Typhoon Tip

There is some chance this 19th/20th feature suppresses S-E in time. The advertised pattern change nearing and especially post the 20th, may be indirectly involved in why. Noticing in both the GGEM and Euro solutions...riding is approaching the western continent and coming on board over the end frames of the 00z run. That may influence the aspects already over the eastern continent. May be evidenced in the NAO telecon, which is slumping through the period, ... moving a scalar mode of ~+1SD toward neutral. While not a phase reversal, I suspect that is responding to the 'crunch' of the wave spacing across N/A ( transitively causing the NAO domain heights to begin to rise 2ndary/ or non-linear wave response if we wanna get into a popsicle headache). But that backs us into a plausibility for less Lakes cutter. The thing is... the EPS and GEPs are not interested - so that puts this into a low confidence, albeit still non-zero chance for success. Sometimes, however, the souped up main operational versions begin to converge on an idea and through rarer, the less refined dispersed solutions then gather in the other direction. I wouldn't bother to mention this post but...we in fact have modeled hemispheric en mass circulation modulation taking place that offers feasibility. So we'll see

Sloppy analysis ... I have not honesty been paying much attention to today's affairs. But just cursory eval against synoptic awareness, a nice little warm advection snow burst. Radar filling in rather quickly over CT and western MA over the last hour..

Noting the NAO slump ... not really a mode change, but it is neutralizing from +1 SD - may be the other side of the same coin with the PNAP changes forcing the NAO domain down. Either way, that might be a sensitivity indicator/suppression tendencies correcting in small but crucial amount, given time.

Also, did anyone notice SE zones could be clipped by ocean storm or OES enhances between D4 and 5?

There is a chance this could evolve sooner with a risk insert... While the 19th/20th may not directly be embedded in the extended range pattern change expectation, but could transitively be influenced ( that outta sound confusing!). The GGEM and Euro ideas surrounding +PP building over QUE and confluence in that area, might be getting enhanced by the ridge surging into western N/A - this latter aspect is the leading edge of the changes ... so, there may be some causality there. Anyway, this is not unheralded, these solutions with cold available at least to CNE and possibly to the Pike in Mass ( if not colder?). I thought yesterday that the bigger polar high idea the GFS had the previous day ...might not be baseless. And it still isn't. There's time ...

You all need another “”fix” to rely upon in times like these other than these models lol

yeah ..this totally happens all the time ....

The GFS offers yet a third option to the EPS vs the GEFS ... No pattern at all - This run has a 9.4 wave pattern over the Hemisphere at D11.5. Garbage solution. It's clearly having trouble on the interface between patterns out there. I'd definitely sans any operational GFS runs outside of 7 or so days, even more so than the normal for extended shenanigans, until NCEP figures out the physics of non-linear wave mechanics...

It’s really not a bad day to look frankly but it may turn active sooner

That first one kind of reminds me of 9394

I’m thinking that the GEF’s machine is trying to see a negative EPO frankly

lol, yup When I was younger I used to hate that… Because it always started happening just when the snow pack was going to really get crazy-we’ve never really had a snow pack really get crazy. 2015 was the closest we ever got to that psycho realm … but the storm train shut off. The last week of February into that March stay very cold with deeply negative daytime highs in the 20s if not high teens, deep into March but there was no storms. It all just shut off as though the hemisphere just ran out of short waves. I always felt that if we had kept up the storm train we could’ve actually made that something special that year something like a 6 foot on the level pack. Ye 1700s style i’ve never been a snow depth guy. Mainly just cause it’s too frequently challenged. But once in a while will get the resting snow pack like between storms around 30 … 32 inches and I start to wonder. It always seems to choose that rough depth to fade back or stop. Talking about where I’ve been in that 300 to 500 foot elevation range. I’m sure it’s different for people of above 700

Yeeeeah it does but, transitions like that don’t happen on a dime. It’ll start being noticeably more twilight at 5:30 and slightly warmer sun to the skin and all that shit probably in the last week of January etc. I mean slight first. Just using that as a vague sort of metric. Folks shouldn’t be offended by that though - just in case - because most of the damage in 2015 (for ex) happened after the solar min ended that month. Really doesn’t mean jack shit until probably the ides of March. The snow retention may be affected because sun shining will start to shard the snow back … detail that only an excruciating nerd would know lol

You know it’s model runs like that GFS… Does NCEP really parameterize the models to deliberately stop storms from forming Heh. Just reading the onion during lunch… In the spirit of their headlines, “NCEP cites ability to stop storm genesis in forecast models a ringing success”

Tough before the solar min ends but yeah… good warm-up recognition for that sort of thing as we head into the nape time of year in about 3 weeks. Same look’ll pop 62 and likely blow MOS/machine numbers first week of Feb. Be interesting to see.

Oh …all that, sure I was just amusing over the surgical precision that model made in abasing the -EPO comments I made earlier in the day… haha. yeah I mean it’s a pattern change so there’s gonna be weird variations on it most likely until it gets closer and all that jazz. It was just funny. Like whatever the great model engineer in the sky, must’ve been listening went oh yeah fuck you. I swear did actually occur to me yesterday that even though it was predominantly a positive PNA emergent so I was wondering if it might try to retrograde into that look.

Madcap hilarity ... man I don't know if any actually paid attention to content in posts today, but... this morning I ventured that the pattern change wouldn't likely be preceded by a -EPO burst, where by a nervy audience would suffer seeing the trough carve west... HA! Seemingly on purpose, what summarily comes from the GFS? THIS

And I would also further that that is not uncommon result in modern more recent climate mode all over the planet. A lot of places are making seasonal quota in short duration from what are called “rain bomb” phenomenon (which “rain“ in this context means any precipitating event). Fwiw, attribution flags they’re related to elevated ambient pwat around or injecting into any kind of rain mechanisms. I posted a don’t give up post over in the NYC Metro sub forum yesterday and I had a lot of this in mind. Setting up two or three week favorable regimes it’s probably something like three or four opportunities to observe precipitation anomalies that make up deficits

Like this particular post. For winter enthusiasm, there need be a changing of the guard, first, in order to “set the table” — entering a regime that has better chances to placate what it is you’re after. This post above recognizes the table as being set, without committing one way or the other. But that’s all that is required for now. Those who feel seasonally lovelorn… You’re at least getting word that girl or guy of your dreams has been talking about you. That may precede an actual phone call lol

The pattern changing and the potential to succeed is all very real, guys. I realize there’s sarcasm and low patience - related blow back but … whether the new paradigm actually rolls eyes back in a d-drip winter event in the models or not, bears no relevancy to whether that happens. Having said that … regime changes can be led and/or exit with events. It seems there is prelim attempt to do so … but it could also be rain/west tracked ordeal just the same

And it seems like these sort of wholesale change scenarios are less often timed in guidance altogether accurately. It will either come in more abruptly, or stage

ok, so looking over the ensembles, cross -guidance, there is some sort of event or risk around the 19th/20th - mind you, D8/9 is extended range, but not exactly over the horizon given the day and age. It is of the open wave/progressive handling. It is also a sub-index driven event, which is interesting, because the pattern from Japan around the globe begins to rapidly modulate toward a +PNA and/or a pattern that would burgeon western heights - so + "PNAP" either way. By just short days later, we see that really taking over the ensemble means. The atmosphere is tentatively marginal+1 ..so likely rain.. And there is still western biased solution potential. Nevertheless, there have been run cycles offering more cold high pressure over QUE, so a colder profile scenario and track suppression is an option on the table Re pattern change: Again...it is not merely ensemble suggestive but is also derivative by other means related to shorter and longer term air and/or sea telecon. There's suggestion of their source regions coming into constructive interference - of course predicated on a some stability, which is unfortunately in question. We'll have to see. But I get the personal sense that it is real. Probably a -AO (modestly)/+PNA with a negotiable NAO ... So far the EPO does not appear to lead this transition with the canonical negative burst, which may be a good thing for the nerve-spooked winter enthusiasts ... Not having to suffer seeing week of the continent imploding through the Rockies first in the guidance would be nice for a change ...

When was the 10th idea floated ? This period has frankly looked like shit to me the whole way… The idea for circa 20th has been suggestive in the ensembles, but only recently has that been derivative from a broader inclusion of both technique and observation.

It's a little fast... broad scale systemic changes are likely in the circulation mode ...pretty much all over the atmosphere, but the timing is really 20th+ ... It is not clear if that above is part of that. There is going to be more confluence evolving in Canada as part of the new regime, ..woulda thunk more 25-ish. That 1040 high has some deep 2-meter temperatures associated with it. Haven't seen a lot of that this year. Bit of a first... If future guidance start flagging these polar highs, the notion isn't lost.

Oh ... speaking of Will's 2015 homage to flat snow pigs...