rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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FWIW the HRRR continues to trend a bit colder close to the metros
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Looking at the HRRR we just need a model bust of 1-2f colder at ~850 for a decent thump of snow in the immediate NW suburbs
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Surface temps while a problem isn’t the biggest issue. The models have consistently had us dropping to near freezing but rising just enough as the precip arrives especially between 700 and 850mb for it to be rain
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Both NAMs continue to hate this system and insist we torch at 850
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Looks like a quick C-2” across the metros w a quicker than expected transition to sleet then cold rain while we get snow pics from our NW friends
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Snow/sleet in Potomac
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BWI: 4.3” DCA: 2.8” IAD: 6.1” RIC: 7.1” SBY: 11.1”
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Flurries in Potomac
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That 10 foot rise on Sligo Creek is impressive/scary
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Seems like some positive lightning strikes behind the main w the thunder shaking my house a few times
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Normally we need low dewpoints heading into a event but this time it's killing our chances of seeing anything measurable
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RGEM is a touch north and gets snow close to DC
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ICON is no good
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The NAM gives Salisbury 18 inches the Euro gives it 2 wonder what will be right
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NAM would be wrong even if it was in cm's
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When has the NAM ever been wrong on such short leads
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max snow on this Euro run was 7 inches lol
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I'm not sure why we have such a pocket of dry air as soon as your north of the Potomac coming into the event compared to everywhere else on the East Coast
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Pivotal/Weatherbell/TropicalTidbits are just trying to get site visits up w the NAM run
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The only thing about this winter that irks me is we JUST missed two major snowstorms on 1/10 and 2/20 by such minor nuances that applying the butterfly effect we didn't need much for a great winter
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Yeah it's not normal but mostly just bad luck for your backyard since you've had chances but they've all underperformed for various small scale reasons
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Any winter DCA gets multiple 6 inch plus events is a good winter imo
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Yeah and far less weak systems; the OP was on the far western part of the Ensembles run and much stronger
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Here's a few Euro ensemble runs from when we had the great snow maps with the OP but warning signs when looking under the hood
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Flipping back through the ensembles one warning sign should have been DC maxed out at 90% showing greater than 1 inch and ~50% of 4 inch plus; the means looked great due to some huge hits but some simulations showed this outcome
