Typhoon Tip

No one's asking me but .. I don't think it's "as much" of a fantasy as is typically the case for this range - though I wouldn't pin adjective to it like 'torch' per se. Heh. But there is multiple signal sources for broadly systemic/hemispheric obliteration of that which we've been observing. Namely, an R-wave re-positioning from Pacific arond to eastern N/A, and the retreat N of the westerlies, by mid month. In the meantime, dailies look to me like we continue to oscillate for the next ten days. The the models' ideas of the atmosphere attempt to fight off radiative/seasonal forcing with fake-out cold storms that just end up rhea like. Back side bud belayer air masses that flip around to nape days ... with posting mood swinging accordingly. ..ha, rinse repeat. If we can get a few hours in the garden or a decent bike ride a couple of days, we'll call it a success... But that signal mid month is not only in all ens systems, it's also hugely suggestive in La Nina climo. 1976 ...2002 .. to name a couple, but there is a strong statistical correlation to end-season La Nina lag sending up early warmth across eastern N/A. Those years perhaps being excessive, mere examples. I wouldn't bother with magnitude from this range as it pertains to this month. But heh... in CC with Pac NW type events, to mention everywhere else in the world where attribution studies link CC to these synergistic heat events that have been materializing ( relative to native climates ) ... I wouldn't be inclined to hold back, either. We'll see. In short, live ens means are directing toward a result that alights upon that La Lina climate signal, ...doing so during upwardly mobile ongoing CC rage? We've spent 30 days (figuring out ways how to not snow) in a cold hemispheric look... Yet, still managing a couple of 70 degree lollypops... but relative to all, this anomaly is borrowing time. Any venture of guess in what happens when the westerlies suddenly escape N and we balloon protective warm dome everywhere S?

GGEM tried to warn that today was a 'warm sector rhea' day. No hope of realized the warm potential -

I guess I'm odd but that looks like the atmosphere's in the aggressive finish of a hard f for some reason.. 'oh oh yes yes more more'

As expected ...solid recovery this afternoon though. Probably we high T at 5 sun provided - if it dims with high cloud, no. But 20 to 25 to 50 or near so is pretty solid. We don't drop tonight... Tomorrow is still not clear. Supports low 70s easily, but the warm sector looks dirty.

You know I see this sort of ludicrousness a lot with these D10 to 15 ranges... ( uh, a different ludicrousness than just the ludicrous range LOL) It's almost like the model tech has finally gotten better with the lower tropospheric physical interplay with real BL inhibitors ... so it just applies that forcing at all times now. But in reality, sometimes that stuff does happen with bend around damming this, ..and BD that, but sometimes it doesn't - I'm saying it seems this way.. The GFS seems to go too far, biased to create 0 ability to bring warm air in here with f'in it up with any way it can.

Wtf is that and why are we surprised ?

I'm a little suspicious of Boston's high reading on the 2nd and 3rd day of that heat wave. I was just crushin' the nerd over in the weather charts from those days of lore, and there really wasn't any impetus to kick the wind around E at Logan ( ... was the station Logan back then? ) Synoptically, that was a pervasive heat anomaly spread out all over the Lakes- OV - MA - NE regions. The PP implied a west wind, right out of the dragon's ass of Boston, where it was 91 while NYC was 101 on 3rd. The synoptics of/when what happened typically makes those locations more competitive than that. Then the next day on the 4th, it was 107 at NYC and "just" 97 at Boston? Thing about the 4th though ...a front came down at some point during the day, so it may have capped that high - not sure ... sometimes those boundaries dry it out and that allows the temp, if anything, to bounce up before it cools later. Little tedious but interesting -Ray loves this shit, especially some random day in history a light year before he was born.

I'd take Superstorm93's Euro numbers in a heart beat under April sun. Obviously it won't be sunny every day of that. But having a "climo" look, while all numbers are actually a pube flopped over the warmer side, is both appealing if/when it is sunnier, ...but also is typical of CC era. Aside: It just bothers me how I go look at the climate page at NWS Boston near the end of every month going back many years... and 80 or 90% of the months since 2000 ...some 260 month's worth, are always positive. These 30-years mean methods are belying "rate of change" as a significance. It's not so much that it is above normal, it's the acceleration of it that is the tell. The last hope for any snow this season ( synoptic ) appears to end via telecon spread ... roughtly the 5th of April. We're going to toast up a bit this week ..balancing out the 'soothing' nadir we're caressing our way through yesterday and today... But after that, we slip into a more typical early April kind of marginal atmosphere, where it can be 62 and sunny, but inject any theta-e into the column with UVM and it's wet snow. That lasts perhaps 5 days... The operational runs that go out longer than that don't really reflect the extent of warming S of the Canadian border, suggestively offered by the GEFs -based numbers. The NAO having neutralized and tending positive; the PNA is negative and going down. I have seen a couple of GFS runs that are attempting to flat ridge east of 100W across the country in the la la range - it could be an early attempt.

Better than Will Smith or the impending nuclear war ...

Tomorrow could be a sneaky big diurnal day... We are definitely deep in the cold heading into tonight... But the present cold/CAA pattern abruptly ends and we go calm overnight. Over the top of the decoupling meat locker ( ugh) ..the high pressure shifts south and east, and puts us in a west/SW drift above the deck. It may not even drop as low tonight at elevations ... ORH warm than FIT. Then tomorrow, the sun is strong enough this time of year to destroy inversion, no question - the question is whether the advance of WAA clouds caps us. If not and the wind gone light and d-slope under higher the Equinox sun angle, we'll beat MOS. If clouds... ignore this post. ha. By 00z tomorrow night, the 850s have surged from -10 C at dawn, all the way +4C by dark. We'll mix overnight with more SW wind establishing.. We're apt to be warmer at dawn on Thursday than we are at sun down tomorrow evening, a d(t) exaggerated by a potent warm front between 06 and 12z Thursday morning. Hard to say how warm Thurs gets... The GGEM is engineering all these needling ways to punch holes in the warm up potential. The GFS looks cleaner as does the Euro. Climate favors spring/warm enthusiasts enduring sore butts so the GGEM can't be ignored...

Op ed: No one asked ...but my personal opinion is that this "freak" cold, is another example of that seasonal precession(autumn), and later at the other end, the lag(spring) phenomenon we've been seeing over the last 20 years. All those petty snows in October and May ? ( some more than petty) They are caused by changing the mechanics of atmospheric circulation engine of the planet ... Most obviously attributed to CC Snark: But we have our own brand of denial here. We don't deny because we are preserving our right to profligate the environment and protect ( usually for money ) special interests that are directly or indirectly dependent upon that exploitation - no. We deny because acceptance means facing the reality that winters are declining in all metrics. Muse: Which it is a freak occurrence ... The significance of it is merely masked by two principles. One, it's still early enough in spring to sort of look sideways at its significance. But the principle of it ... this cold is vastly superior in standard deviation to anything that took place between Thanks Giving and St Patty's Day this last season - relativity is where this story is told. So it waits until almost the turn of April and the way end of March to deliver this. That's the lag - I have strong hypothesis why these late cold displays take place in this era, too. Two, we've been saturated with the phenomenon of 'record breaking,' in general over the spectrum of all metrics under the sun, for more than a decade. So having so deeply negative below previous records ... some dating 100 years or more at synoptic instructive cold, might slip past people's attention. Particularly when they are in heated homes and cars and no sooner, Thursday, the region's apt to bathe in a 70 F afternoon

I think you guys are both right. I've often thought that it ...I wouldn't go so far as to say is becoming mockery, but has been getting increasingly more crass. That does tend to dent the significance/appreciation, and perhaps a return essence would be needed to restore. I can almost suspect that the erosion of sophistication tact FXWX mentions, with the shock-jock over-bearing 'humanistic' quality ( to put it nicely), might have been leading toward a destiny for like this. It starts somewhere.... What's the history here though? I was wondering that on my run ... what's the worst thing that's happened in the history of the program? On the other hand, I agree the response by Smith was not proportional. He'll need to do more to atone for this... And work with the Academy and ...I dunno, maybe some sort of PR outreach. He should opt out, on own volition, future engagements - and should the Academy and all party's involved want him back, then they'll tell him it is not necessary. Not sure I see how that would happen, ...all of this is just a suggestion. In the meantime, it should be noted ... Smith is genuine and proven to be so, with 0 track record of anything like this at the age of 53 ...with an illustrious and accomplished career... There are those that deserve forgiveness, there are those that don't. It depends on how he comports himself in the coming days/weeks...

No one asked me about the slap heard around the world, so ...tfwiw - Two schools... 1 Even if in some extreme or unique circumstance where mere words can incur an understandable or acceptable 'slap' response, was that one of those? 2 Suppose for a moment it were, this next thought is a bit more symbolic. The sanctity of the Oscars may be forever tarnished. To iconoclasts sure.. maybe it's about time Hollywood is les the pomp and elegance, and more humanistic... However, that engagement isn't really the place for that? It is an artistic impression in itself, as that entire space of our culture sets out to adorn the night with praise and specter - in a lot of ways, it is a movie in itself. Another means for escape into a dream that many will likely never see materialized. In that sense, it is honoring art, with art. One does not enter a museum and mar a work of art, because the painting offends. Maybe this is just sort of a metaphor for the egregiousness of Mr Smith's actions. Having said all that... I am aware that Smith has been managing some difficulty in his marriage as what's new.. a Hollywood couple somehow managed to air their laundry over the last two .. three years. Then, within two years ... it surfaces that his wife has been battling Alopecia. It seems pretty clear - or should to anyone with a modicum of human awareness ... - that he's been under immense emotional and to some degree, considering his arena, profession pressure. That moment may have been the breaking point. Every man has one. So... not without compassion. Personally ...I would be interested in hearing Mr Rock's sentiments. I mean ... for all we know, what if he comes out with a statement that he was not aware or somehow has not been exposed to Jeda Smith's condition? Remote...sure.. But Will was unfortunately wrong for his actions. He appeared to be legit contrite in his statements at the Oscar podium moments later, but he needs to do more to atone.

GFS does this ever year ... circa mid March until early May even... It scrubs the initialization's radiative forcing out in time ... ( think that's what it's doing)... Whatever it does, it ends up back in January by the time it gets to D10 and beyond. It's s both a separate phenomenon/ .. model short-coming that's annoying ( and I'm beginning to wonder if I am the only person on the planet that's noticed this in springs), but also is different than the cold pattern between now and roughly April 7 we've been tracking. The latter should be exiting by the end of the first week of April. It goes wildly against it's own extended GEFs telecon numbers which neutralize the NAO hinting even positive, with -PNA by mid April. Pretty much opposite that look.

I've never run a marathon... I've never run more than 10 miles, actually. I don't really covet any ambition to do so - though I've been told I'm in like stage 4 of training for one, just doing what I've been doing for the past 5 -7 years. I run two to three 10 Ks per week. I ride 25 on stationary bike, or outside seasonal, twice per week. Then the other days full press elliptical. I work out every day... Usually something comes up in the sphere of friends or family that requires a day and that's how I 'work in' a day off from working out. I'm told I do too much. But I don't have knee or hip and foot issues. My doctor says that bullshit anyway... You do up to your tolerance ... it won't guarantee you live forever because we're all doomed eventually... but, the goal is to get to the finish line with less pumps and tubes and being propped up by big pharma. I'm ah .. middle age ( eh hm) and look young for my age - though I am at last salting some along the sides of my hair. Not bald(ing) though - I mean...not that there's anything wrong with bald dudes ... LOL just kidding. Anyway, the 4 stage shit ... I guess in that range, you stop the everyday stuff, and go to two 18 miles per week ... then your ready. I have no ambition to do a marathon and never have, though. At 5 or 7 miles, the points been made, the calories burned... the runner's elixir and mood reset succeeded. Plus, it only take 40 or 50 minutes.

Nary a trace here in Ayer ... interesting. But, looking at radar, 97.845% of the geographical region did not see anything from this "event" so I don't feel too left out LOL. But it somewhat does hearken back to that vicious morning WINDEX squall in Dec 2003, that strafed across Metrowest with a quick 1" and brought morning demographics to halt. It was a fascinating week. I lived in Winchester, Mass back then... Five or so days earlier...we had one of those 70/70 warm wash southerly gales with swept tropical rains, ending abruptly at 11pm (last couple of days of November) with a ribbon echo squall. We dropped back to the upper 40s type air mass for a day, and then we had two fronts, the first was a polar fropa. It arrived with those type of squalls the start as sprinkles with dark clouds at 45 F and you wonder what the dense gray curtain's going to contain - comes in like a wall of wind pushed grauple, which mixes in and big aggies take over. And just when the lawns start to look like the frosting on donut it stops... Two morning's later the arctic front arrived. It flashed the region from mid 30s to 28, with what might quantitatively register as the greatest impact 1 inch event in history... haha. No more...no less... --> grid lock. It was like 3 and 4 hour stoppages that morning. It made the news. I wanna say Dec 2nd or 3rd...? something like that. I remember the week being very staged downward, in a procession of events, the last of which landed us on the 5-7th, which hosted the big early snow. Man, I that early in the season, getting 17" of champagne, not more than 8 miles W of the ocean in Winchester. Temperatures in the mid teens with several near white out intervals ... that would have been the biggest event in my personal catalogue of experiences relative to date, but unfortunately for that storm ... that trophy has to go to April 1 1997. We did not have a white Xmas that year.

just curious ... do you run every day ?

The 00z Euro carried along a rendition of that thing ... but far less amplified. That range of time has been somewhat signaled for awhile in the GEF - based teleconnector numbers. It hasn't really presented in the operational GFS, if perhaps yet. One thing about the 00z suite, however, is that the EPS has a signal that, relative to an ensemble mean, is more significantly coherent than the operational run. It's sort of a 2nd derivative in that sense... Comparing the significance. Anyway the mean carries an eastern TV low off the MA and well formats it east of Cape Cod, spanning 36 hours, with an open negative tilt wave that is deepening while it passes through. It's nestled temporally in that same signal from the GEFs ...so is a bit of cross guidance ensemble support .. . There's a signal there. that's it. how much or little, it's emerging ... we'll see. Could turn out to be a big nothing with radiative forcing the hemisphere ...

Oh yeah I do ... I've waxed nostalgia over that historic heat, and it's rude ending, more than once in social media weather lore. I was an upperclassman back then, finishing up at UML. It was a three day "heat wave" - it wasn't ... but merely missing by a degree and decimal's worth. If memory serves it was 87 on March 29, then 88 and 91 were the high temperatures ( at the college weather station) for the 30th and 31st. The lows at night were like 45 that first night, then a couple of double nickles, making the total diurnal departure 30 points or more. Around 3:30 pm on the 31st, the temp was bouncing between 89 and 90 over that hour, doing the game of 'will it' ping 92. I was looking at NWS ASOS obs for it, because the BD was actually well modeled. For that era of modeling ...? BDs were even worst surprises at times than they still are even in today's modeling luxury. These days BDs are picked out well enough, but it's just a matter of position/timing and strength. Seldom do they blind side a nice afternoon. But this was an unusual case - what came along and didn't break the heat, it actually moved it to another planet. It was so powerful and physically constructed in the total circulation mode of over eastern Canada and the NE U.S., even the Japan model woulda nailed it - if it existed. While it was 90 F on the monitor, the ASOS out of CAR, ME had a 'RMK' for a 47 mph wind gust out of the ENE, the temperature was 37. I mean recall briefly looking off at an angle, "...54 F colder then here in the Merrimack Valley!" The front was also visible on base reflectivity channel. It was like a side-winder serpent on the scan, snaking it's way SW through NE NH and down the Maine coast, with attitude. Still, walking out of doors into that dry heat, flags lazily wobbling in the SW zephyrs, it was weird knowing the titanic is about to sink in that setting, and how the late adolescence and early adulthood carnival mood across the campus were all too oblivious. It didn't wait till late evening to come through up there in Lowell. I remember sitting looking out the window into the dusk from Smith Hall, and the bushes outside the window were thrashing away like there was an alley cat fight - some kind of big wind struck. The front arrived right around 6:30 pm... Makes sence... It was about 40 mile NE of PWM at 3:30, moving SW at 40 mph at least - it was really leaning trees when it came through. It came through at almost wind advisory level. Not sure what the rate of the temp fall was.. .but it was 38 F the next morning there, and it really didn't move much during the day.. maybe 40. Basically, 50 point correction. I've witnessed some 45ers on a couple of occasions, but never 50+ That's that is like the Feb 1978 of BDs

heh... what? - what are we talking about here? I was just snarking that autumns snow in october, and bud out shrubs in early decembers ... and that it's been 80 several times in february's and march's ... and then packing pellet flurries several times in mays ( which means it's a matter of time before a synoptic wave event happens to time with one of those cold layouts). And I put last years f'ed up 4th of july bs right in that same oddity envelope/causality, too. at least...i was "thinking" all that lol. but sure... history repeats. civilization out performs its own necessity and apathy takes over which leads to loss of competences ...inexorably ending up in self destruction? sure - altho, this dip shit dumb ass move by Putin has only galvanized the Euro front and it's allies that are of western cultural heritage... a salubrious revitalization of western interests that always wants to realize societies NOT in Putin's ( and China's taking notes) vision ... Good work jaggovs.. It's really catastrophically inept work by agency-scaled intellegentsia. In fact, it's so badly failing logic and just "duh-ism" that it only leads me to believe that this "Existential threat ..." thing they said would imperil nukes? It isn't really over Russia's existence... It's really about the death of him and his cohorts vision/ideologies, and being on the wrong side of history and not accepting that. In simple terms, it is the demagogue's ambition that is under threat - not Russia. So that kind of feeds back favorably in lot of long winded popsicle headache course work ways, toward western civilization vitality. ...If they don't get vaporized in the process.

The worst example of this I ever observed was more synoptic in scale ...waaay back in the early spring of 1985. I think it was late March into early April. There was an unusual early season continental warm dome, probably anchored in a -PNA. But, the NAO was (likely..) just neg enough, that the Maritime nadir was parked still a bit too close for comfort ... banishing New England out of the carnival mood and lilac fragrances so badly it was like reading about Eden inside an Igloo. Oh my god.. did we hurt for it ... just like being in hell should. It was 87 F in Albany one of those days along that five day Mardi Gras in which their exuberant lavish taunted from outside our prison. Now, I lived in Rockport Ma at the time... so yeah that exaggerated matters, ...but trust me... it wasn't hugely better in BED-ORH in that cluster f'n rectal set up. The hyper front had set up from like BTV to HFD ... paralleling the NW flow aloft as it meandered around set Martime low.. Anywhere NE of that smelled like GOM lobster urine and hands were jammed in pockets. Basically, it was 80s to 38 astride the front. We had elevated thunder one day, while staying cold... that was the warm air getting about as close as it would.... Parole denied though. The dome and total hemisphere just modulated into a new paradigm where the ridge flattened and everything suppressed into just normal butt bang April New England. My family had just transplanted from southern Michigan the previous year... I suppose the hidden virtue of suffering that sense of loss, as acutely exacting as it was ... The lesson was indelible. I have never since under estimated New England's ability to prove that god is really some kind of a complete asshole -

Personally it seems more and more like nothing lines up with anything anymore

Lol … yeah deep snow pack … gone by the fire sign Aries.

I'm just looking at the T1 temperatures for Logan through the daylight hours of Monday... woask! Not that we didn't know it was coming but impressive numbers to say the least. -5 C steady the whole way. Here's the thing ... the RH values at 700 mb on that grid are 60 to 70% ... If there's a miasma of milk in the skies neutering the sun at all in that sounding, that wipes out the March 28th factor and is really how we'll challenge low max temperatures. As well as cold scorch these early budders

This is precisely my intention in the years to come... Will and I have mused about this in the past. Leaving at the end of March and never having to see the climate cesspool that is April in New England. I'll risk the rare year that its utopic ... knowing that it is far more probable that a forecast will say it's going to be that way, only to have one's head jammed up the GOM of anus seemingly on purpose... Lol...'but how do I really feel' No but if you really have the option - use it!