Typhoon Tip

I’m still not fully convinced that we won’t get kind of a saturable inversion layer bunching up along the terrain in the interior off that long fetch east northeast flow pouring out of the NAO. That can be a gray grits kind of day with some flurries and then if there’s any OES smear. We could do all this also at 37° …true but I think the 2 m temperature is trending colder at this time of year and all that. it probably ends up closer to freezing?

If that’s true it fits … yeah. The pattern ‘maintenance’ events are more related to super synopsis - the ambient jets and storm track longer term tendencies. Whereas ‘bombs’ are occurring because of local temporal, intra-scale restoring of mass fields … which are occurring because the abv where significantly stress. - true regardless of storm types, too. But with track and jets migrating N the ‘snow’ bombs inherently were S of in the stressed domain.

Britney Griner was released from Russian prison ! Prisoner swap between her and some Russian arms dealer known as the 'the merchant of death' apparently. Reminds me of that awesome Spielberg movie, 'Bridge of spies'

If anyone is interested… after spending a few moments observing the EPS and GEFS behavior across the eastern and northeastern pacific …downstream throughout North America, specifically pertaining to the 12th through 20th, a fairly coherent difference leaps out for me. It’s the handling over the EPO domain region. That difference is having a fairly significant instructional impact on how the pattern’s synoptic construct orients (crucially) itself downstream. The EPO is less significantly in the negative EPO phase state. Downstream over the continent it becomes a “seesaw” difference in forcing. The GEFs being stronger in the negative EPO phase, bottoms out the heights more in the southwest lat/lons; which is actually not a bad fit within its own reasoning. That would concomitantly lift the westerlies in latitude over eastern North America. The Pacific handling is still an issue here ladies and gentlemen… At the same time, between day’s 7 through 11… the GEFs has taken to dispersing the negative NAO phase considerably - more quickly or more obviously than the EPO. It seems the GFS ‘species’ has been doing this with the NAO off and on - poor continuity - over the last week. I’m not sure I trust that part of this Both ensemble means carry a storm that winds up in the Plains between the 13th and 14th through the east and or SE Canada between the 15th and the 16th, but the upstream handling at large scales, and how it relays from the Pacific over North America , continues to be a problem, and the forcing mechanisms are critical to eventual system type/impacts. The GEF like hemisphere would promote more of a Great Lakes primary with only weak secondary … if only there because of boundary layer resistance in having cold air that is residually wedged east of Appalachia …etc. The EPO on the other hand… Having a flatter negative EPO digs less into southwest which lowers the heights over eastern North America. But while also maintaining a slightly more robust negative NAO structure out in time everything evolves further south and in fact there are a lot of EPO members, toward the 15th, like Scott was saying they end up with a pretty stem wound secondary/Miller B result. So either way there’s likely to be a significant winter storm affecting the 13th through the 17th of the month from the Plains to the north eastern US and we’re still in the process of figuring out exactly what storm type that will be and where. The two primary ensemble clusters that are typically used, their differences are crucially meaningful as to how all that lays out

… Seems to be a recurring theme that we start threads for winter storms that end up being more central in northern New England over the last couple three years doesn’t it?…

ArrrYep I made the impertinent ( to this species of internet users …) jest, half serious, that this was like a - NAO being mangled by CC a couple days ago. Whether that’s what you had in mind or not, I agree in principle that “somethings up“ - regardless of the ultimate causality

Ha ha Ray … It’ll happen Some day. My guess is it will be a forecast bust

You know I’ve often wondered if that is possible… To get like a solid 12 to 18 inch type of upper moderate lower major snow storm with some wind and then as the storm is moving away, a Norlan trough coalesces in a lag convergence and dumps another 20 inches on top … out performing the cyclone

The angled trajectory is not the problem - the angle’s happening because of the problem. The models were trying to move the trough around an anticyclonic curvilinear field at continental scales and in doing so they were conserving too much of its potency. I mean that is the conventional physical understanding of these things – that tends to win at the unfortunate loss of what we want. But you know I’ve been talking about this model magnification stuff for a long time - seems Im the only one who hears my own voice ha ha. No but that was doing that, especially with that Canadian solution. And ironically the Canadian solution of 0Z makes more sense for the following morass coming in from the west which by the way ladies and gentlemen that is 13.14.15. It’s just not doing it along an idealized what anybody wants. Delayed being one of those aspects. But it’s really wrapping up across the continent on time it’s just gonna take a long time and smear its way east. So that part of it is definitely a change in the morphology. Do you know the biggest take away this whole era might just be that the models are still ginormously horrible during blocking periods

The disappearance of the 12 should be expected guys just sayn’

Looks like the GFS is trying to commit more to some sort of forcing toward either a quasi Miller b, or a warm advection arm low/warm frontal wave, as 13.14.15 is extending east … writings on the wall there. That’s likely a colder solution destiny N of PHL - how much so. Retrograde lower Maritime bomb plays a role.

Conventional wisdom is unfortunately not on Dec 12ths side tho. You have S/W translating along an anti cyclonic curved trajectory … I’m not sure the models aren’t ‘magnifying’ too hmm

I know … the interpretation of the GFS synoptic charts without even looking at the sounding is a slam dunk saturated layer/low growth look … again freezing drizzle/grits is an option. As is typically the case the 2-meter is steadily cooling as phase nears in time. It’s 536dm thickness with ENE sustained polar air collecting GOM steam No consideration. Just a low grade warfare between trolls vs futile efforts to explain heh. It’s all right though… It has an entertainment value to it lol

Guys you might get that anyway if/when that long cold llv jet slipping WSW sets up. Raw with gray grits or even some freezing drizzle from time to time Sat+ That kind of condition is quite likely with 1050mb park N of Maine. I’m actually expecting a bipolar mood swing violently the other direction by mere sight of flurries from OES them days. heh.

Not to yank anyone's chain but this 18z GFS was little interesting for meteorologist ( less so for enthusiasts with hand throwing downer neurosis lol...) But the mid/u/a/ counter part to the trough ejection for 13th's event is actually in fact being melded into the 17th as one contiguous series actually. It's a change in the temporal spacial aspects of the 10th -20th of the month... The way it more specifically manifests in the sfc synopsis, the 13th system no longer makes it N of the 50th parallel, before collapsing down across ~ ORD... The mid / upper air centers actually perform the same bizarre curved trajectory as they too settle back south and in fact, by the 16th...they eject a significant wind max 500 mb across the Del Marva, which ignites a new low on the boundary... This low moves N quickly and 'hooks' NW to VT, and flips the on going ana like rain sheild in NYS to snow as it pulls cold lurking near-by in Ontario - lurking there because the primary low and behavior never penetrated N of the border. That whole cinema is significantly different than previous solutions. But it is also more respective of ....any f'n NAO at all for f sake. haha. I mean, have you ever seen guidance more neurotic than the GFS, with first creating the thing and than having such utter fear of intimacy with it... Anyway, I just wanna also say that we've seen Minnesota mid ranger cyclones end up steadily corrected E ...and given that the 13th - 17th is still over a week away, it's not impossible. I mean, as much as it entertains you to troll there is an other side to this that's equally available whether you believe it or not.

Seems as though we’ve been yo-yo ed around. We’re being bamboozled probably by a combination of what we want to see but this antic in the guidance of getting close if not outright offering the dream look …only to pull back and enter back into this weirdly tandem warm/cool pattern as the whole scale finish … i’m done trying to filter this through optimism. Meanwhile the NAO it’s just strange looking even in the EPS. I’m sorry it is. Particularly in the GFS though with such a mass to the point where it doesn’t even look so much like an NAO anymore as much as it does a hemispheric problem with high heights to put it bluntly. i’ve been playing around with this thought all day that it’s an NAO mangled by the climate change footprint. I’m sure that’ll poke some hornets nests… roll lies or get people angry whatever I don’t give a shit it is what it is. And of course that may not be the case but it just looks strange and lacking any kind of explanation.

Eigh… not sure after the last 2.5 weeks of model peregrinations from the GEFs how anybody could possibly use turns of phrases like improved or impressed in deference to the Pacific – it’s right there …that is the point of origin of the emotional investment. Stop it!

Impressive surface pressure anomaly there over Northeast Quebec between the hours is 60 and roughly 130… Maxing out at 1052 or 1054 mbar that’s actually been an intensifying synoptic feature.

I thought it was the other way around. - it’s hard to keep track with the Pacific inconsistencies. But NAO handling’s been shaky th e last day and half and the guidance is trying to speed accordingly.

Not to be a nudge but that retrograde doesn’t bring in a wall of snow I hope people aren’t thinking that… That storm is maxed out and future at that point it’s probably just bringing in wind with light snow maybe a burst here and there but dim sun none of which is really accumulating

Placeholder kinematics?

Under present circumstances? It certainly is hard to describe the sweetness of that eye candy as an alternative to wet stench we’ve been forced to eat of the other guidance types. it may be of limited solace that this particular model run is really only day 5 to 7 with this (so it’s really on the front side of the 13.14.15 but it is still actually the same disturbance) and the reason why it’s limited solace is because this model has basically very limited predictive skill beyond D4s from what I’ve seen in the past. I don’t know if that’s changed in recent years? I know it’s gone thru some upgrades recently. I apologize if that’s case and it’s improved. I seldom use thus tool at time frames greater than day 4 as trust hasn’t been tested. Lol there’s too many forecast methods available as it is…. Your sentiment about watching for the Euro is a good, particularly because it was midway between this and the GFS ND/SD abomination - as of last night - tho trended the wrong way. That said… The threads purpose was still just for a risk assessment… The risk however still there

Unfortunately those as much as we laugh and lord of the flies this particular model it is unfortunately for the pessimists within the realm of plausibility‘s.

Not entirely certain what the pages contain since yesterday but in deference to the patterning evolution over the last 24 hours, in the runs, I cannot in objective fairness disagree with that sentiment as of this morning’s coffee. Little furthering on that … the Pacific relay over western N/A has been vacillating - we’ve been ruminating the issues with that ad nauseam But it is unfortunately still the biggest hurdle. A lot has been said over the last three weeks by a lot of different people - myself included. I have voiced sentiments on either side of pessimism versus optimism. I ultimately sided with optimism (in the context of what optimism means for this particular social media depot ) because there is a historical precedents for seasonal lapsing over the last decade. Blocking during transition seasons, Regardless of leading indicators…, loading cold transports etc. etc. Additionally, La Nina’s have a historical suggestion for early performance – helped along by the fact that we’ve had a very well coupled Nina basal state Pacific this autumn …might lend support for that as well The combination of those two factors made the negative EPO that was modeled two weeks ago (which by the way ended up arriving in passing more modest), as well as the impending negative NAO, a reasonable fits. The fact of the matter is… that’s all still the case and they still are. That all said I agree with Brian wholeheartedly that the NAO has a long history of breaking hearts when relying on long range excitement. I can dig back and find the post where I spoke about this with in no uncertain terms and in vivid detail why and how the NAO did not mean XYZ necessarily. I spoke at length about both the fail/red herring NAO handling m, and also tried to explain why the D(NAO) is more important than the NAO scaler mode. Old lessons were false in the 1990s and they’re still not dying, perhaps. Be that as it may we did except that notion by suggesting that the NAO would relax after the initial onset and there’s discussion in that area… All of which seems perhaps moot at this point if the models fail this vastly with structural handling in the first place. Yesterday and still today the GEFs -based PNA numerical values were/are rising some 2 standard deviations in the 7-10 day delta. I don’t believe the Pacific is being handled with very much better vision when the oper version cannot seem to ever reflect its own modes.

Saying since the upgrade implies the upgrade did something. Maybe … maybe not. Fwiw I am more more inclined to suspect the pattern is just troublesome in general to its particular ‘machinery’.