Typhoon Tip

come to think of it...are there flag advisories

I can too - this is fake warmth. The DPs are a balmy 12 F ...some 20, but between that range. Saturate this column and we'd be cat pawing

31 deg temperature rise already ... this may be the diurnal delta prize winner day. 29 was the low currently 60 at 11 am.

NAM profiles ( 12z ) would support mid 80s if no sun obstruction... There may be some issues with mid deck cloud debris looking at the typical ceiling level RHs. MET's 80 now at BDL and ASH.

That sun is a rotisserie lamp out there.

Uhh maybe … let’s not forget the world we live in. Don’t be fooled by a persistent pattern. When this cold bias (relative to said world) leaves things can turn around really fast. Happens a lot when it’s warm in the fall people start going uh oh. “I have a feeling this winter’s are gonna be more back loaded.” Sometimes even sounding official like I’m looking at some indicators…

Heh... short lived! If the NAM is right that is... tomorrow has that late summer sun annihilating the chilly air mass written all over it. Could see that being upper 50s with wind going light under late summer intensity sun ... about a 10 out of 10 on the naper scale. Temps don't fall off tomorrow night much ... at least toward the coast. I suspect we'll still see some decoupling in the interrior and some over achieving frost, but Friday is featuring nearly identical profiles to what just occurred here on Monday, whence T drove above machine and ended up 68 to 72 throughout the area. Saturday may touch 80. Even the NAM's 2-meters are 75+ and it's really, really difficult to get this particular model that warm at this time of year - have they even flipped the seasonal switch on that tool? Chris ( Maine's office ) once told me that the NAM does have seasonal dependent algorithms. Brian might know...whatever... this cold is mainly today and tonight.

Is that what your wife calls them ? haha

yeah, other guidance have been hinting at slowing the pattern, too That ridge has been burgeoning at small increments across subsequent runs - ensemble means, too. If anything the surface front looks too far S-E for the mid levels at this point. We'll see

yeah... reminds me. I'm not a big fan of the stein meme stuff and tend to roll-eyes or just scroll very quickly past so that I don't have to even expend the energy rolling eyes I hate it so much. I just find it to be 'manufacturing outrage," a behavior common to the social media - indirectly related to the social mechanics in how/why society as a whole found itself in a state of "making America great again". Stimulation junkies. That's what the pack population density is now. Knee jerk judgements for recreational outrage... basically, a melt down at civility ( hopefully not leading inexorably to "biblical") scales. Fear takes over. People contract. Progressive ideologies only contributes ... Populism results. That makes them prone to fascism, because a fascinating failing of human beings is, when they are afraid ...the want daddy and the hierarchical social command structure to protect them - geee...wonder where that psychology is born from. It's just another peregrination of history we are going through, and it's been repeating itself going all the way back to the Napoleonic wars. But I'm digressing. When aspiring events are at a premium, boredom leads to lust for something, anything dystopia ... and so drought becomes to the angst. But, our reality is usually just when reality seems it may get out of control ...it doesn't. That's what it's like here in this region of the continent. When it comes to drought's contribution to the plausible hysterical entertainment quota, some weird MCS (say) rots some night and dents it below the true omg threshold. It's like the unattainable 40" snow pack in the 495 belt of down here in SNE. We've been close ...but something always happens to limit it from going above that. GOAT years tend to hol' up about 36 give or take. "Droughts" here tend to be intraseasonal, not surviving past the ensuing shoulder season, anyway. Usually ... This year mmm. I find it a little more intriguing because we were below climo input into the system this winter by a significant margin, yet, are now failing to "catch up" ( so far ) this spring. I don't think it's an issue until the bigger reservoirs basins start showing ringed islands while stream flows are down to water gnats bouncing off feted fish corpse' ... But if we get a WNW summer ( warmer than normal chinookian flow with lowish DPs) after this recent 8 months, we'll see if that environmental state is approached.

mm I kinda see where Scott's coming from with the sense that we're breaking out of winter's stretching tentacles - seems to be this is the week this year is choosing to do so. I remember remarking last week that these charts in this period were repositioning the 540 dm thickness N of the border after this mid week period ...still the case. Take today ... it's snowing on the roof line way up there, granted, but this is sub-540 dm thickness yet we're not in the 30s like we would have been just a week ago, instead ... holding in the mid 40s. That subtle distinction of "failing" the cold relative to synoptic metrics is really more spring like than winter to me -fwiw We'll see how tonight's lows go. It's possible we stay above freezing but if we decouple and make the upper 20s (S of CNE ) it may be the last time we see those readings

Tomorrow

wasn't expecting this sky improvement. It's now jumped into the mid 60s, and vis imagery/loops opened up regions N of the Pike for what appears to be a couple few hours of decent heating.

I'm okay - ish -with it because Friday and Saturday have been getting better and better. If we are chopping it up between the two, that's better than always not. Seems like we were getting closer to the latter but this week's breaking the mold.

Yeah, I get it - I was just adding my first hand accounting to/for the consideration... UHI is intense in that region. That much I am in direct observation. But, that also doesn't preclude the possibility of instrumentation, too. Both could certainly be true -

heh... you may be right, buuut ... you know, my sister lives in S. Jersey. When I've visited there, I know first hand from our trips over the bridge that that city sprawl is truly immense, concrete and iron for miles in every direction. ...Summer solar glaring away... I'd be willing to at least test the notion that the UHI is particularly enhanced around that region of the megalopolis. Same sort of effect up around EWR's industrial complex, downtown and straddling the highway ... The AP is right there -that fuggin region is like an iron cauldron over a witch's torch.

It's funny Brian because at like 7:30 I was looking at the vis loop and thought, shit ... cloudy by 11. Fuck if April doesn't steal another - the only way we would end up being more sun than clouds is if NY and NE PA were to somehow evaporate magically. I just looked and "magically" those regions are just mare's tails now - or appear to be so. Buys us an extra 3 or so hours of at least partial sun. 56 ... 25 recovery since 7am ...not bad. Today is a contender for biggest diurnal of the year I suspect. We have a hUUUge solar loading now that we are late summer sun intensity, with just the right amount minoring mixing down slope, with 850s to +6 or so... etc etc... we were 31 here in the Nashoba Valley. It's going to be interesting to see this take off.

yeah, Scott, you can really sense the changes in the pattern foot ... right around 90 hours. The behavior in the loops in all sources appears to change seasons - Euro is alternating between fronts to mild, if not warmth, with limited or no BN on the scour sides right out to the end of the run. The GFS as usual is trying to sell winter until July - it fights seasonal change as a model bias every spring since the rapid new version era started around 2015. Not sure why so but it's clearly always the colder solution at this time of year, ever since. Despite this, even it has 540 dm thickness now safely N of the CAN/U.S. border latitudes. Just this one annoying cold shot here Wed ..but Friday may late high and than it's "soar Saturday"

with invisible CBs ? haha

Yeah.. too far out to be dependable - as we well know ... But damn delicious eye candy as a spring/warm enthusiasts. Kind of like seeing a D10, 959 histrionic bomb on the eastern tip of LI, with Kuchera layin down no shame 50s. It's like "Gone With The Wind" in one hand, "Tropical Titty charts" in the other - no clue what is the best cinema in history.

Were you alive in May 2005 ?

Tomorrow should be pretty damn balmy... at least in metro west of Boston up through S NH and down the 84 corridor into the HFD zones. Cool/cold (whatever adjective one needs to use ...) air mass mid week... then, the there are wholesale changes over our side of the hemisphere.. particularly 20th+. And as I've been pointing out, they are both definitively different, but also milder by implication. So, we may be a week away from the end of "taking sweet time" era. We'll see... I don't wanna be skewered because it's still April, and April's strap one on even in the best of years... but that's just the way it all's leaning at this time.

Re the pattern going forward: As I outlined yesterday ... 'even if the ridge doesn't prevail, the pattern foot is milder' that seems to be the case as of this morning. The overnight runs removed the cherry on top with the warm dome that some of them were teasing, but... the principle aspect of having the 540 dm thickness contour retreated to 55 N still is intact. These are like +2 to +7 850 mb days with nights above freezing ... probably low 40s to upper 60s as the mean. The cherry on top could certainly also materialize/show up in future guidance, too. We just need to get on the other side of the 20th

I dunno .. I get that this is a social media ... " loosely" weather related ... and that it's free speech - and that's good! In an era of leaning fascism ( unthinkable in 2025 that is the case...), the bastions of unencumbered speak-easy's definitely need to prevail. But, that also doesn't lend to the most rational contribution, either, not coming from Americana. LOL Imho, there will always be someone that likes what the consensus does not, but just from my many decades of suffering along side humanity I feel above 90% confident that any consensus would return that the weather the last two days has been a rim to rim shit show April weekend. Not much else needs to be elaborated or mutated from that distinction. Attempting to gaslight people into feeling this was a better weekend than it was? okay... Not sure what the motivation in the discussion is honestly... Personally, I've gaslit myself into thinking this weekend is "tolerable", because of this: 36000433131 -3511 062308 54150803 Those are 8 pm tomorrow later afternoon numerical profiles numbers off the NAM. They've been as such pretty much for the last day and a half of cycles. What the '3131' bold means, those are the RH at the 700 and 500 mb levels. < 50% is clear by definition. Now...this does not account above 500 mb, where cirrus blankets roam ... but I checked those levels at Pivotal and the they are not 70% or above, indicating that sun will be penetrating. What the '2308' bold means, those are wind direction and speed. 23 ==> 230 degrees .. which is WSW, at 08 is 8 kts. So ... very light breezes from a warm wind direction under afternoon sun so far. What the '150803' bold means, those are temperatures in the vertical profile. So, +15C at 980 mb ( mid way up the Prudential Tower altitude), and then +8 at 900 mb and +3 at 800 mb respectively. This requires understanding how to read a blank skew-t log -p diagram which I'm not taking an audience that has even read this far through that education .. .but, given the light wind and ample sun, and +6 or +7 estimated mixing temperature, that's probably about 21 or 22C down on the streets. 22C = ~ 71 If we can verify that ... it sucks it's on a Monday, but clock out at 2:30 if you can for a sanity hour and it's at least a reach-around gesture by an otherwise demonic month

And by the way ...I had a pretty good girder buzzer thunder rumble in the 2-3 hour period. It woke me up and I looked out the window at very low visibility. Short and sweet though.