Typhoon Tip

Jesus Christ “AGW” is a planetary integral. UHI’s are negligible in comparative scale yeah … big cities are why there’s marine heat waves threatening to collapse the oceanic biome, why there are methane hydrate blowouts erupting through Siberian permafrost… ,state sized ice sheet calving events and measured oceanic circulation velocity shortening because of flux disruption in the thermal haline mass distribution. This may be more directed to the straw man but I grow tired of reading or hearing this from people - like the ethical scientific ambit doesn’t know the difference and must be conflating UHI effect with the whole world - got it. By the way, UHI has increased right along with CC. Just like heat waves have also increased in duration and zenith … If anything AGW is causing UHIs to grow hotter … not the other way around

Yeah right. Let’s get a PRE up here to really put this summer out of reach

It’s really bad up my way at sunset here. Sun is down to a dim orb and the surface vis isn’t more than 2 1/2 maybe 3 miles… bit of an acrid odor too

Yeah, jokes aside ...agreed the FF is still active. I think the threat is more west?

Some probability above base-line climate to emerge a heat wave d11-15

Heh... Tomorrow is a tail of failed towers - 88/68 alllllmost enough to glaciate, collapsing with five nickle -sized rain blats on the car top. Maybe some ridge topper lights up a 5 pixels, but that day really looks like a doldrum of summer day.

I was just writing about this over in the July 16 coverage - we may have an opportunity to dry out some over the next 10 days. Don't know of it's permanence ... it could be a 'relax before reload' routine. I don't see any reason why the latter would not happen. I doomed this summer ( clearly ) when I off-the-cuff wrote back in early May that this might be a +PNA summer. So yup - it's my metaphysical fault. Longer op ed, it's been unusual. There has persisted a definitive R-wave ( Rossby wave) structure that is more typically vanquished by seasonal nebularity ... by even mid June. That was so during the climate dimensions of that last several Millennia, but apparently, we've crossed unknowingly through a climate-event horizon, and in this universe ...we sustain winter pattern geometry in very high hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic heights. I actually do - jokes aside - think this may be another of these sneaky no-one-is-paying attention emergence' that is tied to CC. The heat ridge in the west is perhaps driving this look more than the Pacific is forcing. I've seen the Pacific modulate either side of neutrality these last couple of months ... yet the features spanning the downstream continent seem to remain quasi immovable, like stones in a stream. The way it "might work' (supposition), the thermal ridge is so overwhelming that is constructively interfering with the normal topographic N/A pattern forcing - which the basal structure is a flat ridge over the Rockies. The two together becomes a constructive interference (harmonic amplitude), which isn't being countermanded enough by the Pacific, so the system feeds back and it's self-perpetuating the ridge there. But over the next 10 days... the AO is more obviously switching modes ( the NAO as well), more so than previous weeks. There are other evidence that the GLAAM may be trying to switch more positive... These indices, albeit weakly, do correlate with zonal flow ...

We may have an opportunity to dry out some over the next week to 10 days. Guidance are 'relaxing' ( Euro/GGEM) the trough reloading behavior, or, stretching it more W-E (GFS). Either version eliminates the quasi stationary warm fire hose up the coast effect. However, since in either case there is still semblances of that trough along 90 .. 80W still lingering as a shear axis, that implicates shunting of bigger heat from ever getting E of ORD. It also makes the dependability of that outlook a little shaky because if/when a reload takes place ...it's sort of all set up as to where it will be. As is though ... either solution makes rain events less impacting at a regional scale. The trouble with this summer is that we are failing to relent the R-wave structure from spring - which we normally would have by now. It's a +PNAP scaffolding (west ridge east trough) that's just apparently incapable of modulation. That may be changing over these next 10 days, but with lower confidence for now.

No big deal here in N. Middlesex Co along Rt 2 ...so far. Area buckets coming in with ave 1.75 so ... more like a just maintaining what is becoming a extraordinarily wet summer. I have two suspicions ( barring a hemispheric change) 1, we may end up with a multi-month cumulative record for rainfall. 2, we may set a dew point record - not sure of any sources where that is tracked. Also, interesting that we have dim sun with enough intensity to warm the shoulders here, despite light rain still falling/rad verified. The temp is 76 and the DP is 74. I was not expecting 'brightening' really of any kind, as per satellite ( vis ) ... really didn't/doesn't make it very clear ( pun intended ...) that the sun would be penetrating.

Well ... sufficed it is to say, no chance summer 2023 will behave like summer 2022

Was thinkin the same thing but given the sat loop/trends ...it looks like this passes off and we just stay dark and dreary. Also want to add, at an unusual elevated T/TD combination for that type of setting vs region of the country. Usually you get flood with embedded weak TVS wrapped convection/QLCS along CFs with a definitive drop in both those metrics shortly after the fropa ...etc.. .but this just goes calm Bahaman mise' science under an cloud packed sky

Oops I started a thread too over the last half hr. Either way -

Unusually large bounded region spans much of eastern PA/NY and most of NE … swept over by near/at historic PWAT air mass is modeled to be in nexus with positive sheer, while modest hgt falls along with subtle yet crucial +difluence in mid levels may yet couple to an accelerating wind max AOs 300+ mb U/A up the St Law ~ lay/lon … the total manifold of all that gives an ominous cue for me. Current guidance is pushing climate thresholds for some of these concurrent metrics which strikes me as a favorable environment for ‘synergistic’ results. In short I’m inclined to believe the higher guidance … predetermining exact locations/strike axis presents certain challenges due to inherent model limitations in predictive skill wrt convective initiation and spatial distribution/interactivity For those with access to graphics by all means. I also believe this situation may warrant at least low risk for brief or even rain-wrapped TVS

Back in the ancient days of the ETA … that model was really good at next day convective initiation … it’s progeny was the NAM

The bases of these late day towering cu look lenticular ... as though they may be tending to rotate. The tops are leaning E and with a SSE flow at the surface, there's a ton of 0-6km directional shear already in place. I think tomorrow could be interesting for EFO/EF1 type low LCL tor risk, associated with higher DP cyclonic curved height/climo. I've been off all day I don't know what folks have covered - I'm just getting caught up with the synoptic stuff. By the way... Wiz' ... you should have been to the half day conference at Meditech in Canton today. DC and Fields from NWS covered the synoptic categories for our tor risk climo in New England ( since you're apparently never going to move to Oklahoma ...). The also covered the Nov 13 recent event with the EFO/EF1 swarm from SE CT to SE MA, while it was snowing in North Adams no less... pretty interesting.

Yup ... I bitched about that precise aspect this morning too - LOL. You could tell at 7am that was timed horrifically. That said... I did get an impressive t-storm here around noon. .9" in 20 min with a ton of lightning.

As expected ...DPs higher aft of that complex that rolled through earlier

Lots of thunder here and very dark as this cluster's nearly upon us... But these are short duration rumbles, indicative of short range discharges - elevated/vil work. The sky looks that way, too. Has an overrunning texture/wave form out ahead. I was just checking DPs aft of this thing and from roughly SW CT down the coast they are elevated into the mid 70s. These observations lend to this being along a quasi warm front and at minimum the nose of a theta-e ridge.

I've always carried a private qualm about that supposed 'drought'/32 year thing ... Whenever I hear/read that, I wonder ... 'yeah, what about all the TS that have swathed up through this region' I mean, they may not be hurricanes, per se - but does that matter? Perhaps it's too much philosophy for this forum ... but I don't think there's an "atmospheric distinction" between the two. There may be a statistical distinction, but first order statistics don't really describe any system ... I mean, one could sum up all the cumulative ISE from all these TS and say ... that = a smaller number of hurricanes. Boom, budget has been met. There may not be a drought really. There may be a drought in whether someone gets their drama-junky modeling drug rocks off from watching an ISE dripping bomb twirling its way across the MDR with tantalizing model implications for a L.I. express... Okay. But that's something else. Nature doesn't owe Joe Bastardi or anyone else that subscribes to the bate drama machine, jack shyster -

Looks like the morning activity rumbling out out of the Tri-state area is just perfectly wrongly timed for generating instability over SNE.... It'll snuff out the fires of daytime heating passing thru between 9:30 and 12 ... and we won't recover in time. It'll set us up for garbage at both ends. The morning stuff will start weakening due to sun -up modulation of the sounding, but still residual light rain. Then, with all the heat suppression, the storms later will die when they move back over SNE late in the day. It's interesting how much timing plays a roll in creating a situational negative feed-back. 'Course, I may be wrong about all this ... hahaha... It just looks at a glance like that complex is only going to f up an otherwise tasty look.

I dunno, try looking at Italy's own meteorologists ? https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/12/europe/italy-heat-wave-record-temperatures-climate-intl/index.html ...I mean, taken fwiw, it is CNN -sourced.

Meanwhile, Italy .. with an average latitude of 41 N ( N of NYC ...), is expecting highs of 110 to 113 in a deadly heat wave. After now 15 years of this shunting shit I begin to suspect that eastern N/A above ~ 40 N is too intrinsically protected by geologic circumstance.

Shunt summer 2023 continues. Never seen such a persistent pattern, yet doing so during a time of year when there is more typically less coherency in that regard.

80/72 at 8:40 am is implicating the day as less than ideally soothing tho sat loops has some minoring cloud bands that will (likely ) even thin some with typical morning sounding modulation ... so I'm wondering if HI's go above guidance some.

How about the ?bad station? around Key W Florida trying to put up a 97° SST. I think that you can get those temperatures around the southern stretches of the Red Sea. Don’t know about the Key West area for sure, but I know that low 90s is not that uncommon down there. Plus, there is this so-called “loop current” not too far away - it’s basically a very large gyre that rotates and pretty much gobbles up a warm column of water that extends very deep. that all sad… Temperatures are running warm anomalous anyway regardless of low 90s or not. Ya, I know this has nothing to do with sea ice but indirectly .., the AMOC is weakening and I think we’re proverbial mere moments from some scientist advancing the notion that there’s a cumulative lag around the SW Atlantic Basin. The idea being … the Gulf Stream is being orchestrated by said weakening, which means it is weakening, too. And thus (perhaps) it’s not draining the heat away from that area as effectively.