mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I was all in on the near super Niña the Cansips was advertising in the Spring to hopefully negate some of the heat in the western Pacific, but then everything started stepping back from that, except for the Euro that never bought into it. I agree that a moderate Niña, at least, would likely result in a better winter for most on the east coast. Unfortunately, the Ventrice 850 wind anomaly plot is the GFS, and it's hard to have a lot of faith in the GFS...ever. Time will tell, but even if that 2 week prog turns out pretty good, and I hope it does, we need to maintain those 850 anomalies for months to come if we want to reach a legit tri-monthly moderate Niña. I'd feel a whole lot better if the Euro was on board because this month's update was not too encouraging for a moderate Niña. Additionally, I feel we need the ONI and RONI to couple better if we want a moderate Niña to deliver this winter.
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I think Michsnowfreak will be putting all of us in tears this year. AN precip is a near guarantee for him with BN temps a better than even bet. Hopefully, I can scratch out at least 20", which would only be 2/3 of average. 20/21 was the last year time at or AN here.
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She asked about the Atlantic, and that's what he responded to and that which my comment was directed. Warm water off Japan this winter is likely a given unless tropical systems were to go on steroids.
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Meh, Ben Noll....what a hypster. Yes Ana, it's boiling hot at +1-1.2C. Look at the graph.
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Another .2" since my oast report of 3.5", so 3.7" since yesterday morning plus the 3.5" from Wednesday. 7.2" for the week is the most I've had here since purchase in 9/19.
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Drove up to East Berlin and back west to Rt. 94, crossing the Conewago River a couple of times. It was way up as expected and I'll be surprised if it doesn't go over some of the bridges at the crest.
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DCA picked up 1.68" between 8 and 9am.
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Stopped for now. Only an additional inch to my 2.5". I don't buy it. I think the wind skewed the collection, but that's just my hunch.
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Just got brighter, but still pouring. Dry slot just to my west. Yay!
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I didn't dump my gauge this morning when it was ar 2.5". It only goes to 6", and I'm not sure if it holds all of this.
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And one of yesterday's runs of the Euro gave you next to nothing.
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I dodge that bullet, but now have my eye on the line further south. Meanwhile, it continues to pour.
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Moved to me west. But tornado in DC proper associated with the southern end of the same line.
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https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=CTP&wwa=tornado warning
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Tornado warning just to my ssw in Carrol County, MD. I think it heads just to my west.
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Funny. Models are always too far east or south with east coast storms on the long and medium range (even into the short range sometimes), especially in Niñas. Happens year round, but we usually only notice it in the winter.
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74dp out there is nasty. Oye...BWI is 77
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Bubbler, you getting crushed right now?
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Generally speaking, modeling did a lousy job with long and medium range forecasts, with only some short term forecasts being acceptable all things considered.
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A very surprising 2.5" overnight. I checked the radar going back 6.5 hours and looks like I was right under the train track of oranges and yellows. Time sensitive link. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-200-100-usa-rad
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I don't keep a running total, so I can't say. But you may be right.
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Meh...tornadoes can go to helicity.
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12z Rgem is 5-6" here. Hope that's wrong.
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The Euro has never been the same since the 2017 alleged "update", so I'm not sure how much it can be trusted.
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6z Euro is sorta nbd considering other modeling.
