Typhoon Tip

Yeah...same shit that's effected all cold, multi-stream determined systems spanning the last ... 10 years really, and that is that the N stream needs to either phase the f'er or get the f outta of the way. The partial thing isn't always good. We can get away with mangled p-types and/or lollies for vicarious living in the winter, but in spring/marginality season there's less room to negotiate.

A curious description ... as the 'i' and the 'l' in that euphemism mean "i'd" and "like -to" ...specifically as it pertains to the like-to aspect... it's hard to put toothless in the same sentence there - interesting choice.

adding to consternation ... the NAM has a NW bias beyond 48 hours with polarward turning coastal cyclones/synoptic waves in general. I've said it a thousand times, but we don't seem to put that into our filters, do we - soon as any 84 hour NAMs-day-device paints blue ink on a QPF layout, here comes the procession of posts playing bargaining head-games over how it won't happen - LOL... To be honest, despite my own proclivity to rail on about the month of 'Anus' ... I do carry a soft spot for these face smack blue bombs. If for nothing else, the Schadenfreude ... (wah wah wah) But quite seriously, like Will just said ... not much else going on, but there's another aspect for me. Which is ... Summer is still coming. No matter what the atmosphere is doing to try and stop or deny celestial mechanics, the power of the summer solstice is going to win. Unless Yellowstone erupts or there's a meteor impact... but yeah, who cares. It's probably going to be close to 80 the week after. It's really an opportunity to enjoy a winter storm's beauty without any longer termed hang-overs often experienced in mid winter, post event, endless doldrum hell. The storm is in, it's silver dollar pancake aggregate socks blue tinting the 34F air mass down to 1/4 mile... and the next day, the suns out and the streets and roof eaves have steam dogs curling around each other... No harm, no foul. You know, when I was child in Michigan the farmers referred to that as 'farmer's gold' it's a nice nitrogen fixing late charge into ground that is not frozen - so it actually gets into the dirt stratum. Tilling begins as the snow retreats back across the fields.

Next week's cold expanse of air N of Tennessee seems a bit heavy handed by the Euro though. Not sure how thru that 72 - 96 hour period, the Euro keeps the air mass -3 C as far south as the Ohio River, under April 18th/19th solar when there will be low cloud count. That of course sets the stage for the latter coastal, that gas-lights the local consortium of snow dorks that can't seasonally let it go... Ha, but I wonder if all that's falsely too cold conserving. The air mass should moderate. Kidding a little there ...but I wouldn't be surprised if that air mass gets modulated up some. The dailies may not end up as pessimistic because of that. These cyclones in that latter mid range, at this time of year, ...can be over engineered based upon the model's own cold bias' faux enhancing baroclinic gradients. We'll see... I will say, in the last 5 years, I've seen packing pellet flurries in May, twice. And probably 8 or so times in the last 15 years in general. Those have occurred regardless of leading winter this or signal that, air, land or sea. It's probably part of the seasonal lag shit/ CC .. Either way, clearly we just need to time things better and there we go. I don't a give ratz ass if it's been 80 already, either. Whether the patterns have delivered warmth or not is no vector.

Yeah today and tomorrow have been on the charts for awhile as sneaky nape days - before the other shoe falls on more typical New England spring BS... Right now it is nearing utopia outside. 63 F with very light winds, with that purified kind of translucent blue that allows the sun an edgier heat sensation. You walk under and it's instant. The 850 mb is around 6 C ... And so an 850 mb adiabat is roughly 73 or 74 in the 2 meter T, but I'm not sure we'll get the BL that tall...Still, with light WNW component adding some d-slope physics maybe we can go over the 68..69 machine numbers. Who's complainin' though. Tomorrow is the same sort of scenario but more clouds around probably so some limitation.

Mulch reminds me of an anal retentive OCD neat freak that would normally keep it in the home, but having taxed the other household inhabitant's lives to the brink of sanity ... they have no other options. So they bring their oppressive, 'ruler to palm' smacking nun neurosis for order and fear of masturbating outside the home. Such that instead of allowing nature to provide organically occurring splendorous patchworks, they get to exert their compulsive sense of orderliness and oppressive policing over the extension of their domain, too - which ironically is what gives them a hard-on.. To say nothing of the fact that it's horrendous for the environment but it is what it is...

I'm singularly impressed ( actually ) at how well this warm frontal sag/BD combination was predetermined by the guidance. Picked up on it days in advance really. I'm wondering if the warm frontal/synoptic sagging helped them by 'guiding a BD in' ... either way, there are definitely two boundaries in reality, though WPC is only analyzing for one of them. Either way, right down to the dimensional layout from three or four days out .. is pretty damn good considering the meso-beta scaling of this. The PP S of and N of SNE is essentially the same. There really only one factor promoting this set up today, and I suspect it is curl around the topography. Flags around here are dangling without much wobble. It's classic month of Anus still mank

Never under estimate the power of the BD side of the force

Just a pure scientific curiosity: ...I wonder what kind of safety protocols would have to build into such devices that capacity ginormous storage - star in the pocket. At some point ...charge density makes an object a veritable bomb - what happens in instances of catastrophic failure? where does that go?

It's interesting to me in these situations ( ..because I'm a self-masochist...), there really has to be two boundaries in play, but WPC only physically analyzes one type - here, But if one observes morning satellite cloud behavior/motion and combine it with Wunder's temp layout, there argues for the quantifiable 2ndary structure nosing in from the NE that both does and doesn't align with that. CT and western MA are in the 50s, that's the front we see abv... but this bell of 40s and misty phage into the east/NE is differentiable to that. It is a distinctly different air mass. It's probably like an outflow boundary kinematic ... but in honor of the butt bone damned, it would be nice if we got our memorial badge on the map!

Yup. Red Maples are rusting big time too

broad leaf sugar maple

It’s not so much a back door as it is a warm front sagging. There’s a subtle distinction…. Back doors are not connected necessarily to a synoptic wave. Warm fronts sagging backward are, and the weather type/correction associated with either can be different. Or similar. The modeled WF sagging doesn’t look like it’s bringing the BD cold whiplashing - save perhaps the coast. Friday looks really nice

What would April be without 47 at Lowell while it’s 76 at Worcester (downtown) - that could be Thursday around 4pm

Euro's been throwing shit at the wall in that time range for a week's worth of runs... Seems to be having trouble with what to do with pattern on the far side of this modest -PNA.... How much it will reverse modes, and if so...what to do with features in the flow. This sort of transition is a problem for the Euro ...which likes to seed the flow with too much 'defaulting' amplitude when crossing outside of 5 days lead. Short version, bullshit.

mm... I'm probably grumpy to begin with but today is kinda bagged to me. It was too belated with rhea ... I mean not to be ingrate, it's nice that it's sunnier now but it's like a parole hearing where we have to listen to the asshole tell us why he's really not such a bad guy and we should forgive him... I guess

It's pretty fantastic how fast this thing unlidded its way east ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The scatology is directed at God 'Anus' is his/her month - we didn't afflict ourselves which his/her being an asshole. as for today ... mm, among the fastest I've seen clearing aspect move across the land. 4 hours ago it was over Rochester NY? It's just passed Springfield Mass ... At this rate, it will clear the east coast by 1pm ... I thought it 50 mph by index finger rule, but that had to be closer to 75. That's pretty quick. So fairness to objectivity, today may earn a B grade over the F of this morning... heh

Man... the more I look at this .. this week is really not that great. There were valid synoptic interpretations to see it as better, but now that we're on top of it ...each day is getting butt banged for a different reason. Today, the this cloud lag and light rain... Tomorrow could be WAA cloud packed... Thursday - you know...that may not even be a backdoor now that I look at this. It really appears the warm front never comes back through on Wednesday to begin with. It gets to maybe Hartford, then stalls... Then, pressure rises around PSM some imperceptible amt and that's the ball game. It's not a BD if your already in bondage - Friday may end up the best day - we'll see. But the ,main front limps through overnight Thursday, and cleans out the Gulf of Maine colon blow ... but no aggressive backside CAA. Moisture elevations appears to want that afternoon to be sunnier ... could be 70 aoa 4pm ish. Then next week, winter begins in accordance with the models' inability to factor seasonal forcing... Welcome to month of Anus

Morning satellite certainly offering less confidence ... yikes. There is a back edge, one of those no cloud to full sun immediately types, pressing east through upstate NY ... Lucky cow-poke townships and farm land bust out, while we bust machine guidance. Boo ya 150 mi W of the Capital District. It appears to be moving around 50 mph... I'm not sure that times very far E of the Berkshires until afternoon, not without acceleration or dissolving/hole punching along the way. MEX had 70 for KFIT/KASH/KBED and that ain't happening in June with 0 sun. It'll be interesting to see how this evolves. By the way, did you see the classic BD on Thursday? One of two things happens here: One, the NAM is just wrong ... in which case the front holds up precariously, but holds up nonetheless ... roughly RUT-PWM or thereabouts. Two, the NAM in more right ... in which case, it is actually underdone. If the front gets that bullied in, it is unlikely to hold up with that full bladder of cold lobe ( 21 Z position Chris just posted ). It'll keep obtruding rudely SW clear to NYC ...

That's a cold extended on that Euro ...geesh

There's a deep winter storm on the charts though ... I mean, it's not situated 50 mi E of the eastern tip of L.I., no, but there's something to be said for having one exist. In a pure scientific/objectivity ...it matters that the Dakotas and southern Alberta may get walloped by snow and wind. It's tough to be philosophical as winter enthusiasts, when it's 60 to 76 F under shards of suns, yes - but what could have been might have been visualized correctly. Just didn't happen precisely here... Tough to ask anyone to nail a geography in vulnerable period, in spring no less if the idea is a longer lead.

right - we're better off if the main front whiskeys through. almost a guilty pleasure watching a BD air mass arrive then get fisted out by a front within 12 hours

I wonder why ECMWF is so willing to start giving out products less sale ... interesting. I have a paranoid muse that it's a marketing ploy - because they are about to release some kind of super tech that makes the current stuff seem primitive.