Typhoon Tip

mm... Last time the ENSO mode began to shift into a similar range as that which is forecast now ... the entire planet surged a clad degree C, unilaterally, everywhere, air, sea and air-sea. The whole planet That should have really sent more shutters than it did through every inhabitant of this World. Probably, the shear scale of that in March of 2023 was so immense it simply escapes the common ability to dimensionalize the implications, thus crickets... Either way, whether this species cares to care, can, or won't aside, mathematically that maens there is large climate uncertainty, one that unfurled right before our eyes... one that could do so again. And the changes now as we see switch into a warmer mode of ENSO ... I think it behooves everyone, everywhere, to consider that even RONI may not be sufficient as an approach. Raising an entire planetary system by a full deg C is so vastly beyond a single ENSO mode's typical correlation, it forces the conclusion that ENSO's relevancy is increasingly subsumed

This looks like a pretty typical ANA blizzard at 3,000 feet

Doesn't appear much of that impressive rad display over eastern PA to eastern NY is actually reaching the ground?

Right smack in the middle of Ineedarealitycheck's expectation for winter's return... 'nough said. heh... yeah it's D11 so ... zip confidence. Altho, it's fair enough to say that there is an emerging warm signal beyond the 20th in the indices. My personal feel on things is that winter is over. We may get a 'spring snow' at some point, but I don't see that happening for the next 10 days, and beyond that... I get increasingly more soured by the implications of CC more and more every passing year. When combining that with post equinoxian solar irradiance ... doesn't send my sixth sense into any cold feel

OH pleezy weezy with sugar on top make this happen

it seemed to stop as the back edge of the mids finished exit... via cinema. As the loop had pass over, it ate back NE a little It's really open sky sun here with light winds. On March 11, it's cheating and making the 46 ... actually, just bounced to 48 seem like a pretty good bargain for the time of year

Yeah, it's 46 here with nearly full sun this hour even up here in the deeper cool air; water is again running out of the pack's lining the roads so melt continues.

I'll tell ya ...having the sun now winning over the diminishing cloud coverage is helping to offset that rude intrusion of colder air. Ironically, it cloudier where the cold is deeper up N, and shittier sky where it's SW of this boundary. Weird to have it clear where the boundary itself, is It's 45 here... not "nice" per se, but relative to what it could be on March 10 that is nice. Not ungrateful. Plus, the wind behind this boundary isn't appreciably gusting and so forth, so there's some nape quality remaining. It does seem that the momentum of the front is slowed.

I remember that as the cold that was gripping the continent E of 110 W wrapped up into that whole trough and exited along with it. Cold was over and the storms were done. If that's what it takes, ...let's do it !

There is nothing false in intimating that the risk for wintry event, next week, "shit the bed" in the models. That's essentially true. It may be fair to say that an event could return in modeling? However, there are other indicators suggesting that those odds are pretty long. It's just that there are those that don't like the circumstance at hand, much less when someone iron pans the reality. They read it, ... they react. Usually by picking apart specific word choice to tailor a some way to make it wrong. Heh. okay

I saw that.. .interesting high based towers

Not in this conversation but ... I sense that depending on March as a wintry month has gradually lessening support in reality -

actually initializing elevated convection over the top of this newly arrived dome too - y'all may even get wet in mid NH

It's semantics, sure ... but I just thought it was interesting. I cracked that open this morning, thinking I'd see a BD yet that's a synoptic normal front. whatever, the flow is NE and rudely steeling yesterday's joy; no one outside this social media is either aware nor gives a shit about the differences. agreed -

Technically not a back door front. Not according to WPC's last analysis. It 'sa front coming down steeply from the N but it's not back dooring this is more synoptically driven than a meso-beta scaled BD effect. Also, with that high building ESE toward the Maritime the way it is modeled to do so means that there is no way to 'retreat' or really even mix out that mass prior to main frontal sweep early tomorrow. Case closed. enjoy you're dog shit New England curse.

Yeah, like tomorrow lol It may be delayed and/or mitigated a little in WOR or SW CT but my experience (and climo of model error for that matter) if there is a BD within reach, it typically really end up in Atlanta GA's asshole

well... not to troll this any more than it is trolling itself ...zomb but, this is a heat burst guys. Busting climo by almost 30 on the high ?! It's also akin to another ( yet ...) in the growing #'s of this sort of thing that have been taking place since the 2000's. Feb-Apr is low DP high kinetic air risk now more than ever, as these occurrence prove so in the "hot" numbers and +frequency.

Sorry to keep harping this but I'm astounded by 70+ air blowing across fields packed over by snow what the holy f is going on

Wait a sec ... didn't we have 12 to 18" of pan-dimensional snow pack on 12/22/2020, and then zero by the next morning ? That was faster than this. This has taken 3 days and I still have snow 3 or 4" deep Granted, with 75 air wafting over

haha... f you no but seriously I did read a paper recently ( Phys.org ) where CC- attribution is causing: bigger temp swings. more frequent severe cold snaps, where the bottoms of the cold are slowly elevating. They pointed out this latter aspect, too - which I found interesting. heat waves are becoming more frequent in the summers, lasting on average a day longer, and maxing out higher. As far as the lows versus high, I'm not sure of any science discipline to back this up so don't shoot me but I thought low temperatures over eastern N/A were where the ballast of our elevating means were coming from? check that -

Inneedsnow knew and tried to warm us

74 or 75 at every home site on Wunder within 5 miles of mi casa fwiw That's with snow on the ground. This is also the greatest temperature and still snow pack combination I've ever seen at this elevation.