mitchnick

Gem at the end is tasty.

You're wishing my life away!

Early on it was too dry. They all came around at the end, some too much. Lol

Remember how dry the Rgem was for us over the weekend? It was the driest until the end when it finally awoke.

Changes on both Nams and the Hrrr ocurr during the first 24 hours and continue thereafter. I agree with being skeptical, but we're not relying on change to start 48hrs+ this time.

Heisey, I agree it has done well inside 4-5 days, but it has jumped all around beyond day 10, less so between 7-10. The Eps have done a very good job with the pattern since mid-November, if not excellent. Terpeast, you're are spot on with the MJO. I thought the JMA had a decent last year, but this year Gefs and Eps have definitely done better. Eps weeklies as of yesterday's run were only modestly AN for claround the first half of February, with N to AN precip. I think we can score the first half, if only modestly.

Here's Pivotal's Kuchera 3K

3k looking better too but not finished.

It is.

Killing northern stream definitely the ticket. Let's hope other modeling joins the party.

Much better relatively speaking what it was.

Ok https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025010912&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

12z Nam has 1006 slp in eastern TN while 0z was 1008. 06 in between.

Nam doing the same thing as Hrrr thru 24hrs. Will it matter? We'll see in a few.

That's better than most, but it's the Hrrr.

It's been messing up the southern stream, so I would expect an improvement in precip. Look at the larger area of yellow and how it's further north on that loop. But we all know, there could always be something else to wreck it. Lol

Hate to mention the Hrrr, but it's weakening the northern vert over the last 3 6hr runs.

That's our MLK surprise.

It's credible this year because it screws NE.

Accumulating snows with it.

18z AI looks completely different around that time frame this run than the 12z run. Like I said, it's jumpy too post 240hrs.

18z Eps

Hey that's fine, but I was just responding to Ga's rundown of today's weeklies not to anyone or anything else. The weeklies have done very well with temps this winter. And as Michsnowfreak posted, it's hard to believe it'll get warm until it actually occurs. As such, I feel until they're wrong, just run with them. Otoh, a little above normal temps with normal or above precip in February around here would work for snow, so I'm OK with the pattern change the weeklies are showing.

They also muted BIG time the warmup in the east for weeks 5 and 6 (early February. )