mitchnick

18z Euro AI remains essentially the same. Wish the operational was as rock steady.

Cold front into western PA. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&center=39.4473115,-79.941553&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true

Never, ever take me seriously. Seriously

Joke, or a reasonable facsimile thereof!

It's the Mid Atlantic forum. Shouldn't this be in Banter?

A p.s. to my post above. Even though Enso 3.4 is not an official Niña, and probably won't be, a Niña background state exists across the N Hemisphere in many respects. We need the Niña background state to bug out fast if we want a shot in February imho. The silver lining is, as I and others have mentioned, there's a good chance we get another shot at cold in March as is typical for Niñas. It's just harder to get cold enough so we have those pesky boundary temp issues.

Euro weeklies, after being off and on about it, have decided to go AN starting right after the start of February right thru until the end. Obviously, the chance that it's correct isn't that high...BUT, unlike prior years, they have been pretty darn good with the duration and extent of the cold since mid-Nov this year. So assuming their accuracy continues, we need to score over the next 2-3 weeks because it will be getting tough after that. That said, the AN range they have us in is between 1-3C, which isn't a blowtorch, but with a ridge painted around the eastern, southern, and western borders of the Conus, it's not conducive to a decent snow pattern. A link to the 5H pattern for those interested is below. It is for "N America." If you change the view to "North Pole," you can see how a stripe of AN heights is painted around almost the entire N Hemisphere. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

Cansips has next Friday fwiw.

Rgem at 84 hrs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025011818&fh=84&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Considering the Canadians had their forecast from probably 3 days ago and will probably be what, 25-35 miles, north of reality is imho a great forecast.

That's what you get when all you have is a ruler to make a map.

Then it must be right.

Hair better on Rgem https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011818&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=rdps

At 21hrs, Heights about 20 miles south of 12z run on 18z Rgem.

12z AI qpf https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025011812&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

No reduction in qpf on 12z AI https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025011812&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

It's virtually over by then.

Forget the 2 Nam delinquents and go with the 15z Rap.

42hr 2 meter temp anomalies off the 12z Eps. Anyone remember seeing a surface temp anomaly map for the Conus like this one?

I'd like to here @psuhoffman take on the end of the month once WxBell, TT, update with real maps.

Looking like globals and other short term modeling...except the Nam twins, of course. It's like they've been in jail for years and can't assimilate.

After living south of Baltimore by a few miles for most of my life, I still instinctively look there first and get that feeling in the pit of my stomach seeing that map. Oy it's just soooo different mentally not having to deal with that depression. Lol Of course, that instinctively backfired last Monday when they got almost double mby. Lol Can't win in this hobby.

No. There are a couple shots of precip, but they look like fronts. There is a warmup or 2 between now and February, but nothing that bad except for maybe a day or 2? Hard to tell until TT and Pivotal update in the next 30-40 minutes. Again, I could be off on my opinion as to precip type and I'm focusing on the Mid Atlantic so areas to the north and west would be colder.

Euro AI in lala land 1/31-2/1 looks like a big deal with some precip issues but still decent snow. Sorta reminds me of some big events.

No. I'm just looking at 6 hour panels beginning with the snow.