Typhoon Tip

If you're a winter storm enthusiast ... you may want to pay attention to how the 31st/3rd period modulates over future runs... Having a recurring theme in the runs ( note the 00z GGEM, too ) of a powerful diving JB jet, while still loading ( altho less, still positive) +PNA tendencies across the continental footprint ... I mean, it's just not dismissible quite yet that something would evolve. That's been occasionally hinted across all of them at one point or another, recently. Euro... Even extrapolating the ICON. This was always a 27th thru the 5th period of interest fwiw.

Yeah...I'm behind in this thread ... But, that's all I meant. something like that

this kinda reminds me of the first of those two Dec 1996

Feels like signal that there’s going to be a very early spring…

heh... here's the arriving +PNA, annotated box below I've been noticing that the models are en masse transporting the PNA configuration into that region over the continent. Bizarre ... They start manifesting the +d(PNA) well enough ( basically now...) but before it can mature they dislodge the ridge and transport it to that location and park there. Meanwhile, I don't know wtf to call that Pacific because the ridge around 140 W completely shuts down any polar or southern stream jet(s). It's all weird -

I'm not sure some of you made the right read off the Euro - just saw it. It's really not farther S than the 00z run. It's faster along the same latitude - or too close by comparison to make any difference .. not worth the bi-polar reaction ( nervy neurotics for the low haha). This run is in fact slightly deeper than the 00z run - but .. me really enough to matter there either. The only difference here that sticks out to me is the areal expanse of QPF. It's just drier - though it is not abundantly clear to me why that is the case. So be it... That's suspicious. I don't think this run "caved" to jack shit really considering these aspects are so unchanged. The QPF not being as distributed is debatable as even real. This run over all has really bad continuity so ... it's not abundantly clear this run should be used just because its bad and appeals some weird abandonment issues.

I love a good conspiracy like the next guy heh... but I mentioned that sentiment a couple years ago myself, but at the time it was an eye-brow raise based upon what I read; they are in the process of a core changes in the way the model is processed - AI/ and even QM hm... It would be more like they're giving us a beta version they know full well isn't as good but is still competitive, as a calculated trajectory. Then they release some kinda quantum computing extra double top secret version which is truly supreme ... for supreme cost. Who's with me! hahaha

Heads down at work today but on lunch the GFS looked N of prior run cycle ...which I guess that was 06z

Other way around ... the GFS, in fact ... all global models tend to over amplitude in the mid and extended range, and as the features get nearer upon future cycles, they correct downward.

That has been a noted/repeating theme spanning many seasons. 2015 hits that successfully, but that appears to be an outlier when objectively considering the numbers, and overall impression, created by the last 20 years. Variances of increasing range at both intra-monthly and even intra-weekly in time scales, has been increasingly characterizing seasons. Regardless of all leading indicators - in other words ... regardless of whether those correlate hot, cold, wet or dry, those haven't mattered. That trend alone, logic says 'don't be as reliant.' Which is the flip side of the same argument, 'how can one rely on correlations (the way previous generations could) when they are based upon a D(climate)/DT ( for assist that means "change of climate" divided by "change in time"). That makes the previous climate less relevant. I guess there's art in how much so - Anyway, I'm saying all this because right now the 'leading indicators' would suggest we perform better winter in February. So... ( using this word twice in a hour) with the leitmotif of excessive changeability, whatever is causing that ( we all know what the f that is -) ... and for that matter... the El Nino is weakened while the PDO continues. I could see this Feb having another one of those seemingly out-of-place balm weeks.

06z Euro may verify, it may not ... But the GFS is still exhibiting transitive influence from a more aggressive arctic/polar branch of the westerlies diving SE through the Maritime region NE of Maine. The previous Euro runs have that jet at less mechanical strength, also positioned crucially some 200 mi NE with the axis. Those differences appear to be almost entirely why the Euro gets it closer on the 00z run; also the storm benefits by moving into an opened up larger development space within which to deepen. The GFS circumstance does not provide as favorable an arena. Basically ... the storm reels to confluence as it nears. It encounters a small development space and the 'transitive' aspect is the shunting S. You have to set both runs side by side at hour 102 or so, and toggle back and forth until your eyes see it - it's very subtle but this thing is medium intensity as the trough wobbles across the continent and then it either runs into a backward exertion wall (GFS). Or, it opens up into a more favorable region of cyclogenesis (Euro) - by circumstance somewhat N. Flip a coin. It's reminding me of that RGEM coup storm a little. Leitmotif this winter is that any snow at all has to be a tedious dental procedure to get the models to admit it. Maybe this time they'll finally be right and we miss... Hey, the thread was capped at mid confidence for a reason. And we did intimate this event could fail, too. But we'll see

Bad idea

Jokes aside … folks should be prepared for the possibility of a heat burst in February.

yeah...and so it goes, let's blow the roof off the top of the charts now struggling to quantize how the physics in the models are eating a steady diet of climate change heat fluxes ... lol I doubt this happens but it sure is cool looking. I like how the atmosphere strikes oil over San Diego

First for me... Never before seen 582 dm heights over WV latitude during the first week of February

That sort of look evolved last month I recall... We were gawking at the blocking indicated - and equally as astonished when it sort of failed to produce. Although we did get the 10-14"er out of that period ...even tough it was pullin' teeth to get the models to admit it was happening until the RGEM schooled the Euro ( zoink)

I know - it's like every index is negative and positive at the same time.

The CFS "toy" model has a very cold look with cyclic S/stream injects through early to mid February.

Lol, the MJO desk is currently suggesting warmer than normal spreading over central and eastern U.S. during early February ... with a potential river event into the west coast. SO basically a -PNA on steroids. That's the correlation of the MJO - they're not predicting that. I'm curious to see how that evolves because the telecon projections suggest differently for N/A

The MJO doesn't force patterns. It offers a constructive interference factorization - which also by that convention goes the other way. But the planetary wave signal is vastly dominant. I've seen respective MJO wave ...even robust ones, not demo/fail correlation on the pattern over N/A often enough. MJO writers down in NCEP often refer to it as either in constructive or destructive interference with x-y-z aspects going on during the forecast periods in question. just sayn'

Haha wondered if anyone else saw that NJ model critter hardly two days later. That would be another 10" for you to PVD to Scott axis while Kevin ....oh so barely misses it with 2" lol

It really is charmed change in the cold air handling. I mean ... prior runs were bullying in a wholesale arctic plunging Ontario jet, which was causing confluence to become overwhelming and suppressing what was already an uninspired wave space/cyclone. Now, not only is the wave space/cyclone stronger, but that fisting N/stream has backed way off, but still there is enough with confluence to supply a fresh cold air source to mix into the top of the circulation. These 12z runs really on whole/blend or whatever, is really the epitome of what enthusiasts would be hoping as a turn around. And the trend may not be done. Said wave space/mechanics are just now nosing onboard in the NW. I mean if that comes in more powerful, and the PNA ridge continues it's correction taller... what does that mean.

yeah... I mean, the impetus there is that we're still sort of shuffling shit around in the guidance. If it were to get instrumental, it would have to be sped up enough to begin interacting with that S/stream a lot sooner ... like by Chicago or don't. That's for starts. There, it's not really interacting with the S/W space, it's acting like a kicker. That feature was there on prior runs ... but now that our system in question is what it is, the former's influence on it becomes more noticeable. I'm also noticing less N/stream arctic jet intrusion as prior runs. That's also helping. We've been dealt two blessings so far on this run. Less of the N/stream obtruding and pushing everything out, which then allows a stronger embedded mechanical system to have fun. I'm just saying that if we could tone it down with that follow up useless piece of shit party crasher, that would also help.

No... that's no where near as bad as a 32.3 F cat paw bomb Total accumulation 0 . 0 0 in white rain

In case anyone's interested in some analytics instead of just rollin' eyes back in head as the drug plunges into vein ... but.. .this shortwave below is probably what starts the 'shunting' east in the Euro and stems the translation into SNE of that NE Pa snow bomb...