Typhoon Tip

yup, re the NAM. We discussed it was probably overdoing matters yesterday ..but blowing it by 30 to 40 is pretty astounding - this is the 2nd time in the last week that model has been overzealous with the llv ... but, it going down now and fact of the matter is, by 3 or 4 in the morning we will have found our way down to what the NAM was selling anyway. So it's really a matter of timing/aggression. That said, it's kind of playing with a loaded gun and unfair, too. The difference between NYC, FIT Ma, and the air temp over Cape Cod Bay/Labradorian current, is three distinct climates really...so a bust here is unfairly extra super primo bonkers when it happens - particularly in April. Flip the wind E and that can cause some truly extraordinary short term corrections.... which it has done in the past. Man, case in point 1998: 91 to 39 in 10 hours in NE Mass. Numero Uno biggest zonked correction ever - that wasn't a bust though... It was very well forecast. Anyway, it's 74 here now and just about perfect. That 93 earlier was over board too much to fast for no acclimation. Same was true yesterday - All history now until further notice.

Was mentioning that comparison early, yeah... This exceeds 1998 by 2-3 F in general, but it's also 2 weeks and couple days later in the solar calendar, during a time of year when 2 weeks a couple days might actually matter. I can actually recall a low sun angle thinking back 2 weeks ...because my dorkiness knows no bounds LOL The quality of the air mass is really quite similar though between 1998 and now. I remember that 91 up on the UML wx lab ON that day the heat maxes, pretty vividly and it's quite similar. Today did feel hotter though here in N Middlesex Co. 93 was the high here in town. This has been one helluva a "synoptic heat burst" worth of wow

breeze or boundary or both got this far ... 81 off 93 two hours ago. It's back to just 'amazing for April' instead of ludicrous

My biggest contention with FIT's been their DP reading. It's consummately below everywhere else, sometimes by as much as 10 F

wait - 90 at ORH ?

I was just thinking about that 1976 April Dr Frank Colby and I spared a few minutes one day up in the weather lab to geek out over the hourlies that they have on disk up there. Or 'had' - not sure what their tech is these days. It used to be VAX/vms and they had their hourly obs for many many years... Anyway, we were marveling over the heat that month at the UML station site, with 92,94,96,95 string of days ... And there was a bunch in the 70s around that ... if memory serves. In fact, the month seldom saw 60s. We then figured May musta rotted in cold hell but it actually stayed warmer than normal right through - though not as extreme.

That 93 is legit... That's been my bounce T for an hr and a half

Relative to climo- absolutely... Very high probability that we will NOT be +30 in June-July It would have to be 110

Today in solar time would be relative to season, roughly equivalent to August 27th. Right now it is 93 here ... which is about 15 F above normal for August 27th happening on April 14! No matter how you cut this up it's sick. This is a hot day in August

92 (pinged 93) ... hottest I've ever experienced around here this early in a season. Unilateral bust ... NAM may yet succeed in manufacturing a later PM BD/breeze penetration but it was too cold on the front side of that timing, either way.

Ha... good metric for us here ...

It's just unworldly out there. We have no wind either. It's dead calm 91 F here. In fact, the DPs up to 53 ... it's a even getting borderline from the combination thing...

Yeah right. can't be underscored enough. I'm stunned we did this two days back to back in the general sense dude. I mean f if it's not 90 again. We don't have any worldly chance at doing this tomorrow, else we'd have the truly rare chance at official heat ... in mid April

There is a front analyzed by WPC but it's not clear it's actually "back dooring" at the moment, and ... not only that, it is no where near Boston. Boston's onshore flip isn't related to BD for the time being.

That all said, the NAM could also be over doing matter so... so there's that too. My experience having suffered the vagaries of April wind over multiple decades, chances are ... we are not sustaining 88 F for very long. It is in fact extraordinary that we are getting two days in a row of this, actually. Synoptic warm bursting is an increasing spring- period phenomenon ( Feb-Apr ), but most of them spike a single day embedded along a week of above normal..etc. This is like "thick" warmth ...in terms of integrate atmosphere energy, this may be up there with 1976.

Yeah.. again, in the stricter principle, there really isn't much of a BD? What we do have is an organizing ( potentially...) very intense sea-breeze/mass restoration moving west. Back door phenomenon happens because there is an NVA ( usually aft of a S/W diving out of Quebec toward the lower Maritime region), and that NVA supplies downward vertical motion, ...which raises surface pressure NE of the region. Then adding topographic features with a mountain range west, and flat "void" east, that air mass has a physical restoration tendency to always try and fill said empty space ... where we all happen to reside. So, the air mass starts rollin' SW ...usually "under" the synoptic look, too - which makes them particularly infuriating. Add to that, said rising surface pressure NE is taking place over some of the coldest water on the planet relative to latitude, further conditioning the air mass colder and colder and viola - the old 88 to 42 whiplash... But we don't really see all those mechanics activelly having take(taken) place... so we are in wait of a precarious scenario. Presently .. we are flopping around in the interior at all of 4 to 6 kt zephyrs, because there really isn't much gradient going the other way. Then adding we have intense interior heating ... there's likely to be a west motion getting going, whether there is a synoptically driven BD air mass involved or not.. The NAM sort of uses that total manifold of factors to create elevating surface pressure from the east/cold oceanic boundary layer, along. And once in place.. the weakish gradient can't remove it. It's an unusual behavior to perhaps conclude what is also a very unusually warm synoptic circumstance.

Quick op ed on this ... ... the present heat departure doesn't mean the statistical connection to the summer - I suspect - that some are tempted to assign. That said, to me the modeling behavior of consummately correcting the D10 to D15 range warmer, in both the non and hydro-materialized thickness, is more telling/or an indicator that supports the warm summer. The reason I suspect so is because the physical make up of these models proven to be missing a predictable factor that points toward more warmth. It's difficult to believe that is CC driven - CC doesn't mechanize models. But, their is something about the heat source and sink, ...particularly now that we are adding the solar flashing over the hemisphere, that hearkens/ if perhaps 'sets the table' for the warm outlook.

00z NAM is a Labrador ass blow by mid day tomorrow… sped up

did anyone else notice/comment on that tropical cyclone that land fell and sawed its way over Mississippi ? heh... It's like NHC was like fuggit - decided it wasn't worth it to mention

So yeah.... exceeding MOS was probably a no brainer Looks like we'll launch tomorrow morning and get pretty toasty but there's likely to be a combo s-breeze boundary/amorphous BD mash up moving W during mid day. So places like Framingham out along Rt 9 'ill be flirten with 80 or even 84, then come back out of the store and it's 63 of 'what the f'ness at mid afternoon pm ... Logan is done by noon I'd guess. The problem with tomorrow isn't so much a BD. There is a tendency to back the flow from the S to the SE due to pressure falls approaching L.I. It's sort of "instantiating" a BD affect - So if you are looking NE Maine for the tall tale signs there aren't many. Maybe modest pressure rises there. Mostly it's the pressure falls from the south tho. Notice ALB is back up to 80 Saturday and LGA is hooked under held to 68 or so on the 18z NAM FOUS...

I thought the GGEM was likely ...well, being the GGEM, wrt the 00z operational idea of a renewed warmup next week... but now the 12z GFS trended pretty significantly in that direction. Fills the weekend cool back/vortex pretty fast heading into Mon/Tue and mid week on...we're not exactly mid 80s but that's a deep layer mild look in this run

'Synoptic warm burst' 2023 ... in the books What's that now ... 4 out of the last 7 years whence we submerged our senses in +30 by day, and probably +20 night ... These have happened going back in history, sure ...these Feb-Apr jolts. But the +d(frequency) is alarming -

At a minimum the world is bizarre, but perhaps even eerie being apropos for observation out there. This kind of heat amid such a barren nuclear landscape... We have bloating in buds among the maples... a few Norwalks are into flowers, and the red maples are tinged along the glade and grove facades. Other than that and by and large, the majority of tree species are see-through. Yet so hot. It definitely smacks as ... not right. 87 under and open lasing sky

+24 in 2 hrs here. 45 to 69

Next week look partly to mostly cloud with interval showers, with high no higher than 60 the whole way. How does that statistically correlate to ensuing summers. Hmm?