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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    That I was also thinking, but you can't make them, so you have to turn what should be simple into something more if you want to be more exacting.
  2. mitchnick
    I was referring to using last 20 years with the Ensembles and 1991-2020 with the Control. I think they should all be the same, whatever period they want to use.
  3. mitchnick
    That's 1991-2020. Lots of bait and switch going on at that site it seems.
  4. mitchnick
    That explains how the Control can come up with all that snowfall. Lol
  5. mitchnick
    Wondering the same. Here's Pivotal, but it uses median, which is closer to WxBell in coverage of anomalies.
  6. mitchnick
    Lol. Even TT don't agree with WxBell.
  7. mitchnick
    Are the weeklies the same as Extended Ensembles?
  8. mitchnick
    I figured something had to be different. I believed that the Euro weeklies and Euro Extended Ensembles were the same product. But when JI posted a map from WxBell similar to yours, I made a post requesting anyone who knew with certainty if the two were the same product to let me know, but no one responded. If they are the same, I think we have to trust the Euro site over WxBell. Maybe someone who knows answer my question whether the weeklies and Extended Ensembles are the same product.
  9. mitchnick
    This is the weeklies forecast I use directly from the Euro site out daily. Here's a link to yesterday's run. Is yours different than this? https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501200000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000
  10. mitchnick
    6z AI sticking with a now light snow event for Monday 27th. Looks like snow from DC north providing surface temps aren't quite as warm as depicted by the AI. Looks like mid 30's verbatim. The 2nd threat on next Thursday starts too warm but "might" turn to snow based on crummy maps. End of the run has a cold front with what looks like a Miller B that misses us.
  11. mitchnick
    I should add that at this range before Sunday's event, the AI had those kind of qpf numbers so don't assume it's married to those amounts.
  12. mitchnick
    AI has it but puts it further south. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2025012100&fh=174
  13. mitchnick
    York Airport down to -10 before midnight and -9 after. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html
  14. mitchnick
    Don't know if anyone has looked closely, but modeling is back to looking warm the start of February. Honestly, I think it's inevitable. Weeklies went back to the warm look for every week in February after a step back from it yesterday. We'll see. Hopefully models are missing something...like weenie desires.
  15. mitchnick
    18z AI looks better with a little more qpf and colder 850 temps. Surface temps somewhere between 0-4C, but 850's are around -4C. So I wouldn't worry about it. Also comes in on Monday and not Tuesday. 2nd event is wetter but a little too warm for snow. Early on that one however.
  16. mitchnick
    Can someone who knows with certainty tell me the difference between the extended Eps and Eps weeklies, if there is a difference? Thank you. @brooklynwx99 ?
  17. mitchnick
    Start OK, warm to being close, then cool. Maybe some mix for part of it.
  18. mitchnick
    1st event looks wetter. AI
  19. mitchnick
    I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look?
  20. mitchnick
    234hrs Gfs is getting ready for an arctic dump into the Conus. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025012012&fh=228&dpdt=&mc=&r=na&p=850th&m=gfs
  21. mitchnick
    Same idea as the AI, but a little wetter and 12hrs later. Close enough.
  22. mitchnick
    We have cold and precip on Monday plus, obviously, it's sooner so less opportunity to fail. I'd really like to see this one juice up in case #2 fails.
  23. mitchnick
    You missed a spot.
  24. mitchnick
    Looks like overrunning because the precip hits an east-west wall of -4C or less 850's.
  25. mitchnick
    @Heisy 6z AI looks to be getting more interested on Monday/Tuesday next week. Still light precip with suppression of heavier stuff. But I think that's not far from a moderate event. 30/31st looks a little warm but may end as snow. This still has big upside potential imho if we get the temps to cooperate as the AI is showing a strong bowling ball vort moving east with redevelopment off the coast. Fingers crossed. EDIT: Big cold dump from Canada at the end of the run.
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