doesn't verify? But I don't say that because of climate, any more. Only by virtue of D 10 uncertainty, alone. The former proves it certainly can and will happen if given the synoptics.

Ah let 'em have their solace man. We could very well be writing the mortem pages of this winter's tortured novel, anyway .. Lol. I mean it's snark humor, but it's kinda of true. If what I am seeing overnight is any signal of worth .. that critter may be a last hope to resuscitate this palliative 10 days remaining. You know ...I've come to sense over the years, there really is like a post mortem angst at this time of year in some folk. But, the crucible of time purifies this the engagement, in this particular social media platform, to be a concentration of those heads. It's a real S.A.D. experiment by accident of it's existence. There's a semblance here of "negative S.A.D." ... It's real condition -seriously. It afflicts some 10 to 15% of the background population ... Those of that minority are equally "jilted" by the loss of 'darkness', colder stormier times - essentially the opposite of the majority S.A.D. types that get pissy in the autumn. When I first muse-read of that I was intrigued ... Intrigued because the description was so spot on matching the tamber of posting content. The music that happens around here when either, storms miss, season begins to exhibit migration toward spring, ...or just any warm look overall. But ... this isn't intended to gas-light anyone. I have shared in this in my personal head-space when in my youth - or some variant of it. I did not like thinking or facing the prospect of dwindling snow pack and escaping storm chances, or how the sun became undeniable more illuminating in mid February --> ... It's just that as I've gotten older my wiring has changed on all that. I just have become someone that can change geek gears on a dime, equally dorking out on heat waves( cold waves) respectively... Except Aprils - .. never can for some reason forgive Satan's rectum month

reminded me of April '97 at 500 mb -

Heh ...this is typical of March's in the last 10 years.. which is probably fair to say it's typical of CC era - much to eye-rollin' chagrin of those that don't exactly deny... but equivalent post pursing their lips and dosing their anuses with Preparation-H whenever they have to face it. We start getting one and done 65ers in a fast flow warm sectors, probably as the new order. Maybe you'll even get 2 or 3 days at a pop... But they go back to pointless cold. Every march since 2012 except maybe 2018 ..? But that year did it February so take your pick. I guess I'm just musing that we should expect these kind of warm bursts this time of year. We've already started getting them going back 3 weeks ago. It's been about ever 5 days. They'll be every 3 days by the 20th... and lasting longer ... until BD season kicks off in April and winter begins...

Well... I could pretty much gamble huge sums of money this 18z operation GFS won't verify that way... It's hard to believe a 965 mb low's gonna grind along the White's cordillera, experiencing no resistance along the way, carving out a bombogen hole < 950 mb as it buzz saws the summit off Mt Katahdin like that. That's like ... not going to happen.

66

64 ... up 5 last hour. Probably good for another 4 F on top, considering the winds are light WSW under 925 mb T of 14C ...that'd support low 70s in the 2-m actually.

I can see that... We got regional LI's down -2 tomorrow.

Exactly! ...only like 20 F down the scale but it's really quite analogous to that. yes -

That's actually a recovery of the PNA there... Remember yesterday(this morning ) discussing how the EPO didn't look like it would relay as well, but that is actually quite a bit better than the last 2 days prior - that "might" be enough to signal there. It does time for a 06z/12z GFS blend ...about 168 -190 hrs. Just sayn' but ...there's also been a remarkably persistent tendency have the next run go out of it's way to seemingly constructively interfere with one's optimism.. .LOL... so there's that too -

It's real... I'm singularly impressed with how abrupt this warm frontal intrusion has either thrust into the region... or just abruptly mixed out. Probably some of both. It was 36 at 7am here. You know, I was looking at the hi res vis loop, ...pissed off and disgruntled at the delay of warm arrival this morning... Yet, you could see that granular texture in the cleared areas of eastern NY... Crispy edges to cloud debris is very summer like. In fact, when the fog lifted here actually about 2.5 hours ago, it revealed a sky that looked like a May tapestry under alto level elevated ceilings. But it was still just 44 F at the time though. A splash of sun came through about 11...and it was 51 very fast. The air started to smell like summer b.o. a little... 62 with mostly sun right now. sorry - It's just I think these sudden seasonal exit-entrance scenarios in the spring are fascinating. I mean, I've seen it go from 91 to 40 in 2 hours fro BDs.... I've seen it go from 36 to 66 in a warm frontal instrusion like today.

If we can get the NAM's RH at 700 mb to dry out a tad, tomorrow could be just as sweet. Buuuut...not to deb down it but it will make Tuesday that much more annoying lol. Ah well ...

Yup ...good call. 61 and mostly sun here out of no where. Like walked through a door into a Narnia world compared to 2 hours ago. 36 at dawn here, with murk and fog. 61 and sun and probably heading for 65 ( classic MOS bust) ... So despite my warm bust' post a while ago, it appears warm front was more delayed .. It's funny how this happens though sometimes. The warm front comes through, and it goes from a delay/busty, to correcting actually warmer than guidance. interesitng

It's really hard to ignore the vast deconstruction of the EPO handling that's insidiously claimed the otherwise favorable look we had been erstwhile tracking. It seems to erode ... slowly, under the radar, spanning five days ... Now, both the EPS and GEFs ( centered on day 10 ) have a dying EPO ridge receding back toward Kamchatka... with a zonal, velocity rich flow, spanning the entire hemisphere from west of the Dateline to NS. ( ssh...sometimes zonal flows precede subtropical ridge expansion. That's synoptic 101) The previous "optimism" was based upon the climate behavior of -EPO's tending to fade into +PNA's... That would be a segue into a storm potential..etc.. EPS loads cold... PNA sends amplitude underneath. Boom. But this has suffered ( maybe?? ) seasonal wave length - seems a bit early to make that assumption. But this is situation either way that will dump cold into Canada, but then an unattended -PNA circulation mode may not bring it south...nor serve any means to amplify... It just changes everything. The other aspect I'm hypothesizing is that the speed/mass balancing of the hemisphere screwed mechanically ... like it tunneled under and abandoned. Both operational Euro and GFS ( 00z ), average about 3.5 day periodicity between cold waves and warm sector oscillations. With nothing but different hobby engagement worthy events separating, through day 10. Honestly... I did post reticence to the March mid month period last week. I cited the fact that EPO signals may not carry the same telecon correlation at this time of year, as they do DJF. It's just that the PNA aspect intervened and sort distracted the look ... Either way, the EPO is not at this time, modeled to subsequently lead a +PNA of sufficient anything.. Nothing's happened yet. We're still going to have plenty of late season cold loaded nearby over Canada. And the 06z GFS ...which I'm tossing pending anything from anyone or source that concurs..., shows if nothing else, 'how' it can happen in a butt bang pattern.

There is a mid and U/A clearing punching in from the WSW though... Roughly SYR-PIT at dawn and it's leading edge is already knocking on the door of ALB. I wondering, when it unlids eastward if it just exposes this static cling on the bottom, or if it arrives with a t-spike and some breeze.

Warm sector bust going on today though ... I haven't been paying much attention to the details, admittedly, but the general synoptics offered by most guidance I've seen ...didn't appeal like we'd be stuck with the "spilled latex on the highway" look on hi res satellite. Sometimes ( hypothesis ...) I've noticed this about/when in these high velocity flow scenarios, where the warm advection takes place, but seems to perhaps be 'too fast' - it out paces the Eikman (ch spl) drag effect? That cold lower saturated fog miasma, needs some special scouring the sun is just slightly too weak to do on it's own, yet the sounding is protecting the surface. It's almost like a stain on satellite. Whatever it is the strands this paste in the lowest 50 mb of the atmosphere ..it doesn't help that we're drilling mid level cloud swaths over top, either.

Gas doesn't have a very good shelf life. The volatile BTEX compounds the make up gas are weakly bonded - one of the reasons why it is so useful in combustion. Combustion is just a sped up oxidation process where H --> is added the reaction ... gas + H + 02 --> C02 and H2O, and any impurities ..etc... blah blah. But the weak bonds mean it will tend to separate, on its own, without heat. Anyway, one would have to be careful and rather technical in how gasoline is stored for it loses its potency. 55 gallons filling a drum is a lot of a mass, and by virtue of weight and density, it would have a longer "half life" .. The storage facility would have to be properly engineered and subsequently maintained, or eventually .. you may end up with 55 gallon drums of a carcinogenic sludge

The oligarchs will have covert ops involved at some point. Bank on it -

Yeah ... this is basically agreeing with my coverage. Losing that PNA relay is frustrating. Was really good before. It could return. Obviously you know this but signals can 'pulse' as they approach in the guidance. It's just hard to know if that is the case in March - I still think there could be a system at the other side of the EPO ... I mean, there will be cold near by and the flow may relax - that's more of a bowling frame-up probability so tfwiw.

I don't know about the mid month aspect anymore.. Not feelin' it on this one. The indicators are dubious at best, and the -EPO may not be enough to do it alone at this time of year. We need the -EPO to relay/lag into a +PNA rise, and there is one but it is not very large... That doesn't send the best signal down stream... Plus, when we are soaking 40 N with near equinox sun now, radiative forcing modulates more and more. I'm seeing the models correcting some of the cold air mass cores a little already.. So you know we've had blizzards through April and we may very well... I'm not talking about bowling season and/or catching a break on a lucky stream sync. Those are separate means for getting it done. I'm speaking mainly to the "orderly H.A." idea. The GEFs ensemble mean has two roll-out warm-ups if anything, between the 13th and the 20th, and this matches reasonably well with the operational version. The whole American model system wants an oscillatory pattern in a progressive/longitudinal flow type. There are a minority of members that have more commitment to something on the EC... They are mangled Miller Bs or smeared Miller As. Arriving from different means that appear to be more typical long lead noise. My previous optimism was based upon the +PNA emerging as the -EPO block subside ...not an atypical relay. But the latter doesn't appear to be emerging robust enough to force the correction event. I remember one year it stayed usually cold in Canad almost to the middle of April. What year was that? End up with NP floods when it warmed finally in May. But not much cold anomaly really came south of the Dakotas that year.. You know, it's possible we load Canada with -EPO dump and don't get much going S of the 45 L other than what the GEFs is showing..

Ugh...seeing everything through a neg-head lens. I hate the pal sun under milk sky days in the 30s with corn snow on the ground you get at this time of year. It just is too uninspired, nor comfortable. I don't think this warm up Tomorrow and Monday is all that great either, not if leaning against 30 to 40 mph wind gusts ... Even if it's 60 that's going to be A-nnoying. One little interesting aspect, the LI drops to -2 regionally on Monday.

Pure anthropology. Human species greatest natural instinct is the tendency, if not dependency, to social hierarchical command structures. What you’re observing … throughout history, are masses unwittingly compelled, gravitating toward that paradigm - perhaps like moth to a flame. Outmoded instinct it may be, for it now clashes with a reality that despots in alpha roles are vastly more than merely assholes. They've become death, destroyers of worlds.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/03/04/mikhail-khodorkovsky-putin-intv-dos-santos-ovn-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/russia-ukraine-military-conflict/ ...anyway... I maintain my original take on this whole thing. We're not dealing with a "foreign sovereign agency of war times" type of adversary. You're dealing with a unknown vector... a mad-man that is enabled by group psychosis ( think 'Third Reich'), who/that is/are decided/ing, in disconnect, what is going to be righteous. He/they possessing enough arsenal to complete the present extinction level event. they have decided they are not going to lose this thing This needs a artful ...implying among other techniques, covert ops solution.