Typhoon Tip

It's pretty fantastic how fast this thing unlidded its way east ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The scatology is directed at God 'Anus' is his/her month - we didn't afflict ourselves which his/her being an asshole. as for today ... mm, among the fastest I've seen clearing aspect move across the land. 4 hours ago it was over Rochester NY? It's just passed Springfield Mass ... At this rate, it will clear the east coast by 1pm ... I thought it 50 mph by index finger rule, but that had to be closer to 75. That's pretty quick. So fairness to objectivity, today may earn a B grade over the F of this morning... heh

Man... the more I look at this .. this week is really not that great. There were valid synoptic interpretations to see it as better, but now that we're on top of it ...each day is getting butt banged for a different reason. Today, the this cloud lag and light rain... Tomorrow could be WAA cloud packed... Thursday - you know...that may not even be a backdoor now that I look at this. It really appears the warm front never comes back through on Wednesday to begin with. It gets to maybe Hartford, then stalls... Then, pressure rises around PSM some imperceptible amt and that's the ball game. It's not a BD if your already in bondage - Friday may end up the best day - we'll see. But the ,main front limps through overnight Thursday, and cleans out the Gulf of Maine colon blow ... but no aggressive backside CAA. Moisture elevations appears to want that afternoon to be sunnier ... could be 70 aoa 4pm ish. Then next week, winter begins in accordance with the models' inability to factor seasonal forcing... Welcome to month of Anus

Morning satellite certainly offering less confidence ... yikes. There is a back edge, one of those no cloud to full sun immediately types, pressing east through upstate NY ... Lucky cow-poke townships and farm land bust out, while we bust machine guidance. Boo ya 150 mi W of the Capital District. It appears to be moving around 50 mph... I'm not sure that times very far E of the Berkshires until afternoon, not without acceleration or dissolving/hole punching along the way. MEX had 70 for KFIT/KASH/KBED and that ain't happening in June with 0 sun. It'll be interesting to see how this evolves. By the way, did you see the classic BD on Thursday? One of two things happens here: One, the NAM is just wrong ... in which case the front holds up precariously, but holds up nonetheless ... roughly RUT-PWM or thereabouts. Two, the NAM in more right ... in which case, it is actually underdone. If the front gets that bullied in, it is unlikely to hold up with that full bladder of cold lobe ( 21 Z position Chris just posted ). It'll keep obtruding rudely SW clear to NYC ...

That's a cold extended on that Euro ...geesh

There's a deep winter storm on the charts though ... I mean, it's not situated 50 mi E of the eastern tip of L.I., no, but there's something to be said for having one exist. In a pure scientific/objectivity ...it matters that the Dakotas and southern Alberta may get walloped by snow and wind. It's tough to be philosophical as winter enthusiasts, when it's 60 to 76 F under shards of suns, yes - but what could have been might have been visualized correctly. Just didn't happen precisely here... Tough to ask anyone to nail a geography in vulnerable period, in spring no less if the idea is a longer lead.

right - we're better off if the main front whiskeys through. almost a guilty pleasure watching a BD air mass arrive then get fisted out by a front within 12 hours

I wonder why ECMWF is so willing to start giving out products less sale ... interesting. I have a paranoid muse that it's a marketing ploy - because they are about to release some kind of super tech that makes the current stuff seem primitive.

You know ... I've seldom observed that, a burst in of "Ahh," soothing cold rush of air while suffering a torrid afternoon. In my experience, back doors either correct from mild teases to loathing cold ( with na na na-na na warm air lurking in NJ). But I've never personally gone from bigger heat to 'drink of cold air' relief. I wonder why that is. Maybe it is an artifact that back door front phenomenon tends happen more readily when already the pattern fights itself for warmth. It is in technically still a larger cool manifold ... Clawing for a warm air mass - in which case, ...the warmth we're trying to will into the area isn't systemically apt to be higher heat in the first place - if we get into the party ( rarely...), it's breaking middling warmth to go back the other way. Big heat needs a total synoptic manifold at continental scales to really happen. Those scenarios won't typically contrast 100 F air drowning NYC in sweat, while it's 50 in PWM ... That's beyond the d(T) typology over the front. Something like this... They do occur though, 'ahh corrections.' They're just rarer. The closest I recall was April 2002 ... We had been lavishing in an absurdly warm spring to begin with.. I think I saw 90 a couple of times by Easter ...certainly strings of 80s. It was crazy. I was living in Waltham at the time, metro-west USA of broad streets and parking lots, brick and mortar, with just a few parks here and there, along with the sylvan glades that immediately line the Charles River. I mean it's closer to 'urban hot' amid those I-95 towns than it is offering rural soil tempered a.c., when the wind is west and the sun is higher in the sky. We piled out of work and hit the courts for sets of Tennis blithely complacent, the warmth was so persistent that spring. Truly weird but no one was complaining... It was the utter anti-climate for New England April - perhaps a 50::1 return rate or longer oddity. One such day that month of lore the temperatures had soared to 93 F by 1 pm. I was working at the time along the 900 block of Comm Ave, right across from B.U.'s rec center - although they had demoed the property and built a sport arena since, I believe. Anyway, I remember the front came through around 1:30 ..2pm ... and it was 63 inside of 20 minutes there. The sky line of the city had those sailor's ghost cloud shrouds just spilling around the buildings, racing SW. Meanwhile .. higher dark based CU with their bubbling turrets, leaned over and stripped toward the NE. The college bustling to and fro of the Greenline T-stop beneath our 2nd story window, in their shorts and halter tops, had taken to huddling in groups, arms crossed, like Emperor Penguins. Their purple thighs caught by the abruptness of the change - I would imagine that was an unwanted change for a 20 year old female. Just guessing, ha. But it was hot, and if someone were stressing from 93/54 ( typical dry heat types of April), a the rushing in of that BD air mass might have actually been soothing.

There might be an interesting temperature surge after ~ 2 pm ...west toward the east, across the region today. We'll labor to rise against the lingering N flow that continues during the morning, astride and E of the narrow ridge that runs N-S roughly along 75 W. The sun will do its bidding and still make the high 50s by 18z, during the period ... But then pressure pattern changes rather abruptly as the ridge breaks down. Suddenly, it's orienting modest but significant enough gradient to import a W veering to the winds. All the warmer, sun-baked air mass that's over PA and E NY then floods E. It's like a warm front without having one on the map.. Sort of experimental but it will be interesting to see if the temperatures late high across the region, with 21 Z jumps.

actually saturday's more of a SW flow then d-slope

I have to admit... I am surprised by that. The last 24 hours of runs have edged the 'real' warm air ( that open expanse of the 850 mb +11 to +14C barotropic region) now into S-SW zones for Wednesday. In fact, the Euro has the +10C/850 mb to Rt 2 even. There are even convective knots spanning eastern NY to mid coast Maine in the QPF ... seems likely those are warm frontal instability induced. So you're right. The boundary appears to lay through southern VT/NH. Nooormaly I would not dare to trust that precarious set up, not with our month of Anus climo. However, we seem to benefit from an anomalously low amount confluence over Ontario to Quebec - considering a Lake's cutter ... The eastern end really should rage SW down to the Va Capes. Ha! But we are only 60 hours away from 20 Z Wednesday afternoon so I guess it is what it is... we get lucky?? The other possibility, if those convective nodes are legit, the outflow could accelerate the boundary back SW later Wednesday so.. Thursday finally doors on the Euro, tho. It's pretty clear in the PP. With that lobe around look, nosing down from the NE, that's warm sector cancel culture. In the warmer scenario winning, S of that diffused boundary ( S VT/NH) the skies ~ < 60% RH in the ceilings (700 - 300 mb). That's the day to make 80 in my book. Saturday sneaks in a backside nape/d-sloper. I suspect the cold is over done as usual for early next week.

Yeah of the two ...that latter one is likely more real, but even it looks a little injected by the run. ... blah blah. In any case, the GEFs want a rise in the PNA out there - ...we'll see what the sun does to fill the pattern and how/if the models figure that out. It seems like the models don't see the sun getting stronger, out in time, during April. Every year I see them take the initialized heat quota, ...then spend 7 days figuring out how to scrub it from the run. By D10 we're back before the Equinox where the model wants us to be - as though the hemisphere were not getting daily dosed by increasing radiation. ...kidding a little here but it's annoying.

Are we sure that's hail ptype in 528 to 534 dam hydrostatic heights and 850 mb < 0C ?

That D7 thing looks entirely model fabricated - there's only vague continuity from the previous day that would cause that extent of mid level implosion of heights. This model does this D5-7 on every run... It takes whatever's in the flow, smooths out everything around it, and then exaggerates the remainder. Short version, bullshit run

Low freezing levels. The hail here was very sleet like - I'm suspicious whether some heavier cores were mixing that ptype.

Thank you guys, very much, for those well-wishes during this time welling over in sorrow. I lost my job this last December, and in lot of very pragmatic ways more so than symbolic, it was a well-timed inconvenience. Perhaps the trope, 'things happen for a reason,' is more than mere platitude. My sister needed regular shuttling to and fro for treatments - her ability to do so had become too compromised, and the rest of family and friends spread out quite far ... with her weakened immune system and Covid - it just was what it was, thankfully. It was a time to reflect of course, ... but delving deeper into life and philosophy become quite difficult to plumb when what lurks there is finality. Her cancer was incurable, though she was trying. Even I was perhaps denying, for her faculties never faded, right up to the end. Fully cognizant. Acutely, cruelly aware. Her lucidity along the days, it just made it so difficulty to see a future in this way. And so now in hindsight, I was too disconnected: that was her journey of death. If that's what that looks like, no one is safe. I'm pretty sure this run-in with Covid was helped along by traversing that reality.

Define a shit week: Sister dies, two days later, COVID positive ...

'atmospheric ducting' .... the typical nocturnal inversion (also) gets enhanced by/when rain cools(ed) air. But the sound waves travel more efficiently in the cooler denser air, such that they deflect back downward along the elevated boundary - it's quasi-amplification process. Thunder typically does sound louder at night in those settings. In mid summer, breezy and cT air types ..not so much, because the nocturnal inversion is either too shallow and/or doesn't exist at all.

Not to be priggish but ... I was analyzing the fields on the various guidance more closely and it appears to me that the warm front never actually gets through here in the first place. The models pin it south through the week. They may raise sfc pressure modestly to 'rub it in' Wed but it first materializes through PA Monday and arcs E but S of SNE...and doesn't actually end up N of us at any time afterward... I'm okay with it really. Ne'er had expectations/ambitions for that to succeed. Hell, it's the month of Anus ... (Jan, Feb, Mar, Anus, May...). It's the planned cold dumpster timing of the planetary system to use specifically New England as a means to offset the entire climate change quota That said, Monday ends up 67 at 5 pm amid imperceptible west drift for me in that look. Easy call that MOS is likely too chilly in that look. Euro has 56 in the area? joke. It'll be milder than that with those synoptic params. I mean, as long as it ain't pointing Labrador's butt as us ... I don't have expectations beyond 67 with near or at full sun, anyway, and with light west flag wobbles (no ocean) we don't need warm sectors VIP to party. Still a chance to modulate of course.

Tomorrow and Saturday look surprisingly mild actually... Also, Euro backed off the BD next week considerably - though at this range we are still no where close to trusting that. But as is, this 12z run synopsis suggest CT/western MA ascend deep into the 70s Wed and Thur, and you could argue the low 70s Tuesday afternoon. It's been vacillating on that ..

It doesn't look that way from what I'm seeing over the overnight information. Oh ...it could turn out that way, a 'torch,' subjectivity of that expression notwithstanding... but for now? Not really. The Euro is now two consecutive runs with a BD that would penetrate to at least central NJ in that look - both yesterday's 12z and this recent 00z last evening. That ends it on Wednesday mid day for SNH and in reality, ...it's slamming screen doors and taut flags cutting back SW during the afternoon in that synopsis it shows - that's both experience and climo talking there. You should probably keep in mind, that is more typical spring into early summer behavior in our climatology, warm mid ranges that end up only delivering the first day of the series before the reality obtrudes. The GFS seems less BD, but just is so hurried and progressive with over all flow, that by the time the warm sector comes in the front's already knocking on the regional door mid week. Not only that, because it is ablating the top of the ridge so flat ( I suspected bias in this range ), it's not cleaning out the warm sector when it arrives. That's called a 'dirty sector' ... Despite those hydrostatic heights nearing 560 dm... you're skies are misty. Welcome to the 60s with occasional light showers whisking by in between splashes of sun. It'll help green up, sure... but otherwise? that's getting jipped. GGEM doesn't look a whole helluva lot different than the GFS. I wonder if folks are seeing the general curvature of the non-hydrostatic height/500 mb circulation manifold, and running to the bank with it. The details of the operational runs say pump the breaks. I'm not suggesting a cleaned out/longer period warming can't happen ... But it seems the details are being ignored. And, also fits climo for the month of Anus to not succeed the former. It's all 120+ hours so there's time. We'll see if there swing back in favor of opening things up again.

dry air doesn't fit the CC model but ... we'll see - I'm not here to disagree; just adding info

No one asked me so ... not intending to butt-in, but I don't have a problem with nuclear at all. It's a matter of prioritizing, within reason, as a transient gap control. That is/for while green technologies come of age and come on line. In other words, no one should be suggesting we fire up the reactors and walk away interminably. Spent fuel can be disposed of for 50 years worth, and it probably would not take that long anyway. It's all bullshit. If there was a gun pointed at policy maker heads, we'd ave 10% carbon foot print in 10 years but it's excuses that originate from sources that either don't believe, or don't understand, where this problem is: against the bubble.

it appears to be a shittier outlier comparing all disappointing EPS fields ...so.