Typhoon Tip

ping pong balls of objective reality off the brick of denialism

I’m talking about wholesale local hemisphere

No in between in this case. Either the GFS is onto something, or, NCEPs got some splainin’ to do

I don’t think the reduction of sulfites factored. The restriction set in after that happened

Kinda interesting. Not sure if there's any actual predictive usefulness to this philosophy outlined below, but could we be setting up 2026 as another ...holy shit, didn't see that comin' global leap in temperature? This is the current winter escape curve in the southern hemisphere ( provided by https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=sh ). It's presently the warmest October on record down there? That's equivalent to late April up here. So then heading through their "April" and "May" ...when solar really is accelerating ... where is this curve destined? (dark rust) Intuitively/simple additive thinking might be setting up a high launch pad for the world, whence the N. Hem. spring of 2026 starts dumping in its typically warm quota ( due to having greater land integral).. The ongoing tendency that our immediately ensuing winter will end up above normal overall (not compensating in the averaging) notwithstanding. Just some wondering here -

echoing the general sentiment... but, TC entanglement was never likely. It was in fact unlikely (... but even a long shot can give the addicts a dopamine pop. Ha ha). The emerging consensus explains why that is. No issues with letting that go. With that said, there is still a signal for an EC impact/ Nor'easter, regardless of those noisy GGEM solutions. Mainly upper M/A and NE this go. In fact, the GGEM got hugely distracted somehow and ventured off from ... every form of modelling technology I can find last night and isn't used. Wildly divorced from consensus. Meanwhile, the GFS and Euro being well below 980 mb under deep forcing kinematics, fits both ens means, and the numerical telecon deltas. Circumstantially, whilst there's lingering +PP hanging over N of Maine like that. Heh, bit of a high surf/coastal flood enthusiasts 'wet' dream (see what I did there) Also, a lot of rain over terrain enhancing along the inevitable CCB axis. Kind of a 'scary' setting for Halloween

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-overshooting-15c-climate-inevitable-chief.html

12z GEFs continues the trend to increase anomaly settling into the M/A ... Here's the 180 hour regardless of whether there's a fusion of TC or TC guts into this scenario ...that's an important coastal signal on its own.

seriously tho...that GGEM solution is exactly what we were discussing early about the hybrid and/or fusion scenario being possible given that ..compendium of indicators. See? all you have to do when in ennui is bitch and complain about it -

I beat y'all to that ha

This is precariously close to a capture in this 12z GGEM solution ( D7 ).... an overall structural improving suggestion comparing the 00z run from last night.

can you imagine Narragansett Bay .... ho man

I don't think you did... I mean, there's a non-zero chance that thing gets sucked into ...whatever the Euro's selling with that -NAO trough. This becomes a general Met concern Which, by the way folks ... -NAOs, particularly those over the western limb of the domain, which this 10 day period is exerting, is a correlation found with TCs ( in general ..) affecting the EC. I'm not fully convinced that some sort of hybrid or fusion deal can't evolve. Low probability, but it's not outside the envelope, either It's numerically/telecon Sandy like in some ways... but not exactly modeled as an analog in the synoptic handling at this time. As far as the upper tier category stuff... my intuition's telling me pump the breaks on that with the hostility in the region, and the fact that a trough pulling it out of the CAG region may induce that motion prior to the TC availing of superior deep layer circulation mode. The GFS has a fuller integrated TC and that's why it's initiating that escape so fast. The Euro apparently keeps it less coupled to the mid and u/a, so it drifts west and then gets a chancy window to RI ... I put that lower probability. But, I don't give a ratz ass about being wrong, either. ha Just the way I see.

heh too much shear. Doesn't matter where it is. NHC indicated a 'few days' of it. maybe we wait -

Meh... we'll see. Shear stress has to diminish, tho. If it doesn't, I 100% disagree.

Apparently you're not putting much value in NHC's recommendations this morning? ...it's okay. With all the MAGAt parasites succeeding in tunneling out American institutions, there's probably just a skeleton crew of stressed out coffee constipated red-eyed summary efforts coming from NHC lately ... But, suppose for a minute there's substantive value when they tell us that moderate westerly shear will impact the TC for the next few days. That would be inconsistent with your bold comment above. Just sayn'

Don't call it 'hyperbolic' then, call it 'childish and drama jerking' ...meh, semantics -

October is 2nd only to April for mornings like this... 49 F slate gray dead calm and wet. Zero redeeming value ... And 2nd place means sometimes it's actually in first.

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-super-arctic-climate-weather-extremes.html

Here's what I was more than less describing to Scott awhile ago ...this is the 12z GEFs mean for D9ish. This is a rather deep upper M/A 500 mb anomaly for D9 and it's trending. It's getting hard to imagine this failing to detonate a coastal response This is only October 20s ... if we continue with the type of loading pattern toward mid Novie, the idea of the front heavy winter is showing up in guidance - in fact, you can argue that is the case already ... but we're just seasonally too warm inside a winter scaffold/hemisphere. That's a modest +PNA/-NAO(western limb) tandem

i know, and related to that, I find the inflation idea of our universe' supposed first eras of existence as eerily similar to the 'next is larger' ... like, hmm... just maybe the inflation they're theorizing is actually that size recreation taking place - wild idea perhaps

That's precisely ... I tacitly embedded that idea with 'death as necessity' Life gets passed the 2nd law by reproducing, where the offspring are - it is hoped, but succeeds more than 50% of the time - at least as good a copy as the progenitor. And, because mitosis ( by the way...) via gamete union has a natural ability to factor out imperfections, there's a chance the copies are improvements.

500 mb means from all three are vestigial with +anomalies over eastern Canada/D Straight extending out to the temporal horizon ... meanwhile, the CPC numerical telecon ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png ) is pretty depressed with the index. I'm sorta curious if we see some 'emergence' in the guidance ...where there's some non-linear forcing that they don't respond to until closer in time. And then you get more digging into the M/A. I noticed that is actually tending to happen in the ensemble means for the D8-11 range, with a coastal signal in there time range. Whether or not there's a TC involved in all that is just adding some d-drip value... It's not winter yet but hang in there my fellow addicts ... there's can be interesting aspects to pay attention to. haha

just the NAM so tfwiw but these grid numbers over Logan imply/look modestly impressive for a convection swath tomorrow afternoon...probably E 30020663908 -2599 032218 49170901

cut off d-drip and withdraw syndrome kickin in