Typhoon Tip

Believe me, I share this sentiment with you ... Thankfully ( phew!) ... look at this incredible flip into warmth the GFS is offering up in the extended!

The synoptic cinema looks “phasier” than usual. Streams have a better chance of dynamic interaction in this kind of regime we’re seeing depicted. That 22nd as we know has been popping up … but attention is obviously eclipsed by this thing in the foreground here. It’s happening on the other side of the PNA surge … near enough in time to the max that it’s just as likely the continent is not yet responded to the index falling off because it’ll take time for the Pacific to transmit the signal this far east. Meanwhile the NAO is trying to slip slightly negative. Bottom line it’s not a terrible index scoring to have going on during a pattern with a “phasey” suggestion to it.

Just as an orbital perspective… I can see traits of just about every model rendition I saw over the past week. A little GGEM, a little bit of Euro, a little bit of GFS even a little bit of Nam… I kept seeing something that reminded me of a specific model run from XYZ tool some three or four days ago and what has transpired during the day today it’s like they were all right and they were all wrong, depending on which cycle… If we blended them all, the entire “super ensemble” …I bet it would look just about identical to what actually happened

No power up here in north central Massachusetts now working on 2 1/2 hours…. House getting chilly

Transformer boom lights out in Ayer my part of town anyway.

Sort of ... it will seem that way for a couple hours, and worse where's yet to even do much. I can't imagine the mere 3 hours of moderate snow between 495 and the coast has really amounted to much at 34 ... 35 F. In that range/region this is probably closer to feeling like jip -job. But the now-cast is interesting. There's a broad swath of moderate to heavier snow that extend around the western deformation arc across eastern NY down to NYC-ish... that's west beyond this 'dry hole' in midriff region. Meanwhile, there's a stationary band down near Brockton that looks like it maybe snowing shovel size glump aggregates enough to hear their impacts... This storms lack of cold and gradient along a defined baroclinic axis caused all this irregularity and mal-formed production. We talked about this at length in the run up...it was causing the models to plot lows all over the place... as well blowing this open into this shredding... Anyway, the western arc may come through later on...

Heh ...they do happen from time to ....long ass time... 1978, 1992, 1997 ... etc. But yup, the return rate's probably less than the model portrayal rate - will to guess. I'd also argue that since the era of higher gradient between the subtropic latitudes and the poles ( increased in winters) kicked in a few years back, the faster tendencies overall has limited the likeliness of that kind of behavior. In fact, this is one of the slower solutions we've probably seen in recent years... It's lowered overall impact is mostly related to p.o.s. ass vomit out of winter's bum air mass in place, though... and no source during. It was all going to have to be "manufactured" ... It's why it's up to 34 here, and hearing drips in the middle of the Nor'easter... it's f'n mid March. But we lost something like an inch in rain overnight when the Berk's roof top was glaciating. Too early to go completely post-mortem but just the mid storm impression... or latter storm

It's starting to look like this event's maxed already for much of the region. Sat argues for a 'relative bust' on any stall position E of Logan ... we'll see

I suspect N-central CT has a couple of issue going on... One is the remnant dry slot, which is now slowly filling as the new center is in the process of reorganizing E... But there may also be a bit of shadowing going on.

verified the Warning here... 7.5" 32 presently S/S+ ...VIS definitely down more so than prior hours of this though. 1/3 mi or so

Rad p/type just surged to the coast ... went from between 495 and 128 to Arlington Heights in like 10 minutes of sweep... It happened, interestingly enough, right when my aggregate size when small... I had just got done entering a post about the snow type being large with no particles in the gap... visibility being disproportionately up for S/S+ ... etc, when no sooner...poof.. .now we have uniform smaller sizes and also a wind shift more from ENE to NNE ... so something's up

6" as of 10:30am temp won't budge from 32.5 ...perfectly wrong should this kind of snow just continue on infinitum. Really would trade the entire f'um storm if it means not losing power -seriously. I really don't give a ratz ass about this stuff when my house is 100% electric. Be that as it may ... we are snowing S since 5 am or whatever... with occasional suggestion of S+ (Ayer), but interestingly ...the visibility is never really much below 3/4 to a mile. I think it is because of the wetter nature of the aggregates. They are big, and there's no smaller particles filling the gaps between them as they are fluttering down. It' really rather mesmerizing to stare at for very long. You close your eyes and the illusion of them lingers.. But, those smaller 'gap particle' filling the medium between is what really brings the vis down. So the vis metric cannot really be used to deduce the fall rate. It's not typical vis for S bordering on S+ Just a nerdy tedium ob.

That matches here in Ayer. 36 with 1 in 10 impacts are paws

I'm already getting a dash of cat paws with these light rain drops at a raw 38 ... Hate to sound like a goober but it really does smell like it out there. I'm not going the other way around here. If this comes down hard after dark, it's snow - no question. I just have difficulty believing in this situation that you're area has to be that much different. I almost feel that that the pivoting of the rain/snow into N/S axis during today could just be an artifact of this present rendition of noise - I mean the GFS isn't necessarily constrained by physics into having to plow a warm micro node into NE Mass like that ... it's just randomness.

Cat paws along side R- drops in Ayer. 38 You can smell snow in the air - really the first time this year I've been able to. interesting. There's a feel to it that if this came down any harder, we'd be over to snow with rapidity. It just a matter of eradicating this gossamer low level "warm" layer.

Don't get me started ... I've been trying to sort of poetically emphasize, there's too much technical deep dive reliance, and not even common sense ... The orbital perspective of the 'dominate factorization forest' provides and impression of its make-up that is obfuscated by the trees.. so to speak Not always - no... These tools are meant to supplement, though. Not take over... and fact of the matter is ( and too your point ) if one is being too far gone reliant You know, actually you can't really look at everything in time. Imagine that? Trying to categorize quantitative amounts of qualitative forecast metrics across a broad array, and then synthesize any kind of idea from? In 6 hour before the next siege that quickly replaces .... Nah. You'd almost need a super computer to integrate all the gunk coming off these super computers.

Could be either.. heh. I mean, that's the N/stream part of this phasing. There's not much that can be gleaned from that loop, as to how it will perform down stream - unfortunately. But, having it actually there and impressive means there will be a performance - I suppose it's good for that reason alone.

You guys do this... You get this array of models all collocating at long last upon a consensus, then run out and look for any dark outlier you can find in order to turtle inside a neurotic left-out-of-the-party carapace jeezus. fuckign rap models

wow... quite the rotational kinematic display cutting its way SE out of the Great Lakes this hour. It's got spiral arms ...like a galaxy

ha... took you this long? I get that way about Feb 15th every year. -or something like that

To be fair, the Euro is behind American guidance of couple of hours; we don't know if that comparison is true per 12z ...

Considering all that is immensely distracting at this time ... reasonably high probability that I am the only person on the planet that's thinking about this. Thursday has 850 mb near 0C ... in pure unabated Equinoxian sun. Winds are very light, too. So the 2-meter is 44 on the synoptic products. The machine numbers don't go out that far. But I've seen it be 60 F in mid February over a snow pack with 0C at 850 mb - not that the boundary layer gets that tall. But the adiabatic assumption is still going to be 70 .. 80% well enough. Anyway, bottom line ... major nape day/d-slope dandy. I could see that being 53 or 54 F with gullies bubbling with quick work of tomorrows snow pack. I'm just nerdly enough to think this is interesting -

I'm hoping someone who cares enough just a little more than me ( lol) to put in the tedium, a long duration high res loop of this things life cycle is going to be gorgeous cinema - regardless of where/what happens from it. Look at this zygote cyclone near Cape Hatteras... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Hatteras-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It can happen though, too.. I mean that's what I was saying a while ago, all these solutions are plausible. It's not about impossibility. I recall a coastal monitoring effort not too many years ago... within the last five, where there was 'convective robbing' and most thought it was grid scale feed-back but it turned out to be the case that a conglomerate of convection erupted escaping the SE coast and we had to sit there and watch and say, 'well, guess it was real' I remember thinking it was a pretty damn fantastic model performance to initiate convection and use it to force the synoptic evolution - It doesn't mean that's the case for this thing. Situations are not the same. This really has just an off the hook 500 mb/ ml evolution potentiality and it's ability to force matters below is quite impressive. It's a matter of tuning in the guidance -

someone should initiate an obs/now-cast thread for this event. Like 200 pages isn't enough...I think we've beat the horse enough anyway