Windspeed
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Everything posted by Windspeed
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Eh excuse me, sir, you were thinking the same thing I was. Everything is good.
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Right, but the person was asking why it wasn't showing up on the "main" models. That range is of course ensemble territory. It's all good WX-Double-O-7.
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Gurus trying figure out the pattern for peak into late September.
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Every season we watch these TC influenced amplifications occur. They can cause big shifts in mid-to-long range modeling for our portion of the northern hemisphere. When strong typhoons enter into the polar jet at just the right motion and angle it can really buckle and amplify wave patterns downstream. Generally adiabatic cooling of moist equatorial airmasses can release some potent kinetic energy, increasing flow rates and strong waves within the jet stream that may lead to strong amplified trough versus ridge patterns across North America and the N. Atlantic. Likewise, intense Atlantic hurricanes do the same for Europe and N. Asia. We can already see hints of a such a setup in the mid-to-long range with an amplified Central Canada / N. High Plains trough vs a strong amplified NW Atlantic / Canadian Maritimes ridge.
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Recon found a closed circulation in 90L but the wind obs are rather weak, around 20-25 kts at best. The circulation does have organized banding in the low-level cloud field, but considering that convection is still rather unimpressive overall at present, NHC may hold off on classification for now. It'll be close.
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Interesting thread on downstream pattern in the mid-to-longe range. Possible TUTT developing over the central Atlantic that would support suppression of CV and MDR development; however, caveats with strong Canadian Maritimes ridging (this has been touched upon the last few days) in place. Essentially anything weak due to the negative influences of shear and subsidence that survives to 60ºW could potentially move into a more favorable environment; furthermore with a block in place, this would increase risk to the SE and ECONUS as systems would be driven between to two large scale synoptic features. Plenty of time to watch this evolve. Interestingly, the EPS and GEFS ensembles still show a ramp up in MDR activity the second week of September and peak. I'd imagine anything far east would be steered into the central Atlantic but anything that remains weak would slip under a rather strong NW Atlantic Ridge in such a pattern.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no closed circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 2. An area of low pressure is located about 135 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. This system continues to become better organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northeastward, near but offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States and then away from land. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or two. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Blake
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AF305 is en route to 90L and should reach the system around 3 PM EDT. Should have a better idea of what's going on at the surface. Recon is scheduled for 99L tomorrow if deemed necessary.
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@ldub23 be out in the Atlantic MDR like...
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Category 3, 110 kts, Typhoon Maysak is approaching the islands of Kumejima, Japan, in the Okinawa prefecture. It might intensify a little more to become a Category 4 by landfall. James Reynolds is there documenting. -
Likewise visible also suggests 90L has a closed low level circulation. Just needs increased convection to get classified though recon could find winds sufficient for a TD sooner. This probably gets a name by tomorrow.
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Visible suggests a better surface circulation than last night. Still needs better centralized convection to get a vort to ramp up however 99L is likely nearing classification. Perhaps by 5 pm?
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Despite its fast motion, 99L appears to be organizing the past few hours. There is curved banding in the south and east envelope with convection. Near the center of the broad circulation, convective pulsing is percolating. This should help tighten a vorticity maximum and TD15 should get classifed soon thereafter by this evening. I think this does develop and makes landfall as a named storm. It is hauling through. If it can develop by this evening, it will have a shot at hurricane intensity prior to landfall, otherwise it may run out of time.
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Seriously, if something significant does advance west out if the MDR, that has ECONUS landfall written all over it.
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That pattern tho..
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It's actually performed better at TCG than the current operational. Yes, every once in a while a storm will form in the mid-range due to a feature in the pattern change. However, the current operationals are missing the mark too frequently on near-term TCG potential. Like 99L for example. The current para is the only one that has a TC. Perhaps that fails to occur and it misses the mark. But the operationals have chosen poorly with genesis environmental fields. We shall see.
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I left off the '1'. Spring 2021 is tentative for upgrade if there are no issues.
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Incorrect. That is the non-operational parallel GFS model that would become the GFS version 16 operational in 2021 if there are no hitches. It is still in experimental phase. The current operational GFS is version 15.
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99L in the eastern Caribbean is looking really healthy today. It is convectively active along the axis with notable southerly backside flow in the low levels. This probably does not yet have a closed circulation at the surface, but the cloud pattern is suggestive for mid level cyclonic turning. There is a building upper 200 hPa anticyclone over the Caribbean and sufficient easterly 800 hPa moisture surge surrounding 99L's envelope. Shear is nil through its potential westward track. If the disturbance manages to close off a surface vortex, it has the ingredients to intensify.
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It's absolutely possible but a rarer solution. You need a very strong NS/NF/Greenland maritime block and general troughness N. Plains and Central Canada. Takes a lot of luck (or bad luck depending on perspective) to get that setup and a TC in the right position, but it does occur. Anyone remember Hazel? Again, not saying this is going to happen, but SSTs off the SE are still way above normal. Isaias did little to upwell and the disturbance forecast to move ENE out into the Atlantic won't be strong enough to put much of a dent in the thermocline. Also similar setups have been Hugo and Isabel, though Isabel was a large mess by the time it got up to the Carolinas. You also need a favorable upper environment and mitigatable shear, which is also more difficult at that latitude. So it takes more than just the maritime block. But we can get NW moving systems off the SE to Outer banks and have them reach the Great Lakes region.
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We've got an orange and two lemons now. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 3. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States early next week. Additional subsequent development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Beven
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