Typhoon Tip

Frankly… I’m not sure I trust them if they were modeling yesterday at this point.

Yeah it’s decent… It closes off that 500 mb surface there … implies bit of in situ frontogenic forcing. Even hints IVT convergence NYC does well … even though it has tosnow at 12 in./hr to stick anywhere downtown at this time of year in that thermal cauldron of a city

I mean to elaborate a little what Scott just said… It’s like the northern stream behave like it should “IF” the southern Stream was there, which is odd because the southern stream is missing …. so the whole run looks weird.

You beat me to it ha ha

Yeah, that whole evolution of suspicious to me

Yeah, the solution is a little suspicious.

Still quasi-bombs, though

And rainy lol

Jeez y’all come off as mordant while thinking you don’t really sound that way

Fwiw - there’s another interval to this signal … suggesting a slower break down. It’s around the 18th.

I've been harping on the aspect of the GFS' progressive bias that cumulates out in time... As it nears, it gradually reduces that incrementally as the time shortens - it really appears to me like we're seeing it doing something like this. The first aspect it would tend to correct toward short wave lengths, where the more dominant N/stream has the larger integrating force/wave spacing. This next Tuesday's totality, by the way ( for the general reader) is actually more of subsume model phasing. People were trying to compare this to '97 but it would actually be more in the 1978 type of evolution, where the western ridge gives the N stream a nudge S. Combined with the southern stream well times passing underneath lowers isohypsotic resistance ( height contours and shear related ) down she comes and fuses cold core heights with a ton of S stream pwat dynamics ... Granted ... Tuesday's interplay is not nearly as elegant as this above - pretty much the immaculate example. But.. the gist is still the same.

Ends up impressive without it, too.

Well.. anyway.. straight up blend of the GEFs/EPS/GEPs is probably the best way to go for now. Likeable trends on going so we'll see where we go from here.

The funny thing I’ve been noticing with that… The wave length looks too long between San Francisco and Boston. It’s almost like the models are trying to rush this thing to the east… I don’t know if that’s any kind of a sign or anything but that definitely looks like a stressed wave length.

Yeah I was throwing the Euro a bone there some. It’s just that of the two I find the GFS a little more egregious because it was transfixed in its error. I mean at least the euro wended its way to the truth – but I distinguish things like that.

It’s a good thing this is all happening outside and not inside of D4 in the models huh lol

Hey man.. I defended the Euro on that last snow event that did well up your way... The GFS was too far S and cold - from what I assessed - with adamant stubbornness too. heh

Mmm it's an artifact of being captured I would think. This is a integrating event in some of these recent trends... The surface evolution - as we all know ... - ends up hesitating if not stalling, if not performing loops while doing so. But these inidividual members may or may not be fully resolving that ... "partial" in this sense would lend to a NW motion, just not as likely double-back

I would include the 2018 March Nor'easter ( the first of the bunch ...) that year.

Too bad this isn't a week later for disaster enthusiasts... There's a relatively rare Perigean spring tide scheduled for the Equinox this year, and having a system like a blend of the Euro/ICON/KR models ... would pretty much redistrict the entire shore civility from Cape May NJ all the way up to PWM Maine... (whether said civility wants it or not )

The -NAO and general blocking is fading while retrograding west...That was always part of the deal.. But it needs(ed) to time right with the other moving parts in total hemisphere. These storms seem all powerful when they're under way, but they have narrow bandwidths with leading parametrics...etc. Anyway... too much on Saturday and too little next week ... nuances that need to be overcome.

I see that kind of head scratch all the time in general graphics ... I always just sort of assumed it's a resolution issue. As far as the UKMET, I don't really use those products - pretty much ever ... - as their stinginess to allow general access when the fact of the matter is, all over modeling tech is competitive if not superior in some aspects, puts me off on them. Still, that strikes me as one graphic system "estimating" based on a coarser resolution, whereas the other being finer meshed ...etc etc.

it's a red flag ...always has been with that model system and handling these west atlantic scenarios

It was 64.6 degrees as 1:32 pm on March 28th up on the Wx Lab monitor at UML, 1997 3 days later, there was a 18" of blue glory ...with 30" across Metro west of Boston

trending toward sooner amplitude - im sure you can see that just sayn'