Typhoon Tip

Anyway, ...that idea on the 06z Euro ... mm, might be an aggressive outlier anyway, but it's not impossible. That said, Saturday's prooobably the last hurrah of this particularly long standing, anchored +PP over Quebec. From what I'm seeing ...the Euro is most amplified with results, but they all bring scunge skies and at least light measurable at least to CT/RI latitude on Saturday. Seems to be a matter of how much.

I don't know if it should be unexpected, actually. I outlined why we can't trust warmth and dry whenever there is/has been modeled, tendencies for over top high pressure, yesterday. As usual though ...rationality is back-burnered so that people can grouse instead LOL which is why this is apparently a 'support group' more so than any other use. I keep forgetting that. d'oh!

Definitely above normal. How much, historic or just warm, who knows, but it looks protracted either way. Short version, warmth through the 15th of October would appear to be above normal confidence. The longer version, because there is vivid cross-guidance ( EPS/GEFS/GEPS ) support, for one. They all merely fade out to 380 hours, having not actually ever moved the underpinning pattern behavior (when looping) away from the -PNA; a coherent baseline in that regard is evidenced. It's impressive they all end their runs with an echo of -PNA surviving the noise/entropy of the distant range. Another less obvious but useful signal/confidence is when looping these, the individual R-wave features are repeating where (spacial regions) they amplify and decay. Pattern stability, is what all that means. It doesn't mean we can't still generate enough over top high across Quebec to wedge-ruin a warm 500 mb look along the way. But when those intervals don't happen, that 850 mb seems to surpass +12C with episodic +16ers spanning some 9 days...

HAHA, I was just thinking that... no kidding. I was like, 'looks like we gotta wait'll the end of October' Maybe the definition of post CC "Indian Summer" ( so un-woke and racist ) should be redefined as, 'any dramatic warm-up after already having been close to frosting'

Not that anyone asked but I’m not sure he has that right anyway. It doesn’t matter so much whether the W PAC competes against the rest of the globe … (which is what is meant by relative to the rest of the planet); it only need be enough to positively or negatively interfere with the Walker circulation … Which that has been noted by NOAA over recent years as evidenced. That is why these more typically correlative eddies are breaking down … lending to occasional wondering off between the tropical forcing and the lower Ferrel latitude westerlies orientation - particularly during winters. Why the sentence, “… Doesn’t appear to be very XYZ ENSO like” is becoming an echo

12Z GFS even spares the 'continental tuck' at D7 and keeps that cold from calving SW ... Sets us up for a few days of > normals. How much so, or if this run even verifies... unknown

Brian's clearing came SW, ... west of 495 and almost to the Pike and gaining this hour. Some overriding cirrus but we've recovered to the low 60s. Satellite trends continue to thin, anyway.

Bingo! I've been writing about synergy in the system among these climate threads for several years now ... Mostly in deference to heat waves mechanics, but this is applicable at all scales and dimensions really. It's interesting, but it's likely an arithmetic sum( synergies of smaller systems )/n-terms = might look a lot like that secondary acceleration. Synergy is tough to predict though. It's really based upon the 2ndary interactions of the result set - so is entirely emergent. Like, A, B, C, ...F, G, H all are results of the linear mechanics, but then A, or B, or C ...etc, may constructively interfere with any of those others, to produce a new result set, A', B', C' ... which may interact again ...to produce A'', B'', C'' ... and on and so on. I mean you know this... just sayn'. The synergistic maximum is when all those "imaginary" possibilities no longer actualize to then constructively interfere again.

heh... probably another hour and change longer.

It's like a really good quarterback in Football ..doesn't through the ball to where the receiver is, he/she throws the ball to where the receiver is going to be - out in space and time. We are not throwing the predictions to the right projection of where the curve is going to be - possibly because the acceleration itself is in a state of delta. +d(dCC) Something is adding - Some of that is the immediate (likely...) correction whence La Nina circulation mode ceased - think 'elasticity' ... But there's something more, because in general ... climate change -related manifestations have been routinely occurring earlier than modeling now spanning the last decade or more, During this present terms, it interesting that the warming wasn't just air, but air and sea, and everywhere, all at once. Like, the Labrador head water warmth explosion this summer...soaring to some +12 amid the Maritime of Canada was tied to the ONI ? Same with NW Pacific. The Califorina current along the west coast... The ambient planar SSTs of all oceanic basins, gaining .. etc etc.

Seems that's a week or two later than the 1900 thru 2000 climo?

Yeah, me neither. But we'll see. I'm not trying to be heavy handed, just observations of the runs versus where we are now... The extrapolation and experience, together, sort of pump the breaks. If things change, they change - That said, the D6+ Euro and GGEM were pretty coherently stopping the cold source while elevating the lower troposheric thermal medium.

you know ... this occurs to me more and more as we age further along into climate apocalypse... Does some of the autumn cooling in the hemisphere actually start under these statically stranded cloud fields like this. Weak/weakening sun by day, and the clouds steadily radiate heat away from their tops, and en masse, the air column cools as dew fallout from the bottom, and respiration/evaporation cools from the top. It's like an environmental feed back that given time, cools in the absence of a CAA event. Because 850s are like +10. With full sun, we'd be 73 probably, but we keep getting colder underneath this synoptically decoupled saturated dungeon.

I said my piece earlier. If the over-top high pressure continues to combined with that odd mid level height implosion tendency over the M/A, any warm up in the deterministic runs cannot be trusted. They'll start kicking the can. Which, it may be that said guidance' et al are breaking that large scale scaffolding too fast - 'nother way to look at it. Nope, we're well on our way to the warmest September ever with cold hands during the afternoons

It may persist in NE Mass a bit longer ... I mean you're right by sat, west of there, but there's a pretty persistent NE jet along and off the Maine coast that's moving across those weirdly warmer than normal SSTs, and it's creating OES enhanced strata field. There's always a detail to fu up a solution -

I dunno... I keep seeing these spontaneous when not delivered, 500 mb troughs into the M/A. Meanwhile, there is some kind of semi permanent DVM plumb that has set up over eastern Canada, continuously adding mass to that surface ridging up there. So long as those two circumstances persist, it is going to be hard to completely shake the easterly low level wind source along the entire eastern seaboard. Just the mean of the operational guidance ... maybe 6 that all breaks down

what side of 2015 was the warm ENSO peaking?

Prediction … we breach the 1.5+ for the first time

Unless there’s an unscheduled reversal … it’s happened twice over the last 10 years ( having never before been observed, fwiw). I think they both happened proximal to warm ENSOs

North America did not miss out and I think that’s an important distinction – regarding last December… There are no broad base Tele connections that can pinpoint a region as small as New England. The fact that the historic cyclone wrapped up and went to Buffalo, unfortunately, in the spatial physics, still counts. Sometime you get the bare … sometimes the bear gets you

How far behind climatology did last summer's 3-month negative moisture lag? I'm wondering if the combination of that, plus this summer / 2 = a moisture surplus.

We can wait a day

New NAM has clearing pressing S tomorrow. 18z has RH fields at 300, 500, 700, and 850 mb like that razor's edge look. ALB to PVD and N opens up to sunshine by then. Still overcast SW... I must admit my feel for that is not entirely unselfish. Lol. I mean, I find 0 redeeming value to 55 pitter patter rain for 72 straight hours and counting, after the Equinox when the sun is too weak to defend for itself or us... yuck ... so, forgive my insensitive and tactless rejoicing when/if that sun bursts forth tomorrow along the rt 2 corridor

I'm no Hydrologist, but 35 to 50" of rain in 90 days seems like it should have observed more flood than just these sporadic townships with washed out roads and yard ponds dumping into cellars. I wonder if the region is at a 'hydrostatic balance'? The amount of water coming into the system is evenly matched ...more than less, by the amount leaving. It's like a ton of rain just perfectly balanced right below the threshold of a regional flood concern. I'm not talking about VT's thing, or this recent event in the Leominster area - as impressive and historic as they were, they were related more so to large amounts in shorter duration. Short duration flooding is certainly augmented by preexisting wet conditions, but if the rain rate is sufficiently large it doesn't matter. Leominster and VT would have happened either way. Anyway, not trying to declare anything. This is really thinking out loud. In the end, this is like staging SNE with a primed wick for flooding, and holding it there in perpetuity - like a highly unusual static length of time. Such that we go so long without actually having a more regional flood take place. If this continues into the autumn, then we buck CC with a brick earth winter (say...), that stage might be interesting later next March

Agree ... ... may be personal preference, but I would have worded, "ie the ocean and atmosphere are not communicating" as ie, the tropical Pacific is not registering a response in the mid latitude circulation modes Yet - but we probably mean the same thing in present context lol