Typhoon Tip

Oh of course... I feel like Aprils haven't been as bad as May the last three years. ...I dunno. I think the return rate on "nice" April's somewhere like 1 in 387 years, so we're not really due for a while

It's 53 here... Light wind. Though the sun is pal through some milk there, it's still warmish. no snow left. It's pretty remarkable how this compares to about 5 pm yesterday.

Saw that ...frankly, hold one's breath and swallow getting thru this weekend. I'm sure there's those that care less for the inevitability of ensuing seasonal change... but I could not be more ready to shed this shit and get into green up ... Even if it's just field starter warmth with forsythia bud swelling and crocuses ... I'm done. I don't want to think about cold season for 7 months

This whole thing looks almost specious to me frankly. I may not have the best handle on this, admittedly ... But, this has been either leaning, or just 'acting like it wants to' lean more stretched/W-E orientation. The GFS merely doesn't want to give up? might be that - Euro comes a little more E ... There'll be a wave on the boundary... I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up weaker as we close in.

Yeah the idea was going to be the deep pressure well, ...descending as it arrives, then when it leaves, it's pure acceleration - Not sure that even comes into play if the boundary ends up more e anyway

The wind won't be quite as bad if the boundary gets east and the low tracks up it. If the low tracks straight overhead, that's when you get a huge restoring blast.

ya .. mentioned it a coupled days ago. excessive PG couple/isollabaric blah blah blah

... wee bit of consternation that the compromised solution happens to be spelled like, G -G -E -M

Tell me this isn't spring in New England ... Yesterday, we struggled to 32 and wound up with 4" of snow through the evening. 24 hours later, it's not noon, over that snow pack, and under full sun most home sites tied into Wunder's network within a couple clicks of my location here in Ayer are knocking on the door of 50! No wind either... the feel becomes rather "nape balm" .. A day and a half later we we could have rain and wind ending as a PL/aggregate cake - even if only 1.5" of it...dramatic plunge immediately.

4”

I like the Euro's plan, personally... Season flips D6 ? I'll take it! Sunday bites balls with 35 mph gusts lingering under deep anomalies at 850 mb... figure mid 20s ( impressive cold for the date). But it's shorter duration. Wind relaxes ... yeah, it stays chilly Monday... but that's it. +15C recovery in 24 hours heading into Tuesday morning, with low ceiling RH values and WSW winds ...talking high 60 under pearl blue sun sear. That's how you masseuse the napes. There is a more seasonal cool shot D7 ... but the ensemble mean from all three, GEF/GEP/EPS ... have warm 850 mb anomalies from D6 into noise on their respective runs. It looks like the deep cold is cut off and relegating back to N Canada. Which isn't to say April won't bust balls ..just that it's a nice look for spring enthusiasts. ( caveat is always BD season )

Light to moderate burst of snow here in Ayer the last hour. 31 F ...maybe 1/2" so far

No longer 'early' march in reality. That distinction ended 2 days ago. Objectively, ... if one were looking at charts on say March 5, for a storm on March 12, that doesn't count as 'early' March either. You'd have to go back to the last week of February to logically invoke climate arguments related to early March. On March 9? anything going forward is definitely more Ides -related.

The ensuing sore butt contest will likely take place at some point or the other ... but if it is any consolation, the boat merely sunk at different rates. We up here in interior NE Mass may have been at the bow of the Titanic, ...your region at the stern, but we all went down with this ship. It was not a "good" winter anywhere. Falling short of seasonal snowfall averages, which barring a lucky bowling ball moving forward ... too many are sure to succeed, is < C grade. You have to at least make average to get a C - ... seldom do I engage in the "objective" grading game ( LOL ) but just for shits and giggles... That's sort of the way I view it. Average snow is minimum requirement for average grade. Leave all the passion out of the judging. This year...on the border of D and F ...

It’s called ‘recreational outrage’

Three flag 500 mb winds moving off the Del Marva with that thing this weekend. That's 160 mph synoptic scale wind max ... The cyclone on that cold front moves from DCA to CAR in < 12 hours ... It's be moving past at 75 to 80 mph. That's pretty amazing

Maybe .... This look (blw) is shared in essentials by the GEFs and GEPs for D9 ... It may be wet though. But plenty of time to adjust the boundary draped from DTX to BTV more NW of that axis, in which case we'd dry out and sore. The only difference between this sort of look now compared to a month ago, is solar - add that to it and we start to synergize the warm days One thing I'm noticing as a "hint" in the longer range ( beyond this weekend) is that the whole hemisphere appears to "flash" - it's when the cold suddenly bites less. The hydrostatic thicknessess rise sort of unilaterally all at once, and the colder mass ebbs back into higher latitudes of Canada. This ... that may be how this season really ends it. I've seen this other years, too... it's kind of interesting phenomenon for apparently no one else but me lol. I mean it varies year to year. Anyway, this weekend ordeal seems to coil up the cold around it and spins it away and continent below 55 N behind rapidly warms.

Looking closer at the Euro that's likely flashing to heavy snow ORH-Monads ...collapsing E 18 thru 21 z on Saturday early afternoon... It would prooobably be like 1.5 hours of it, then moderate for 3 or 4 shredding out to flurries and also very strong backside wind pulse

This has a huge upside up your way... In fact, I'd say that is the case from about CON ...maaaybe MHT NH latitudes on up. That's based on the GEFs ensemble mean and nuances in the operational run. In general: I'd like to point out to folks the 101 rule of continuity: you need it. The 00z Euro looks one way. Then, the 12z looks like a better (for winter enthusiasts). That is reduced continuity. I mean if getting it right is any goal, that's not inherently supporting the Euro. That said, by the time we get to central NE and points N-E, the models are trying to max out dynamics - perhaps unrealistically so at that but cross the bridge. it probably I could see it doing weird things near Fryeburg ME... where there is cat paw rains with giant partially refrozen gulf ball that are quasi hail, with lightning and thunder .. flashes over to S triple + for 2 hours then ending... That's pretty wild stuff... But, seeing these guidance en masse trying to really press this on a more E track - like I was saying to Scott, I wonder if all this is "model flux" en route to more of a whsiky wave on an extreme fropa. If that happens ...this ends up a faux ANA

This may be on the verge ( future runs...) of converting into an even more open wave/ intense fropa, and this run catches the eyes mid way ... in other words, the low ends up more middling on a very intense cold front... Some notables that are pushing the climate tin on previous runs. ROA to CAR motion of the cyclone in 10 or 12 hours, while bombing 30 mb. It's a little odd ...impossible? NO. But strange. I tend to be a fan of pathways of lesser resistance and that seems like a difficult logistic achievement there, but we'll see. Also, there is a ceiling event isollabaric wind potential if that happens. Because we don't feel the wind on the front side, where the motion of the cyclone is almost the same speed as the restoring acceleration, but when that house sucker low leaves the region, the full payload comes in the back side from a deep pressure well... you get the drill.

I get you. I’m just not sure acts of nefarium are proportional - it’s like two different metrics really One is innate douchiness - I think your point is that, to which I agree The other is “ornate” douchiness. LOL and a problem with modernity The arithmetic argues it is worse now in actual “events” of questionable morality, because that’s the logical conclusion when there are more triggers tapping into number one

We just had severe wind criteria here in Ayer.

Mmm - not sure that makes mathematical sense. Global population is ~ 8X’s more massive than 1800 …. obviously doesn’t take rocket science to see the conjecture there. Incidence of “dim morality” would at minimum have to increase at a paced geometric proportionality. But cultural evolution has taken place at a slower rate to the technological revolutions raw power to influence. Fringe … or conditionally fringed ideologies, are both greater in numbers - because of the above geometry - but also are not held in check by that lagged cultural evolution … instead are being sieged by unfiltered triggers. That adds an exponential value that augments the geometric proportionality. The notion that humans are *unts and will always be … is essentially true, though. But now … in modernity, there are elicit trigger activation means that has to be considered in the ‘always has been’ model. Both conditions are likely true. There are both increased incidences - relative/comparing history - but also fuller disclosure.

um... the previous 4 months of persistent experience ? just a guess - In fact, it's still highly probable, based upon the paranoid persecution complex model (the PPCM), that we'll spend the next day and a half gettin all lubed up and ready to go and then she'll pull up panties and run for the Atlantic door on us

Marginal's fine at this time of year. 10 minutes in marginal with fall rates into moderate density will have golf balls side carring cozy rain drops.