mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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There have been so many upgrades/changes to the Euro suite, especially the addition of AI over the past year, I'm just not sure we can simply expect it to be too warm. And it's clearly a different model than it was in 2016. Whether it's better than before with recent upgrades, we'll soon find out. But I agree that a Niña background state with a La Nada ONI is a twist that will "possibly" take this out of a "cookie cutter" Niña winter forecast territory.
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I see only 2 La Nada ONI winters after a strong or super Niño....66/67 & 92/93. Give me either of those winters imby. I actually remember snows in 2/67 too...yes, I'm old. Larry, feel free to check my work as I should just defer to you in the first place. Lol https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
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I just checked the Euro site and the N-D-J forecast is out as well as the S-O-N forecast you posted. It's clearly a La Nada ONI.
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Yeah, but my job is to look for silver linings! Seriously, the warmer the Niña ONI the better imho as a warmer equatorial Pacific will always increase chances for STJ interaction despite a Niña background state, and that can't be a bad thing over the winter as a whole. At least, that's the way I see it.
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Thanks for your analysis. Always excellent. A couple of things cause me pause regarding the anticipated warm Enso forecast however. First, Euro never bit on a mod-strong Nina like just about all modeling was advertising and everything I've seen from other modeling is they are moving toward the Euro. Hence, the Euro raw numbers may deserve more weight this year despite other modeling. The second, and admittedly a real unknown, is that Euro model upgrades over the past year are using AI moreso than prior years. That "may" be a good reason to discount some of its old biases. We won't know for certain if it does until spring, but the fact that it has had the better forecast so far suggests maybe AI is making a difference already. Certainly some speculation on my part, but just some stuff that I'm considering giving me pause to expect the Euro is too warm with it ONI progs.
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That map would constitute a La Nada with BN ssta only at -.2 to -.5, and it's not even Enso 3.4. That said, it's a fall map, so that's why I used the plumes that go into 2025.
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What are you looking at to reach that conclusion? The new plumes look closer to a La Nada.
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No doubt the atmosphere is in a Nina state, but the MJO forcing is weak as reflected in the RMM plot COD. But despite the Nina state, the ssta haven't responded as of yet as most modeling predicted. So the question in my mind is "why not?" My wag is the lack of a strong, coherent MJO to support it. With modeling weakening the strength of the Nina vs. earlier runs, that suggests to me MJO forcing remains weak through the fall into winter. If that's the case, how does that change the picture, if at all, for winter in the east? The rest of all this Niña, PDO, etc. talk means nothing to me if it has nothing to do with winter! That's as far as my scientific curiosity goes to be honest. Lol
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Measley .12" this morning.
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.2" yesterday with a rogue cluster headed for me now. Probably went thru Bubbler digs already.
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Thanks Larry! But looking at the MJO progs this morning, you may want to wait because continued hibernation in the COD looks favored for most of July too.
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Saying the Wheeler plots are noisy (which means something different to everyone) doesn't mean the MJO hasn't been stuck in the COD, because it has. Nothing to dispute there. Bluewave's map is a day 7 forecast that may or may not be right, and NOT actual VP anomalies. That said, to me, there's a bit of a disconnect between VP anomalies and the lack of an active MJO/-PDO as I would have thought we would be seeing action in 4-6 on RMM plots. Maybe that'll change, but it makes me wonder if something else is going on.
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Rn+ imby now.
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Down in Martinsburg WV seeing how the other half lives and I saw the best virga I've ever seen. Unfortunately, I was driving, so no pics. Then I drove through it and that was one of the most intense, compact T-storms I've driven through. This place reminds me of Hanover actually with its restaurants and shopping.
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Well, I'm not so sure about your MJO 4-6 prediction. It's been stuck in the COD for a long stretch and the more reliable modeling has it visiting 4-6 briefly before hibernating back into the COD. It's early, I know, but this has been an uncharacteristically long stretch in the COD with more time in it to come, so nothing's locked in yet imho.
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The question becomes if the ONI stays weakish and the warmth in Enso 4 persists thru fall into winter while holding on to a Niña atmosphere, what will that mean for winter in the east? I don't know, but if the juice out west in the equatorial Pac holds, it has got to be better news than a traditional Modoki mod-strong Nina imh wag.
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Agree. I am not yet convinced this winter north of 40N is shot. Further south gets tougher with every mile you go. But all Niñas have periods cold enough to snow, and the backing off of the Niña's strength by Cansips and the Cfs2 have come with colder temps. Still too early to say anything is a lock, but that's not to say a decent winter won't be a struggle.
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I don't know if anyone took a look at the Cansips temps for Dec-Mar, but it's pretty darn cold up north. Caveats are that it's quite a change from last month's run and the 500mb anomalies are suggestive of something warmer.
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It's in on Tropical Tidbits. Niña is weaker than last month. December the coldest month. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2024070100&fh=5
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Decent breeze out there with nice gusts as well. If only it was September.
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Put it back in.
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1.6" on the dot for the day/overnight. Pretty soupy feeling out there this morning.
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Torrential rain now but no wind of consequence thankfully.
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Thunder has begun.
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I think I'll escape any torrential stuff, but that stuff developing in the WV panhandle looks aimed right at me for now. Already lightening up some.
