rjvanals

NAM long range isn’t promising for Sunday

Have a nice car topper here in Potomac

Some flurries in Potomac

GFS has the bowling ball back off SOCAL

I got to 46 in Potomac so not surprised by DCA reading

Canadian has been performing best recently imo did well on the Monday system and was showing a modest hit for last night in the mid range

Canadian system looks like snow to a mix S/E of 95

1/3-.75” 1/6- 8.25” 1/11- 2” Season: 11”

Tougher to track the snow progress via webcams since we actually have snowcover going into a storm

It's a bit of a myth most places up north never close for snow. The reason is these areas are more rural where snow is easier to manage because there are fewer roads to clear. In urban areas like Syracuse, despite being used to receiving heavy snow, clearing roads is just harder due to higher traffic, narrower streets, and hilly terrain. As a result, schools do close in the Syracuse metro area if it's still snowing and they've received more than ~6" while places north of there are open despite getting a heavier snowfall.

RGEM has been getting slightly wetter each run and ICON would support 1 to MAYBE 2 inches across the area

I'd be thrilled if we can get that; the trend is not our friend at this point

ICON and RGEM shred any precip before it gets to DC

ICON has a nice DC snow hole

While this system is on life support in terms of a significant snow for the area, it’s still pretty impressive to see the skill both of the long range models and posters who identified the 10-11th as a major storm threat over 2 weeks ago

If the GFS is right we're only ~80 hours from the first flakes from this storm so it's getting late kinda early if we want big changes

ICON Ensemble is further NW

ICON is worse than 12Z

GEFS is still bullish for a warning level event Saturday

It was a click bait headline as the post went through all the different model simulations

Ended up w 8.3 in Potomac. Fun storm w snow for almost 24 hours and no temp worries

It’s gonna suck when the GFS is out to lunch per usual about this weekends phantom HECS

Euro Weeklies look decent imo through the end of the month and we warm up but don't torch into February

Looking at the Friday night model runs of the 3 major globals the Canadian did best, with the GFS being to far north w the best snow and the Euro doing ok in northern VA but was to snowy down towards Richmond

NAM's don't seem that enthused about tonight