Typhoon Tip

i'd even settle for just getting cold boundary layers - that's really the barest necessity. highs ideally placed is obviously optimal but failing that, a cold residual air mass with a low running by underneath can get the job done. i mean, we haven't really had much success even 'threading the needle' s either.

there was discussion like this back before the 1989 event if memory serves.

the icon has a bit of a stinger look early sat ... i'll go ahead a this post but, i'm not really sure that potential should be ignored. there's a tendency to start conserving more deep layer mechanics with this closing system, nuanced in recent guidance - there's always a bit of variability headaches with these. the icon's trying to say light to moderate cold rain a 534 dm thickness at 12z saturday at the sw arc of a wrapped ccb, around that new deepening... i find that to be warm biased in ptype given that totality

you're gonna need another vomit emoji -

commented about this the other day too - watch that new deepening low passing e of bos friday night. it's not part of the nyc cyclone but is a new committed development. there's signs that western arc could 'fill in' - perhaps assisted by the instability of those tanked mid level colder heights like you're saying. yup

probably a day ... day and half to thread

yeah... not to be a dink, but ..when a i wrote about the double potential (~28th then again ~2nd) earlier, i mentioned the 06z had stepped back ... but that i was fairly confident, based up recent model performance for that 10 day period out there, that it would return. that feature is showing up strongly in the eps - albeit on the 00z run it was more of an eastern lakes cutter with perhaps torpid commitment to secondary - but enough to sense there's some residual bl cold/resistance forcing that to happen. however, the euro operational was nix on the 28ther and selling the latter 2nd much harder on the 00z run cycle. it'll be interesting to see if the euro starts to reverse those - or perhaps carries both ... on the 12z run.

that's why i put the drought term in quotes in that snarkism - i wasn't gonna get into survey gunk

ah,... it's (somewhat suppositional ) but I don't see the fl straight as much of a mystery ...yet the aspect to me, which is rather intuitive ... is geometric bottle-necking. a lot of mass has to move through a small region down there. the 80% still active amoc is still a huge mass quantity compared to what can geophysically squeeze through that region near florida. if the ~20% lowering of the total basin amoc exchange machinery is still above the critical mass continuity thresholds, then it's simply a matter of there still being enough mechanism in place to continue draw the sw atl basin waters out of that region - where mass-continuity keeps velocity/mass transport sufficiently high. most likely, it's gradual ... not yet begun. fl straight starts to decline more gradually across a range of total basin amoc weakening, but doesn't likely begin registering change until the total basin weakening crosses some critical value, but it is > than the present 20% in this idea.

unfortunately ... y'all are gonna have to shut down the d-drip over this "drought" and fire hysteria. you'll get a chance to enjoy getting event stoned soon enough ... but .8 to 1.6 basin coverage is plenty to significantly enough retard fuels in the combustion triad, and that's going to ruin your high. lol as far as what happens after, this is an entirely new pattern ensuing. there are multiple potentials for maintenance/ sub index scaled events that were not there during the dry recency.

there's really two opportunities for cold system complexion within this ensuing pattern. the first being ~27/28th, the next being ~2nd conflicting signals... eps mean/pna index coverage is a better fit for the operational gfs, which likes the ~27-29 period. 06z version may have strayed but it'll be back if recent behavior is any guide the operational euro's been pushing robust/new +pna rise, after the system this weekend - much more so than it's ens mean. it first lowers the index to neutral-neg for couple of days, then a rather impressive rise take place. it's placing an important event during this latter index burst ... around dec 2nd. in a vacuum that isn't altogether unsound. so it's nadir in between is destructively interfering with the 27-29er so it squashes that out. the operational gfs on the other hand, has a more modest rise back to just neutral heading into the first week of dec. this allows the the 27-29 period more coherency ... and because it is less + into the first week of dec ... it's not really jiving with the euro out there.

Fire Weathers got about two days to work it out and then it’s over Buh-bye

yeah ... i'm right along with y'all for ...guarded optimism during these next 2 to 3 weeks, but not touching post dec 10 i realize the very extended gfs ens and/or the eu weeklies this that and the other ( i don't presently know) but once we get toward week 4 those don't really strike me as being very dependable just anecdotally. plus, experience. experience for me is that favorable patterns prior to dec 15 seldom last and in fact, ... i've seen deep snow packs on the 10th go down to mud by xmas eve more times than i care to remember. so ... short version, i agree. now, there are a handful of years that got cold and snowy and stayed that way until after the holidays - i haven't actually compared those to the charlie browns. it could all really be proven noise per empirical data, but i lean toward the 'not lasting' side. especially in 2024's state of the world, that would be the wiser course

still liking that period after this weekend's ordeal. that's been a smattering of sub-teleconnector-scaled systems through dec 3 or 4 out there in the extended guidance since i mentioned the above a couple days ago. any one of which could bring a quickie. of those, the 26th/27th/28th seems to have the greater recurrence in the runs. i'm not predicting that per se, but the gfs' 06z flat fast mover fits the pattern. what we're heading into is a -epo cold loading into a low frequency +pna... that means the flow isn't really going to tip trough west, ridge east, as the initial -epo response ... blah blah blah ... the trough ends up a bit down stream off the -epo. such that you get a compressed faster flow field where the cold heights and thicknesses compress against the se ridge.

... in which case, ray and scott would actually trophy this whole ordeal and the rest of use would be left out. fascinating

the problem with this system - all along in guidance ... - is that it is arriving over an amorphous low level troposphere. there's no real fronts or thermodynamic gradients between se ontario and nj/sne. that's why the surface low response is sort of instantly stacking under the low, as opposed to developing se and then capturing later. what's interesting though is the hints of new deepening in late innings. the 06z is now biting on that idea more coherently, precariously close to bringing a sub 980 mb new deepening e of the region - close to being a short duration burst of isallobaric wind ...wind rushing in upon exit... moreover, a small non-zero chance that it would clip and bring a burst of - by then - wet snow or mix contention while doing so... so there is bit of enhanced uncertainty relative to this time range

lol scott and ray with a clearly objective response to the intents and purposes of the cosmic dildo. priceless ...

solid early season climo threat here ...

that looks like ray was leaf burnin and it got away from him

there's a kind of anecdotal correlation for rather big events in the first 10 days of decs actually. more of those than there are great decs

https://phys.org/news/2024-11-meltwater-greenland-arctic-weakening-ocean.html i find this fascinating, "...and about 20% weaker since the middle of the 20th century..." that's really an astonishingly fast rate in geologic terms. you know, with all these gitty-up observations, surpassing original conjecture, hypothesis, theory and model projections, ... it gets more suspicious to me that the main proponent in setting the time range for these changes as far out as they ever were, was really just the shear specter of a planet changing - it was/is just too big to get heads wrapped around it. thus, giving more time becomes something like a comfort instinct. ...just psychology getting in the way of sounder reasoning, perhaps -

actually, that's rarer in the early chapters of pattern changing in "winter" ... we got the early feb oddity of -9f type 'continental tuck' last year,' but it's pulling out within 24 hours is a red flag for its equally unusual way in having that happen the way it did. more typically, the -epo cold load begins west, then ... spreads east. this chart above proooobably doesn't verify as is, from this range lol. right. but it does show a rather text book -epo dump, loading through the mt/dakotas route, and then compressing a thickness gradient through the ov. what we want after is the +pna to resurge...then, we have the cold in place for the h.a. recovery storm.

not much dependency on one another if that's what you're getting at? dry doesn't beget dry in the colder climate months like it does in summer it's possible to be antecedent dry over an extended length of time, ...pattern change --> 30" of snow, and summarily go back to dry...

impressive arctic outbreak in the ext 12z gfs

this is quite impressive ... https://phys.org/news/2024-11-scientists-plastics-soaps-detergents.html ...what irks me is that this is the 3rd or 4th article like this that i have come across spanning he last 10 years, and they seem to all have faded into oblivion. you never hear/read of it again. it's easy to get into paranoia and conspiracy theories involving big oil's nodal agencies but ... i in reality, humanity just doesn't enough appreciate, respect if even are aware ... what direction the real existential threats are coming from. this plastic thing is one of them. the climate is the other. either of these two WILL cross the thresholds of the irrecoverable, creating a new paradigm of environmental/ecological reality, one that probably does not include human beings - countless other species for that matter ... we're in in a fucking mass extinction event and this is empirically observable! yet, all these years of din and rage of humanity's ongoing travails ...? means nothing. it's like standing on a railroad track while the climate of the future is makes the iron vibrate under foot, yet arguing over the color shoes being warn to the engagement. it's all irrelevant when your dead. one of the greatest nature disasters ever to befall this world may in fact turn out to be the innovation of mankind.